GFC? Elections?

I wasnt expecting the run up really. Why would they go up in those times?

And how do you ensure you are being rational instead of rationalizing. That's also a really hard one for me.

The correlation is one that makes sense and does not make sense to me at the same time. In a recession, correlation for everything goes to 1, all drop together. So i don't really pay attention to diversify in terms of industry, just find really good buys, and often they come from different industries haha.

Haha on the weight, really hard man, on one hand you have warren buffet level of weight, like 40% or more in one (amex,in his younger days), or you have super diversification, like yeoman and walter schloss, which is also not that bad of an idea, shows humility, which usually makes you money, assuming you hold long enough.

But like klarman says, it does not make that much sense if you know what is good and what is bad.

But i think if one has a small fund, say 30k or less. 5 stocks is plenty. Only after you break like 150k, should you start to look a little more.

My limit is 30%. I tend to buy too quickly, even for rce which was build over 8 months. Timecom i built up to initially 40% of fund in just 3 days lol.

But after that, i don't sell or resize, just buy other companies until the largest position fall to like 20% max.

As you can see from my portfolio sizing, where top 2 is 51%, and the rest is like split over 24 companies.

I just can't help a good buy, and there is too many, and so many good buy's are hard to compare against another and say its the cheapest or better one, except for a few.





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Fabien Extraordinaire interesting topic. there is really no definitive guideline when come to diversification. my own portfolio construction rule is to own between 12-20 stocks, in stricter terms to have a concentrated portfolio of 15 stocks. having said that, i am currently holding 25 stocks. well, that's my own problem.

it;s just not the numbers really. to protect the downside depends on how you design the portfolio, like stocks chosen should be spread over different industries and the stocks preferably have low correlations, at least to minimse the unsystematic risk.

how much to weight, i would say in direct proportion to how much confidence in each stock. i set my own concentration rule of not more than 20% of portfolio. perhaps im not as confident as Jon. hahaha...
03/07/2018 19:57

I like how you think.

Do you mind telling me what you find interesting, whether for good or bad reasons its fine.

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Posted by RJ87 > Jul 3, 2018 04:33 PM | Report Abuse

"“Know what you own.” You must understand the stock and why you own it, other than the perception that it will go up. People do hours of research when buying a car or refrigerator, but not when buying stocks. They’ll hear a simple stock tip then put thousands of dollars into it. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy why the public does so badly – they don’t believe that a little effort can make a big difference." ~ Peter Lynch

Ini kebodohan of some malaysian investors. Until now, non of the naysayer can actually come back with facts to support their claim. Bodoh like shit.

This is a good read and maybe you can grow abit of grey matter between your eye.
http://www.whatcollegeforgottoteach.com/peter-lynch.html

and I bet 10% of people who see this click the link. 10% of the 10% read to the end. And 10% of the 10% of the 10 percent digest it. 10% of the 10% of the 10% of the 10% start to search for fact and put them into excel sheet. And the only 0.00001% will actually call lionind and ask personally what's going on with their transformer. And they are often the winner.

How sore of a loser a person can be depends on which level 90% he is in. It appears that here are stupid level 5.

Like this.

Guarantee me 10% in one month, i sailang for you.

Whatever left, you take.

Beyond a technical rebound, im not sure if its worth the money.

TM is a stupidly expensive stock whose price drop to Ok-ish.

Haha of course :)

If i drive proton so long still cannot hit more than 6 figures at 26, something is wrong.

If warren buffet can drive his first car till he made 30 million in 1970. I can drive my proton till i make 50 million.

Walmart boss drive 30 year old truck until he die.

I don't intend to teach beyond my articles. Which are written not so much for teaching, but to crystallize my own thinking and thought process, and self filter potential investors.

Investing is actually really simple, but hard. Just read like 5-6 books, and you will have all the investing skill you need. The rest comes from life experience, and perspective, which can be continually forged and sharpened till the day to you die.

Its the only career where you only get better and more in demand as you get older. Assuming you're actually good.

In any event, if a six sigma event happens where for 30 years the price of all my stock buys do not move up, but only down.

So be it, i know the value of what i bought. When you have enough money, money is just numbers on a screen. And i can always keep buying more.

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CharlesT Anyway I kepochi a bit....is yr current fund size more than RM50K?
02/07/2018 19:31


CharlesT U may have to drive Proton for a while...

Unless u can copycat Harry's biz model...

Harry made much money from teaching people how to invest than investing/ trading in Bursa
02/07/2018 19:29

Haha if you've been around that long, you must have some alpha (im assuming your have a good track record here).

I'm not that good at day trading unfortunately. I only trade when i am very certain the EV is really really in my favor.

Before Brexit, i bought put options on the GPB versus the USD as i was pretty sure the odds are more like 50/50, instead of 95/5 which most people seem to think it is.

Before the US elections, i bought put options on the Peso against the RMB, as i was pretty sure that trump had at least 50% chance of winning while the markets was pricing as if he was destined to lose.

And in the latest elections, i bet 2:1 odds that PH would win. Lets say bet of RM1, PH win, i get RM2, PH Lose, i pay RM1.

So far 3/3. Haha really lucky.

I'm considering taking up football or sports bets where the odds are 6 to 1 or higher, as people tend to really badly miscalculate odds at that level. Its very hard to say with confidence someone is going to win only 16% of the time.



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FamousAmos you still dont get it. you dont predict. noone can predict. you follow the trend , make concentrated bet and watch your bet closely.

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

anyway good luck to you. its always great to see youngsters engage in Bursa instead of some money games.
02/07/2018 15:00

3iii It is always amusing to see people in Rolls Royce getting investment advice from those who ride the subway trains.
01/07/2018 15:02
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I drive proton wor.

Posted by newbie911 > Jul 1, 2018 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

Mind to know min to join?
And how big is your fund.
Thanks.
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Find me on fb, we can talk there.

The fund is small. I want to know if i have alpha first and build a track record before properly raising money. So it will likely remain small for the next 3-4 years.

Posted by Flintstones > Jul 1, 2018 08:11 PM | Report Abuse

Is Jon really investing other peoples money? I thought all his letters to investors were written to imaginary people.
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I invest for a Nigerian prince, Saudi general and handsome man who email me.

The Nigerian prince email me say he got money problem, as me bank in. I really go bank in, and he really is real Nigerian prince with money!

Very lucky man.

Tell me one person who is successfully predicted major macro events consistently.

Its largely irrelevant to me. Though i do have some perspective on it, but i don't let it influence my portfolio that much.

Example, i figured PH the probabilities of PH winning, will be higher than priced into markets, and so my cash holdings went from 0% to 15%, i started collecting cash and getting new investors 3 months before. I figured prices should drop.

Day after election, market didn't drop, for a week it was stable. And then it started dropping, and it wasnt really due to elections, but due to pull back of liquidity around the world for emerging markets.

Right for the wrong reason and the wrong timing.

Seth Klarman, and Howard Marks have been expecting a recession for a long time due to various factors, and they are probably right, their logic and research is very hard to refute, but the timing is the devil in the details, and therefore, they don't really try and predict when it will happen, just a rough idea of where in the economic and credit cycle they're at and invest accordingly.

Being right too early is often indistinguishable from being wrong.


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Posted by FamousAmos > Jul 2, 2018 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

do you know where is the 10 years MGB-Tbills spread trading at ? what is the level of dollar index? hows the MSCI emerging market index? oil price? Dow ? Hang Seng ?

By studying the macros you will enhance your portfolio return.

"Rising tide lifts all boats."

Posted by CharlesT > Jul 2, 2018 10:53 AM | Report Abuse

If u stay in mkt longer, say for another 4 to 5 years, then u read again what u posted now, maybe u will have a very different thinking then

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You are probably right, it would be weird for me not to change any aspect of my thinking or perspective over five years.

On OTB, i was not specifically referring to him, like i always said, he's a very good trader. But i'm not sure how sustainable is his current alpha, as the philosophy does not hold water with me. Its not just the results but the process as well.

Bull traders usually beat the broad index over the bull years and in down years really get whack, then they beat index again etc.

Tbf, Otb did beat the market in 2015. In 2018, his returns were supposed to be abysmally bad, but he cut loss in time, which is in line with is ta philosophy of cutting loss when SMA down 200.

My only criticism of his philosophy, is that TA to me, appears to be the tool used by people who don't know the real value of what they buy, or view stocks as just numbers on a screen, with more concern of what others and the market is thinking, instead of having independent thought.

During the years when warren buffet bough Washington Post and American Express. His portfolio went down by more than 50%. And yet, he was never happier, just buying more and more every day.

That to me is the sign of real ability.

1) To be able to identify the intrinsic value of companies.
2) To buy more or hold as prices fall,
3) To be right.

I'm not sure he hits those 3.

He says to buy masteel (i dont subscribe, i have no idea), but then he sells. He calls HY and Gamuda-we Ms Universe stocks that you must never sell no matter what happens, and he sells. Quite inconsistent.

Thought tbf, Soros was also very inconsistent in terms of what he say, he changes his mind often and his trades can turn in just minutes, and yet his record over the 40 years is exemplary. Some genius can be hard to be explained.

Maybe OTB is a genius and i just don't understand him, but based on the balance of probabilities, its a hard conclusion to make.

Maybe you are right, im just too young :)

All fund managers are limited by a few things.

1) Their ability.
2) The need to at minimum match the performance of the index or their fellow managers.
3) To handle the expectations of their investors when it comes to redemptions. In 2009 many fund managers were holding net cash positions as their investors were pulling out money in the peak of the crisis.

Im only limited by the first. On the second and third, I sieve through my investors very very carefully and tightly. This ensures that I have a investors that are 100% with me.

I would rather not manage your money at all if you don't trust me or understand my process.

For those whom I think don't really understand the process but they really trust me and my ability, I ask them to invest using the guaranteed method.

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lizi fundamentalist is just one piece of the puzzle...why 80% cannot perform? same to so called fund manager, the professional one, also cannot perform.
01/07/2018 14:06

Qqq3, you must have a very low opinion of people.

Just because someone quotes buffet, does not necessarily mean people will respect them, look at icap boss, he quotes the most, but his name now is dirt.

I don't strive to be respected. I strive to intellectually honest with others and myself. And one often finds that respect comes with the package.

Im superclear about my fund, its philosophy and the kind of investor I am. My investors can then self select if they want their money invested by me.

In any event, guaranteed amounts are only 22% of the fund, which is about 30% of my equity in the fund. So it's not like I'm over leveraging.

Thy also have a 3 year lock up. And my name when it comes to money is gold. I always pay my debts.

Usually 3 months or so before end of lock up period, I'll ask them if they plan to withdraw. And adjust accordingly.

If they want to, my personal savings can usually cover any redemption instantly.

Correct.

It's easier to talk about investing than actually getting good results investing.

In addition, many people can show good 5 year results due to luck.

I'll find out if I have alpha in another 18 years :)

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Patron i realize many of these fundamentalists like to write long essays quote this quote that but their results ain't that impressive. IMO
01/07/2018 13:51

“For most of [the professional investors and speculators] are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it ‘for keeps,’ but
with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence.”

- John Maynard Keynes (1935)

The malaysian markets are not that different from american ones, or other mature markets.

Humans are the same everywhere, throughout history.

If most people are spending their time predicting quarters, maybe the real edge comes from doing something else other than predicting quarters.

Some of my investors come from here as well. After reading my writings.

I generally redact what i consider to be extremely key information, out from the letter, for example, my entire research on RCE, all the good and the bad.

Most of the companies or insight in there is common knowledge, the question is whether one would even buy it given that most here is prone to short-term-ism and require earnings visibility, seeming to forget that when earnings visibility exist, one pays more.

OSK, DAIMAN, PLENITUDE, INSAS etc are very easy to understand and buy, but most won't.

My favorite kind of investor is one who has read most of my writings, thus saving me the time of explaining myself and my philosophy over several hours to ensure the person really knows what he or she is getting into.

In any event, even in extremely mature markets like the US, people are still prone to emotions, euphoria and depression. To dive into short-termism.

Everyone knows PBBANK is a good investment since 1990, but how many have held since 1990, or even since 2010 etc etc. Instead of selling it for some hot stock that just seems to keep going up?

I'll always have things to eat.

I considered some lion, but not masteel. Too long to write, but feel free to read my article "The Art of Gambling in Speculative Stocks", i wrote something on Masteel there.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/145619.jsp

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Jhau65 Why not buy lion and masteel, si fu otb top pick?
30/06/2018 20:58







Given the nature of my fund, i'm quite happy that fundamental stocks are being sold down and ignored. I also happen to a stable income, low living expenses, zero debt, and no commitments. I can buy as long as they sell them cheap!
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Albukhary Choivo, thanks for the detail update. I think your stock pick are not bad, is just now the market is bad, many good fundamental stock are being ignore by market.
30/06/2018 21:03






qqq3, They chose me as their manager and they know what they are signing up for, if you do not understand my investing method, or trust me or the method makes no sense to you. They are free and highly encouraged to take their money out.

lizi, i wrote something on diversification versus concentration below. Feel free to take a read.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/163383.jsp


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qqq3 2 stocks making 50% of portfolio.....what would your outsiders say to that?
30/06/2018 21:17

lizi 2 stock make up of 50%, the others spread into 23 stocks..very imbalance, it make the portfolio look lack of direction...just my 2 cent.
30/06/2018 22:12






Gee, wish i thought of that, i mean i even have a whatsapp group with them, i could actually even just put it there! Haha

I'm not sure if you're being passive aggressive or your tone is just coming off wrong over the internet.

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Outliar Why are you posting this here? Shouldnt you be sending this to your fund's investors by email instead?
01/07/2018 00:06

Mining companies are famous for losing money due to high capex and low returns. How is this a surprise? Did you even study properly.

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692718720
1013 posts
Posted by 692718720 > Jun 30, 2018 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

Making lose money in mining business.... how they manage company?! I really don’t know lo...

Why depressing, discount everyday. I very happy this year.

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Posted by probability > Jun 29, 2018 06:41 PM | Report Abuse

really depressing market last 4 months.....hopefully all the above participant show positive returns by end of the year...

may god bless us.

Unlevered, Banks ROA is low, PBBANK the highest in Msia is 1.85%. But they leverage up 10 times.

RCE's is about 6.5, levered 2.5 times or so. Can't rmbr, only checked the key bits.

What's your thesis for that?

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apolloang 9 or 10 u sendiri beli,me will avoid this stock cos overvalued
28/06/2018 18:52

No idea, its cheap enough to buy and i like its lands and project in Selangor, i think the latent demand form people who wanted to move overseas, or people overseas coming back is there, and they will buy the Tropicana areas.

The Malaysia Baru factor is there, will take some time to kick in i think.

950 meter (from Tropicana 218 to Penang Times Square) you say far, really nothing to say.

I walk to work also further.

The location is not the problem, question is the reputation and if people trust that reputation.


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Posted by apolloang > Jun 28, 2018 09:26 PM | Report Abuse

Tropicana 218 suites 1000psf in Macalister road so far from town, penang times square only 600++ psf more near town,which one u want?

I think its worth about 9 today, but 10 by the mid of next year. Given its highly resilient growth, moat and strong demand.

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apolloang EPF cornered this stock,otherwise worth around 5
28/06/2018 10:14

Its easy to say that with derision. But if that were true, they would have given negative dividends by now, that is clearly not the case.

In addition, do note that EPF also lets other run parts of its funds. So its not necessarily purchased by EPF per say.

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PiddleMinger Epf are the masters of buying high, sell low.
But they've the means to buy back even lower. Wouldn't be too concerned what epf is doing. TM looks like a bargain compared to Time.
28/06/2018 11:05

Rather buy plenitude, daiman, trop, mahsing, osk, orient etc.

Just because the stock price drop, does not mean the company will die.

If the price drop to 0.01 sen tmr for some reason, TM will still be around 5 years from now.

If you are really so stupid to even consider that possibility just because the price went down, you should leave the market and put money in FD.

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Posted by Hoi App > Jun 27, 2018 09:25 PM | Report Abuse

tm possible to be closed down? then alots staff will suffer losing their job?

If you dont want to do that, and you feel not reasonable. Don't sell lah!

Treat it like shares in a Sdn Bhd company, dividend all will still pay you.

PJD was taken over at 29% discount to RNAV, not unreasonable. In addition, it was taken over by osk.

If you think OSK was getting the better end of the stick then, why not buy up the shares of OSK as well during the acqusition? Nobody stopping you.


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Posted by jkhoo99 > Jun 27, 2018 05:09 PM | Report Abuse

This stock is cheap and seemingly attractive is because OLH could take it private anytime by offering you 70c per share like what he has done for PJD and OSK property. Would you still hang on to it if he take it private where your holding is not tradable? The institutional investors knew that and they stay away.

Interesting.

Haha, its now below my cost. Interesting. Definitely thinking of getting more.

No need 50%.

You guarantee me 25% in 3 months, i sailang for you, anything above you keep. We meet in lawyer office, use your house as collateral, ok boh?
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Posted by GoodBoy > Jun 26, 2018 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

Invest in HSSEB for at least 50% to 100% returns ...

The reason why HyppTv is bundled in, is because its not worth it to begin with, and its where TM really makes the margin.

Given a choice, nobody would want hypp tv.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142735.jsp

I did, a long time ago. Unlike you, i do my research properly.

If i sell wagyu beef for RM20, sure alot will want also lah. Problem is, can TM afford to? Their margin only 7.7%.

If you can afford to stay in a condo that have TIMECOM, am i going to stinge on the internet, when i can have 5 times the speed at just double the price?

How about you try using 100mb per sec for a week, and then try to go back to TM. :)

In addition, its not a matter of if you want to buy TIME, its if TIME wants to sell to you. They go where the demand for their product is the highest, ie condo's.

You need to request for your area to have TIME, and if the request is high enough, only they will connect. That's how high the demand is.

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PiddleMinger yes, captain obvious. Time's package is definitely the cheapest when you compare price per mbps. But dont u think many would subscribe to TM if they offer a low price package eg RM 75 for 20mbps?

The average user would use the internet for surfing, fb and maybe some youtube. Not for HD streaming, gaming, etc. And you've not considered the competition from other telcos. Time is not cheap currently. I'll be keeping this in my watchlist.
26/06/2018 18:16

You think the average internet user is some makcik who dont know how to youtube?

Even my parents now start to netflix and youtube. 1080p movies need 8mb to 12 mb per second. 4k needs 45-80mb per second.

And if its a family, even more. Not even count torrent.

This is one of those scenarios where the demand will grow to fill the supply. Imagine those people who keep terabytes of data in the cloud.

Yeah, would suck if the price of the stock drops. Its 26% of my portfolio. But that would also present an invaluable chance to buy more.

Im waiting for RM6.

When MCMC wanted to implement Mandatory Standard on Access Pricing (MSAP), it was TM who complained, not timecom.

Double the speed? Timecom is 10 times the speed of TM at the same price.

Using Pakatan Manifesto, double the speed at half the price. Assume TM force to ikut bulat bulat, that is 20MB at RM75 (Cheapest TM plan now 10MB, RM149). That means, 100MB at RM375!

Timecom is 60% cheaper already, compared to TM. Even when compare to TM most expensive plan, 100MB, RM329. Timecom is still 55% cheaper.

The sheer cheapness of Timecom's service means, they wont be affected. That's margin of safety for you.

Best product for the lowest price.




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Posted by PiddleMinger > Jun 26, 2018 03:25 PM | Report Abuse

the average internet user won't need 100mbps, let alone 200mbps. what they want is cheaper packages.

Time's earnings would be affected by the new ruling and the PE would surge even higher.

You have clearly never used a 100mb+ line before.

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PiddleMinger the average internet user won't need 100mbps, let alone 200mbps. what they want is cheaper packages.

Time's earnings would be affected by the new ruling and the PE would surge even higher.
26/06/2018 15:25

That is some very weak reasoning.

Thats interesting news. Thanks.

New low cost package.

Sell 50mb speed for RM120, compared to 100mb for 149. Seems ok.

Its a potential 2-5% position for me. The only reason its not larger, is because it is not a good business. Moat is low.

Prices in china now is artificially high, because the china govt have been cutting production and have factories shut down like made the last 2-3 years to handle overcapacity.

Factory shut down, can be reopened when the steel rebar price go back up, which will cause price to go down again.

But the sheer cheapness of the stock kind of covers it. Things always look cheap when you from valuing it at P/B to P/E.

Im just wondering where all the rebar demand going to come from. All steel manufacturer in malaysia going to expand the demand, where the additional supply going to come?

Lionind profits is also very very volatile,

2006: Loss 146m
2007: Profit 271m
2008: Profit 893m
2009: Loss 374m
2010: Profit 515m
2011: Profit 283m
2012: Loss 12m
2013: Loss 30m
etc etc, lazy to type.

So might be worth considering a few extra factors.

Its a cyclical bet.

Lionind is interesting. I wanted to buy at 0.75, but decided to get osk and trop instead. At least i bought some parkson at 0.4.

But its really very very interesting. But i have no money, and i dont like paying higher price haha. Good luck.

OTB is honest guy. He tells the truth or at least what he thinks is the truth. Sometimes info may not be complete, but its not out of maliciousness, just not yet considered, or did not strike him to consider. Which is human. We are not god.

Icon8888, my only question is, what is your cutloss and how you decixe as a trader.

Are you still holding muda? Did you top up? Whats your thought process then and what is it now?

Im currently in kl, do look for me on facebook if youre around and want to meet up for a coffee.

Whey Whey,

If you know someone selling the hermes bag taken from rosmah house at Rm500 each with full packaging, will you buy as much as you can for as long as you can, assuming you know for a fact it is real.

Or will you go shout to the world ask them to come buy also, because unless someone bid up the price of each bag to RM200k each, you wont know how much is the bag you bought is worth.

That's either the action of a fool or someone who does not know the value of what he buys.

I dont particularly mind if the price go down, even if its by alot, because i always want to buy more, i'm only limited by my fund size and my conservatism in making sure it does not exceed 30%.

So yes, if wanting to buy as much of RM1 for 50 sen for as long as possible means im an asshole. Im a top tier, first class axxhole. In fact, i doubt there's a bigger one that me in the bursa.





Takeprofit,

If you're confused by some random trolly post by me on the forum, it means you don't understand the business and your precious investment well enough. Please print out the reports and the market research and go study more yourself, go sleep with the report and read it until its in tatters.

Icon8888, do you have a cut loss? How do you determine your cut loss?

Fair points, im thinking more deeply about it before i reply.

JoeNas, please search for me on facebook.

I'd like to talk in greater detail with you on some questions i have. I'll be willing to share with your my full research on this company, in exchange for answering some queries i have.

I bought at 1.65 back then. Most bad luck one!

No, will limit down soon. 17,000 govt employees getting fired. And MFRS 9 will be implemented next quarter, which means 7.2 million loss will hit next quarter.

Chart is clearly showing that as it is now consolidating as people start to process this information.


It should start dropping and falling knife soon.

Both FA and TA is bad.

Be careful, best if you dont buy at all. Go ask OTB what to buy, HUAAN HUAT HUAT HUI HUI!

Haha, talk lah.

I lazy to look here d. Price go up everyday. I also sien.

I also no more money to top up d. At least for 1-2 months. So no point looking also.