THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
FCPO REBOUNDING ABOVE RM4000 BY STRONG FUNDAMENTAL WILL SEE PALM OIL BULL RUN RESUMPTION, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 23 Feb 2023, 10:26 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,792
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear fellow investors in i3 Forum
These are some fundamental support for Palm Oil bull run to resume
1) INDONESIA IMPLEMENTING B35 FROM B30
This will take up extra 2 million tonnes of Cpo from 11 Million Tonnes to 13 Million Tonnes
Total yearly Cpo production in Indonesia is 48 Million Tonnes
That means 27% of Cpo will now go into Biofuel
B35 now
B40 will come next
Longer term it will be B100
By then 37 million tonnes of 77% will go into biofuel leaving only 11 Million tonnes for Domestic Cooking oil needs
Will it be enough?
To put the policy change into perspective, the increase in the blending mandate is expected to increase domestic Indonesian biodiesel demand 18% from 11 million KL to 13 million KL, which translates into around 1.8mmt of extra palm oil (CPO) consumption in 2023. (assuming that the 13,000,000KL target is met).
USDA data on Indonesian biodiesel production, augmented with Mecardo estimates for 2023 on palm oil feedstock use are presented in figure 1, indicating that Indonesian domestic palm oil feedstock use could reach 12mmt, or 25% of gross Indonesian production in 2023.
Indonesia has plans to increase the biodiesel blending mandate to 40% (B40); and ran a series of road test trials on 12 of the most popular car models and brands of cars in Indonesia over a distance of 50,000 kilometres. However; the result was that 2 out of the 12 tested cars ran into problems of significance. Eddy Abdurrachaman, CEO of palm oil fund BPDPKS estimates that the introduction of the B40 standard could increase palm oil based fuels could increase by an additional 2 million KL to 15,000 KL.
2) INDONESIA AGAIN LIMIT CPO EXPORT DUE TO RAMADHAN
From now till May 2023 Indonesia will once again restrict export of Palm oil for Domestic Needs
And Fcpo has gone above Rm4200
3) Russia is cutting back Crude oil Production by 500,000 Barrels
This will shore up Crude Oil Prices & Will be good for Biofuel
All these are both short & long term support for Palm Oil Companies good profits
GOOD PROFITS?
Now FCPO Has Crossed Rm4200
In year 2019 Cpo was only Rm2200 and Cost of Cpo production then was Rm1400
Rm800 Gross profit then could only cover Bank loans & overheads - leaving little as Dividend payouts
Now CPO is Rm4200 & Cost of Cpo production is Rm2000 and dropping to Rm1800 since Fertilizer like Nitrogen has dropped by almost 80% from peak USD10.00 to about USD2.00 now
THAT MEANS PROFIT HAS ACCELERATED UP TO RM2400 CPO PER TON
That is 300% the Profit of Year 2019
NO WONDER THAT THESE TWO THINGS HAPPENED
INSIDERS/DIRECTORS OF PALM OIL CO ARE BUYING & LOADING UP
LOTS OF DIVIDENDS ARE BEING GIVEN & WILL STILL BE GIVEN OUT AS PALM OIL CO ARE ALL FLUSHED WITH CASH INFLOW
With Kind Regards
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 34 of 34 comments
While Cpo prices are rebounding Nitrogen Fertilizer from Natural Gas has dropped by more than 75% from USD10.00 to below USD2.50
SEE AND STUDY VERY VERY CAREFULLY BY CLICKING ON ALL BUTTON TO "SEE"
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
2023-02-23 22:40
After Indonesia banned export of Nickel, Bauxide (aluminium) & copper
Do not be surprised it will also ban Palm oil export as well
https://www.mondaq.com/mining/1283832/indonesias-ongoing-strategy-to-ban-the-exportation-of-raw-minerals-jokowi-to-ban-the-exportation-of-copper-following-nickel-and-bauxite#:~:text=President%20Joko%20Widodo%20had%20previously,be%20effective%20by%20June%202023.
2023-02-23 23:17
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥
calvintaneng is all over the place. Just look at his haphazard promotions. Ridiculously unintelligent.
2023-02-24 07:08
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥
The year 2022 in Indonesia was marked by unusual incidents which include extreme wet weather, surging cases of Covid-19 in February, the outbreak of Russia – Ukraine war in February, very high prices of vegetable oils that include palm oil, very high prices of oil, government’s palm oil export ban during 28 April – 23 May, high prices of fertilizers and very low realization of replanting program for smallholders (PSR).
1. Local consumption in 2022 reached 20.968 million tons, which was higher than that in 2021 at 18.422 million tons. The consumption was dominated by food industries at 9.941 million tons, which was higher than that in 2021 at 8.954 million tons and higher than that in 2019 before pandemic at 9.860 million tons.
2. The consumption for oleo-chemical industry reached 2.185 million tons, which was 2.8% higher than that in 2021 at 2.126 million tons. It was much lower than the increase of consumption during 2019-2020 at 25.4% and period of 2018- 2019 at 60% which was suspected to have been caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
3. The consumption for biodiesel in 2022 reached 8.842 million tons which was higher than the consumption in 2021 at 7.342 million tons.
4. The exports in 2022 reached 30.803 million tons, which were lower than that in 2021 at 33.674 million tons, and it was the fourth consecutive year that saw export drop from year to year. The export value in 2022 reached US$39.28 billion (CPO, processed and derivative), higher than that in 2021 at US$35.5 billion. It was caused by the fact that the price
of palm oil products in 2022 was higher than that in 2021. Ten destination countries of Indonesian palm oil exports are China, India, USA, Pakistan, Malaysia, Netherlands, Bangladesh, Egypt, Russia and Italy. The USA rating as palm oil importer rose from fifth in 2020 to third in 2022.
With the realization of production, local consumption and exports mentioned above, then the local stock of palm oil is estimated to reach 3.658 million tons. Based on the growth rate of production and consumption, all those problems hindering the production increase should be tackled soon. The condition that has affected the palm oil industry during 2022 is predicted to continue affecting the performance of palm oil industry in 2023. Production is projected to remain stagnant, while the domestic consumption is projected to rise due to the implementation of the mandatory B35 program since 01 February 2023.
2023-02-24 08:00
Thanks to SSLee for posting exact figures for year 2022 Indonesia total production to be only 46 plus millions
And for 5 long years only extra 600,000 hectares of palm oil lands were planted which means only 120,000 hectares were planted per year in Indinesia
Looks like Palm oil will one day be as scarce as tin mines in Malaysia leading to higher and higher prices
While palm oil planting is SO LIMITED the population of the world has been growing by 80 million per year (1% growth of new babies out of 8 billion total world population)
And 5 years figure will be 80 million babies x 5 years = 400 million extra mouths to feed which is more than the population of USA(330 million)
Palm oil is in complete opposite of glove
While supply of gloves now in total glut due go China GROSS OVERPRODUCTION
Palm oil will see EVER INCREASING DEMAND
The Verdict?
A no brainer to buy and hold palm oil shares!
2023-02-24 08:29
Fcpo now real time Rm4260
Ramadhan in April 2023 will see firm demand going up higher
2023-02-24 15:10
Happy Saturday Morning to all who visit here
Calvin thank all who made this a top post in i3 forum for now
I hope what is shared will be helpful and fruitful for all dear fraternity of investors
Tsh just reported a 3.28 sen profit after the excellent 18.7 sen profit
those who did a surface reading were disappointed and sold
But Calvin took opportunity to buy more. Eagle group who first got the info also bought
that was why after Tsh dropped from Rm1.07 to Rm1.02 it rebounded up to close at Rm1.06
Here Calvin will share more about Tsh
2023-02-25 09:41
Please go see Tsh latest qtr results and comments
1. This qtr Tsh reported Rm52 millions pax (profit after tax)
which translates to 3.28 sen profit
2023-02-25 09:43
Debt now Rm560 millions while Tsh cash is Rm375 millions
that leaves Rm185 millions
but do read the balance sheet again more carefully
it stated that by Dec 31 2022 Tsh has received Rm428.8 millions cash (partial payment ) from Rm731.09 millions of Bulugan land sold
that means Rm302 millions yet to be reported as this sum only came in On January 2023 and too late to be included in Oct - Dec 2022 qtr reporting (so it will only appear in May 2023 financial results of Tsh
2023-02-25 09:48
So as of now Tsh is already debt free and cash rich with Rm117 millions cash surplus due to cash received but not yet official reported Rm302 millions minus Rm185 mil ( residual loan)
Thus Tsh May 2023 will report about 21 sen extra cash of which 13.12 sen is profit
if Tsh perform uniformly with just 3.28 sen normal profit from operation at 3.28 sen
then the total profit projected for May 2023 will be
16.46 sen
(13.12 sen profit plus 3.28 sen from operations)
Remember
16.46 sen is estimate and actual profit can only be known by May 2023 depending on other factors
Calvin thinks Tsh now has a bright future as twice Tsh Management gave sanguine views by saying they are "optimistic"
2023-02-25 09:55
Symptoms of thyroid dysfunction are non-specific and extremely prevalent in the general population. This, along with a growing body of information available to patients via the lay press and internet suggesting that traditional thyroid function testing is not reliable, has fostered some degree of patient mistrust. Increasingly, when a physician informs a patient that their thyroid is not the cause of their symptoms, the patient is dissatisfied and even angry. https://vampire-survivors.io This review aims to clarify the interpretation of normal and mild abnormalities of thyroid function tests by describing pituitary-thyroid physiology and through an in depth review of, arguably, the three most important biochemical tests of thyroid function: TSH, free T4, and anti-TPO antibodies. It is important for primary care providers to have an understanding of the shortcomings and proper interpretation of these tests to be better able to discuss thyroid function with their patients.
2023-03-01 18:26
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2023-03-02 22:10
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I3investor allows investors around the world to publish their own stories, ideas, tips and comments. The conversation that happens on I3investor - and the opinions expressed here - mirror the diversity of the people using I3investor.
To balance the needs and interests of a various investors, I3investor protects comments and posts that meet the community standards outlined on this page.
Please review these standards. They will help you understand what type of comments and posts are acceptable, and what type of content may be reported and removed.
Violence and Threats
Safety is our top priority. You may not credibly threaten to harm others, or organize acts of real-world violence. We remove content and may escalate to law enforcement when we perceive a genuine risk of physical harm, or a direct threat to public safety. We also prohibit promoting, planning or celebrating any of your actions if they have, or could, result in financial harm to others, including theft and vandalism.
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I3investor takes threats of self-harm very seriously. We remove any promotion or encouragement of self-mutilation, eating disorders, hard drug abuse or suicide.
Bullying and Harassment
I3investor does not tolerate bullying or harassment. We allow users to speak freely on matters and people of public interest, but take action on all reports of abusive behavior directed at private individuals. Repeatedly targeting other users with offensive comments or messages is a form of harassment.
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2023-03-02 22:37
Posted by TreeTopView > 4 days ago | Report Abuse
In closing, so that investors are aware of the facts, at NO TIME did KLK's Tan Sri Lee Oi Hian state that he had concerns or was aware about any introduction of a windfall tax for palm oil companies.
Others may want to cite this information as rumour, however I'd consider their motives VERY dubious and possibly actionable.
The end.
2023-03-08 11:56
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calvintaneng
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil
Click on 25Y or All button to see full history of Palm Oil
CPO all time high was Rm4000 in year 2008
Lately prices spiked past Rm6000 & now still very good above Rm4200 a ton
This is reason to stay bullish
2023-02-23 22:32