Skpres is another company that has majority of its revenue from 1 customer, Dyson. I really don't like that, especially since my wife made me buy that hair dryer for almost 2k. 2K!!!!

Luckily skpres is OEM manufacturing that wonderful detachable vacuum cleaner which I like a lot.

I'd prefer VS, which also has the same clientele. But they have first mover advantage, and have already foreseen the problem and expanded into making their own original design ( that coffee making machine thingy) products and more.

Scgm is actually in a very interesting place. Its an old Johor company that a friend of mine works in, which history has very good margins and pays dividends consistently every quarter. It is very shareholder centric. However with the new smart factory in kulai, they are going through a very tight teething phase where they bit off slightly more than they can chew on the short term but with a return to the 20+ million earnings a year they enjoyed before once they move over to the new plant in kulai after 30th April 2019. Having said that, my good friend didn't seem so confident. So I would expect end of the year before they go full run on its plastic lunch boxes.

In terms of growth, they have more competitors today than before (6 new manufacturers at last count) but with the new plant they should be able to produce far more product at much lower prices in the future and take back market share. SCGM did have first move advantage after all.

I think until our population grows up, there will always be a good market for their products.

Below rm1 is a very good time to go in, as the business profits reduction is temporary occurrence. But why only 10% KC? I would buy more. By end of December, this will definitely got rm1.35 at least.

SAM I have commented before, it's an ok company which does aerospace engineering support.... But also does hard disk parts. This seems to me a slow growing company with some niche but unfortunately in a small industry(aerospace maintenance), so the company needs to diversify into another source of revenue growth. It would have been better if they had gone into designing their own mini jet engines, but hey, what can you expect?

For magnitech, I simply don't like the business model of relying more than 80% of its revenue and earnings from 1 single customer, Nike. The only reason Nike buys their garments from you is because of the exchange rate, you are dirt cheap, your labour efficient and you are subservient.

Any deviation and it is very easy for Nike to just bring it business somewhere else where it is cheaper and more efficient to do business.

I would recommend you to watch the Netflix crowdfunded documentary "True Cost" to see how the garments industry works. And how fast fashion companies like h&m etc etc are taking advantage of 3rd world countries in the quest possible way.

I don't know what gtronics does and I don't even know how to begin estimating the market and it's growth potential or even its moat, if it has any versus the local and Taiwanese and Chinese competitors which seem to be able to do the same thing at any time. So I don't even bother.

FPI prosonic is an interesting company, it has a growing business ( if you start from the great decline of 2014 of 400+ million revenues and 7 million earnings) and ever since the majority shareholder of winstron, a growing dividend. In fact, if you had bought it at rm1, you would be earning 10% dividend yearly. Looking at the huge net cash position of FPI( zero debt?), I think the dividends will be sustainable as the business grows.

The issue now is growth. As it is an ODM and OEM for the cheap speaker knock-offs, it doesn't have it's own brand to build up market reputation. These need time to build up, but the rewards can be very good for revenue growth.

Having said that I don't like the speaker industry. Its a very competitive market where the revenue is high, but margins are squeezed so tight very few companies are profitable.

Even famous brands like Sonos, bang & Olufsen, creative labs, JBL, Harman kardon are all going through a cycle of boom/bust which leaves me out of investing in the speaker market.

If you really want to invest in something small cap that is revolutionary, I would look to investing in creative labs, the little Singapore company that could. It launched a new system X-FI that can play 3D sound that fools your ears, with a regular speaker. This caused its share price to jump from sg1 to sg8 in one year, causing the Singapore exchange to launch an investigation.

Hmmm, I don't appreciate you using my name in your goal for making fun of other people. But if this is really KC chongz stock selection, let me try to give my business sense understanding.

Comfort gloves I think is an attempt to buy into the next best thing that is a small cap with the assumption that small companies will have a chance to run up higher growth than the bigger company. Sadly it doesn't with that way. The most efficient companies are TOPGLOV and HARTA and they can produce at far greater volume and cheaper price and better management. In the future next 5 years you will still enjoy many multiples of growth while comfort earnings will stagnate at the lower 30s. They don't have the size to competeb lower prices. They don't have special product that only they have (nitrile equivalent). And being put on the FDA import list to begin with is a sign of poor management tactics in cutting corners. I'd stick to buying TOPGLOV at rm8+ lows, and HARTA. It has much better growth opportunities.

Oh god. Fintech startups in Singapore like numoni? Bye bye rm120 million...

I accept said apology. Especially since it has allowed me to purchase Gkent at rock bottom prices. If and when it goes up to its previously traded price of rm3.89 before the election, I will be sure to treat the management of Malaysia today a big thank you buffet.

And in terms of comparison to other mining companies, what I should have specified was not what they were mining, but how efficiently they are mining it. I used to look at cliffs(NYSE) before. The key metric for commodities has always been, how much did it cost them to dig it out of the ground and sell it, versus how much the market is willing to pay for it. Cliffs was usd1.5 in 2015, a 7 bagger today.

If you notice, this is also how Warren invests in his oil stocks and rewards his executives. The bonuses and compensation plans are based on reducing oil finding costs, not increasing profits and revenues ( which will be high when oil price goes up, and low when the oil price goes down).

I would try to find out something like this for grr and it's high grade ore competitors.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-breakeven-rates-major-miners-macquarie-bank-2018-1

Some last thoughts.

For me, I'd rather a company that has core competency in iron mining and understands that market industry invest its extra cash in associates doing upstream activities, buy more efficient machines and automation systems, pay their workers better, increase headcount etc rather than venturing into investments they know nothing about ( like property development).

Hi, I think you don't analyse your company enough, to be honest.

As a minority investor, you will never get your "business" for free. The cash balance, cash in hand, assets and etc will not be something that you can be an active part in. As a minority, your only definite part of the company will be is share price increase, dividend yield and share buybacks.

Like your have previously said, other mining companies have bigger share price increase over the longer term. Why is that? Could it be due to rights issue, share buybacks, lower dividends, warrants, bonds etc?

A big part which is often overlooked is the quality of management. I understand it is 42% Chinese owned and managed. Is it shareholder centric? What are the returns on shareholder equity?(ROE) Is it growing it's equity organically in its core business, or is it taking the easy way out ( like many bursa companies) that venture into property development.

And yes you hit the nail in the head, estimating growth rates should be one of the key valuation before you buy the stock.

I like to practise the exercise of Peter lynch in this, which I think is a brilliant guy (read the book one over wall Street). First, SCUTTLEBUTT. Find out from friends or investor relations you know in the mining industry in who the big dog is in Australia. How efficient grr is in remain to that big dog etc. Is the management more capable or just so so.

Then you try to split the company into one of these groups, fast growers, slow growers, stalwarts, turnarounds, cyclicals, asset plays and be clear on the reason you are buying them. Each one has a particular strategy.

Never underestimate the importance of good management.

Hi amateur apprentice.

For me I try to understand the business that I'm in first and foremost. What industry is it in, what makes it special versus it's competitors etc.

I don't really like the mining industry, as it is more a boom bust cycle usually as the business goes up and down in uncontrolled ways that constantly surprise me.

But may I ask you, why did YOU invest in the stock?

Was it chiefly for the 7% dividends?
Its there any specific growth trigger in the near future that is accountable? ( I wouldn't use rough terms like demand and optimism as specific) unless it leads to firm big orders from some major clients.

Any particular reason you chose grr in terms of competitive advantage? I noticed there is a huge cash pile ( which as minority shareholders you will never see) but are they doing anything with it?

I usually benchmark growth rates with comps like vale, Freeport and Rio tinto n terms of how to imagine my growth triggers for mining companies.

The magic word always seems to be integration.

At least I AM an engineer, unlike fake engineer/ex-investment bankers/ retirees who talk too much story and make up so many ideas in their minds about points of views. And worse, any random guy who disagrees with them gets called stupid and idiot and all sorts horrible names.

Your comments are useless and add no value to the conversation. If you don't have anything constructive to add, the JAKS thread is to the top and left.

>>>>>>

con8888 Operation guy talks operation

They can't see things from vantage point of view
02/04/2019 8:01 AM

Luckily stoneco(Nasdaq) and stone master(bursa)huge difference

As an technical manager who does tenders all the time, I would argue that it is a redesign and cost savings project, and in many ways is almost an entirely new project. The costs are different, the goals of the project is different. Even the people doing it are different.

>>>>>>>>
its more complicated than that. ...its not a fresh contract.
01/04/2019 11:22 AM

As a project delivery partner before, the lrt3 ballooning costs to 31 billion for a 40 km track( light railway some more) is not part of their scope, as gkent was just monitoring all the other portions done by others. So when other companies like gamuda etc dropped from their awarded contract, you know for sure it was due to corruption. Yes you are right the value is smaller this time around. But I would argue the fixed price contract now is actually more profitable before, since they no longer have to absorb 24% taxes for others, and award bogus work for minister linked subcontractors. The cost savings from managing and doing the full works for entire project with proper run companies will actually be more valuable in the long run.

>>>>>>>>>>

Also i think much revised amount could be the "undertable for BN" or commission to third parties.

Ok Calvin. You win all also. No need to over promote so much. If you are right you are right. Why scold and cajole others to buy your stocks?

You can't force me to buy your crap.

If your investing works then it works.

Being angry at the world does not help

Bye bye icon8888, I delete my comments and CFO thought process so you win all. Let you win all your beloved JAKS. I'm sure you think it is a wonderful investment. Too bad the CFO doesn't think so.

Calvin bought at 4 cents. But luckily he only bought 4.5 cents, and 100 lot so losses not so much. So no dividend as yet.

This is called 自己讲自己爽. All looking for confirmation bias, not trying to learn something new every day.

You mean only investors in JAKS can comment in this thread? Okay, my apologies, I will delete all my queries.

>>>>>

i3Value Malaysian favourite past time - argue for sake of arguing.

Nothing also can find something to argue.

If you invest in Jaks, fair you make comment here. If you not invested in Jaks and have no intention to invest in Jaks, what you doing here?
01/04/2019 1:21 PM

Well, if they invited my boss for redesign tender negotiations instead of a GLC bumi company third party, they are in the right track.

Hi Tracy92,
I am under obligation(to my self) to inform you that you will earn rm3500 or 3% dividend of your purchase price of 1.17. but also note usually after ex dividend, the stock price will usually also drop by 3.5 cents in the short term after dividend ex-date.

>>>>>>
osted by tracy92 > Apr 1, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, thanks for ur recommendation. I bot 100,000 units @ 1.17.

Fresh contract or not, gamuda gave up their "revised" contract because they know they can't make money off of it.

The fact that gkent signed off on the revised lower contract is because it is now a redesign and fixed price contract.

Only those who did not have to pay much under the table money will dare to take up this contract.

Hi Calvin, my bad bet into Gkent is paying me 3.5 cents dividend on my cost purchase of 1.12 next week. That 3% dividend.

My bad bet into PCHEM at 8.20 is paying me 18 cents dividend last week. That is 2.2% dividend.

All those are paid via earnings and profits from existing business.

Yahoo. Especially since I am reinvesting my profits into more shares.

How much is talamt paying you to wait? Buying it at 8 cents(or 4.5 cents, whatever) and holding until today, how much dividend are you getting? How much profit are you enjoying from your stocks?

I don't understand that remark. I do understand I'm getting 6% dividend per annum in existing business, plus guaranteed profit from LRT3 11.8 billion contract incoming.

Is talamt paying you dividend over your 3 years since you bought it at 8 cents?

>>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 1, 2019 8:16 AM | Report Abuse

why buy gkent when

COST IS HIGH NOW WITH PETROL RISING?

Wow, one day stop heavy promotion on a stock also cannot? Calvin tan I really need to know, what is your angle? Even using religion and Christianity as a tool for you to sell stocks? Please don't mix those 2 together, it is really humiliating, like Jesus going into his Father's house and finding all the merchants buying and selling idols, livestock's for sacrifice and gambling.

Jesus wept.

Gkent also does not have a history of ever losing money in the last 15 years. Shockingly, gkent has enough projects and growing business that they do not need to venture into property development, which is going to cause a long term recession in Malaysia for many property developers in the housing glut( not really glut, but so expensive locals can't even qualify for loans anymore).

Did I mention Gkent has a history of having net assets of CASH? A liquid and stable currency? It has 200 million more cash than naim which it deploys carefully.

Naim is 400 million in debt, and most of its "assets" are in land held for development (which is worthless unless developed) and interests in associates (naim land sb etc 300 million).

Its funny you should name NAIM. I know them well. They are based in Sarawak, a Sarawak politically linked company, building property that local sarawakians can't afford to buy. Their assets are pieces of jungles that were raped of timber, and land that has a 70 year expiry date. Yes, did you know that houses in Sarawak have a 70 year lease as compared to freehold property in Peninsular? Most kids who cant qualify for housing loan won't even know this. Very sad.

Worse of all, NAIM still owes me money (technically, my boss) for projects completed and handed over and sold. 2 years impaired, lawsuit and delayed. They used their "associate" company to award, which then turned into a 2 dollar company, that lawsuits will not have an effect on.

2 metrics to compare a business is just plain silly.


>>>>>>
gkent history of EPS and NTA not as great as Naim.

So now LGE award lrt3 contract to gkent revision at 11.8 billion last month feb 2019 is also because is LGE golf buddy? Its an open contract, only the companies doing proper job get the works.

If not, why did gamuda give up the contract tender after price revision?
>>>>>>
Gkent awarded LRT3 previously bec Najib golf buddy?

I never said I hate econpile, I just said I hate property developers, which is 50+% of econpile customer base. The possibility of property developer delaying and stop payments will become higher as time goes on. Government is more reliable, but with LGE at the helm, the possibility of mega projects under new government compared to old administration will be much lower, for the short to mid term.

Why? Just because it is going up?

As a subcontractor, some costs cannot be "managed". I believe in the future there will be more and more lawsuits and payment delays for econpile property developers ( and government projects).

If I had to choose a company, I would rather choose a good developer/maincon over a good subcontractor.

They always seem to get the shaft.

Notice how I always stick to QL, WEIDA and TOPGLOVE. Best paymasters in the market. I have yet to see a property development project where my boss is not forced to contra a unit or 2, or 10.

My advice if you really want to invest in construction line? Try to stick to companies which have more business units in top of their core competency, like trading (gkent water meter and wtp operation and management contract), manufacturing ( scientex film wrap business and property development, operations and management ( cypark with is environment engineering... And landscaping).

Not that I am shamelessly promoting those stocks, but I just hate property developers with a vengeance.

I do not see a good end to property developers in the short to medium term.

As I have personal experience in pilecaps and micropiles, especially an expert in using my trusty hitachi excavator to hammer those piles down, I know a thing a two about piling, which is why I don't really see anything special about econpile which cannot be replaced by China contractors doing projects these days, other than the fact that econpile does have a very good management team.

Having said that, piling work usually gets paid first, as it is the first portion to be claimed in your s&p agreement. I pity those who are roofing contractors and finishing work painters. Those always seem to go bankrupt these days.

Looking at note B9 for this quarter
31.12.2018 30.06.18

Neither past due nor impaired 200,446 299,923
1 to 60 days past due not impaired. 125,936 36,607
61 to 120 days past due not impaired 51,224 39,148
More than 121 days past due not impaired 19,638 42,709
196,798 118,464
Impaired 17,663. 2,806

I would monitor closely the aging for econpile, especially for its property development clients.ever year there is less and less individuals qualifying for a bank loan to buy property.

For me, being in the construction line, I always look at the business risk and the payment capability of clients first and foremost, not how much profit I will earn.

In essence, when I judge for projects to pick up, as technical manager I always reserve the right to veto any project "awarded" by a client who does not have cash or bank facility to pay.

These days most of these seem to be developers. As you will know, public Bank and Hong Leong are famous for not giving out bridging loans to developers.

The reason is because Malaysian developers operate under a sell then build concept, unlike Australia and overseas where the system is more a build then sell method.

This allows them to over leverage and sell projects using other people's money, which in this case includes econpile.

You see, being in the construction line in Malaysia, you don't actually get any down payment to start work. Its always a progressive claim system. Meaning you do first, when complete 20% then claim, so on and so forth.

Even for government projects it is the same thing.

Therefore using business sense, the key criteria for valuing econpile is not in its earnings and profits and order book. But in its receivables, and impairments of those receivables.

The faster you complete a project, the faster you can claim and move on to the next job. As most developers no longer have much finances, everything becomes slower, delayed and cancelled.

If your piling equipment becomes idle, you can lose money very fast.

What do you think is the future of the property development market in Malaysia, especially for high rise buildings?

Hi jackfruit, I'm not a stock analyst, I'm merely a amateur stock picker who reads a lot, am rational in my investments in not being much affected by highs and lows of the market, and treat investing as being part of a business, instead of prices on a stock ticker tape that goes up and down every day.

Picked up additional 29,500 shares of PCHEM @9.05 on march 26th t+3 based on dividends yield of 18 cents for my shares of 1,495,200 shares. The balance dividend seafood dinner in Penang!

But to be perfectly honest the 90's was really the go go years when I made so much money and had so much confidence in my "trading" skills that borrowing 200k from family and friends to open up margin accounts, and getting 20-30% returns weekly for months, I fooled myself into thinking I knew how to stock pick.

Once bitten forever dead I guess.

I feel very sad, when I illuminated the same thing about quality of loans between b40 lenders and rich Chinese people lenders, choivo say I am a fool. When ex-banker say the same things, choivo feels illuminated.

Are ex-bankers and accountants traditionally better investors and analysts than amateur old engineers?

Maybe when I become an ex-engineer I will be treated better.

>>>>>>>

RCECAP is still a pretty good one for me, but he definitely illuminated a few things for me to see.

Nice one Freddie, you probably went around in 2017 either...

Calvin tan he only promote but he don't buy how to bleed leh? He only know chun chun call mah, not chun chun buy.

Sure la calvin always the smartest one. What's 100% chun chun call. Ok track your words here, buy at 55 cents. Then sell at 65 cents right? Let's see how long we need to wait to get your trading results out.

Now follow your first I buy 1 lot at 51.5 cents to monitor how accurate your chun chun call is.

Wokeh! Good luck my young friend, and may sunshine always be with you!

At least you also have 2 cent dividend this quarter to sit and wait and monitor.

And more importantly, if you know stoneraider optimism of rm3 in 3 years and 3 months is convoluted, then I think you will be ok long term.

I think choivo just described his rich dad/poor dad scenario. When they pressed kiyosaki on who his "rich" dad was, knowing that the story didn't really fit and no one existed in Hawaii that had the vast ownership of properties he was alluding to, kiyosaki said later in life that his rich dad was more a metaphor on how to invest properly, rather than a real person as such.

That "rich dad" title helped him sell a lot of books and get a lot of new clients.

#truestory

Fyi any Malaysian who tells you they bought Netflix early is most likely fake. The only real documented person I know who bought it early was my daughter's lecturer in California. He bought it at usd8 in 2012. Unfortunately, he also sold out at usd36, which gives you an idea of how being able to pick and hold good stocks and write good articles with a PhD degree in economics is not always correlated.

Nonetheless, good well written article! Kudos!

Buy when everyone is buying, sell when everyone is selling?

I don't think you will ever get a good deal like that, nor make big money.

Its like the selling durians at the height of durian season when prices are lowest and market is flooded. Or buying your durians at the highest price during the beginning of the season.

You either sell too early, buy too late, sell too late or buy the wrong stock.

I really don't think trends are anyone's friend, not even in the stock market.

If after the latest QR results still do to cure you of your beliefss and hubris, then I think nothing will.

Good luck and I hope your Sapnrg does a huge turnaround and you do well. Because in the end no one is angry at you or wishes you ill will. This is just an online forum to share knowledge and investing results. No one knows each other here and I'm sure if we meet each other in real life as Malaysians we will treat each other with the utmost respect and friendship.

I just hope that you will realize sometimes even if we talk bad about Sapnrg it is not always to bring it down so we can buy it at cheaper price. Sometimes it can also be as a friendly warning based on long years of results.

Not everyone is a shark. Not everyone is a bilis.

I also reinvested my dividends and my capital into my stocks, every quarter for 10 years, so I know what you think you are doing.

You are just doing it with the wrong stocks.

And if you think I'm new "here",

I invested in ql in 2009,
Topglove in 2010,
Pbb in 2012
Yinson in 2013,

And have not "cut loss" or sold a share since ( until recently swap from pbb to PCHEM).

I doubt your trading has given you joy in your 10 years of "investing", so maybe some advice from an amateur uncle who invested since the 90s will help you out.

I was once like you, but luckily I learned.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

Hopefully, I can get you to stop wasting your time and go into real investing.