Dear Investors of i3 Forum
There is a Knee jerk reaction to Palm oil Cpo sudden sell down due to Uplift of Indon Pan Oil Export ban
So Cpo future has dropped below the Rm5,000 barrier
However, it is still too early to tell if CPOPrices will remain below Rm5000 or drop lower or rebound up again in coming weeks
As we know there are 3 other Vege Oil that competes against Palm oil, namely Canola/Rapeseed oil, Soyoil & Sunflower seed oil
Plus the impact on Biofuel from high Crude oil prices as well
Let's take a look at them all
1) CANOLA OIL (As we know not until Oct 2022 will there be a next harvest (if any) from Canada after the Canola crop failure of last year due to drought
Canola oil is still above USD1000 (was Usd600 last world record) See post on comment page to view Canola price chart for proof
So Canola oil still up by 66% above LAST WORLD RECORD
Unless Canola oil also fall below USD600 then palm oil can fall below Rm4,000 (last record)
2) Soyoil up from US 30 sen a lb to over Us70 sen a lb (Unless Soyoil falls to Us 40 sen a lb Palm oil Cpo should be well supported
3) SUNFLOWER OIL
Ukraine & Russia exports 70% of World Sunflower oil
With War decimating Sunflower Crops & Export Embargo on Russia Prices of Sunflower Oil will not be cheap
4) BRENT CRUDE IS OVER USD110 (We see that in price rise of Ron 97 petrol at the Pump to over Rm4.50 a litre (Was Rm2.70)
So The Incentive to Use Soybean, Canola & Palm oil as biodisel will increase
WATCH ALL THESE 4 VERY VERY CAREFULLY IN WEEKS AHEAD
IF THEY DON'T CRASH THEN WE WILL SEE PALM OIL MAINTAIN OR EVEN REBOUND UP AGAIN
NOW THE UPLIFT OF INDON PALM OIL BAN WILL BENEFIT THOSE MALAYSIA PALM OIL COMPANIES WITH OPERATIONS IN INDONESIA
SIMEDARBY PLANT WILL BENEFIT
IOI CORP HAS A PALM OIL MILL WORTH RM30.5 MILLIONS IN WEST KALIMANTAN WILL BENEFIT
TSH RESOURCES WITH PALM OIL MILLS LOCATED IN EAST KALIMANTAN, WEST KALIMANTAN & SUMATRA WILL BENEFIT
Indonesian farmers stage protests against palm oil export ban
In a statement, the smallholder farmer’s group Apkasindo said since the announcement of the export ban the price of palm fruit had dropped 70% below the floor price set by regional authorities.
Meanwhile, Apkasindo estimated that at least 25% of palm oil mills has stopped buying palm fruit from independent farmers.
AS WE KNOW TSH HAS 4 PALM OIL MILLS WITH STORAGE TANKS NOW FULL TO THE BRIM WITH CPO (BOUGHT AT DISCOUNT) AND THE UPLIFT OF PALM OIL EXPORT IS TIMELY AND WILL BENEFIT IT
TSH ALREADY GOT ANOTHER 3.9 SEN PROFIT NOT RECOGNISED YET IN MAY 2022 RESULTS
SO TOGETHER WITH GOOD PALM OIL SALE & THIS 3.9 SEN RESIDUAL PROFIT FROM SABAH ESTATES DISPOSAL
TSH SHOULD REPORT A GOOD QUARTER FOR AUGUST 2022 RESULTS
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager
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Due to Export ban Small holders selling Palm fruit at 70% to Mills
https://www.malaysianow.com/out-there-now/2022/05/17/indonesian-farmers-stage-protests-against-palm-oil-export-ban/
2022-06-20 22:58
if Tsh managed to get palm fruit at 70% discount then the ban could be a blessing in disguise
2022-06-20 23:09
CPO price is RM4890 at lunch time so it's not knee jerk as you have mentioned
2022-06-21 14:17
Dalian july22 soyoil CNY11088=Rm7285
Dalian july22 RBD palm olein CNY10694=Rm7026
CZCE july rapeseed oil CNY13864-Rm9109
No point local planters complain labor shortage when they sell at such discounts based on wrong and conflicted advice of that Indian oil trader DM
2022-06-21 15:47
cumcumshot
Calvin probably stuck $$ in the palm oil stocks.
2022-06-20 22:40