THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

TSH (Palm oil) Versus Frontken (Old Tech), Versus SfpTech (New Tech) Versus Supermax (Gloves) Compare & Contrast, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 22 Aug 2022, 09:09 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,684
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys

Results for Palm oil, Old & New Tech & Gloves are out this Qtr

Let us Compare their Results & Prices

 

1) TSH RESOURCES PALM OIL0

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Jun 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
424,413
307,414
761,762
551,495
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
80,467
64,713
196,315
103,693
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
71,165
48,199
177,864
74,648
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
57,335
39,715
153,810
60,499
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
4.15
2.88
11.14
4.38
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.2857
1.1892
 

we exoected a qtr from 3.99 sen left over from SAbah land sale 9BUT IT CAME IN AT 2.25 SEN

FFB UP QoQ but Down YoY due to replating

Cpo at record Rm6552 but there was impairments & high levy and loss through currency exchange

But all is not loss

In Balance sheet Net Borrowings of over Rm1 Billions now pared down to just above Rm800 Millions only

Sale p=of Bulugan lands for Cash Rm731.09 Millions 2/3 in 

And  Rm550 Millions will be used to further pare down loans. Plus TSH has Rm270 Cash makes it Rm820 Millions which means that all Debts will be finally cleared & TSH will be Debt free and able to start giving good dividends

 

Let's see

 

 

This Qtr earned 4.15 sen

Annualised 4.15 x 4 = 16.6 sem 

Note: We did not use last qtr 6.99 sen profit or else earnings will be higher & certainly if we included Nov 22 sen profit from staggered Bulugan land profit earnings will be much much higher

 

16.6 SEN WITH CURRENT PRICE OF TSH AT RM1.09

IS A YIELD OF 15.2 % OR MORE THAN 6x BANK FD AT 2.5%

P/E ONLY 6.56

 

IT TAKES ONLY 6.56 YEARS TO DOUBLE YOUR MONEY

 

2) FRONTKEN OLD TECH

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Jun 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
128,198
108,626
247,344
212,143
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
44,581
34,536
85,441
69,592
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
35,056
26,995
63,843
51,902
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
32,201
24,738
58,716
47,652
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
2.05
1.57
3.74
3.03
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
1.60
1.50
1.60
1.50
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.3300
0.320

 

FRONTKEN EARNED 2.05 SEN

ANNUALISED 2.05 SEN X 4 = 8.2 SEN

 

FRONTKEN PRICE RM2.68

ITS YIELD IS 3%

P/E IS 32.68

NOT CHEAP

 

 

3. SFP TECH (NEW TECH)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Jun 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
20,899
0
38,796
0
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
6,895
0
15,926
0
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
6,513
0
15,187
0
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
6,513
0
15,187
0
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
0.81
0.00
1.90
0.00
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.1900
0.0900
 

 

SFP TECH EARNED 0.81 SEN

ANNUALISED 0.81 X 4 = 3.24 SEN

PRICE IS RM1.10 

 

YIELD IS 2.9%

P/E IS 37.93

 

IT WILL TAKE 37.93 YEARS TO DOUBLE YOUR MONEY

 

4. SUPERMAX GLOVE

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Jun 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
300,226
1,875,488
2,687,227
7,164,186
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
29,174
1,231,217
1,070,251
5,019,993
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
32,281
1,015,432
771,077
3,929,944
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
33,054
962,526
732,429
3,816,717
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
1.25
37.08
27.70
147.03
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
3.00
15.00
11.00
31.80
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.8200
1.8200

Supermax earned 1.25 sen this qtr 

Annualised 1.25x4 = 5 sen

 

At 77.5 sen

 

The yield is 6.4 sen

or P/E 12.10

 

Supermax  has a cash hoard of Rm3 Billions which is worth Rm1.13 Cash per share

At current Value Supermax is seling below Cash

Only problem going forward is due to fierce competition due to rampant overproduction

However Supermax has commissioned several new glove lines in Malaysia and an investment of USD350 Millions (Rm1.54 Billions

over over Rm2 Billions in Total Glove expansion

 

From above we learnt that in just one year of EXTRAORDINARY GAINS SUPERMAX COULD MAKE BILLIONS

However it atttracted fierce competition from China New Glove players due to little barrier to entry

If can Supermax should halt expansion and conserve its Cash as Glove downturn could be prolonged

 

 

 

From above we can see that Palm oil currently earns the best and should CPO maintain above Rm4000 a ton Palm Oil Companies, too, can be Cash Hoard like Gloves but Palm oil has the added Barrier of HIGH TIME entry

 

It only takes 6 to 9 months  to set up New Glove Factories BUT IT WILL TAKE 6 TO 8 YEARS TO START A NEW PALM OIL PLANTATION                     

 

Further notes from TSH Qtr Reports & Comments

 

We quote from posted comments

 

Just read the balance sheet of TSH RESOURCES

VERY HEALTHY

BORROWINGS HAVE BEEN PARED DOWN BY OVER RM250 MILLIONS TO JUST ABOVE RM800 MILLIONS LEFT

CASH OVER RM250 MILLIONS PLUS RM550 MILLIONS OUT OF RM731.09 MILLIONS FROM BULUGAN LAND SALE WILL ADD UP TO OVER RM800 MILLIONS TO NEGATE ALL DEBTS

IN TWO OR MORE QTRS TSH WILL BE DEBT FREE AND ABLE TO START GIVING EITHER DIVIDEND OR CASH PAYOUT

See SANGUNIE COMMENTS EXTRACTED FROM QTR REPORT COMMENTS

 

Commentary on the prospects (refer Qtrly report)

CPO price has fallen sharply since May 2022 following Indonesia’s decision to remove the ban
on palm oil export and market concern over rising palm oil stockpiles. However, it appears to
have stabilise in recent times and is currently hovering at around RM4,000+ per MT. It is
anticipated that the CPO price will remain supported at current levels on the back of supply
concerns arising from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and softer production outlook for
soybean due to the return of La Nina in late 2022 and early 2023. Barring any unforeseen
circumstances, the Group is optimistic of achieving satisfactory performance for year 2022.
The Board also remains optimistic on the long term prospect of the palm oil industry.
Restrained hectarage growth in oil palm planting over the last few years due to RSPO
regulations and Indonesian Government’s moratorium on deforestation will have an impact over
the global palm oil supply. Global population and per capita income growth as well as the many
health qualities of palm oil are expected to drive greater demand for palm products. This augurs
well for the Group as palm products segment will remain the core contributor to the Group [rofit

 

 

TSh now Rm1.09

Our One Year Target Price Rm2.70

 

Best & Warmest regards

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 10 of 10 comments

calvintaneng

Earning progress of Tsh

May 2022
Eps 6.99 sen

Aug 2022
Eps 4.15 sen

Nov 2022
Projected 22 sen

2022-08-23 01:13

calvintaneng

Sale of Buligan lands not in time for Aug 2022 results as it is after June 2022

So projected 22 sen profit will be reported in Nov 2022 results

Total cash to pare down debts of over Rm800 millions will come from Rm550 millions set aside out of rm731. 09 millions

Tsh own cash rm270 millions

After all borrowings taken care of then Tsh will be a debt free entity and can follow Inno example of giving high dividends

2022-08-23 09:35

calvintaneng

When Tsh's debts all cleared the rm57 million or 4.15 sen profit this qtr can be given out as dividend like Innoplant

4.15 sen this qtr

Annualised 4.15 x4

16.6 sen

If 60% dividend from profit like bplant and hs plant

Then 16.6 sen x. 6
= 9.96 sen

At Rm1. 09

The yield is 9.1%

Comfortable 9.1% long term dividend while waiting for Kutai/Nusantara lands to further appreciate in value is best

2022-08-23 09:57

Picanto

hello calvin master, why use frontken and SFPtech? Can you help to calculate the PE using Unisem (old tech) and Cnergen (new tech)?

2022-08-23 10:05

calvintaneng

Picanto

I use these two techs because people who bought these two challenged Tsh in Forum discussion

2022-08-23 10:16

calvintaneng

unisem is a better managed tech co

Cnergen too new and it's profits (mostly receivables or IOUs must be careful )

2022-08-23 10:17

stockraider

Listen !
Just buy TSH at Rm 1.07 loh!
Very worth mah!

2022-08-23 11:31

calvintaneng

A PEAK INTO TSH FUTURE DIVIDEND YIELD AS IT EVOLVES INTO A DEBT FREE CASH RICH ENTITY LIKE INNOPLANT, Calvin Tan


https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2022-08-23-story-h1628071139-A_PEAK_INTO_TSH_FUTURE_DIVIDEND_YIELD_AS_IT_EVOLVES_INTO_A_DEBT_FREE_CA.jsp

2022-08-23 12:33

calvintaneng

bplant, simeplant, ioi corp and Thplant all giving dividends

Tsh will also join them giving dividends and more dividends

2022-08-23 20:14

calvintaneng

VERY GOOD NEWS FOR TSH
1. DIRECTOR TAN AIK PEN BOUGHT TSH NOW OVER 295 MILLION TSH SHARES

2. INNOPLANT DECLARED A 7 SEN DIVIDEND

TSH BEING TOP 2ND HOLDER OF INNO WITH 105 MILLION INNO SHARES WILL GET RM7.35 MILLIONS DIVIDEND FROM INNO


DIRECTOR OF TSH TAN AIK KIONG SITS AS CHAIRMAN OF INNO CAUSED INNO TO GIVE THE HIGHEST DIVIDEND AMONG PLANTATION STOCKS

NEXT YEAR TSH DEBT FREE CAN ALSO GIVE VERY GOOD DIVIDENDS

2022-08-24 21:07

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