THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

THE IMPLICATIONS & RAMIFICATIONS OF INDON UPLIFT PALM OIL EXPORTS ON SIMEPLANT, IOI CORP & TSH RESOURCES, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 20 Jun 2022, 10:25 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Investors of i3 Forum

There is a Knee jerk reaction to Palm oil Cpo sudden sell down due to Uplift of Indon Pan Oil Export ban

So Cpo future has dropped below the Rm5,000 barrier

However, it is still too early to tell if CPOPrices will remain below Rm5000 or drop lower or rebound up again in coming weeks

 

As we know there are 3 other Vege Oil that  competes against Palm oil, namely Canola/Rapeseed oil, Soyoil & Sunflower seed oil

Plus the impact on Biofuel from high Crude oil prices as well

 

Let's take a look at them all

1) CANOLA OIL (As we know not until Oct 2022 will there be a next harvest (if any) from Canada after the Canola crop failure of last year due to drought

 

Canola oil is still above USD1000 (was Usd600 last world record) See post on comment page to view Canola price chart for proof

So Canola oil still up by 66% above LAST WORLD RECORD

Unless Canola oil also fall below USD600 then palm oil can fall below Rm4,000 (last record)

 

2) Soyoil up from US 30 sen a lb to over Us70 sen a lb (Unless Soyoil falls to Us 40 sen a lb Palm oil Cpo should be well supported

 

3) SUNFLOWER OIL

Ukraine & Russia exports 70% of World Sunflower oil

With War decimating Sunflower Crops & Export Embargo on Russia Prices of Sunflower Oil will not be cheap

4) BRENT CRUDE IS OVER USD110 (We see that in price rise of Ron 97 petrol at the Pump to over Rm4.50 a litre (Was Rm2.70)

So The Incentive to Use Soybean, Canola & Palm oil as biodisel will increase

 

WATCH ALL THESE 4 VERY VERY CAREFULLY IN WEEKS AHEAD

IF THEY DON'T CRASH THEN WE WILL SEE PALM OIL MAINTAIN OR EVEN REBOUND UP AGAIN

 

NOW THE UPLIFT OF INDON PALM OIL BAN WILL BENEFIT THOSE MALAYSIA PALM OIL COMPANIES WITH OPERATIONS IN INDONESIA

SIMEDARBY PLANT WILL BENEFIT

IOI CORP HAS A PALM OIL MILL WORTH RM30.5 MILLIONS IN WEST KALIMANTAN WILL BENEFIT

TSH RESOURCES WITH PALM OIL MILLS LOCATED IN EAST KALIMANTAN, WEST KALIMANTAN & SUMATRA WILL BENEFIT

 



Indonesian farmers stage protests against palm oil export ban

In a statement, the smallholder farmer’s group Apkasindo said since the announcement of the export ban the price of palm fruit had dropped 70% below the floor price set by regional authorities.

Meanwhile, Apkasindo estimated that at least 25% of palm oil mills has stopped buying palm fruit from independent farmers.

 

AS WE KNOW TSH HAS 4 PALM OIL MILLS WITH STORAGE TANKS NOW FULL TO THE BRIM WITH CPO (BOUGHT AT DISCOUNT) AND THE UPLIFT OF PALM OIL EXPORT IS TIMELY AND WILL BENEFIT IT

 

TSH ALREADY GOT ANOTHER 3.9 SEN PROFIT NOT RECOGNISED YET IN MAY 2022 RESULTS

SO TOGETHER WITH GOOD PALM OIL SALE & THIS 3.9 SEN RESIDUAL PROFIT FROM SABAH ESTATES DISPOSAL

TSH SHOULD REPORT A GOOD QUARTER FOR AUGUST 2022 RESULTS

 

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 9 of 9 comments

cumcumshot

Calvin probably stuck $$ in the palm oil stocks.

1 month ago

calvintaneng

See Canola/Rapeseed OIl Price Chart (Click on 25Y Button See full history)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/canola

Canola oil was USD600 last world record & now up 66%

Click on 25 Year Button

In tandem Cpo last record was Rm4000 & if we benchmark Cpo to Canola

Then it should be Rm4000 X 66% more or RM6,640

So If canola does not fall back below USD600 then Cpo should be well supported above Rm4000 which was the last World Record

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Due to Export ban Small holders selling Palm fruit at 70% to Mills

https://www.malaysianow.com/out-there-now/2022/05/17/indonesian-farmer...

1 month ago

calvintaneng

if Tsh managed to get palm fruit at 70% discount then the ban could be a blessing in disguise

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Fcpo yester night rebounded above Rm5, 000

Since cost of cpo productionis is Rm1800 to Rm2000 even if Cpo at Rm4000 the gross profit will be 100%

Very few businesses now can command even 20% profit

1 month ago

vision912

CPO price is RM4890 at lunch time so it's not knee jerk as you have mentioned

1 month ago

joerakmo

Dalian july22 soyoil CNY11088=Rm7285
Dalian july22 RBD palm olein CNY10694=Rm7026
CZCE july rapeseed oil CNY13864-Rm9109

No point local planters complain labor shortage when they sell at such discounts based on wrong and conflicted advice of that Indian oil trader DM

1 month ago

calvintaneng

After the small surplus of palm oil melts away by an 8 billion hungry world population we will see the real prices of Cpo emerge

if Canola oil, sunflower oil, soyoil and Brent oil didn't crash then palm oil Cpo price will maintain or rebound up

With world pouplation of 8 billion people and additional increase of 80 million per year (1% out of 8 billion people) plus no more conversion of forest lands to palm oil

the demand for food and cooking oil will always increase

1 month ago

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