Property and development sector account for 30% of the GDP of China. These sectors are bad at the present time. It will take a while for the whole Chinese economy to adjust and recover. The Chinese population turned cautious after the pandemic lockdowns, and they are cutting their consumption and saving more. The slow down of the Chinese economy will affect its trading partner countries too.

General trading: anticipating moves in the market as a whole.

Selective trading: picking out stocks which will do better than the market in the short term.

Benjamin Graham warned what NOT to do. He did not consider that either general trading or selective trading has any place in investment practice. Both of them are essentially *speculative* in character because they depend for success not only on the ability to foretell specifically what is going to happen, but on the ability also to do this more cleverly than a host of competitors in the field.

The real money in investing will have to be made - as most of it has been in the past - not out of buying and selling, but out of OWNING AND HOLDING securities, receiving interest and dividends, and benefiting from their long-term increase in value.

A mad-hatter Calvin is. Telling everyone and everyday, his excellent foresight (eagle eye) and how "clever" he is. Humility is not among his character. ;-)

For someone with a long term portfolio with a great track-record, calvin is disadvantaged when pitted against this person. Among the stocks in the portfolio, there are many with multiple baggers. Moreover, dividends of millions have been realised over the many years. Of course, the portfolio values did decline in certain period of its long tenure, but a value investor who knows his companies with great businesses need not have to sell. Over the long term, the market does realise the true values of these growing companies.

Most money in the market is made by sitting still, in the market; rather than trying to time the market.

Poor calvin.

>>>
Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

2022-12-20 22:02 | Report Abuse

PPB
2000 RM2.00
2022 RM17.18

TSH
2000 RM 0.74
2022 RM 1.04

The opportunistic cost of not investing in a great company for the long term is indeed huge.

Stock
Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

2022-12-20 21:53 | Report Abuse

tsH
the latest of many many promotions in i3 by calvintan.

Why is he mentioning Robert Kuok and PPB in his promotion of TSH? If he has been smart, he should have been invested in PPB for decades today. I have been a long term investor in PPBOil and FFM for years. Today, I continue to hold my investment in PPB.

>>>

:-)

Of course, we have heard his story of selling 8 houses to invest into his best find (NETX) ever. Hope he will share his honest lessons on this too.

KLK:

It is a great company. However, a great company may not be a great investment.

ROE 5.83
ROA 2.75
ROTC 6.66
ROIC 3.87

DY latest 2.68%
Price RM 22.42 / share

Huge plantation stock. Growth will be slow by nature of its size. Well managed. Trustworthy management, that continues to manage the business diligently and rewarding the shareholders.

We will just have to focus on our investing. So much noise from a Singaporean. :-) He is particuarly disturbed by NETX.

calvintaneng should be more humble. I am so much richer than him. It is always better to be humble.

TSH was a hugely indebted company. It had no choice but to dispose its assets to pare down its huge debts. The good oil palm price allowed the company to dispose its assets in a favourable market environment.

It has pared down its debts substantially.

Nevertheless, going forward, its recurrent earnings will be like its past. One should not expect great changes. Of course, the savings in interest expenses are obvious.

The plantation (oil palm) had a good run for 2 years. Its exceptional profit margins have contracted back to its prepandemic level.

How should you analyse TSH as an investor?

Always look at its recurrent income.
Extraordinary income is one-off and non-recurring.

@ RM 0.99 per share, its market cap is RM 1.37 B

Sept 2023 Latest
Cash 328 m
STD 290 m
LTD 126 m
Total Debt 416 m
Net Debt 88 m

TSH financial statements

RM (millions)
Item ... 2022 ... 2021 ... 2020 ... 2019 ...2018
Cash ... 382 ... 297 ... 163 ... 126 ... 108
STD ...395 ... 523 ... 691 ... 537 ,,, 663
LTD ... 166 ...591 ... 623 ... 898 ... 793
TD ... 561 ... 1114 ... 1314 ... 1435 ... 1356
NetD .. 179 ... 817 ... 1151 ...1309 ... 1248

NOI ... 316 ... (91) ... (34) ... (36) ... (24)
PBT ... 507 ... 199 ... 98 ... 43 ... 74

Latest qtrly PBT earnings
Item ... Sept23 ... Jun 23 ... Mar 23 ... Dec 23
PBT ... 54.5 ... 24 ... 59.1 ... 56.1

THE GREATER FO OL BLOWS BIG, BIGGER & BIGGEST BALLOON STOCKS (LATER ALL GO BURST!!!)


SOME TYPES OF GREATER FO OL STOCKS



1) STOCKS WITHOUT REAL EARNINGS JUST

Pumped by Rumour
All chase it into a big, bigger & biggest bubble.

2) Political Stocks
Companies that have poor fundamental also chased up

3) ALL KINDS OF GURUs TOUTING THEIR NEXT LIMIT UP STOCKS

All the Wat erfish, Newbies, So rchai, Sot ong, Ik an B ilis chase & chase

4) GREATER FO OLS OVERPAYING FOR INFERIOR STOCKS OR CHASE GOOD STOCKS INTO OVERVALUTION AND END UP BLOWING THE BIGGEST BUBBLE!

This one also a great danger!

==========




EVENTUALLY THE BUBBLE MUST BURST BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL EARNINGS (OR SMALL EARNINGS) BUT ONLY THIN AIR & RUMOUR



BETTER WAKE UP NOW!!!



NETX:

No earnings
Promoted by our friend from Singapore, who sold 8 houses to speculate in this company
1 sen went up to 8 sen per share, and promoter said it was cheap, as it was valued at 40 sen per share
Interestingly, hope his son learned from his valuable NETX lessons and to avoid repeating the same.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/231180?_gl=1*gy5l7f*_ga*ODM5NjIyNjQuMTY5NTY1Nzc4MQ..*_ga_MNBHX2J50S*MTcwNDM1NzI2OS42LjEuMTcwNDM1OTQxOC41NS4wLjA. THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CALVIN WANTS TO TELL ALL AT NETX (0020) , I AM KEEPING ALL NEXT SHARES TIGHTLY, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 01:40 PM
Dear Friends, Investors & Traders

NETX (0020) IS A STOCK WHOSE TIME HAS COME

CALVIN IS EXTREMELY BULLISH ON NFCP NASTIONWIDE FIBERISATION STOCKS ESPECIALLY NEXT, OPCOM & REDTONE

SO FAR CALVIN IS HOLDING 100% OF NETX SHARES HE BOUGHT TIGHTLY

CALVIN HAS NOT SOLD A SINGLE SHARE OF NEXT YET

>>>
SOME TYPES OF GREATER FOOL STOCKS



1) STOCKS WITHOUT REAL EARNINGS JUST

Pumpep by Rumour

Syndicates churn stocks to Top Volumes

Stock brokers join in to spread the hot hot news

All chase it into a big, bigger & biggest bubble.

>>>>


Hmm... reminds us of Netx😀

Reminds us of NETX

Coastal: Good company. Competitive environment. Cyclical. Asset heavy. Capital intensive.

Nestle: Great company. Economic moat - wide. Well managed.
Slow grower (in line with population and economic growth)
Dividend growth investing

PMHolding: Gruesome. Asset play

Netx: Gruesome Avoid

Allianz

Good company
Slow grower
Dividend growth stock

Pentamaster:
Good company. (Gruesome in the past)
Fast grower.

Scientex: slow grower, cyclical-growth

Speculative counter. At one time, it supplied headphones to Apple. A few years ago, it was speculated that its latest headphone to be launched in time for the Christmas season would be a great hit with consumers. Its share price was just above RM 1.00. Alas, that product did not sell well. I think Apple launched another product or something similar. After that, Salutica's business went down a lot. Its share pirce followed too. It dropped to close to 50 sen per share.

A few months back, for reasons "unknown", its share price shot up to RM 1.30 or slightly higher than that. Those who sold were lucky to be able to cash out of this counter.

The court case will be a drawn out affair for now.

Sadly, very few good/great companies in Bursa for long term investing.

DC Healthcare: IPO speculative

Insas: Asset play,

Padini: slow grower, dividend.

MYEG: growth stock, speculative

OSK: slow grower (recent years), dividends

Capital A: turnaround, cyclical.

AAX: turnaround, cyclical

High risk, turnaround rarely turns. Or may take a long time to turnaround.

United Plantation: cyclical, slow grower (cyclical growth)
KLK: cyclical, slow grower (cyclical growth)

TSH: cyclical play

GENM: Turnaround

PBB : stalwart

Growers:
Slow growers
Stalwarts
Fast growers

Cyclicals
Asset plays
Turnarounds


Please share one name of your stock and which category it belongs to. A stock can belong to one or more categories.

Zero tolerance to Corruption (clap)

Stock Name
UTDPLT
KMLOONG
KLK
BKAWAN
KSENG
HSPLANT
INNO
TSH
IOICORP
SOP
SWKPLNT
GENP
FAREAST
NSOP
SIMEPLT
CHINTEK
UMCCA
CEPAT
MHC
BPLANT
KLUANG
BLDPLNT
SBAGAN
THPLANT
GOPENG
RSAWIT
KRETAM
TDM
FGV

>>>
To paraphrase Buffet's advise to investors:
1. When you buy, don't count on a good selling price.
2. Rely instead on a purchase price so attractive, that even a mediocre sale price gives good results.
This applies to average or better quality business.
Because if the business economics is terrible, then, even a rock bottom price is too much to pay, if its value is deteriorating and more lower prices are coming.

>>>

Agree.

Stays with great companies.

Buy it at cheap / fair price.

Downside is protected, the upside will take care of itself over a long period of investing.

Not a 100% guarantee but at a very high degree of probability.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/cube/profile/DividendGuy67

I like reading his posts. 👋

Undergoing dialysis?

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CALVIN WANTS TO TELL ALL AT NETX (0020) , I AM KEEPING ALL NEXT SHARES TIGHTLY, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 01:40 PM

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/231180?_gl=1*gy5l7f*_ga*ODM5NjIyNjQuMTY5NTY1Nzc4MQ..*_ga_MNBHX2J50S*MTcwNDM1NzI2OS42LjEuMTcwNDM1OTQxOC41NS4wLjA.

Looks like KYY has a check list he uses for stock selection. Even then, this did not prevent him from some big mistakes. From my observation of his past actions, it was not easy for him to stick to his check list strategy. At times, he deviated, perhaps even carried away. In any case, these aren't important.

Protecting the downsides, ensures that the upsides take care of themselves.

KYY, thanks for sharing.

Happy New Year.

>>>
Posted by Sslee > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

By the way do nothing is not an option. You have to monitor internal and external factor, the macro and micro economic factor that will impact the forward earning of the company.


>>>

I spent many hours listening to Bloomberg and CNBC over many years. Did this influence or help in my long term investing? Not really. The macroeconomic and the microeconomic issues and the talking heads mattered little, if at all, in my investing. Over the long term, keeping investing simple and sticking to a good philosophy and method are all that mattered.

Keep it simple:

Know the company you invest in.
The business must have economic moat, preferably with a long runway.
The management must be trustworthy.
Buy at a fair price or bargain price.

Hold and hold for the very, very, very long term.

https://apollowealth.com/wp-content/uploads/DJIA-1896-2016.jpg?fbclid=IwAR3eYQ9MgFQ6vLqAqoK5K1dwFaXrD08TTKmQX6zQb_dNLEnF7C-d6RClcaM


Click here for the chart

120 Years of stock market history in one chart

Here are 15 things I learned from 120 years of stock market history:

Lesson 1: Invest for the long term. In the short run, stock returns can be very volatile, but they are very robust in the long run.

Lesson 2: On average, you double your money in the stock market every 10 years.

Lesson 3: In the long run, stocks are less risky than bonds. For 20-year holding periods, stock returns have never fallen below inflation.

Lesson 4: Don’t try to time the market. Time in the market is way more important than timing the market.

Lesson 5: Our world continuously changes. Avoid companies who are highly exposed to rapid changing industry dynamics.

Lesson 6: This time it’s not different. History doesn't repeat itself. But it often rhymes.

Lesson 7: Let your winners run. Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.

Lesson 8: Low stock prices are great for investors.

Lesson 9: Invest in companies that translate most earnings into free cash flow. Earnings are an opinion, cash is a fact.

Lesson 10: In the long term stock prices always follow earnings growth.

Lesson 11: Look at the equity premium. Over the past 200 years, the equity premium (the spread between the return of stocks and return of government bonds) has averaged between 3% and 3.5%.

Lesson 12: In general, small cap stocks outperform. Smaller stocks generate a higher return on the stock market. Between 1926 and 2006, the smallest decile stocks compounded at a CAGR of 14.0% compared to 10.3% for the S&P500.

Lesson 13: Cheaper stocks outperform the market. Based on the price-earnings ratio, the 20% cheapest stocks outperformed the S&P500 by 3.2% between 1957 and 2006.

Lesson 14: Do not invest in IPOs. From 1968 through 2000, a buy-and-hold strategy on IPOs underperformed the index in 29 out of 33 years that were studied.

Lesson 15: The stock market is a leading indicator for the economy. On average, the lead time between what happens on the stock market and what happens in our economy is equal to 6 months.
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