Ion Shirt, why they need to sapu as much Jaks shares as possible in the last 3 weeks?

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IronShirt Ang so rich--meh --got 50mil to buy RI....It is a syndicate loan. They already goreng last 3 weeks to sapu as much Jaks share as possible.

Dear Sslee

Per earlier postings, the schedule for for starting of synchronization was 14 May 2020. If that can be achieved in June, then COD by end Sept or early Oct. Jaks will likely be paid for electricity generated during trial run + synchronization in June 2020. Yes,there are some delays due to Covid 19.

The timing of RI which is in Q4 is interesting where the Unit 1 already COD...

RI usually will more than 5 months to obtain all relevant approvals by bursa, egm, trading of right, admission. By the time, unit one already COD.

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JJchan RI fast track also take 2 weeks---Normal 3--4 week for approval. Brochure printing, and shareholders checking & others-----2--3month----Please Note RI was informed quite sometimes
ago----most are just newbie here(just informed yesterday)

Now short selling is banned. Very unlikely it will limit down. It may drop wed open and may rebound fairly quickly. Short term share price is very hard to predict, when most people say it will drop, it may well be the other way. That is why most people lost money in share investments, trying to predict share movements which they hardly get them right.

A lot of people waiting to buy cheap...


---------------------------------------

microhard So, limit down to 40c , so how is our hard-earn money.........sleepless night ...

Those already bought Jaks because of power plant better subscribe the right n get free warrant. Not all RI are bad. Look at Dayang and Perdana RI, all investors who subscribed for RI made good monies. By the time Jaks mgt get all approval by forth quarter of 2020, unit one already COD, price may increase than drop. When this unexpected RI announced, jaks shares will experience short term volatility. Just don't panic sell to sharks...

Thank you enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

Dear Philip,

Can you kindly post your article of Pchem which you wrote last year, if i can remember correctly. I saw it about a month ago and i bought some pchemical. I cannot find the article as i am still trying to learn more from good i3 smart investors. Usually i buy shares that i can sleep peacefully and i am grad that i managed to buy pchemcal from RM 5.20 till RM 5.5.

Medical specialty gloves are specialised gloves required highest standard. What you get in the market is normal gloves produced by many low costs manufacturer.

Here is what happen to medical gloves which has to be sent by air due to urgent needs by US and Euro, which was out of stock due to Covid 19

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysian-state-cargo-carrier-profits-soaring-demand-medical-gloves



-------------------------------------------------------------
calvintaneng COMFORT IS SELLING PURE EXAM & MEDICAL GLOVES FOR FIGHT AGAINST COVID 19

RUBBEREX SELLS TO ALL INCLUDING RUBBER GLOVES FOR CONTRUCTION COMPANIES

DEMAND FOR MEDICAL GLOVE UP DUE TO COVID 19

DEMAND FOR GENERAL GLOVES DROP DUE TO RECESSION

COMFORT UP IS JUST LOGICAL
19/05/2020 4:38 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-melinda-gates-says-we-may-get-vaccine-by-end-of-year-if-were-lucky.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Stock up and down based on market forces, not uncle alone. Just like Dayang, he got margin call during market turbulent in March 2020. Market leader is Top glove. Top glove up, everybody follow. Small one up bigger in term of %. That is what i observed in past few weeks. And Comfort and Supermax seems to be correlated. Companies with good profit growth prospect will shine...

Pls include me. Your good work is highly appreciated. Thanks

Thanks Kim33. I notice that Comfort and Supermax shares price are mostly correlated last week.

About a month ago, Uncle KYY said he bought Comfort and Rubberex. Now become Comfort and Supermax. I did not follow uncle blog for quite some time. He sold Rubberex and switch to Supermax or what?

Kossan boss said the demand for gloves likely grow 50%.


CIMB Report said ASP increase by 5% to 30%(depending on type of gloves) this quarter, another 10% to 15% next quarter. And order lead time 10-12 months. Profit will grow very significantly next few quarters till 2021. If glove companies cannot meet demand, price will go up again after increase by about 45% in next quarter vs year 2019.

Recently Riverstone (SGX-listed Malaysia's No.5 gloves producer) quarterly result showed 50% jump in profit.

Kossan boss said demand for gloves likely grow 50%.


Nanyang Sat, May 16, 2020

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/677697


Latest Analyst Report from CIMB for Supermax. Comfort also expects to achieve higher than expected results in next few quarters. Let Probability buy Dayang.



Supermax Corp

Inputting higher ASP increases

■ We turn more bullish on SUCB’s earnings prospects as we expect its more
aggressive ASP increases ahead to lead to stronger margin expansion.
■ Given an order lead time of 10 months, SUCB is confident of pushing higher
ASPs given the current favourable supply-demand dynamics in glove sector.
■ Reiterate Add, with higher TP of RM5.10 (26.5x CY21F P/E).

Expecting more aggressive ASP hikes by SUCB

We gather that Supermax (SUCB) is taking a more aggressive stance in raising its
average selling prices (ASPs) from Jun-2020 onwards (rise of 10-15% monthly). Note
that this is post raising its ASPs by at least 25-30% mom in Apr-2020 (vs. 5-10% by its
peers during the same period) on the back of the favourable supply-demand dynamics in
the glove sector (due to impact of Covid-19). We gather that SUCB’s current order lead
time has further extended to 10-12 months (vs. our assumption of eight months
previously) which gives SUCB a longer orderbook visibility of up to May-Jun 2021F.

Manufacturing cum distribution business shines in this situation

As 50% of its gloves are sold under original brand manufacturing (OBM), via its own
distribution centres in seven countries (including UK, the US and Europe), we believe
SUCB can record higher ASP increases than its peers. This is given that OBM gloves are
sold to end-customers directly (bypassing third-party distributors) at distributor prices vs.
factory prices. Note that the bulk of SUCB’s peers merely function as OEM suppliers.

Allocating certain capacity for ad-hoc orders, for better margins

We gather that SUCB has been receiving more ad-hoc orders (15-20% of total glove
sales) from non-government and government organisations. These orders typically have
higher selling prices (premium of >30%) vs. recurring orders, resulting in higher margins
for SUCB. In our view, SUCB is able to cater to these additional orders as it has earlier
allocated some capacity for this purpose (running at 85-90% utilisation rate vs. peers' 95-
100%) by not fully locking-in its capacity for existing customers.

Raising our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%

We raise our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%, on the back of: 1) sharper surge in glove
sales, 2) stronger-than-expected rise in ASPs, and 3) better profit margins from higher
economies of scale and lower raw material prices (we estimate that nitrile butadiene and
natural latex prices have declined 14% and 7% YTD, respectively). We have summarised
key changes to our assumptions in Fig 2 and 3 (Page 2).

Maintain Add, with a higher TP of RM5.10

Following our EPS hike, our TP rises to RM5.10, still based on 24.5x CY21F P/E (30%
discount to weighted average CY21F P/E of Malaysia glove sector ex. SUCB). Our Add
call is retained. In our view, SUCB continues to be a laggard play in the glove sector, as it
is trading at a 47.8% discount to the Malaysian glove sector average CY21F P/E of 35.7x
while it has the highest 3-year EPS CAGR of 19.6x (vs. sector average of 14.2%).

Quote from CIMB analyst report on May 15, 2020 :

We gather that SUCB’s (Supermax) current order lead time has further extended to 10-12 months (vs. our assumption of eight months previously) which gives SUCB a longer orderbook visibility of up to May-Jun 2021F.

Wow... order lead time 10-12 months. This is same as Topgloves analyst conferring call as reported in Nanyang. Glove companies will have good quarterly results for next 12 months, perhaps the highest in the history. This is same as Topgloves analyst conferring call as reported in Nanyang.

Latest Analyst Report from CIMB for Supermax.



Supermax Corp

Inputting higher ASP increases

■ We turn more bullish on SUCB’s earnings prospects as we expect its more
aggressive ASP increases ahead to lead to stronger margin expansion.
■ Given an order lead time of 10 months, SUCB is confident of pushing higher
ASPs given the current favourable supply-demand dynamics in glove sector.
■ Reiterate Add, with higher TP of RM5.10 (26.5x CY21F P/E).

Expecting more aggressive ASP hikes by SUCB

We gather that Supermax (SUCB) is taking a more aggressive stance in raising its
average selling prices (ASPs) from Jun-2020 onwards (rise of 10-15% monthly). Note
that this is post raising its ASPs by at least 25-30% mom in Apr-2020 (vs. 5-10% by its
peers during the same period) on the back of the favourable supply-demand dynamics in
the glove sector (due to impact of Covid-19). We gather that SUCB’s current order lead
time has further extended to 10-12 months (vs. our assumption of eight months
previously) which gives SUCB a longer orderbook visibility of up to May-Jun 2021F.

Manufacturing cum distribution business shines in this situation

As 50% of its gloves are sold under original brand manufacturing (OBM), via its own
distribution centres in seven countries (including UK, the US and Europe), we believe
SUCB can record higher ASP increases than its peers. This is given that OBM gloves are
sold to end-customers directly (bypassing third-party distributors) at distributor prices vs.
factory prices. Note that the bulk of SUCB’s peers merely function as OEM suppliers.

Allocating certain capacity for ad-hoc orders, for better margins

We gather that SUCB has been receiving more ad-hoc orders (15-20% of total glove
sales) from non-government and government organisations. These orders typically have
higher selling prices (premium of >30%) vs. recurring orders, resulting in higher margins
for SUCB. In our view, SUCB is able to cater to these additional orders as it has earlier
allocated some capacity for this purpose (running at 85-90% utilisation rate vs. peers' 95-
100%) by not fully locking-in its capacity for existing customers.

Raising our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%

We raise our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%, on the back of: 1) sharper surge in glove
sales, 2) stronger-than-expected rise in ASPs, and 3) better profit margins from higher
economies of scale and lower raw material prices (we estimate that nitrile butadiene and
natural latex prices have declined 14% and 7% YTD, respectively). We have summarised
key changes to our assumptions in Fig 2 and 3 (Page 2).

Maintain Add, with a higher TP of RM5.10

Following our EPS hike, our TP rises to RM5.10, still based on 24.5x CY21F P/E (30%
discount to weighted average CY21F P/E of Malaysia glove sector ex. SUCB). Our Add
call is retained. In our view, SUCB continues to be a laggard play in the glove sector, as it
is trading at a 47.8% discount to the Malaysian glove sector average CY21F P/E of 35.7x
while it has the highest 3-year EPS CAGR of 19.6x (vs. sector average of 14.2%).

Latest Analyst Report from CIMB for Supermax. Comfort also expects to achieve higher than expected results in next few quarters. Let Probability buy Dayang.



Supermax Corp

Inputting higher ASP increases

■ We turn more bullish on SUCB’s earnings prospects as we expect its more
aggressive ASP increases ahead to lead to stronger margin expansion.
■ Given an order lead time of 10 months, SUCB is confident of pushing higher
ASPs given the current favourable supply-demand dynamics in glove sector.
■ Reiterate Add, with higher TP of RM5.10 (26.5x CY21F P/E).

Expecting more aggressive ASP hikes by SUCB

We gather that Supermax (SUCB) is taking a more aggressive stance in raising its
average selling prices (ASPs) from Jun-2020 onwards (rise of 10-15% monthly). Note
that this is post raising its ASPs by at least 25-30% mom in Apr-2020 (vs. 5-10% by its
peers during the same period) on the back of the favourable supply-demand dynamics in
the glove sector (due to impact of Covid-19). We gather that SUCB’s current order lead
time has further extended to 10-12 months (vs. our assumption of eight months
previously) which gives SUCB a longer orderbook visibility of up to May-Jun 2021F.

Manufacturing cum distribution business shines in this situation

As 50% of its gloves are sold under original brand manufacturing (OBM), via its own
distribution centres in seven countries (including UK, the US and Europe), we believe
SUCB can record higher ASP increases than its peers. This is given that OBM gloves are
sold to end-customers directly (bypassing third-party distributors) at distributor prices vs.
factory prices. Note that the bulk of SUCB’s peers merely function as OEM suppliers.

Allocating certain capacity for ad-hoc orders, for better margins

We gather that SUCB has been receiving more ad-hoc orders (15-20% of total glove
sales) from non-government and government organisations. These orders typically have
higher selling prices (premium of >30%) vs. recurring orders, resulting in higher margins
for SUCB. In our view, SUCB is able to cater to these additional orders as it has earlier
allocated some capacity for this purpose (running at 85-90% utilisation rate vs. peers' 95-
100%) by not fully locking-in its capacity for existing customers.

Raising our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%

We raise our FY20-22F EPS by 33.8-59.9%, on the back of: 1) sharper surge in glove
sales, 2) stronger-than-expected rise in ASPs, and 3) better profit margins from higher
economies of scale and lower raw material prices (we estimate that nitrile butadiene and
natural latex prices have declined 14% and 7% YTD, respectively). We have summarised
key changes to our assumptions in Fig 2 and 3 (Page 2).

Maintain Add, with a higher TP of RM5.10

Following our EPS hike, our TP rises to RM5.10, still based on 24.5x CY21F P/E (30%
discount to weighted average CY21F P/E of Malaysia glove sector ex. SUCB). Our Add
call is retained. In our view, SUCB continues to be a laggard play in the glove sector, as it
is trading at a 47.8% discount to the Malaysian glove sector average CY21F P/E of 35.7x
while it has the highest 3-year EPS CAGR of 19.6x (vs. sector average of 14.2%).

Probability, I think is very hard and it will take more time for O&G to come back. Petra Energy just reported huge loss yesterday.

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5133
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

probability anytime Dayang earnings will beat Comfort... even avg selling price of gloves rise by 30%
16/05/2020 1:45 PM

Pls do not attack people. I believe Mr Ooi and DK66 are nice and sincere people.

Agreed. i3 has give us a lot great ideas and sharings in stock investing. I believe Mr Ooi n Mr DK would agree also .

Dear DK66, one day you will tell Philip you are right when Jaks breaking RM 2. Philip defends his QL,Topglove like you do for Jaks. Philip also share investments a lot sincerely like you do. You have our support.

Fully agreed with Livesimply and Hengry8833 . Philip is big boy but his investment style may not suit every one. Just like no one are able to emulate Warren Buffet. I am happy with my return over past years with my own style.

Nonetheless, I am very thankful for his willingness to share his portfolio with us as good reference.

This I3 forum is a fantastic place to share information and we are grateful we have great people like DK66, Icon888, OTB and Phillip who is willing to share. We can evaluate and make our investment decisions.

Every writers also have some sort of motives. Even The Edge Weekly, which i stopped subscribing long ago, their writers also have motives and some are paid(other than salaries from the Edge) to write certain companies. You can hardly make money if you read and follow the Edge writer ups. We also aware that Jaks expenses maybe higher as pointed by Phillip. We are not that stupid, Philip.

Once again, thanks those who are willing to share and less personal attack. Pls do not discourage good writter like DK66, Icon8888 to share. We already lost OTB contribution here(I believe OTB return is better than Phillip). Let's not lost more good writers here. This is a good forum.




-------------------------------------------------------
LiveSimply Agree! Both DK66 and Icon8888 provide us with insights into the investment. It is up to us to apply our critical thinking skills on their insights. It is not their faults if investment turns south because it is our decision to invest. I applaud them for their efforts and kindness to share!

---------------
Henry8833 DK66 wrote many articles just for sharings and let us know better from difference perspective. No anyone or rather most in i3 in the same league as Phillip.

Dear DK66, we stand behind you. You are right. Naysayers cannot sleep and got metal disorder as they missed Jaks when below RM 1. Many thanks for your kind sharings. I end up with few hundred thousand shares Jaks now.


------------------------------------------------------------

DK66 They are not happy because of my latest article which killed their dream of buying at RM0.50. It is not my article that ruin their plans, it is the facts ! Vinh Tan 1 made so much money you believe this will go unnoticed ?? Many with knowledge of Vinh Tan's results were already buying secretly. I merely unfolded the information for the benefit of the greater public.

If Mr Ang manages Jaks well, it will be another YTL Power in time and YTL family is the top 20 riches in Msia. YTL rises due mainly to one power plant as well.

Thank you DK66.

Hopefully Jaks boss will not do anything funny eg on the 51% and 49% joint venture property project, related party transactions etc

Jaks boss Mr Ang image has not been good to fund managers esp after its Star called on corporate guarantee RM 50 milion saga due to poor execution problem. That is why we can buy jaks at low price - risks and rewards.

With this kind of profit by its power plant, Jaks price will be not RM 1 anymore. If Mr Ang manages the company properly from now on, with good corporate governance and no more negative surprises, Mr Ang can be one of top 50 riches Malaysian in next 5 years. We hold minority shareholders will also earn good money

Thank you DK66 and Icon8888 for kind sharing.

Thank you Icon8888. Another validation of earnings potential of power plant.

Dear DK66, Many thanks. Perhaps the latest info we have is per OTB info posted earlier

----------------------------------------------

Item 2.
I was told COD should be around June/July time frame. Hope there is no further delay.
Jaks had a team of engineers in Vietnam to help in this power plant. These engineers are experienced in power plant. No further information is given to me.
I was told this power plant is very modern and has better facilities than Vinh Tan 1 power plant.
I believe the power plant is real because I had seen it myself 2 years ago.

Look at Lctitan, its share price increase 10% because of its future earnings even its report a loss in current quarter yesterday, ie its raw material costs in coming quarters are expected to drop significantly due to drop in oil price. The same may apply to Jaks once its power plant is operational.

Dear DK66, any update on the COD? The most important catalyst to move a stock price is the growth in future earnings... for Jaks is its power plant. Its local business may not be material anymore once its power plant is operational and generating income.

Based on OTB's article to his subscribers where someone posted here earlier(which is not supposed to), it is not a sell call but revising estimates and OTB merely expressed his concerns on Covid 19 on Jaks earnings for FY 2020 and earnings for FY 2021 is intact. This is normal as every company is affected and share price is based on future earnings, in Jaks case, is its power plant.

Let's move on and stop the blaming

US market recovers very very fast. Look like stock hit bottom on 19 March 2020 and many stocks recovered from Mar 19 by more than 40% to 50%. Jaks is lagging behind and will play catch up.

Thank you DK66

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DK66 ... BlessedInvestor, from the news above, I believe there were some delay. The COD maybe delayed to Q3 2020
18/03/2020 12:48 PM

Dear DK, per some msgs earlier, the Unit 1 of the power plant is scheduled to have trial run and connect to national grid in March 2020 and they can sell power and earn $$$ during trial run like that of MFCB power plant. With this virus, some delay is expected. Any update of this?

DK, PJSeow are investor. Hng33 is trader, like playing money game every day. OTB is hybrid of trader and investor. Haha, just for joke only as we need to relax and clam in this turbulent market. If DK projection is correct, it will go back to RM 1.50 soon and then RM 3. Time is our friend as COD is getting nearer and nearer.

Yes relax. I have withdrawn my FDs to buy big today at 70 sen. I don't believe in TA during crisis.
I believe this Golden Rule during crisis : Be greedy when others are fearful.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/futures-stock-market-coronavirus-concerns.html

S&P futures hit limit up

Agreed. This not only applied to Jaks but world market except China which is under govt control. As no solid reasons for mkt continue to slide esp China mkt not following(as i think big players and hedge funds have made enough for short selling), market has to recover...

Now March 2020 with COD just round the corner, anyone have any update on the plant COD? Price still trading below 90 sen today.

EPS about 29 sen. Compared with last year correspondance quarter, profit still increase 73%. Cheap at RM 1.62. Luckily i sold at RM 2.60-2.8. Today started to buy back and will continue to buy tomo and keep for some time.

RM 1.62 is a good bargain price, downside limited. Start accumulating again.

Good suggestions by DK66 and PJSeow. Maybe OTB can help to inform the management on comments by DK66 and PJseow above as he knews Mr Ang... They can also include the progress report on power plant in the coming quarterly reports to be released by end Feb 2020.

I have been accumulating Jtiasa, Rsawit since Nov 2019 and start accumulating Kwantas in Dec 2019 as earning recovery stocks and hope to win big in year 2020.

It is time for Kwantas to see recovery and turnaround as palm oil price remains high. Likely they can achieve EPS of 5 sen to 8 sen per quarter in quarter ended 2019 and first quarter of 2020. Share price will soon fly as this is the laggard palm oil stock...

add more. In addition to its Jordon plant, any one has any news of its Indonesia power plant?

buy more aggressively late as adjustment over and price very attractive now. Always buy when price adjust and people too fearful on the stock and cut losses. Have been applying this strategy... "be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy" for past years and made a good return, even last year i made 20% return even though market is so bad last year after election...

Will continue to add if price drop below RM 1.15...

I started to add Jaks into my portfolio today. Thank you for good and professional comments...

UZMA has the most stable quarterly profits than most other O&G. It should deserve better valuation and PE.

Thank you Icon8888 for good write up. Possible to include Indonesia power project? It will make YTL Power even more attractive in mid turn....