CBIP 1.18. Nice. Small is beautiful.

Hapseng 3.73!!! Wow! I am so happy!

I own CLMT for its high dividend yield, which beats EPF and FD. At 52 sen, the TTM yield is nearly 7%. This REIT is even better owned at lower prices. The lower the price, the more I add, until I hit maximum permissable allocation in my portfolio. I like this so much that I now feel I don't have enough at 52 sen, so, I will queue GTC at 52 sen and queue more to own at 51.5 sen, 51 sen, etc. Thank-you.

No shame to take some profits off the table like today when cost is so low. I am a believer in selling into strength and my 25% portion taken off the table today at RM1.28.

Nice. Option to reinvest the dividend at only RM1.39/share.

The TauRx relationship with Genting is very old story that went back to at least 2015 ... see here - https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/-b-taurx-pharmaceuticals-b-plans-u-s-ipo-/.

The "private value" of USD200-300 has been mentioned for many years. TauRx is a 30 year old "company".

The news about submitting for regulatory approval is old news.

The trouble with Private value is that it's really worth nothing until someone else buys. Until then, all you have is speculations. And speculations that has lasted years and years. The wait can be long. The payoff might not be there. Don't buy GENTING just because it owned 20% of TauRx ... Buy GENTING for other reasons.

OMG! Click Price Target and see how bearish KENANGA is. 8 Sell Calls and reiterating Sell Calls when ANNJOO is 1.03-1.05. These are the prices I bought around 1 to 1.02.

It never pays to follow the Analysts. Sometimes, trading against them is more profitable.

ANNJOO is a cyclical company and the trading strategy for cyclicals is easy if you are a chartist technician - just trade the cycles. Buy during the low of the cycles, and sell into strength as the upward cycles accelerates, rinse and repeat.

1.21 close this evening is nice. I think 60/40 chance, the market psychology for ANNJOO has changed and the stock is no longer bearish, after it held above the 200dMA for the 2nd round and the 2nd time. As tempting as it maybe to sell and take profits from my 2nd round purchase near RM1.01, RM1, RM1.02, the smart play now is ignore and let it climb the wall of worry. The first target should at least be 50% of the Fibonacci Retracement which is around RM1.26, although the 61.8% is more critical at RM1.33. Sometimes, these may act as "magnets". Nothing is guaranteed in trading.

@moneycome123456, my understanding is that ordinary shareholders do not get the 1.25 sen/share dividend. That is only for Redeemable Convertible Preference Shareholders (RCPS).

Good job dompeilee. Now wait patiently for reentry. This stock has cut dividend for Q2/23, due to poor earnings relative to last year, so, I think better than 50/50 odds will get a chance to reenter well in the coming months.

Still climbing the wall of worry. Today stopped at 61.8% Fibonacci projection at 4.85. Next resistance 4.96 or thereabout.

I am expecting full year dividend to be at least 16 Sen. Last 2 years paid 20 and 21 Sen. It sits on a ton of net cash of RM1.40, so, sharing some of that massive cash with say 16-20 sen is sustainable for a long time.

I had paper loss for nearly 2 months but now sitting on paper gain.

I hope you buy when it was cheap. My discipline forces me to buy when it was cheap.

I expect the fundamentals to be so because the technical tells me better than 50-50 odds it would be so. It’s price is not yet ready to go up so soon.

Aubree, the q2 gains are used to pay off loans instead of distributing as dividends. If Hapseng has done the latter, share price will go up.

I3lurker, what are your 5 big stocks?

Injury to those who sell below RM1.5.

Averaging down is a skill. There are times to average down, and there are times not to average down. It is not automatic. If you always do this automatically, one day you will lose big.

If you believe BAT will never fall below RM10 because of 30 years history, then, one day, you will lose big.

Actually, I am now starting to be cautious with BAT because the last price low was 9.26 in Mar 2020, 3.5 years ago. The Bollinger Band (BB) on weekly price chart is narrowing relative to past 10 years. The last time this happens is more than 10 years ago, and a breakout of the BB happens and it is quite substantial. In charts, there is the Principle of Alternation. It means if previously it does one thing, then, when the same condition repeats, there is majority odds that it does the opposite (no guarantees). So, as traders, we must always have a backup plan if something goes wrong. A smart back-up plan that ensures you win increases your probability of winning, even if the worst case happens.

So, imagine if price breaks below RM10 and goes down to RM9.2 and breaks below this. In this scenario, it means something extremely bad has happened to BAT. If it happens, what is your strategy? If your holdings is only around 4% portfolio when it gets to 9.2, it is highly unlikely that BAT will go bust in a straight way (but you need to assess that first at the time), and this is the time where if it gets to 8.x, you average down to say 6% of portfolio and be ready to sell in strength to lower your average price even lower than 8.x.

If you don't understand this, avoid BAT.

Trying to win from the long side in a downtrend is not for the inexperienced nor faint hearted. For 99% investors, better to avoid BAT, as odds are too high, 99% investors will lose.

This strategy works for BAT because if you study its % decline in EPS, it's quite consistent - around 10%-25% decline in EPS. It doesn't work for many other rubbish stocks where the % decline in EPS can be 50% or more - then, the swing down is much harder to predict. Also, BAT is a respectable stock. However, this state of affairs is dynamic, i.e. things one day can change and you need to be in tune with the change. At the moment, BAT is still clearly a respectable stock.

If you use 2%-4% of your portfolio to punt like this, it is hard to lose - I've been making monies following this strategy. However, if you use 20%-40% of your portfolio, odds are very high that you will lose. You need to stay unbiased, unemotional and always be objective.

When picking bottom in BAT, you need to be philosophical about it.
- If BAT fills you at the bottom, odds are good you will be able to capture at least 10-15% gain later.
- If BAT doesn't fill you at the bottom and you missed it, so be it - it means you are never meant to own BAT in the first place anyway.

But whatever you do, never chase BAT because this stock is downtrending, and there is also risk that at the capitulation point, it will crash hard one day. (but capitulation tend to rebound)

So, the only way to win (assuming not shorting), is:
1. Study price charts carefully.
2. Try to pick bottom of its swing.
3. Never chase the price.
4. When you have profits > say 10%-15%-20%-25%-30%, always take some partial profit by selling some into strength, so that when it makes lower price, your dividends give you the gains.
5. Eventually, BAT will do 20, 30, 40% price gains fast and that's when you must sell in strength - target to sell up to at least half in order to lower your average cost even more.
6. One day, BAT fortunes will reverse and you'll be thankful to still own say 1/3rd or 1/2 of what you bought.

BAT is a "good" dividend payor in the sense that it consistently pays 95%-96% of its earnings to shareholders.

However, if its EPS keeps declining, then, 96% of a declining EPS = declining dividends.

@williamh, why do you say BAT is the only best buy stock at this time? What about its consistently declining earnings over the past 8 years?
2015 - 312 sen
2016 - 232 sen: -26% decline
2017 - 169 sen: -27% decline
2018 - 155 sen: -8% decline
2019 - 118 sen: -24% decline
2020 - 83 sen: -30% decline
2021 - 91 sen: +18% growth
2022 - 88 sen: -10% decline
2023TTM - 75 sen: - 15% decline.

If 2023 YE EPS is say 70 sen, then, dividends will get cut again.

The question is can BAT really arrest its consistent decline in EPS? Out of past 8 years, its EPS decline 7 out of 8 times. A betting man will say BAT EPS will decline again in 2023, and maybe even 2024. Maybe next 8 years, BAT earnings may decline 7 out of 8 times again i.e. if this happens, you'll see lower and lower prices the longer you hold on to this stock.

To me, I own BAT but only for speculative reason, and never own more than 4%-5% of my portfolio because there are many better stocks out there than BAT.

I sold too soon, with only ~50% gain. Studying its monthly price chart more carefully, I missed the divergence sign. Price peaked over RM2 in 2012 and since then, has tumbled by a large quantum + over a long period of nearly 10 years till 2022 - yet, the Accum/Dist line only dipped a little. And from Mar 2022-Mar2023, the flat price action combined with Accum/Dist line showed that someone was accumulating. And the last 6 months price increase in quantum and intensity was unprecedented in its past history since 2000 (23 years).

In hindsight, when:
1. Long periods of price fall (over 10 years) + huge quantum + supported by Accum/Dist line
2. Long periods of price stabilization (1 year) + slight rise in Accum/Dist line
= someone was planning for a "change of hands" over a decade.

Long periods of accumulation inevitably leads to massive and sustained price increase as what we've seen the past 6 months where it literally more than doubled!

@Lester, saw your past comments that you own this stock "quite heavily" - would your view on its dividend sustainability change if you only own this stock small (e.g. 4% of your portfolio)?

I have an unbreakable policy to never buy any single stock more than 5% of my stock portfolio. This keeps all my buy "relatively small, relative to my total portfolio" in order to be objective about every one of them. When we invest say 50% in 1 stock, it is hard to sleep because any small variations will cause worry and lack of objectivity.

Lester, why do you say dividend sustainability is in doubt? (I hope you look beyond reported EPS, as reported EPS can be artificially lower than cashflow, due to accounting depreciation. Cash is a cleaner way to look at this company).

Past 4 weeks, market panic accumulation. When I bought when price was low, the dividend yield was around 6%. Now it's 4.6% as price increases. I'm now thinking of slowly selling into strength, as the realized gains will be coming to 5 years dividend collection.

When it was trading at 1.2x, that's near all time low in its 23 years history. Why would you just "Hold" at these prices? Doesn't make sense. Now, when price recovers higher and higher next 2 years, will these "Hold" Analysts then change their tunes to "Buy"? When decent businesses goes on sale, it's time to buy, not "Hold" / "Do nothing", especially near 23 year low and after falling from the peak of over RM5 ....

1.53 .. nice! Contrary to analysts who called Buys when price was 1.8x and kept calling buys until it goes down to 1.3x when their tune changes to hold, I completely disregard these analysts and bought at 1.3x. SPTOTO is a stock where the lower the price goes, the cheaper it is and it's better to buy more at lower prices. If you listened to analysts, you will not make money so easily! At 1.53, my entire SPTOTO position is already profitable.

@pinky, thanks, when I saw the Q1 cashflows 2.5 months ago I thought it looks like it has potential ... my buy price at 0.80 finally filled after a long wait. Still, future is uncertain, I look forward to Q2 report in next couple weeks.

From Price Target perspective, nice to see that with HLIB no longer recommending Buy. This means, no more analyst give Buy recommendation. Finally! Analysts have capitulated!

So, as a contrarian, IMHO, the next 1-3 years is likely to be a good time to accumulate on weakness. If you don't chase and let price comes to you, then, eventually, there will be mini-rallies, and with a low average price, more chance to have paper gains that you can unlock.

For a downtrending stock, always take some profits when you have them (e.g. more than 2 year dividend gains, since odds are price is more likely to downtrend).

The risk with owning a downtrending stock is lower prices and your capital tied up for a long time. Hence, allocate a limit like 5% of portfolio and don't buy anymore once hit 5% so that the rest of your portfolio is not tied up to one downtrending stock. This is super important rule. So, plan your buys right from the start assuming limited bullets.

When BAT was trading near 10, HLIB projected Dividends for BAT:
FYE Dec FY23f FY24f FY25f
DPS (sen) 67.8 71.5 74.4
Dividend yield 6.7% 7.1% 7.4%

Basically, they are projecting DPS to fall in 2023 to 67.8 sen. Do you believe them? What's your own independent view?

BAT has cut dividends in first half 2023 from 42 sen down to 29 sen, due to lower H1/23 earnings of 30.7 sen. To get 67 sen means BAT has to declare 38 sen in H2/23 vs 46 sen in H2/22. I suppose that is also a possible, if you are pessimistic that BAT bottom is not yet in sight and dividends will continue to be cut over next 6 months.

BAT is a responsible dividend payor targetting typically around 96% payout. So, how much dividends you get is directly linked to BAT's future earnings.

My GTC order to buy at 10.02 has expired. So, I am keying in a new GTC order for 10.00 and ready to buy more below 10.

If 1.65 sen quarterly dividend hold, that's 6.6 sen per year. Divide by 80 sen = 8.25% dividend yield! Tempting!

Typo. swing high 0.985 Mar 2022. Nearly 18 months of downtrending, testing the patience of long term traders/investors.

Price has taken a dive since Feb 2023 when swing high was 0.985. Today 0.800. Fortune favors the bold, dare to buy at 0.800?

Looking forward to see its quarterly report in 2+ weeks time ... can't wait.

Looks like it want to touch RM5 resistance ... nice price action today to 4.75 or +0.22! Definite overbought, some pullback is inevitable.

Ex-div today 3.96 cents. Closed 1.10. Nice.

I could be wrong, but after hitting a recent high of 4134 on 24 July, FCPO is trading at 3776 today, lower than 7 July low of 3834. That's normally not the common sign of FCPO wants to make higher highs than 4134 yet. More likely to keep drifting downwards. Still the future is uncertain. I took some profits of TAANN to lower my average buy cost further to 2.8. Can always buy back when price is lower than 3.69 later.

1.17 close. Nice!

If not sure how to tell cycle low and cycle high, just look at the price chart since 2010. It should be obvious when were the cycle lows and cycle highs. The challenge is to know how long these cycles last - sometimes, it looks like 2 years, sometimes shorter, sometimes longer, but market always alternates, meaning if the last cycle from Mar 2020 to May 2022 was the biggest and longest, then, the next one won't be so big i.e. for this cycle, I'm thinking maybe 1-2 years and maybe half the upside than last time (last time range was massive from 4+ to 11+; this time won't be anywhere like this is my guess).

Avoid LCTITAN - it has its own issues with LINE, losses, and more borrowings needed till 2025.
I would prefer buying PCHEM dips as I think over the rest of this year and the next, we may (with say 50% chance) already seen the cycle low and we may now be on its next cycle up. Owning when its on its cycle up (if true) will prove rewarding. I am not selling what I bought at 6.01 because if that was indeed its cycle low then, buy and hold baby!

But if I have to choose between LCTITAN and PCHEM, I would consider PCHEM better. In my view, this company is better positioned to benefit from the next upcycle than LCTITAN, because of LCTITAN getting bogged down in its LINE project and so, won't be so clean to benefit from it.

Unlike my paper loss in LCTITAN, my holdings in PCHEM is already up by +13%. As they say, you should ride your winners and let your losses go ... I won't cut, but I think I may add PCHEM on dips over the next year or 2.

In Q3/23, LCTITAN's feedstock costs have soared 30-35%. Sure, its outputs PP/PE market price has also gone up but only by 5% or so ... LCTITAN's competitors like LCTITAN has seen their inventories rising in the past ... Will be interested to see if they will be able to make real change to their inventories in the coming Q3 report in October.

I think the only reason why I am still holding is because it may be possible that PP prices have already seen their cycle low. Last 2 cycle lows were Jan 2016 and Mar 2020. Was May 2023 the cycle low or more new lows to come? If May 2023 turns out to be cycle low, then, may be good to accumulate LCTITAN ... problem though is that by the time LINE comes on board in 2025, PP prices may have peaked and come down i.e. all these ramped up production will have come to nought if PP prices starts to come down instead of rising.

Hard as it may, maybe the best thing for LCTITAN is to accelerate further its borrowings to complete faster its LINE project so that by the time it's ready for production, they can sell at rising rather than declining PP cycle prices.

However, speeding up the LINE project including accelerating borrowings further should further cause LCTITAN share price to fall, as market is already so fearful. Board and Management have already been super ambitious, why not even more DOUBLY, DOUBLY ambitious??? ;-)

LCTITAN competitor looking to expand should seriously consider buying LCTITAN share. LCTITAN spends RM4 billion cash to turn cash into asset where buying LCTITAN shares would be like buying these RM 4 billion assets at the price of 22 sen for every RM1 spent. No need to expand themselves - all of them should band in, just buy LCTITAN shares and when have enough, execute a breakup and own these assets at massive discounts. They should punish LCTITAN Board and senior management for being so ambitious and irresponsible - the best punishment is get rid of them!

Perhaps all the Buy Analysts are too junior and believe the 60:40 Debt:Equity promise.
- On paper, the Equity is huge. RM15.6 billion. (equivalent to RM5.25/share).
- On paper, 60:40 means they can borrow up to RM25 billion!!
- Current market cap is only RM2.6 billion.

If this company borrows RM25 billion with Debt / Market Cap of 10 times, will this company still be around or all its assets will have already been liquidated and go into PN17? How real is the equity of RM5.25/share when market is valuing these at RM1.15??? I would say practically impossible because noone has the cash, else, they would already be grabbing LCTITAN at RM1.15/share ...