nope, OPCOM is one of the manufacturer of fiber optic of which there are many. electplus, belden, schneider electric, coretech, taiwan, china, japan, etc etc etc. There are so many suppliers its not sustainable. Even opcom is a joint venture with erricsson AB. All I can say is their products are not the cheapest in the market, and the competition is fierce. With one look at their net margins below 3%, you can tell its not a good business to buy.

this kind of thinking is the simplistic thinking of a child who wants to prove to the world that he is an adult. For adults? I'll just quote munger,

“The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.” Charlie Munger

For SSLEE:
“People calculate too much and think too little.”
― Charles T. Munger

There is a world of difference between me and people like Calvin Tan and KYY. They teach you about price, TP, how to fly and when to buy and sell.

I try to teach you how to think.

>>>>>>
Most people may not feel that malicious feeling of wanting to con others when they share their research.

But if its so good, share for what? Quiet and buy lah. Why need to motivate volume to come in? Why need others to know?

Everyone who writes an article extolling the virtues of the stock, looks at the stock closely the next day with the hope (secret or not) that it will now go up.

Now that you mention it, I even have his real name. Time to give a call ...

Just trying to help out stockraider a little bit get his ikan Bilis collection.


>>>>>>
Hehehe..... I thought Philip never invest in penny stock?

And the funniest thing is, after all your disparaging remarks on JAKS business etc, it went from rm0.49 to rm0.8. While RCECAP went from 1.45 to 1.66. and INSAS from 0.67 to 0.76.

So, is qqq3 and icon8888 the smart ones here? Or are you the ones blinded by numbers and not understanding how business works?

I think I should keep quiet from now on as well. Insulting kids is beneath me. I should know better than to bully children.

If investing so easy I into you a better stock lo.

Go buy Parkson! It's worth 260 million, but the net asset is 3.7 billion. Cash is 1.37 billion ringgit.

That is even more dirt cheap!
>>>>>

LOTR3839 SAPRES (4596) is Dirt cheap stock!

Sapura is going to be the best company in 2019!

The horrible old CFO gone now time for sapura to shine!

It's not a fake news, it really did happen. Lol. Time to load up more on sapura push it to 0.35 cents today!

Sapura CFO has just abandon ship. Rosenah Mohd Hassan has left, without leaving any replacement. So irresponsible!

I know none of those people that you speak of in real life.

I only go to bed with one person, my wife.

I do know hubris and pride when I see them, and I seek to understand why someone would "interview" other investors then write hit pieces on their investing method (poor OTB and Davidlim), while they themselves have ZERO results to show for.

I also repeat here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/188836.jsp

The hubris and overconfidence of someone who never invested in inari (but chose to buy more into INSAS), and having the confidence to run down a long term investor (just to prove that his investing is relevant), this is simply another jon choivo in the making.

A lot of talk. No results.

At least qqq3, 3ii, even icon8888 and koonyewyin do not think they know so much and made so much money that they can write investment grade analysis reports promoting their stocks by degrading other investors.

All of those above have been investing since at least 2009 (at minimum).

How long have you been in the market? And the moment you went in, the first thing you do instead of investing slowly and steadily was to become xinquan top 30 shareholder, and insas have lunch with the owners.

Wonderful, even have investment blogger talks!

Again, I repeat: Results?

You are similar to Jon in that you have a worldview of how things should be working out, without any results to show that it works. I must admit, I also have my own mental models and worldview. I am quite stubborn about it. But mine is based on reality, on real results, over 10+ years (after 10 years of failure, for an investment career of 20 years)

I summarize: RESULTS.

I suggest you start here, post your investment strategy, you portfolio results (not XXXX, percentage gain). and your long term investment gain:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1977.html

Then you and choi yi kit can write about whatever you want, how bats and palm oil are the investment of the future, and I would read carefully.

Wonderful! The new 2% short sales agreement with substantial shareholders for the bond sales, is bringing down the price of Topglov to more hot sales territory.

7 cents a in july. bonus issue 1:1. 5 cents this last quarter (effectively 10 cents dividend). 17 cents dividend a year is pretty good no? If topglove price can drop lower to RM3.4, I would be taking margin and buying all I can!

Haven't gone full 50% margin since 2010.

Relax, topglov will do fine. I've been here for a while.

I recommend you read this, it is one of the principle reasons I gave up on trading strategies in the 90's based purely on price trend, arbitrage and momentum.

I totally agree, as a minority shareholder, you can only look to the stock price appreciation and dividend yield to make you rich.

However, momentum investing involves dealing with EMOTION. As you would have probably noticed by now, emotions are something that I find hard to control sometimes, especially in investing.

I thus seek to take it out of my system, and focus on concentrated investing in businesses where I can go to Pulau Sipadan, dive and fish for months on end, or go to my farm and replant my oil palm and pineapples without looking at the stock price ticker every few minutes.

The meaning of life is to give life meaning.

If I have to work so hard, monitor so closely every hour every day, just to squeeze in a few more percentage points, might as well read more on co business growth long term, concentrate my investments, and monitor closely every quarter instead.

It's pathethic I know, but I do well for myself. I have yet to cut loss or margin call, so that lack of stress there has to mean something, right?

>>>>>>>>>>>
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp

Why would I sell it? I'm confused. If it's a good stock that keeps on growing it's earnings and dividends over time, why not just hold on to it and hand it over to your grandchildren?

When it first listed in 2010, it's ipo price was 5.20.

In that period of time, it has given you rm1.89 in dividends, grown it's share price to rm9.2, and most importantly used it's retained earnings to grow net worth from 17 billion to 30 billion ( just in case anyone ever decided to buy over the company you would have even more to earn).

Dividends was just 16 cents in 2010. Today in 2019 you get 32 cents. 10 years from now, I expect it to give out rm1 in dividends every year.

If you think this is an impossible story, I invested in QL in 2009 with just 200k., On an average basis not counting reinvestment, the shares I bought post split is now giving me around 21k of dividends every year. In a 5 years from now, my dividends alone would have paid for my 200k investment. After that free gold mine forever.

The goal of investing is to find a good stock. The question remains, do you really have to sell if you hit your "tp"?

Sorry for teasing you a little bit.

But share price is what you pay, value is what you get.

If you ask Mr teh to sell his public bank shares once he got "TP" he will probably giggle and say ok next week. He will give you the same reply 10 years from now.

He is one of 3 individuals in Malaysia permitted To hold a more than 10% stake in a domestic financial institution.

So you really need to understand in terms of ecosystem. Alipay does not handle debt, only cash. It simplifies payment method. you still need to link your alipay account to a credit card if you want to do... credit.Ghl is having problems integrating all of these because of its back end.

Stoneco also handles debt handling directly, internally (visa, MasterCard, amex) which is debt fueled, as it is a "bank". Which is a big game changer. I think it will stay highly relevant in the future. Ghl probably not.

If alipay can process debt directly with users like you and me, it will either go bankrupt really fast, or be there biggest China around. I doubt this will be possible, it's hard to track down non-paying lenders. Banks got a full credit compliance team, plus Dog the bounty Hunter to chase you down.

Ghl is quite similar to stoneco when it first started, I used ghl to analyze my understanding of STNE. If you want to use growth triggers, you can see the next challenges facing ghl that stoneco has met and resolved to advance to the next stage.

In terms of business, ghl is stuck at the EDC terminal sales stage. They have a big market in Malaysia, with 200 sales staff selling EDC terminal. However.... They are only doing the front end, and selling back to back the credit "debt assets" to acquiring banks. Stoneco has managed to get the bank negara approval to become an acquiring bank itself. So it makes the big 18% a year that credit card companies make on debt on top of it's assets and going around acquiring merchants microtransactions. Basically it's a specialized bank that only does this business, handling small sme's.

In terms of growth, stone is adding customers at 100% growth per year. Ghl is already a big market in Malaysia with 200 million transactional revenue on 3.6 billion sales, but with very slow growth uptake in other countries.
Stone does this because it does the entire system ( POS, accounting, EDC) via cloud and into your smartphone and supported by a huge "mlm" team that goes around helping not so internet savvy people as well as selling those systems to new business owners. Ghl only sticks to selling EDC terminal only that can link to a POS system that you need to buy a computer/cash register for. And not very good support, according to online reviews comparing other rival suppliers.

In terms of market size, South East Asia is very difficult to do business in because of geography and culture. Brazil is one big landmass. Stoneco is targeting 8.8 million small business owners that can't even get EDC terminal approvals due to risk issues. It still has a long way to go. Ghl on the other hand cannot simply give out EDC terminal to every Tom dick and Harry out there, they need to get big bank approval first. Stoneco is it's own "bank".

If stoneco was to replicate it's business here in SEA, I think ghl and others will go out of business pretty fast.

Don't worry, I not like you. Dare to post, dare to be responsible.

Like this also can lohsoh. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

Your investing strategy is all textbook and not based on reality. You have no results to show. You buy average companies, for average prices.

You should be more humble. And understand that all investment, all business is related.

This advice give you free.

This is why I know Choi yi kit will not succeed long term.

In my twenties, it is exactly because I had huge debts that I had to work so hard to earn money.

In my thirties I already had multiple income streams. In addition to my job, I had bought a cheap piece of land ( 5k per acre) in tawau around 4 acres to plant palm oil. Then I also started to do Amway mlm,and also part time draftsman. Not to mention selling black 4D to around 400 workers back in the day.

No money, but plenty of cash flow.

By my fourties my debts were all paid off, I had 12 acres of palm oil plantation, I hit emerald Amway distribution, I was a certified A0 so I could rent out my license, and I had become a technical manager. Bigger salary, got performance bonuses.

Still no money, but all the cash flow into growing my portfolio, and my income streams.

Investing is about attitude, patience, rationality and hard work.

From the way you write, I doubt you will go far in life.

>>>>>>
Philip, I have more money in my twenties than you have in your forties.

Choi yi kit won't. This is simply because he actually thinks he is better than Berkshire and his long term results will better than Warren buffet.

oh my gosh! that is wonderful Fortune Bull!, that profit alone is like double the size of jon choivo portfolio. How did you manage such an amazing thing?

Just remember the lesson of young choivo so called long term value investor.

He follow KYY buy hengyuan at low price of 9, watch it go up to 16, then his heart become soggy, and he buy in again at 18 only to watch it all crumble down to 4.

At least if you earn you nod your head and move along, no need to be sour grapes.

Why sslee always only read and see what he wants to see.


I was giving you what is known as a what if scenario. Like you always love to do with your reposting of past figures with no solid future results analysis.

No need to pollute my blog like stockraider with irrelevant information.

What does managing stress have to do with the future of TIMECOM?

Thank you.

I would rather buy TM. It is far more oversold. And they also have far more of those "super highway fiber networks".

More importantly, they have cut their dividends, rationalized their business, are more sensitive to upstarts like time, and are improving their costs and services to meet the future.

All TM needs to do is to cost cut here and there, trim a few bits here and there and voila.

Their monopoly is still intact. Yes even maxis and Digi have to use tm fiber trunk line ( they prefer to rent time in certain areas because it's cheaper than TM) for their 4g and 5g upcoming transmission.

But a full price war ( which gobin would love) between Time and TM won't even be funny. Yes it's probably against anticompetition law, but if tomorrow TM decided to upgrade their equipment in those 3 areas which time has coverage, reset up and start selling 1gbps to those homes only at rm50 2 year special? That year also time can pack up and divest their FTTH business.

It's not that TM can't compete. They just choose not to interact with noisy children. Unless mcmc forces them to.

If investing was about looking at details of the past, sslee and choivo would be richest men in Malaysia today.

Alas, investing is about the future.

Time main income growth driver is not from renting out those super highway of fiber optic networks ( which in their annual reports is listed as challenging and competitive) which they also co-own with TM and many others companies ( rangkaian 1 Malaysia) etc.

Their main income driver comes from solving the last mile issue. Putting fiber to the home. In their letter they have acknowledged difficulty in supplying their service to the masses because

A. TM not willing to give up their use rights of those existing poles to landed properties and existing mdf manholes and pipelines to their condos everywhere. If you want, build your own la.

B. It is either too expensive to cut roads and lay their own fiber last mile framework, or they will lose huge money for each subscriber they add by doing so. Time wants free lunch, but TM says try harder.

Currently you can already have broadband to the house wirelessly (4g) by getting a sim card and a wireless router. Our only complaints is price and quality. 5G will fix that, with new low power transmitters and high access speeds of 3gbps and huge number of connections.

Why is maxis, Digi etc broadband package so expensive? Electricity costs ( current cell towers suck up electricity like a cow eats grass), FTTH are cheaper because it is cheap to relay light through fiberglass instead of sound.

That will soon change as evidenced by 5g trials recently in putrajaya.

On top of that since 2009, time has not been paying 24% taxes because they have been using their past losses building those super highway fibre optic networks.

Starting 2019, LGE has said Time can no longer claim those losses, and must pay 24% tax on everything they earn.

Do you think time business starting next year can grow so much more that their EBITDA in 2019 will be able to absorb 50 million of taxes and still be more profitable earnings growth than 2018?

I think not. Time did 288 million this year. In 2019, after making more record breaking profit, time will be paying 24% tax, 50 million more give or take, putting their expected returns at 230 million net earnings. For a company whose only ability is to cut down on prices to win market share ( which TM owns market share 10:1, why would they drop prices if they don't have to? And it's not like they can't, both have those "fiber assets", tm just chooses not to) it's not exactly a big threat.

Good luck to time investors next quarter1 of 2019.

Thank you.

bye kid. I will stop interacting with children like you as well.

another brainless whiner. Just like TIME.

Whining about why they cant serve their landed customers.

whine whine whine.

it doesn't matter how infinitely fast your internet it becomes if you can't solve the last mile issue, which is where TIME biggest growth is coming from.

Room to grow? at 100K per KM? good luck.

your selling costs will always be capped by your deployment costs.

And now that TIME can no longer claim tax incentive from their losses before? I practically GUARANTEE LOWER EARNINGS in the future.

problem is with losers like jon choivo the more he lose out, the louder he gets.

If he stays humble, keeps quiet, gets in some good long term results and then says what he wants, charge investors 5K, promotes his ideas over other people I have zero issue.

But his hubris does not match with his results.

Not. At. All.

5G not enough? wait till you see what 6G does. wireless power like how nicola tesla promised us? The future is far more advanced than you can believe. If you told someone 80 years ago that you would be able to send a wireless mail in 2 seconds from malaysia to england, invent wireless charging, be able to talk on wireless phones, translate languages instantaneously?

He would have laughed his head off.

Yes, top up more. put in all your money.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip2/197219.jsp

LESS LOHSOH. MORE INFO. THIS IS WHY WARREN BUFFET HATES INVESTING IN TECH COMPANIES. SPEND BILLIONS PULLING 3600 KM OF CABLES, REGISTER HUGE LOSSES. AFTER EARN THINGS BACK AGAIN, 5G COMES IN AND RUINS YOUR DAY AGAIN.

5G not viable technology? wait till they start investing in millions of small cell switches technology for 5G networks.

I'm sorry KC. Someone who is not rich (period), whose analysis and results have not yielded results ( despite him trying to get everyone to agree with him) you need to be very clear. If you still continue to listen to him, then losses will be in your head.

If someone who goes around spouting value investing and charges 5000 for looking at your stock and charges you management fee for stock picking but makes you buy assets that perform worse than epf, I can that outright fraud.

“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”

I am on Ben Graham side on this.
>>>>>>

A young man who is not rich (yet) from investing doesn't mean he is not knowledgeable and sharing good stuff. In my opinion, he has shared with many good stuff. On the other hand, an old rich man who has made a lot of money in the stock market(seemingly too) doesn't mean he is a good investor and everyone must worship him, and more so if he is sharing with noble intention.

Personally, I find the author of this thread has good knowledge investing in his own way, bearing in mind that if one follows a right way of investing, and there are many right ways, he will do well in the future.

How do you define substance? If someone who posts a lot of blogs, but no results to show, is that considered substance?

The only reason why you listen to Warren Buffett and Charlie munger-is because you can see their financial results over 50 years and see that they have a proven record, so their advice is worth listening to.

If you hear someone who only has 2 years negative investment record telling you how to INVEST, what would you do, follow her advice?

What more someone who professed to do long term value investing, and yet has never held a stock longer than 2 years?

And sell it for parts.

Do you have access to the cash flow and cash assets as minority shareholder?
No you don't. All you have access to is dividends and share price increase.

I suggest you pay attention to that very important fact, and keep that in your mind in your valuation of any investment. There is a reason why they call it a value trap. Same with INSAS. Same with Parkson. Same with xinquan.

You cannot use one single metric to evaluate a company.

If you could and investing was easy, I would buy Parkson, with a market cap of 267 million but with net assets of 3.6 billion. And cash of 1.18 billion.


>>>>>>
AGAIN WHY HARPING ON GROWTH WHEN YOUR CASHFLOW YIELD IS 17% PA LEH ??

Really brainless SOHAI

Topglove net profit

2014 183million
2015 281 million
2016 362 million
2017 330 million
2018 437 million

What part of net profit is collapsing you sohai idiot.

STOP MISLEADING MY INVESTORS AND FAMILY WITH FALSE INFORMATION THAT IS PUBLICLY AVAILABLE.
STICK TO YOUR CAVE.

STAY AWAY. OR START YOUR OWN BLOG.
I won't be reading or replying further.

It's probably because those who don't have any results to show talk(write) too much and too loud about investment strategies that the only way to shut them up is to actually compare portfolio results over long period of time to see if their investment strategies are actually viable.

Well? 3 things matter. How long have you invest. How much have you interested. What your annualized growth rate really is over a long period of time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ricky Yeo Why do some elderly loves to tell people like how much is their portfolio? Imagine Bezos going around "Hey, I got $80 billion, what do you know?"

Revenue is all time high la stupid SOHAI. Disposable product how to become cyclical bodoh? You think petronm with scheduled shutdown? Do you even know what is cyclical business? You stupid or something? Annually every year HARTA and TOPGLOV did better than the previous year for upteen years. Stick to your sapura and INSAS, you brainless office boy.

I repeat, don't pollute my blog. Or I will have to shut down replies again.

My blog is for people who seek knowledge, not those who shut their brain and repeat useless information.

GO AWAY.

Please open annual report for all the producers and check trade journals. Rubber glove market is a disposable product which needs to be replaced every time you use it. The entire world market is growing by more than 10% yearly for the past 10 years. Mature markets( USA, Japan) are growing slower, but the other markets are growing by 30+%.
Please open page 27 of the annual report la SOHAI.

Stop posting your nonsensical remarks ( in ALL CAPS nonetheless) and stay away from my blog. I wrote it. You are not welcome. Go away stockraider. And stop asking me to buy shit like INSAS.

>>>>>
1. ADDING MORE CAPACITY MEANS CREATING MORE PROBLEM TO THE ALREADY GLUT OF RUBBER GLOVES AND ITS SELLING PRICE AND THIS WILL IMPACT ITS PROFIT & MARGIN MAH...!!

Gut feeling is merely all the mental models you carry around in your mind working together, forming a latticework of related information guiding your subconscious mind into an Aha! Moment of fear or hope decision.

The is something to be said about gut feeling when wielded by long years of experience.

But looking bigger picture at the 5 year results of its technology owner OKI electric industries (Japan) shows a stagnating and slowing growth over the past 5 years, share price also stagnating and going down slowly. Even in their annual report, oki find that the internet adoption and the slowing down of their ATM machine usage internationally is quite worrying.

It shares a similar correlation to OPENSYS local dynamics.

You growth has to be spread between 8-10 years as the existing is still usable(and no requirement to replace new but maintain and run) and banks are moving more towards online transactions instead of via machine. My family and I pay all our bills, loans and transfers online these days as it is much more convenient than paying at the machine. I believe this trend is something that will grow further and not lessen as smartphones and internet get cheaper and cheaper.

CDM machines were brilliant as they were the disruptors of the day when they replaced the bank tellers job.

I firmly believe that the internet, smartphone app and digitisation of payments will further disrupt this chain of investment in the long term 5-10 years from now, reducing the need for high tech CDM, CRM machines, and maintaining existing machines only.

I may be wrong, and I dearly hope you are right as I have no position into OPENSYS. But I do think the best days are behind it. I wouldn't be surprised in the age of 5G payment machines going the way of the physical payphone.

Good luck in your investment. You know the environment better than my cursory glance.

Which is why I pointed out the fact that topglove is adding more production lines, more expansion, more r&d, more cost reduction activities, more improvement.

Hartalega is giving up 240 million every year from 400 million in earnings and giving it out as dividends.

TOPGLOV is giving out 190 million out of 400 million earnings, and using the retained earnings to grow bigger and extend its moat and improve its business.

TOPGLOV is cheaper to buy, and has better mix than HARTA.

I'm content to bet on this horse for the long term.

Lazy to be jealous of someone who talk alot but can't even put some money into longbets.org

Moving on.

Fatboy choivo thinks just because saying his articles are meaningless means I invest against him.

Your portfolio results are a load of crap. Performance wise average is still worse than EPF returns(6.15% in 2018, 6.9% in 2017, versus your 12.22% in 2017 and -17.95% returns in 2018). Volume wise is a drop of the ocean ( how much volume are you managing that even makes it worthwhile talking? EPF invests billions). If you can't manage small sums efficiently, how do you expect to handle ever larger amounts over time?

I would say be humble, learn and read. Get a working, profitable portfolio then you can be lohsoh as much as you like.

No results, high and mighty, and worse still comment like you know exactly what is going to happen. And taking money from so called investors ( the kind I hate the most)

Let me teach you a 20 year old lesson:

The market can stay weird for far longer than you can stay solvent.

You are a fraud, a "fake investment banker" with zero experience but good memorizer of books.

Stop being jealous of kyy and OTB results and returns. I repeat, meaningless article.

Get a life ( and a portfolio)!

FYI, a percentage increase/decrease each year without cost and market value is meaningless. You might as well doctor your results instead and get more "investors".

Personally, I think PCHEM would be a better buy for retirees and elders, if they are looking for a safe long term investment. It has the lowest risk Vs reward ratio in my stock portfolio.

Don't get me started on dividends, if you do a dcf analysis based on dividends, almost all the stocks you look at are a bad investment.

In either case, DCF also does not take into account many things.

>>>>>
Limitations of DCF Model

A DCF model is powerful but there are limitations when applied too broadly or with bad assumptions. For example, the risk-free rate changes over time and may change over the course of a project. Changing cost of capital or expected salvage values at the end of a project can also invalidate the analysis once a project or investment has already started.

Applying DCF models to complicated projects or investments that the investor cannot control is also difficult or nearly impossible. For example, imagine an investor who wants to purchase shares in Apple Inc. (AAPL) in late 2018 and decides to use DCF to decide whether the current share price is a fair value.

This investor must make several assumptions to complete this analysis. If she uses Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the model, should she add an expected growth rate? What is the right discount rate? Are there alternatives available or should she just rely on the estimated market risk premium? How long will she hold AAPL’s stock and what will its value be at the end of that period? Unfortunately, there's a lack of consistent answers to these questions, and since she cannot access AAPL’s cash flow as a minority shareholder, the model is not helpful.

If I were to pick up figures from the sky ( which is what DCF is all about), and use past historical figures only, my DCF calculated value for ql currently ( if no further growth triggers apply), I would be giving ql a dcf intrinsic value of rm18.65. if ql gets over the bump into the second growth challenge ( which I am confident they will do), I have an intrinsic value of rm26.47. if they perform beyond my wildest expectations and become the next Nestlé, my DCF is rm53.6. your guess is as good as mine.

I would need to earn at least 6% above( more than EPF rate), otherwise it would be unwise to invest in the future.

But SSLee you are buying a business. Not an asset. If you buy a lousy business with 1 refineries, it would not grow beyond that. But if you are buying pt murni which is one of the biggest privately owned plantations, your business will definitely grow beyond your original calculations 10 or 15 years ago.

Imagine rabbits breeding. When you first only paid for 2 pairs of rabbits, in 10 years you would have many many many pairs of rabbits, far beyond your wildest projections.

The challenge is to buy a male and female pair. After that you wait.

My quarterly report for TOPGLOV.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

My quarterly report for ql

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp