Plantation companies have ESG problems where many funds will avoid and palm oil price also peaking with litte growing prospect. It is hard to get a good valuation of PE more than 10%.

Commodity Weekly 16 Aug 2021

China steel export tax expected soon
 Industry sources report that Chinese steel traders are inserting clauses into new sales contracts stating that buyers will be liable for any future changes in the Chinese export duty. The news reveals that steel traders are fearful that the Chinese government will impose a tax on steel exports. Given China’s ambitious targets for containing peak carbon emissions by 2030, the imposition of export taxes would make sense in conjunction with other measures to curb steel production. Rebates encouraging exports have already been cut.
 Since China is the world’s largest steel exporter, a tax on Chinese exports would drive up steel prices globally because it would signal that China is significantly reducing its commitment to the global steel industry. Supporting this suspicion, a number of Chinese steel producers have announced intentions to cut production in the second half. In the short term, this would have a major impact on global construction costs.
 Even without an export tax or supply cuts, the recent disruption to Chinese port operations due to the resurgence of covid suggests that Chinese steel could be in short supply in the second half of 2021.

Relative performance of commodities and commodity producers
 Steel and aluminium producers soared in the past week for different reasons. Aluminium producers are in favor because the aluminium market is experiencing alarming tightness. The steel market is expecting a reduction in Chinese supply combined with an excess supply of iron ore. The outlook is favorable for margins. Reduced Chinese exports will be a boon for steel producers in the rest of the world.

BTW, CBP is always double standard. Hall so naive.

Supermax is a Sedex Member. What focus msia report is only one side of the story.

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.
SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.

Hall thought he is very clever. This is just one side of the story from workers.

The 2 counters that benefited the most from increase in steel price are Ann Joo and Hiaptek. Both are cost leaders due to their more advanced steel making technology using modern Blast Furnace.

Ann Joo currently current annual rated capacity is 820,000 MT and three Rolling Mills with a total annual rated capacity of 650,000MT. Some 10 years ago Ann Joo has invested over RM 1 billion to upgrade its first and only modern Blast Furnace in Malaysia, which is also the first and only hybrid combination of Blast Furnace and Electric Arc.

Hiaptek's Eastern Steel currently operates at 700MT capacity and will soon increase to 1,500,000 MT next year.

those who bought around 50 sen are making good money...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/infrastructure-stocks-etfs-to-watch-as-bill-advances-through-congress.html

US infra bill will increase more demand for steel in next few years. i could be fundamental change as once infra stated, it will not stop until the project completed.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/iron-ore-tumbles-chinas-steel-sector-revamp-curbs-demand

Iron ore dropped, steel manufactureres costs will drop.

Look like China really determined to control its polution (which is worsen year by year). Few days : controlling coal usage and steel industry, EV, green power etc.

KYY reputation already masuk longkang the moment he recommended AT. See how much is the price now? How many poor investors lost money in AT...

alamak. Why appoint this audit firm which were reprimanded by SC before? Bond and high net worth investors prefer big 4. How to gain confidence? Small sme never mind lah as mostly private shareholders but this is public interest company....

Steel output increased 11.6% vs last year corresponding period which is low based during to covid.

Average daily steel production worldwide fell 0.5% in June from May while Chinese production declined 2.5%, according to Capital Economics analyst Kieran Clancy.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3718806-china-iron-ore-price-plunges-to-cap-worst-week-in-17-months

China has accelerated efforts to reduce iron ore production in line with its carbon emission reduction goal, telling steel mills to ensure this year's output will not exceed 2020 volumes after H1 production rose 12% from the same period last year.

In Tangshan, China's top steelmaking city, "authorities have vowed to punish violations of production restrictions," according to ANZ commodity strategists.

Average daily steel production worldwide fell 0.5% in June from May while Chinese production declined 2.5%, according to Capital Economics analyst Kieran Clancy.


Guess is another good news for steel and fundamental for steel producers.

Steel is commodity like oil. It is very volatile. Be careful when invest in steel. Unless you understand commodity mkt well, you should not over invest as things can change very quickly.

Cost leader for steel = Hiapteik and Ann Joo. Hiapteik is practically managed by China using China tech. Ann Joo and Hiapteck now mainly exports its product to China

Cost leader for Aluminium = Pmetal.

Old article. It will help in better understand between Hiapteck's Eastern Steel, Ann Joo etc.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cover-story-better-times-ahead-steel-sector

Moving towards blast furnaces

To put things into perspective, there are only two major steel players operating blast furnaces currently — Alliance Steel and Eastern Steel.

Ann Joo is adopting the hybrid blast furnace and BF-EAF (blast furnace-electric arc furnace) technology and Masteel is also scaling up its operations in line with the installation of a new technological package.

In general, a blast furnace is three times more capital-intensive than an electric arc furnace (EAF) but its steelmaking cost composition including raw materials is about 25% lower than the latter’s.

The cost leaders for steel rebar producers in Msia are AnnJoo and Hiaptek's JV with China Steel conglomerate's Eastern Steel. Only these 2 are able to compete internationally in term of cost competitiveness.

Both Eastern and Ann Joo export steel to China and make good profit currently. How long the current steel price can last will depend on how determined are China to control its China's environmental problems and power shortage. Also depend on big infrastructure projects in both US and China. Once infra projects started, it cannot stop and will create demand for steel for next few years. Also solar and wind power also increase the usage of steel.

Haha, Leonfb now is 99sen which i managed to sell some to take profit. My ave price is about 90 sen, thanks to KYY selling which pressed down the price. Like i said, KYY will need to buy back above RM 1 soon...

KYY said sell, i bought. Managed to buy leonfb from 92 sen till 86 sen. Latter can sell to KYY at RM 1. After he bought at RM 1, he will promote again....

Haha, OTB really a seasoned investor.

OTB vs KYY, let see who is right this time. Time will tell.

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I have a few clients to monitor Hiaptek factories in Klang and Terengganu.
How many lorries or containers are there ? Are the factories operating and etc ?
I was told all workers are vaccinated and the factories located in Klang and Terengganu are operating now (approval from Miti).

Office work from home lah, but factory in Ipoh and Terrengganu are allowed to operate at 60% capacity. Those regular customers will know who to call esp those importers. Obviously, KYY is not their client.

KYY shoud call Choo Bee Ipoh number and Hiaptek Terrengganu number to see whether they operate or not...

today big jump in rebar price in china, up 8%

buy and hold for some time. They need to privatize Bjland soon if they want to restructure.

The value of the Group will be unlocked in stages

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/2021/07/15/abdul-jalil-berjaya-corp-plans-hospitality-reit

This is a good move...

I apply contrarian investing strategy and it works most of the time in the last 5 years.

Commodity Weekly From CCB International dated 5 July 2021

Commodity highlights – China
China’s steel hub implements output curbs for the rest of 2021
 The city of Tangshan, China’s top steel-making city, has implemented a 30% cut in production that is expected to last for the rest of the year, according to mysteel.com.
 The curbs will only affect those mills that fail to meet ultra-low emission targets.
 The steel industry contributes more than 15% of China’s total emissions and is therefore central to plans to curb emissions.
 It remains to be seen whether the output curbs in Tangshan will be implemented elsewhere. If they are, the tendency will be to boost finished steel prices and lower iron ore and coke prices.
 Such an outcome will depend, however, on the extent to which other producers offset the decline in Chinese production. The main impact is likely to be a reduction in Chinese steel exports that will benefit steel exporters outside of China, especially Korea.

SC should take action against these unlicensed people, not just put their names in the caution list only

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/serba-dinamik-mds-wealth-shrinks-over-rm1b-paper-after-audit-issues

An expensive lesson to learn for public listed companies. Result of poor handling of audit matters. Management's fault, CFO's fault, audit committees fault( which consist largely independent directors) or auditors' fault?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/serbadk_up_up/2021-06-27-story-h1567060185-Serba_Dinamik_Uncle_Tan_do_you_really_know_what_a_Ponzi_Scheme_is.jsp

Serba threatens legal action against blogger...

Like i said earlier, this wayang kulit will not work. Funds keep dumping their shares after this legal suit. They underestimated the impact of auditors and it should listen to auditors to quicky appoint independant review to address KPMG's concern months ago, if they have done nothing wrong. But they take this lightly.

The more the clever chairman scold the auditors, the more the share price will drop as the root cause of the problem remained unsolved...

After this poor timing legal suit, i think is very hard for SD to get auditors. They need clean audit report for their bankers, bond holders, stakeholders like funds etc. They wrongly think that auditors can be easy available in the mkt, and they can make KPMG scare(where globally KPMG is few times larger than SD) or they can hold auditors' nose? Meanwhile, funds will continue to sell as this gives another uncertainty.

Like i said yesterday, this kind of results does not deserve to have such high PE.

results so so only, quarter on quarter dropped...

Thank you sslee for your kind sharings.

Private placement price to Hong Kee gambler is about 60sen. This may be the fair price for now. But i will not touch until dust settle. NTA of -37 sen is scary. The only way is big big right issue

Old fox KYY was forced out of gloves. Still a lot of i3 famous like Charles and Probability still see glove values. I still keep my free glove shares which are about 10% of my portfolio for dividends and add more Super and Tg this monday when it dropped to this ridiculous valuation, eg Super 3 years PAT = RM 10b almost equal to its mkt cap of RM 10b at RM 4.1.

Super at RM 22 and TG at RM 29 (before bonus issues) were overvalued as such i sold most of it in stages before bonus issue. At this price, hehe.....

Looked at youtube at nanyang news above, mana ada SOP and social distancing at Ikea restaurant. Really worry another wave of infection, let hope not

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/2021-03-05-story-h1542032712-Kelington_Group_Opportunities_Amid_Chip_Shortage.jsp

Benjamin Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Now market is affected by sentiments and panic selling and margin calls. Value investors and smart IBs should be happy to collect at this mega sales.

JPM(big boy) asked for SC protection against small boys(retail investors)..

Will add some to support tomo. I only have 10% glove stocks in my portfolio as hedging currently.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/inspired-gamestop-malaysian-retail-investors-look-prop-medical-glove-shares

Wow, Public holiday also so happenings, even the Edge and Nanyang also carry glove news...

This misai asked people to sell on monday out of fear is very very clever...

Good point ToneeFa. Yesterday Mercator dropped 20%, today recovering 20%. Supermax yesterday dropped 10%, today recovered less than 0.5%. Tomo very likely will recover..

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ToneeFa Actually at this price I cannot see how anyone can lose out investing in Supermax.
Estimate EPS for FY21 = 0.3+0.6+0.6+0.5 = RM 2.0 @RM 6.8 = PE 3.4
At PE <4 I don't think this price can stay at this level for too long.

If Super dropped below RM 7, will be SBB. So easy to drop 30% meh. TG will not drop below RM 7.5 in short term at least lah due to its aggressive SBB

Look like a lot still interested in glove and want to buy cheap. Otherwise they won't spend time here lah.

The practice of fear mongering by some here is bad. No stock will continue to drop every day. After some time, it will recover. For those who want to sell and exit, sell when recover.

Any pullback is an opportunity to add more. They have done provisioning and recovering is in play.