I cannot see how this C02 JV could be successful. Armada has no experience in C02 injection which is technically challenging. Navigator has a questionable record (bankruptcy).

Projects of C02 are in the UK, and an oil supermajor like BP could get government funding there, 'greenwash' their oil operation and undercut JV. I worked for BP. I know their 'energy company' theme, helios logo and BP being translated as 'Beyond Petroleum.'

How can we compete under such cirumstances, without grants and support, on someone else's turf ?

As a long in this ticker, I would cash out of some short term profit and wait for a pullback. There was no good news. Wish I had more funds to buy 2 weeks ago.

I suggest for investors to study Bre-X rather that nestle or racing horses to get an insight into the company.

Clearly it peaked. Needs a new catalyst.

So, I see a lot of personnel changes. I hope that it is an indication of company making progress and out of PN17.
Keep me and others posted.
😏
______________________________-
KUALA LUMPUR (June 25): Scomi Energy Services Bhd chief executive officer Hilmy Zaini Zainal is resigning from the top post effective June 30 due to “personal reasons”, the group said in bourse filing today.
He will be succeeded by Scomi Group Bhd’s independent non-executive director Amirul Azhar Baharom effective July 1, according to a separate filing.
Amirul Azhar, 46, currently also serves as the independent non-executive chairman of UMS-Neiken Group Bhd and as independent non-executive director of Rohas Tecnic Bhd.

So, I see a lot of personnel changes. I hope that it is an indication of company making progress and out of PN17.
Keep me and others posted.
______________________________-
KUALA LUMPUR (June 25): Scomi Energy Services Bhd chief executive officer Hilmy Zaini Zainal is resigning from the top post effective June 30 due to “personal reasons”, the group said in bourse filing today.
He will be succeeded by Scomi Group Bhd’s independent non-executive director Amirul Azhar Baharom effective July 1, according to a separate filing.
Amirul Azhar, 46, currently also serves as the independent non-executive chairman of UMS-Neiken Group Bhd and as independent non-executive director of Rohas Tecnic Bhd.

Tomorrow they will start mooring a tanker to the Kraken FPSO. Means that there is income for BAB, albeit not as much as there should be.
___________________________________________________________
The current position of INGRID KNUTSEN is at North Sea reported 3 hours ago by AIS. The vessel is en route to KRAKEN FPSO, sailing at a speed of 7.5 knots and expected to arrive there on Jun 30, 11:00. The vessel INGRID KNUTSEN (IMO: 9649225, MMSI 235103057) is a Crude Oil Tanker built in 2013 (10 years old) and currently sailing under the flag of United Kingdom (UK).

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9649225

What goes up, will come down ...

The price action does NOT make sense. It should have dropped following the anouncement. As the opposite happened, it appears that the stock price is controlled by insiders with advanced knowledge. Not a level playing field for all investors.

I actually had a buy order that I cancelled in the morning before open. That is what prudent investor would do.

Wow, this Datuk sure is not controlling his appetite.
Should he not, as a datuk, wear a white jacket and a sash ?
I looked at datuk photos on internet, and almost all had white outfits with sash.

I walked by the sea horse statue in Miri waterfront and there I see it.
Carimin's office.
Pretty low key. Looks like a budget hotel.
But that is a good thing. They do not waste shareholders' money.

You are absolutely right, Nicky. Such contracts would be signed in the host country to show respect to locals. There is usually a visit of a top company guy, meeting with the president who wants to be involved in delivering good news. Photo op.
I go by your timeline of 2 months. Your timeline of CO2 was correct. Will give us more time to accumulate shares on the cheap.

This guy,, Patrick Pouyanné is in KL, is a good sign. Still, better to act prudently. Wait for anouncement. There will be a run up before it is issued.

A few will be selling the news if positive anouncement. So another buy opportunity Anyway, it is just EPC contract, no long term charter. Enthusiasm may not be for long. But serves Armada well.

Thank you for putting in the effort. In the end, small investors pay for the profits of those closer to the money source in a 'zero net gain' game.

It went down from 63 to 43 following the incident. Loss of 20 sens.
50% of that loss is due to material damage (10 sens).
50% is due to loss of confidence and anticipation of possible further problems (10 sens).

Now it recovered 60% of capacity. That is 60% of material damage recovered, or 6 sens. We reached 0.49.

All the loss of confidence still remain. We can go short term to maybe 0.53 when Kraken operates at 100%. And that is it. Confidene and trust take years to build up.

Kraken issues will be resolved in weeks. Agree.
How long in your opinion will it take for investors to regain the confidence ?
How long to restore 3 year record of no unplanned shutdowns ?

Many longs here are disappointed we have not recovered 60% of the loss when we have 60% of production at Kraken. Here is my thinking.

Valuation of 63 sens was based on 3 years of nearly perfect production at Kraken and meeting the target. Now this confidence is destroyed. Previous problem of start up mentioned again. Even if we restore production, we will not restore a record of 3 years. That will take time. About 3 years, I would say ... :-) I say fair price will be 55 sens as neutral valuation before confidence is restored.

And no other news will lift the stock with Kraken issue not resolved. Management must prove to shareholders that they can handle it. This is catalyst number 0 on Nick's list. Necessary for other catalysts to work as a precondition.

What an insult it was by the BAB management to tell us about carbon capture while ignoring the pressing issue being discussed for weeks. Interesting what the market reaction should be.

This guy 'Greedy Gary' who gave himself a few million shares in latest AGM should stop giving interviews about carbon capture projects and fix the transformer on the Kraken. No new business releases. Go to your office and start calling electrical warehouses.

If you cannot inject water into existing facility HSP, how can you plan to inject carbon a few years from now, not even having a system designed for it.

Go back to your room Gary, and look after existing business.

Wow, great developent !

Niki, I have been working in oil and gas for 20 years, in engineering and operations area. A lot of experience, including offshore on FPSO's.

I have no contact with anyone at Armada. I had job interview with them once (via skype, with 2 or 3 people), and they appeared professional, organized and technical. Not a mickey mouse institution for sure. I am confident they will deliver on the objective. The counter is so cheap in valuation, it is mindbogling to me. I must try to connect to someone with linkedin. Peace of mind to know what is happening.

Thank you for giving us the full story, Gabriel.

It is good news. As I already wrote here 4 days ago (and before that), several pumps on the topside module 40 could be used to charge the HSP. There are 3 water injections pumps with similar specs, that are available. Now I see it confirmed in writing in the article. So technically, problem has solution. No need to wait for delivery of the transformer without production. Temporary arrangement is possible to maintain income.

The goverment is of course a nuisance, but can be handled with some lawyers and engineers. There will be no impact of 1 billion myr as market expects.
_____________________________________________________________________________-
Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BERHAD

3 days ago | Report Abuse

I would like to remind everyone that HSP does NOT have a transformer because it is HYDRAULIC (not electric as ESP).
HSP downhole pump is driven by a water turbine, also located downhole, coupled to it.
There is a pump with a transfromer called HSP POWER PUMP that pumps water to this turbine.
This pump is located on module M40 on the topside. That module has many injection pumps that can inject 225 kbpd.
So there are probably many similar pumps with transformers that could be 'creatively' used to start up.

When you are down and out comes another trouble. Government regulator ...
-----------------------------

The UK’s Health & Safety Executive (HSE) is examining the events that led to the shutdown several weeks ago of the Kraken offshore oilfield in the UK North Sea, which field operator EnQuest has still not acknowledged.

An HSE spokesperson told Upstream the agency is aware of the Kraken incident and is “currently looking into the circumstances leading to the shutdown”.

@MM78,
My post is fully made up. It is what I THINK that happened. However, it is based on my observation of Oil and Gas industry and on a prevailing safety theory. For every one substantial (material) incident, there are 10+ minor ones that had been ignored. So in a way I am glad that the 'cat is out of the bag' and company now has to step up and fix problem. Good for us, long term.

______________________________________
But those things do not happen without warning signs. I think that ...
1. Transformers were running hot ....

I do not know future performance of Armada.
I do not know if Kraken will achieve 95% efficiency next quarters.

But I am confident transformer issue will be solved. It is now very visible to investors and management.

Prepare ourselves for something else.

No news is bad news during shut in.
No news is good news when there is already production going on.

I think public worries now that the last transformer will break. Quiet is good.

Everybody at Bumi Armada pretends to be surprised by the transformer failure. But those things do not happen without warning signs. I think that ...
1. Transformers were running hot so people kept door open, and some posters peeled off the wall due to being warped by heat
2. There was an annoying buzzing sound and clicking, much louder than in the other electrical rooms
3. You could sense the sour 'transformer' smell closer to the units. By the vents of the transformer enclosure, you could nearly taste it, not just smell.
4. During pump switching smoke was observed
5. One transformer failed but nothing was done about it. 'One off event,' they said.
6. Eventually an operator expressed his concern about critical equipment health. Unit started to give trouble and malfunction warning light. Manager asked him what he was planning to do about it. And he said meeting was for productive discussion, not for complaining. The guy learnt to keep quiet.

Then one day, May 20, another transformer failed. They new that Manager would not like it, so they tried with the third one without much investigating ...

Egg at the tip of the horn ? I love this pearl of wisdom.
I need to learn it.

But that was the case all the time, we just did not know about it.
And nothing was done to fix it.
Every day there is work going on to solve this problem now, while BA still gets paid.
Not the worse case scenario.

Made on basis of official information submitted to the UK Gov. May not be up to date.
___________________________

EnQuest’s Kraken Field Description
EnQuest’s Kraken Field is in the northern North Sea in UKCS Block 09/02b, approximately 126 kilometres (km) east of the nearest UK coastline and approximately 46 km west of the UK/Norway median line, in a water depth of between approximately 108 metres (m) and 125 m.

The Kraken Area is developed as three separate fields, Kraken North, Kraken Central and Kraken South. A total of 14 horizontal production wells and 11 horizontal water injector wells are tied back to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO). Because it is a ‘heavy oil’ development, all the production wells require artificial lift using Hydraulic Submersible Pumps (HSPs), which are powered from the FPSO.

The production wells are tied-back to four production manifolds, each connected to two production flowlines, a HSP power fluid flowline and a control umbilical tied-back to the FPSO; and the water injection wells are tied-back to three water injection manifolds, each connected to a single water injection flowline and a control umbilical tied-back to the FPSO.
Oil is exported via a shuttle tanker on a fortnightly basis. The anticipated field life is 25 years, and the maximum recoverable reserves are estimated to be 185.2 million standard barrels (MMstb) or 24.72 million tonnes of heavy oil. Based on the projected P10 (highest) recovery rate, it is estimated that oil production in the first year of approximately 11,100 tonnes per day (t/d), increasing in the second year to approximately 11,900 t/d, will be gradually decreasing to approximately 819 t/d by 2039.

The facilities are gas deficient from start up, and power demand is initially met using the associated gas and crude oil as fuels, However, EnQuest proposed to import gas via the Bressay / Vesterled pipeline system from 2018. For most of the field life, the FPSO will require approximately 240 t/d of crude oil or 2.8 million to 3.1 million cubic metres (m³) of imported gas as fuel.

Reservoir is already depleted. 50% of capacity is the new 100%. Nobody will attempt to produce 80 Boepd any more. Your guess is as good as mine about what can be achieved.
One note is that there are 3 x 33% charge pumps (each with transformer). So even 1 pump is capable of 80 / 3 = 26.7 Boepd. That is good enough, these days. I recall production was not high lately, though availability was 95%.

Even at 33% we are relatively ok, no comparing to shut in. At least reservoir is not deteriorating, pipes are cleared of plugs, doglegs are avoided, corrosion prevented to some extend, etc.

So, they have ONLY 1 (one) healthy transformer on the Kraken, that is online now. 3 other failed. One failed likely long ago, another on May 20, and one the day after, when restarting.
That is only best guess. But it is all we have. Anouncement is purposely vague.

Now, it is fun to live on the edge, isn't it ? Production may stop at any time and there will be absolutely no mean to restore it. But there is some positive too. While FPSO is producing, the procurement and operations people are making calls, emailing, catching up with friends. They may be even calling in a favor. Search is on. So replacement will be found eventually. My bet is they find replacement or fix one before the last one fails. And every day is working in our favor. With shut in, every day was increasing our loss. That is changing loss into a possible win.

I would like to remind everyone that HSP does NOT have a transformer because it is HYDRAULIC (not electric as ESP).
HSP downhole pump is driven by a water turbine, also located downhole, coupled to it.
There is a pump with a transfromer called HSP POWER PUMP that pumps water to this turbine.
This pump is located on module M40 on the topside. That module has many injection pumps that can inject 225 kbpd.
So there are probably many similar pumps with transformers that could be 'creatively' used to start up.

This FPSO is NOT going anywhere. Problem will be fixed. All equipment downhole is OK, so no need for well intervention. Topside equipment at North Sea can be efficiently procured as there are many assets an services nearby.

The only news that market is interesting in is the restart of Kraken.
Any other good news woud be in fact a catastrophic waste. No significant impact on share price with the prolong shut in.

Why bother with new contract if you cannot operate an existing project, that would be the concern of investors that I agree with. The shut is has been going on for too long.

In my opinion, top management of BAB made many mistakes in the past. There is crisis after crisis. Impairment. Sale. Litigation. They do NOT focus on the performance. Greedy Gary has only free share bonus on his mind.

However, there are 1000 of employees, many dedicated. They make things happen when management is NOT in their way.


_____________________________________________________
Hope it can wait until shut in is resolved.
Some good news to share. Two project announcements are imminent:

1. Floating Carbon Capture & Storage (to be announced in June 2023)
2. Cameia FPSO EPSCC (to be announce by July 2023)

Once I can get some spare money, I will be investing here. This company is on my horizon. I am with you. Not many gold mines you can buy for less per share.

Another positive news for Armada ...

North Sea oil stocks rise as UK says promises to axe windfall tax, depending on oil prices

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1017449/north-sea-oil-stocks-rise-as-uk-says-promises-to-axe-windfall-tax-depending-on-oil-prices-1017449.html

Can someone please enlighten me ? Why is that group coming over to post negative messages after negative news ? I saw them come a few times in the past, pre covid run up was the period of their activity. Then I saw them on other forums when there was a distress situation. I have no time to read them. How they find time to post that garbage ? They usually pick up some story from google search and run with it to fill the volume, still take time.

Initially I thought they were shorts. But that is not easy to make money.

1. Are they maybe causing problems to companies so that someone will pay them to leave ?

2. Or they accumulate slowly knowing price will go up when things /they go quiet ... ?

I tend to think it is the 1. above.

No idea what type of transformer. Such info not available in public domain. I read somewhere it was oil filled, but in a comment, not document. No matter what type, it can be procured. Yes, the vendor will tell you that there is a queue of 6 months. But if you ask him to call warehouses, brokers, partners, colleagues to find you one, he will. Worked for me. Sure you have to offer him something. Like ensure his previous outstanding bill is paid, or that he sends 3 people to your site with the kit for 1 week to install it. This will be done by phone, so that there is no email trail of sensitive issues :-) when you say, buddly, I really need this kit, help me out .... and he will.
I am now very diligently trying to get info about restarting, and hope it goes ahead. But I need to stop it. I am NOT being paid for work on this project. It is just investment for me. I want to get out of it.

Kumar, I thought initially these were pumps for moving liquid in tanks, but that would be shutdown. As they say, SHUT IN, we have situation with downhole pumps which are in the wells. Shut in is for wells. Now, EnQuest is involved as I believe they own these pumps.
Only last year I worked with HSP pumps inside the tanks for export, stripping, maintenance and transfer I realized they were simple as no motor. I thought initially they were broke in our debacle. They can be easily changed. FPSO has a spare on board. Nobody would report it.
Now I realize it is NOT the case. Downhole pump situation makes it more difficult. But it is just transformer, not the pump.

Based on my experience and a lot of reading around I believe that:
1. There is NO Shutdown of facility. Only shut in. That is per BAB anouncement. They cannot do much maintenance without advance time notification of so called turnaround contractors (TAR). This unplanned maintenance job is sugarcoating and PR thing. In the end they have no spares, crews, plans, etc.
2. They have 2 other healthy transformers used for VSD (variable speed drives). They can be used for the HSP pumps for introduction of hydrocarbons from wells. Will not be full production to be safe for a while.
3. Transformers that failed are being repaired. Parts or spare transformers are under way from Esberg, Denmark. This is by marine traffic systems. Transformer is a simple and common equipment, and you can use similar if needed in reduced mode. They can risk manage it. Like smaller transformer but more protection, etc. There is a process of Risk Assessment, can be done in 2-3 days.

My bet is that it will be over within a month. Production decreased. Impact on earnings minmal. Cost also minimal. Transformer is in 100k 's of dollar. They can even get used. Most damage is due to lost confidence and bad info management. Financig cost may go up, clients may be concerned. Reputation lost is worth dollars.

LM, short info,

Shut in means that the wells are closed.
Shut down means that the toposide FPSO systems are not in operation.

During shut ins all the topside systems can still operate in some minimum mode by recirculating the hydrocarbons. That way, re - introducing hydrocarbons is easy.

Hot start up is when you restart equipment right after the trip, with all systems still under pressure and temperature. Cold start up is from scratch, usually after maintenance. Those terms are NO LONGER used as cold LNG complicates things.

There are 2 possible scenarios now:
1. They may have isolated one train, still operating in recirculation on train B for quick re-start after trip.
2. They did full plant wide shutdown for the ease of maintenance. Then you can do group isolation and service all equipment without worry about hydrocarbons kit by kit. So they could do a lot of maintenance during full shut down However, for that you may need full specialized crew of dozens of people and a lot of planning is required.

Hope not too much info.

We already lost 1 billion myr. So to get to one billion in 500k USD increments, I think you need about 500 days per your data too, according to HLIB

1 000 million / 0.5 mln -day / 4 (myr to USD) = 500 days

So we lost again 1.5 years of revenue per market cap.

Calculation in ringit (2 mln ringit per day)

1,000 mln / 2 mln-day = 500 days

According to the SoP Valuation by CIMB, Kraken contributes 12 sens to the value of BAB at 69 sens end of year. We already lost 18 sens. So market already priced in no production until the end of 2024, or next 18 months.
If Kraken is started and operates fully next month, there will be necessity to reprice this inconsistency.

Getting quieter here. Looks like selling wave is gone. Soon the newcomer here will disappear. Unless some of them still have to cover up. And things will return to balance soon. There is only as much as you can achieve by senseless talking.

Just to give you an idea, when I worked as a supervisor of a utility plant, an operator destroyed the transformer that was tied to transfer switch between normal power supply and emergency power. He did it by flipping switch on transfer station on and off a few times rapidly. Like a kid playing with a lightbulb. (The guy thought the power was not transferring quickly enough, so he re-engaged.) 'On and off' till it burned out. That is another way to destroy an equipment quickly. How things happen in reality.

The new transformer and switch set was 50 thousand dollars. That was 20 years ago. But still, estimate by the IB that cost of repair transformer on AK is 50 million is 1000 times to high.

There is so much not taken into consideration in the Kraken story. HSP are downhole pumps, meaning inside wells, located at the depth of 3.5 km under the sea in the oilfield. Normally, and I do not know contract, but normally, they belong to client who owns the field, EnQuest. Normally, they are electric and named ESP. Hence they need transformers. But here they are hydraulic. They were likely installed in field before FPSO arrived by SPX Flow. Bumi Armada hooked up the FPSO to those wells with pumps inside down below, and now provides hydraulic power (hot water under pressure) to spin those pumps by means of water turbines connected to the pumps. This water heats crude oil and enables it to flow to FPSO through risers, providing a lift. Otherwise, wax could plug tubing in the well . I bet from my work offshore that EnQuest Well Department operates those pumps from the Kraken FPSO. There is always Well Dept, with specialized people that make more money and have better work conditions. They are sitting separately and protect their job. If pump seized and blowed the transformer, it may be operator's responsibility. Maybe there was wax build up already, and power liquid pumped by FPSO by means of HPU, or Hydraulic Power Unit, likely connected to transformer that broke could not handle it.

I doubt that Enquest would allow Armada to operate their wells. Well intervention is way more costly and complicated than fixing things on FPSO. I am sure they will be keen to get things resolve and avoid dispute. They may know more that Armada about what happened. And we are lucky it is the transformer onboard and NOT the pump downhole that is broken.

So, the Kraken will be restarted this week. Workaround in place. No change to anual production guidance for FPSO.

I have a feeling that this 'Greedy Gary' tried to create some panic selling. This guy has no decency in his money apetite while disregarding all others on the team. Even 1.5 million extra per year (resolution 8) is not enough.

I read this CIMB report, and it is nonsense in my opinion. All main accidents are actually predicted and mitigation planned in advanced before even operation starts. Some real emergencies that I personally experienced to give you example:
1. Loss of containment and hydrocarbon leak that could have resulted in explosion and total destruction of FPSO ( I was onboard when it happened).
2. Crane tipping and killing people who assemble below for safety talk (I saw it happen on asset nearby).
3. Terrorist attack and killing of 27 staff by security forces while reacting to it. Mostly by shooting at camp from helicopter by the army at terrorist and hostages. I was on a different asset with same company, so know how it progressed.

Explosions, fires, ship collisions, flooding full decks of ship by cooling water, etc, that I know from Safety Cases are other emergencies.

Nowhere I saw transformer failure as a MAE (Main Accident Event). Most pumps are in sets with1 online and 1 on standby. Surely if critical, not just 2, there may be 3 to be safe side by side. So are the transformers. And you can always get a new transformer from warehouse, fly it with helicopter and have it installed by electricians that just wire it in. No need to break containment. I cannot see the big problem, unless Gary wants to buy more shares on the cheap or it is some ridiculous lack of communication and managing the information bordering in the circus.

I remember similar thing happened about 3 years ago, there was an incident on a different asset, panic resulted and shares dropped by 10 sens or so. Seeems another event shaping up here. Act as you want to protect yourself. This is just my personal opinion.

The way problem of pump transformer is solved is as follows. Vendor is brought in and he:
1. Pressess and HOLDS 'start' button for 5 seconds
2. Upon hearing a click and 'acknowledge light' going on he depresses 'confirm' button
3. 'Operate' switch now has to be flipped to 'auto.' ESP pump is working.

After that, supervisor will laminate the instructions above and stick it on the PLC Panel. That will solve the problem as operator did not know he had to HOLD the button for a few seconds. There will be report that operating parameters were adjusted, e.g. timer set to new delay, etc., to save face for all. Cost of all with emergency service call about 5k USD.

The danger is that instead of fixing it, the management will hire engineers and support team who have NO idea about the kit. They will discuss phased solutions for a few weeks, drafting plans, mobilizing crews, getting planned activities rescheduled rather than starting up the damned pump. We will count the losses as per Nick's estimates. Gary Ch, the CEO will give himself 3 million USD instead of 1.5 mln as he got the task team going and he will be credited for getting things done.

I have seen both scenarios play out many times. Let us hope they just fix the damn pump.
PS
I made up the steps, but that is ususally how things happen and what I saw or did.

There will be no big impact from this ESP debacle. That is my bet. I worked on a large EPC project as a vendor coordinator last year. Big hydrocarbon joint venture. I got 35 critical vendors to be on standby for the start up. 10 of them I brought in, as there were problems using their equipment. In 8 cases, or about 80%, nothing was wrong. Vendors came and just looked, pressed switches, powerd up and down, got things going. In only 2 cases they had to physically do something. Like replace an electronic board. I learnt that the fears and concerns were usually exaggerated. Sometimes just waiting a few days to 'assess' the situation resulted in solutions found through alternate ways.
Let us see tomorrow.

How come there is no iFast here ? It is a brokerage that grows fast.