Have you heard of the 7 foot man who drowned crossing a river 5 foot deep on average? Its not enough to survive the market on average, but one must also survive the absolute bottom.

You are not the only person who know how to set cut loss. If everyone set cut loss, that's how you see flash crash happen.

In any event, cut loss is just one of the things that i find very stupid.

Are you telling me, you hold a stock and when someone offers you RM20 per share to buy you won't sell, but if someone offered you RM19, you would?

Imagine if you own a house. And a real estate agent comes and said someone wanted to buy your house for RM800k. And you go, I'm not interested, but if someone ever offered RM600k, please sell it. And the more it drop, the more of my houses you should sell.

Siao one.

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stockraider I m saying...his comparison between cash and margin investors....may not show such a big worse off position for margin investors in real life loh....!!

This is bcos he has failed take note...some of the very practical points i have highlighted above mah....!!
28/07/2018 18:16

My position is small. I can wait.

It's cheap enough. Hahahahaha

Very detailed.

But your assumptions are clearly too optimistic.

Feeling a little like gambling haha. Long term wise, mother is touch more attractive.

Also insas div is very little, so warrant still can buy.

if they raise the div, mother will shoot and thus warrant will also shoot, can then sell it to buy the mother lol.

Hmmm, Why would he lie about the margin call?

Everyday he tell whole world to use margin and he always say he use margin.

RM 18mil is less than 13% of his current cost in Jaks. His cost easily more than 150mil, if you got 18mil comfortably you still want to kiam on it?

My guess not enough money as price drop, his margins getting hit and he keep need to put up collateral.

Stock easy to sell when its rising high, hard to sell when falling.

RM18 mil is not piece of cake when your entire net worth tied up in stocks, and you have margin summore.

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Icon8888 again, don't be stupid. think first before you open your mouth

150 mil shares

1 for 2 shares rights issue of warrants

meaning he needs to subscribe for 75 mil Warrants at 25 sen

that is RM18 mil

not a small amount for you and me, but piece of cake for KYY

if necessary, he can even renounce in open market
27/07/2018 10:55

Translation, because price is so low, risk is so high! Only when price is high that risk is low!

I am seriously considering Jaks, but i did not think it was worth the money at 0.9 or even 1.8. But hmmmm.


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PiddleMinger Icon, I admire your balls. I love bottom fishing, but JAKS has crossed my risk threshold with all the margin calls. The price can swing hugely either way in the next few days. I'll stay in the sidelines for now.
27/07/2018 14:02

Bought a bit.

Daiman is an NTA play. OK business, fantastic assets, very low valuations, honest management.

Haha to be more precise.

They are either losing money or making low returns on investments. They would better serve their shareholders and themselves by either turning it into a condo, office building.

Or just selling it and giving back the money.

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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Jul 26, 2018 09:30 PM | Report Abuse

Not all hotels losing money.

TA hotels are not.

Even local ones like Landmark is not. They contribute healthy cashflows to complement the property development business.

how about your Daiman? as i recalled, they own a hotel in JB run by Doubletree Hilton.

Bought some warrants haha. Now have stock and warrants.

Kyy is selling Jaks haha. The guy kena margin call is it. Fairly certain he lost money on jaks so far.

If price good, your value will be no good!

The only thing i dislike about OSK and most companies in Bursa is the damn hotels. All lose money except for shangrila.

Its either a shit business, or someone is korek money out or shngri-la is a god like operator in hotels.

KYY better be right, cause there is no way he can exit from this investment.

The moment i buy, im in the money! Haha


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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Jul 25, 2018 08:55 PM | Report Abuse

no advice from me because im not in the money. lol

85 sen cost, now its RM1.

That is 17.6% gain or about 12.45% compounding. Pretty ok. I don't see what is there to complain about.

But the real question is what is it really worth. I think its about RM2.5. Im fine with buying more.


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Posted by TheContrarian > Jul 25, 2018 08:06 PM | Report Abuse

I entered OSK about 17 months ago around CNY last year at 1.40. Since then there has been a one for two bonus issue and I think three payment of dividends. My effective cost after bonus and dividends should be around 85 sen. I bought into OSK mainly because of its 10% holding in RHB. I am tired of waiting and am thinking of taking profit soon. Anyone wish to advise me?

He will sell at RM3

cancellation of the NFP between tnb and tm is a pretty good thing for Time, now, they have the chance to work with TNB. Lets see.

Go buy it lah, mah no block d loh.

I will make you trillionaire, and you can go show off to everyone how you are richer than jeff bezos.

You go open a company. Issue 1 million shares.

Sell one share to me at RM1, suddenly you are not worth RM999,999.

Then pay me RM10k, and i will buy one more share from you for RM2. Now, you are worth RM1,999,996. And your total investment only RM9,997, ROI of more than 20000%

Then you pay me RM20k, and ill buy one more share at RM100. Now your paper gain is RM99,999,700 and cost only RM19,797.

I guarantee you, your share price will keep rocket up.

Interesting.

Go casino. You will lose less money.



Posted by 100000024310431 > Jul 19, 2018 12:29 PM | Report Abuse

dun care how good OLH manager he business ,we just want the share rocket up.

Interesting pick.

Only thing is got better business and similar price out there. But definitely worth keeping track off.

Haha suddenly a hive of activity again.

My liihen cost is 3.8 and latitud 4.6. Almost bought a little during the big drops, but had better things to buy. Dont think i'll buy any, but good luck everyone!

As always, if one were to feel very strongly that i should buy more, please show me your investment thesis, im very curious!

Tony does not intend to privatize. Thats the difference. He was just complying with SC ruling.

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html

Markets are dynamic, if prices go up and it becomes more lucrative, more plants will reopen, pushing supply up and prices will go down etc etc.

The only ones in the list i am willing to hold for a very long time or permanently is

1) RCECAP 20000 shares
2) AEONCR 1100 shares
3) TIMECOM 1700 shares

The rest, its cheap and i don't mind waiting for the contraction between intrinsic value and price.

I am thinking of starting a 10 year stock pick competition (with some different rules to be more suited) :) would be interesting.

Haha its a decent ish punt.

But i don't like punting or betting on macro-economy or government policies around the world, because i cant and i dont think people can predict it with any high level of consistency.

I go bottoms up, what is a good business at a cheap valuation. And then i study if there is good macroeconomics behind it possibly, or bad ones etc.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration/judge-praises-u-s-efforts-in-reuniting-migrant-families-idUSKBN1KA154

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/steel-production

Historically the assets of steel companies sell for far below book value. For an easy example, sell megasteel.

Occasionally though, you can find someone willing to pay a high price for these assets, or at least assets producing commodities, like saprng. Which is in big trouble.

Wawasan 2020. Well, i'd rather buy more property development companies, its cheaper and more valuable, and will definitely rise in tandem with the economy.

What if Malaysia remove the steel tariff in order for us to have access to cheaper steel and get to wawasan 2020. Mai habis liao?


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CharlesT U read thru their bal sheet? So u only see their debts of rm800m but u didnt their stock, fixed assets?
21/07/2018 14:38

Let me be clear, i dont think Annjoo at this price now is a bad investment, but i think one can find better.

Or at least better in terms of my philosophy.

CharlesT,

Fair point. Why do you think Annjoo is worth RM3.5 to Rm4?

More precisely why would you pay RM2 billion to RM2.2 billion, and take on RM760 million in net debt, for a steel company that makes RM 200 million, on the high end of the cycle.

So in effect, you are paying RM2.76 billion to RM2.96 billion for a company that makes RM200 million.

Using current price, if you were buy this company in full, you will need 15 years to make back you money, and this is assuming their record earnings remain.

I am curious to hear your thinking. I hope you have some incisive insight that proves me wrong. As this would provide me an invaluable opportunity to learn.



Charles, I'm always open to new investors, but like i said, only the right kind of investors. And the right kind of investors, is the kind of understand my investment philosophy, the pros and cons.

If they cannot understand, or they think it does not make sense, like you do. I strongly suggest they find the fund manager that suits them, or buy the index. Not public bank unit trust as the fees are too high.

Decent punt.

Yeap, they are better ways to make money than misrepresenting to auntie uncle.

At the end of the day, if you have enough money, money is just numbers on a screen.

I don't want that kind of money.

Here are two articles i wrote on those two.


(CHOIVO CAPITAL) An estimate on the real refinery earnings of (HENGYUAN)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/150917.jsp


(CHOIVO CAPITAL) Lessons from Hengyuan, Petronm and other Oil & Gas related Companies.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/144887.jsp

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hollandking john choivo, i remember the hgyuan story, each gave higher and highr TP, u haven't released the full list.
20/07/2018 11:33.

CharlesT, i guarantee you this.

9 months from now, it wont be in your portfolio, no need talk till 2020. :)

ROIC and ROE is rubbish.

So what if profit or revenue go up, its on the per share basis that counts.

Icon888 recommended Hengyuan at RM6 to RM8. Davidtslim, from RM9 to RM13. Stockraider from RM6 to RM19. Probability from RM 8 to RM19.

Don’t even need to talk about Masteel.

If you followed any of their calls and still held, you would have suffered massive losses. Especially since you are likely to average up and down. Stockraider after selling at RM15. Started buying again and now have average cost of RM10.

Yes, you are right, buying cyclical stocks are the bottom and selling near the top is the way to make money, but that must mean you are able to tell when is the top and when is the bottom.

Nobody recommended HY at RM2, everyone recommended at RM10- Rm18.

At the bottom of a cyclical stock, people don’t think of it as cyclical, but as hopeless. Lionind can hit RM0.2, Masteel RM0.3 pre-split.

At the peak of a cyclical stock, people think of it as brighter future all the way. Hengyuan can hit RM19, with people thinking crack spread fat forever, Masteel RM1.8, thinking construction will boom forever and steel price forever high.

Don’t forget it’s a commodity. Its price has no edge or moat.

Now, what is very clear to me, is that to an extent property development companies are cyclical. And right now, people think property market is dead or need a few years to restart, when they are all still very profitable, profit drop from peak is less than 20% from some, but prices have dropped more than 60-70%

Except, business optimism is up 24% in Q2. Optimism and hope towards our nation is high, people with money all want to come back.

But the stocks are still selling as if they are close to bankrupt and people want to liquidate.

Looks like the bottom of a cyclical stock to me. And I will buy all the way down.

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Heng Yuan moved up from Rm2+ from early 2017 to RM19+ early this year and it's now RM6+...

If u can be part of such cyclical stock at early stage one stock alone can make much more than yr div yield stock

However, if u only join the game at the very final stage then sorry lo

I am not saying that Vitrox is good investment. But valuation is far beyond just P/E or numbers on a screen.
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Valuations matter? Really?

People have lost half their money buying steel counters at PE 8 last year, now trading at PE 3....and people have made 100% gains buying Vitrox at high PE, now PE 30 after making 100% gain.

That is why i don't manage your fund, or funds of people who have completely different philosophy compared to me.

What is a stock if not for a fractional piece of a business?

Are you telling me, if you had RM1.2bil right now in cash, you would buy out the entire company of annjoo, and take on RM800mil in debt?

A company in a cyclical industry with very little moat? The moment the tariff is gone, or china decide to restart some steel factory, the company will lose money until vomit blood.

If the profit drop by half next quarter how? The price drop by 30% straight away. You dare to double up? I know i wouldnt.

Convince me on why ANNJOO is better than say, RCECAP or OSK. If you are right, i will be very eager to change my mind. No point having an ego in the market, the goal is to know whats right, not to be right.


Find out what?

“The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.”

― G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy

I am fully aware investing is far beyond just numbers on a piece of paper. But i don't see how the thesis of ANNJOO is attractive to me.

As a punt, maybe. But remember MASTEEL, HENGYUAN etc etc


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CharlesT

Seeing the above i have to get worried if u managed my fund
20/07/2018 08:21

Jon Choivo, I sincerely hope that u dont have to spend years in stock mkt to find out the above
20/07/2018 08:24

Annjoo, owes 800mil to the bank. The current earning they have is due to tariffs and China cutting down capacity.

Given their record earnings, they will still need at least 4 years to payback the debt.

Entreprise value over earnings is about 10 times.

I think paying 10 times record earnings for a steel company wit zero moat is a fools errand once expected value over the long term is taken into consideration.

A possible punt though, but I'm too lazy to punt and predict prices.

Jayc, is olh a shareholder or not a shareholder? He never take care of himself, is that what you're saying?

Target, no idea what you're saying.

Please, ACCA is for noobs. Hahaha. I come with a higher power.

If you think all auditors are like me, your opinion of an auditor in general is far too high. :)

Most auditors are actually like the general i3 population, gamblers in the market, often failing their calculation of odds and EV completely.

At best, the companies they buy wont go bankrupt, they just fail really badly at the valuation. And suffer permanent loss of capital. They are also often not good judges of quality and moat of business, unless this is a topic they are interested in.

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targetinvest Ya.. alot auditor think sendiri know everything liao.. think gt acca then banyak hebat liao.. in the end.. aizzzzzz mah need to work like dog
19/07/2018 23:05

You calculate wrong.

lets say price does not move for 80 years. But the dividend remains at 6.2%. All dividend is reinvested. Say i invest Rm20,000.

By the end of 80 years, i would have RM2,115,920. 105,800% return. Not a bad result at all.

Considering the goal is to,

1) Not lose money
2) Not forget rule no 1.

For a guy with ben graham as your dp, you seem to have forgotten that.

On your ekovest, your highway makes net after interest RM8mil, you sure the whole highway worth Rm2.8 bil boh? at that price 477 P/E for the highway or 0.02% return.

Tbf, there is a really good chance that mcuh of the debt is not yet utilized for duke 3 etc. but still... :)


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paperplane 80 yrs for 200% return, smart or not smart???
19/07/2018 23:02

Never said i was buying the warrants. :)

but it is a potentially lucrative punt. EV should be positive.

Lol, the guy should just queue 20 million shares to sell at current market price, and have tropicana buy it.

3 fiddy.

At that price, you'd think they are liquidating the property development business.

But its clearly very profitable, with huge land banks being held at low prices.

I also got anak and cucu. Lai lai.

Haha dont matter, wait till i die also no difference. Not like the money going anywhere.

All my investment, dividend and gain all go into market. People like buying shoes. I like buying stocks. Haha

Im younger than him by far.

He want me wait 80 years, i wait with him.

My timeline is forever till i die.

Thing is, more money wont make much changes to my lifestyle. My future wife will just live better i suppose.