Dear Investors of Palm Oil Stocks,

Calvin very happy for all Happy Holders of Palm oil shares as we are going into a Once A Century Super Bull Run for Palm Oil shares at long last

Why? What is the basis for being so optimistic & sanguine

Please read here in this Content page as well as further posts in comments page below later

See this news from Star Today

Malaysia records higher exports, trade surplus in January

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's trade exports continued to expand, rising 23.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM110.73bil in January 2022 on the back of double-digit growth in shipments to major trading partners Asean, China, the US and the EU.

In a statement, the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) said exports recorded double-digit expansion for a sixth consecutive month since August 2021, underpinned by electrical and electronic products and palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products.
 

The higher export figure was in tandem with a 24.8% jump in overall trade to RM203.05bil and a 10.9% higher trade surplus of RM18.4bil from a year earlier. The country's imports grew 26.4% to RM92.32bil.

Miti reported that compared to the preceding month of December 2021, trade, exports, imports and trade surplus fell 6.2%, 10.6%, 0.6% and 40.6% respectively due to the high base effect and seasonal factors following the new year holidays.

The ministry said all the major sectors recorded double-digit y-o-y expansion in January.

Agriculture goods saw the biggest percentage gain of 75.6% to RM8.77bil while exports of manufactured good grew 19.3% to RM94.67bil.

"E&E products, manufactures of metal, petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, palm oil-based manufactured products as well as machinery, equipment and parts each posted over RM1bil increase in exports," said Miti.

Meanwhile, exports of agriculture goods (7.9% share) surged by 75.6% to RM8.77bil and exports of mining goods edged 38.4% higher to RM6.82bil on the back of higher exports of liquefied natural gas.

For imports, intermediate goods jumped 28.3% to RM50.52bil while capital goods rose 37.7% to RM9.97bil and consumption good climbed 32% to RM8.63bil.

Trade surplus was 23.5% (YoY) Year on Year

But see this

Agriculture goods saw the biggest percentage gain of 75.6% to RM8.77bil

At 75.6% Gain but Production of Palm oil has decreased due to lack of fruit harvesters

What then is the reason for Profit Skyrocketing Up?

See the answer

The Answer is March Fcpo 2022 has reached the Amazing Price of Rm6,015 per metric ton

In the previous bullrun years of 2008, 2012, 2014 Cpo highest achieved was Rm4,000

So at current price Cpo has broken into New World Record above 50% Extra compared to its last Bull Run

How long will these High Prices last?

That will be the Most Vital Question towering all other Questions.

JP Morgan thinks it will last for at least two years

But how high will be the Prices?

Will it be above Rm5,000 to Rm5,500 per ton or higher or as some local analyst think Cpo prices will retrace down below Rm5,000 to Rm4,300 or lower?

Calvin thinks there is HIGH CHANCE CPO PRICES WILL STAY ABOVE RM5,000 TO RM6,000 PER TON (OR EVEN HIGHER) FOR ALL OF 2022 TILL DECEMBER 2022 AND POSSIBLY RIGHT THROUGH YEAR 2023 DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

1) RIVER IN THE SKY (AMAZON FOREST DESTROYED BY CHINA BUYING CHEAP LOGS FROM AMAZON

See separate post under comment section

2) RIVER IN THE SKY UNLEASED THE FURY OF OVER 10 TORNADOES OVER CHINA IN YEAR 2020

CAISING CHINA PANIC BUY AND HOARDING FOOD GRAIN LIKE NEVER BEFORE (CHINA REMEMBERS THE HORROR OF THE FAMINE YEARS OF THE 1960s

3) CANADA CANOLA CROP  FAILED LAST SUMMER IN 2021 (CANOLA OIL NOW OVER 50% ABOVE ITS RECORD HIGH OF USD600 TO TRADE AT USD1,000 

NOT ENOUGH CANOLA OIL TILL NEXT HARVEST FROM CANADA END 2022

4) DRY WEATHER IN SOUTH AMERICA IMPACT SOYBEAN HARVEST

VERY HIGH SOYBEAN PRICES ABOVE USD16.00 NOW

5) MALAYSIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION DROPPED DUE TO LACK OF INDON LABOURERS

6) INDONESIA MANDATES 20% OF COOKING OIL TO BE SOLD AT LOWER RATE FOR DOMESTIC USERS

7) RISE OF BIODISEL USE BY EXTRA 10% BY REFINERIES FROM USA 

8) CRUDE OIL RECOVERS ABOVE USD90 MADE BIODISEL USE VIABLE

ALL THESE ARE CATALYSTS FOR THE MOST POWERFUL PALM OIL SUPERBULL YET AHEAD

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager

One more thing to keep in mind

When Gloves entered Superbull in year 2020 it was halted by the Rise of China's New Gloves factories in price war

Setting up new glove factories only take 3 to 4 months in China

Malaysia gloves got clobbered by fierce price war

The same cannot be said about Palm oil.

There is a High "TIME BARRIER" TO PALM OIL AS IT TAKES AT LEAST 4 YEARS TO PLANT AND PRODUCE THE FIRST DROP OF PALM OIL

SO THERE IS NO VISIBLE DANGER OF COMPETITION TILL YEAR 2026 EVEN IF CHINA OR INDIA SHOULD START PLANTING PALM OIL TODAY