With hindsight, this is a stock one should have loaded up during uncertain times. This company has almost no debt and is in very nice Net Cash position. When revenue declined, because its Finance costs is negligible, it continues to be able to keep its PAT a very nice positive. It has a war chest that it is now utilizing to reward shareholders to make itself leaner and more agile. This is the right way.

Many people don't realize and think all property developers are identical. They are not. Those that has the highest gearing also has the highest risk. This company is very well managed financially and deserves the spike in price. The brand name is well recognized, when foreigners come back, they will gravitate towards recognized names like UOADEV and UOAREIT.

Most impatient investors don't like stocks that pays once a year dividend, but I love it when I own 40+ diversified stocks! Now, looks like it's wanting to change to 2x per year dividend payments, which is also okay with me. Nice!!

As a dividend investor who owns both UOADEV and UOAREIT, I am extremely happy that UOADEV will now pay for the first time, a 20 sen Interim Dividend in addition to its annual once a year "First and Final Dividend" which will no longer be a "First and Final". I cannot imagine how they can pay 20 sen + 10 sen Final = 30 sen Dividend when my cost price is only 1.59 excluding past dividends received. The dividend yield is unheard of! Wow, wow, wow!!!

Nice strong push to 3.59. Been holding since 3.26.

Mabel, good to hear you are able to reenter at 6.24. I bought at 6.01 but wasn't able to add anything at lower prices. Now just sitting still and nice to see today's price action to 6.50. Already nearly 2 year's dividend gains but price action is nice with nice potential for some bullish action ahead. Let monitor and see.

ANNJOO looks like doing a bull run? 1.15 close today is nice.

Steel and commodity stocks are not buy and hold but cyclical. Buy during cycle low, sell during cycle high, easily beat 3% per annum for past 10 years.

dompeilee, have you taken profits yet? Lunch time hits 1.55, which on daily charts is right at the 200dMA. RSI also overbought in a general downtrend. I imagine the day traders will have taken / will be taking profits this afternoon. Some short-biased traders may also be looking to sell at these levels since the technical damage to the chart is quite significant and won't be so easy to be bullish after such prolonged falls.

I suspect, nothing to do this week but keep holding. Somebody is clearly still accumulating.

However, on the same multi-year weekly charts, there are many potential hidden bearish divergences when measuring price against RSI. A hidden bearish divergence means potential for price to fall. As GTRONIC price suffered a very prolonged and massive fall over several years, it is normally not a straight line up to make new highs - more normal for it to zig up, zag down, etc. Against the weekly candlesticks, more likely to have opportunities to buy back at a lower price the first time. It will be different the 2nd or 3rd time.

Clearly, GTRONIC's market is no longer bearish. A strong rounded bottom has been seen in multi year weekly chart. However, the rise the past 2 months is very strong. Typically (but not always), there should be some retracement near the neckline. A normal turnaround should see a healthy 38% Fibonacci retracement (say 20-25 sen from neckline). A strong bull might see less like 20% retracement (say 12-15 sen).

So, if one sells at 1.65, then, the place to pick it back up again is around 1.50 to 1.40 say.

However, once the market turns from either bearish or sideways, into a bull market, the key is to sit tight and don't sell. In a bull market, never, never sell, until you see the market turns. In such markets, you can sell a bit late and typically, it creates higher value than selling too early. Only in bearish / sideways market is it worth to sell a little bit early. In a bull market, sell a bit later.

The question of whether to sell or not sell is a very interesting and very important topic.

My best advice is keep track of your own sales performance. Note the date and price of selling and monitor what would happen for at least 1 year after sale, to see if overall, you are better off not selling or selling.

My own past observations points to me these strong personal conclusions:
1. If markets remain in a sideways range / bearish mode, then, almost always, my sale generates value i.e. I am typically able to buy back at a lower price, i.e. trading adds a little bit/some value.
2. If markets shoots up strongly, then, my sale creates negative value, because the opportunity cost is typically greater, as price can shoot up higher than what anyone can expect - some cases are like this.

My experience is that 1. happens more often in recent years and 2. occurs rarely. Nevertheless, when 2 occurs, the opportunity cost, when measured against peak price can be quite large. The problem for me though is that I could never pick the peak price.

But the benefit of 1. is that it gives me a more stable result. Given my modest objective, which is to beat EPF returns, selling a bit too early meets my objective.

However, some of you may have more aggressive objective, in which case, you may consider to look for the big win later.

NatsukoMishima
U believe or not after u sell it skyrocket to rm 2.xx later !

I still do retain some for speculative purposes like above. For the bulk, I execute my dividend strategy.

Our observations are price always zigzag up and down, whether anyone here sell or don't sell, buy or don't buy. That's market truth. Today it zag down after overbought at 1.65 to 1.53 as I write this. Later, it'll zig back up after oversold.

Definitely strong zig up bullish momentum since May (2 months). Zig zag principle means expects some zag down periods too later, before zig up again.

When I first bought GTRONIC, the Dividend yield was 6.0%. However, with strong price run up to 1.6x, the Dividend yield has shrunk to 3.8% - to me, it is enough reason to sell as it is moving away from my objective which is high predictable dividend income. Last year dividend was 7 sen, hence, cashing in makes sense to cash in many many years of dividends. I have 40+ stocks, I have no particular love for any one stock, I just execute my dividend income strategy as consistent as I can.

Yes. Just saw the announcement a few moments ago. Turns out they bought 2.2 million shares ranging from 1.42 to 1.50 as announced. I didn't see the announcement, but based on price charts, I deduced 1.42 and 1.50.

Hapseng is 3.2% of my portfolio. Don't bet the farm.

Btw, I like what the Monthly Candlestick chart is showing - the hidden bullish divergence looks to be forming nicely if price does not make a new low this month. Give it a few more months and the uptrend on this stock will be amazing given the chart structure.

For those who has written off Hapseng, consider its profitability over the past 10 years and note the resilience of Management. Here's the Maximum Quarter Profits over the past 10 years:
Q1/23 - 51m (too early to tell)
Q3/22 - 563m
Q3/21 - 381m
Q4/20 - 351m
Q4/19 - 681m
Q2/18 - 644m
Q2/17 - 629m
Q2/16 - 606m
Q2/15 - 557m
Q2/14 - 245m

So, I personally won't take Q1/23 profit of 51m and then annualize it to 204m. It is 100% certain that such highly simplistic methodology will be incorrect by the time this year end comes. Hapseng earnings is seasonal, we'll have to wait till 31/12/2023 before I write off Hapseng. For now, it's buy the dips - buying dips means I put faith on Hapseng Management to resolve its profitability problems like what it has done for an extremely long time over the past 10 years, every year.

Hapseng has a potential bearish divergence, showing likely price falls - today's intraday high is only 3.28, lower than the intraday high at the end of June of 3.29. If it fails to break above 3.29, then, the likely direction is lower, perhaps testing 3.0x. So, that's where I'll wait to add more to Hapseng. No need to chase, let price comes to you.

SPTOTO rose strongly touching 1.50. 1.50 is a normal resistance and a potential neckline where it should fall back to around 1.42 or so. Let's see if this rally is real or not. At 1.42 or 1.50, SPTOTO is cheap with very high dividend yield.

Market took out my sale at 1.63. My remaining holdings, excluding dividends, cost is 0.19. If include dividends is closer to 8 sen after factoring in both buy and sell commissions. So, nothing more to do here for this stock.

Today is a good day to take profits as RSI is clearly overbought.

I feel this stock is better to buy when price is low. The dividends is high and nice and act like FD where if wrong for years, you don't lose because it pays high dividend higher than FD and you can afford to wait. But when the price runs up, it runs up fast and easy to earn +30, +40, + 50% gain. I accumulated at 1.02, 1.03, 1.03, 1.11, 1.17. I took profits at 1.41, 1.54. Maybe a bit too early to take profits but still have more than 60% bought. I wouldn't buy at 1.6 personally and would wait for price to dip first.

My last buy was 3.08. Was hoping it would hit 3 to add but didn't. I am patient and still queueing. Let's hope the weak undertone works for next few months and price falls to fill me there :-).

A few weeks ago, I collected ANNJOO at RM1.02, 1.01, and 1. Nice to see today's movement. Hope we'll see sustained rise.

The last analyst, on 20/6/23 said this:

"Astro Malaysia - Positive Risk-Reward; Keep BUY
Date: 2023-06-20
Firm: RHB-OSK
Stock: ASTRO
Price Target: 0.84 😂
Price Call: BUY 😂
Last Price: 0.53
Upside/Downside: +0.31 (58.49%) 😂

Keep BUY and MYR0.84 TP (DCF), 27% upside and 9% forward dividend yield. 😂
Astro Malaysia’s results were broadly in line, with the quarter characterised by seasonality. We expect core earnings to stage a rebound in FY24 (Jan) from lower content cost and cost efficiencies. In our view, a potential re-rating catalyst could well come from a privatisation. 😂"

You got to laugh at how many gullible retailers out there believe privatisation. Yeah yeah ... heard that one before so many times. Nevertheless, eventually, a broken clock will be right 2 times per day. Trouble is - those who keep saying BUY, BUY, BUY for the past few years are worse than a broken clock.

Analysts continue to stay in denial for many years now. Even today, click "Price Target" and you'll see 16 Buy recommendations and 11 Hold recommendations. Anyone that goes against all these Analysts recommendation by selling would have beaten all of them.

I wont be surprised if Astro falls below 50 sen like 40 sen. The best time to average down is after it has found bottom. Then deploy limited capital - you have no choice but to pick bottoms and sell some when it spike up so that when it makes a new low, you can buy back again. Extremely, extremely hard to do this successfully, but today is not the day to buy IMHO. It needs to find a bottom.

Don't catch a falling knife. Let it find a new base. Be patient.

lastly, if your fund manager plays warrants and trades speculative stocks, what you want the manager to do is to pay regular yearly dividends. You don't want him to hoard lots of cash, because one day, he's going to use that cash to buy more warrants and more speculative stocks and that won't be a happy ending.

If shareholders forces him to have the discipline to pay regular dividends (one that beats EPF), his stock price is going to SOAR.

Sadly, ICAP share price has been flat for the last 10-15 years, with its ups and downs. In Sep 2007, its share price is the same as today. That's nearly 16 years. Anyone who puts monies into FD to earn 3% p.a. will have beaten ICAP hands down. Anyone who puts monies into EPF to earn 5%-6% would have beaten ICAP hands down.

The question is why does FD and EPF outperforms ICAP? The answer lies in its holdings. When you own speculative stocks and warrants, you need to buy low and sell high, not sit on it for too long. If you sit too long on speculative stocks and warrants, you are not going to perform well.

My other criticism of TTB is that he has no exit strategy for his top speculative holdings - he doesn't seem to have a credible exit strategy for SAM or for PADINI yet. It's different if it's not speculative, but looking at the price action for both, it's too speculative for me.

In short, I think that NAV of 3.42 cannot be converted into cash in this current environment.
It needs a strong bull market and TTB has to have the discipline to sell when the stocks he owns rises - if he tries to sell when the price is coming down, he will only accelerate the NAV fall.
Trouble is Malaysia KLCI market is not in a bull market right now, hence, the huge discount to NAV.

Consider SAM. To me, the chart needs to "consolidate". It has gone up too fast too soon. That massive run up from Rm2 to RM6.4 and then crashed down to RM2.76 is not for the faint hearted. This is also not a Warren Buffett type stock, looks more speculative to me. It is ICAP biggest holding at nearly 18% holdings out of 70% stocks, his number 1 holding. I like to see TTB tries to sell SAM and see what happens to the stock price if he tries to cash out - e.g. if he tries to reduce his 18% holdings down to say 5%. SAM I think will crash if he does that.

Consider PADINI. To me, the chart looks "tired". Massive run up till mid 2018, then, massive crash from 6.2 peak down to 1.78 low - this kind of price action is not really a Warren Buffett type stock, but speculative stock. PADINI has a lot of competition, I think the high of 6.2 will not be met again for many years to come. The chart just screams "tired" to me. Owning 14.0% out of 70% in stocks in PADINI is not what I would do.

However, one day, when Malaysia market gets to bull market - then, ICAP will do very well with its speculative strategy owning warrants and owning high growth stocks. That massive discount will shrink giving super booster returns. The question though is - when will KLCI turns into a super bull market? I think still a few years to come.

I see a few people quoted what TTB writes. It's okay, but do use your own independent mind to look beyond what he's written. Analyze what he owns, rather that regurgitate what he says. I personally ignores what he says and just look at what he owns. I ask myself - do I want him to manage my funds? The answer = I'm not too sure, because he's a speculator. If I was 30 years younger, maybe, but not today.

ICAP is a speculative fund - the fund holds a lot of warrants. I personally avoid that.
I also would never own Capital A for up to 4.3% of my portfolio, but TTB isn't worried about that.
I would not own so much (more than say 6% of portfolio) like 17.9%, 14.0% and 9.0% in Sam Eng, Padini, Kelington. I have zero holdings in these 3 counters. I just don't believe in more upside for them, and think there's more downside than upside, but I could be wrong.

It is true that ICAP NAV has massive discounts to their market prices. There is a reason for this that is structural.
Basically, Market does not believe TTB can sell its holdings at market value. Just look at how concentrated ICAP holdings are, look at their stock prices, and ask yourself - what will happen if TTB tries to sell at current depressed market? I believe, its holdings will collapse, market value collapse, and the NAV crashes. Look at ICAP biggest holdings:
1. Sam Engineering 17.9%
2. Padini Holdings 14.0%
3. Kelington Group 9.0%
4. Capital A 4.3%
5. Kronologi Asia 3.3%
6. Apex 3.0%
7. Suria Capita 3.0%
8. Hibiscus Petroleum 2.8%
9. United Plantation 2.6%
The Top 9 represents 60% of its NAV. Nearly 30% is in Cash. Remaining 10% is spread across many small stocks.

If you want to own ICAP, ask yourself first - do you want to own all of its Top 9 holdings today, even at 50% discount and never sell? These stocks has a tendency to crash when there's a big seller.

There is a simple way for TTB to raise its share price. Just pay 7% dividend every year - he has tons of cash. He has tons of NAV. If the stock value holds, he should be able to sell some of the high value stocks convert to cash and pay cash out. If he does this, his stock price will SOAR to bridge the NAV discount to nil.

But 2 reasons why he won't do it.
1. He doesn't like to sell so much.
2. He is stubborn and doesn't believe in paying out high dividends.

Coupled with, market not believing in his holdings.

The only reason you want to own ICAP is because:
1. You think bull market is coming - in bull market, ICAP discount will shrink.
2. You believe TTB will start cashing out some of its biggest (speculative) holdings in such a way that he's able to convert to cash without causing the market price to crash.
3. You believe TTB will start paying out high dividends more than EPF rate like 7%.

He has loads of cash. He can afford to pay 7% dividends for many many many years.

CHINWEL is a highly cyclical counter. Last quarter was the second time to have earnings loss. In Q4/2020, also another big earnings loss. Near term this business faces tough times and it could take a few months to 1-2 years to improve. Cash is no problem for this company, investors need to have patience. I am patiently waiting for lower than RM1.28 price to add.

Patience. For those who know Technical Analysis using Price and RSI and understand hidden bearish and hidden bullish divergences, turn on to Monthly Candlesticks. There was strong signal to exit in Feb 2020 after years near RM10. The next month, in Mar 2020, there was strong bullish divergence for the last quick pop up in June 3 months later. Now we wait for typically a few months to see if the charts show a hidden bullish divergence. When its clear, it will be time to load up. But not yet. Patience and be willing to wait for a few months.

ASTRO Q1/24 EPS of 0.30 is under-whelming, the lowest EPS result in last 10 years for Qtr 1. It's dividend of 0.25 is equally under-whelming, the lowest DPS result in last 10 years for Qtr 1 too. It's Q1 revenue is the lowest in last 10 years too.

Given such underwhelming results, will we see the lowest stock price over past 10 years too?
This stock NTA is only 21 sen.

In fact, the 3.2% is against cost. Hapseng is now only 3.1% of my portfolio on Market Value basis. This means, as price falls, my Hapseng falls but because the rest of my portfolio grows slightly, Hapseng already becomes a slightly smaller part of my entire portfolio. All I did was slow down my accumulation when I'm wrong.

If you do the above, then, "Stop buying" is a very powerful tool when we are wrong.

To illustrate. Let say I am wrong at 3.3 entry and price drops 20% to 2.64. My 3.2% shrinks by 20% too to become 2.56% of my portfolio if I "stop buying" and the rest of my portfolio is say flat. It is a good thing if your losses naturally becomes a smaller and smaller part of your portfolio. Go to other businesses and focus to win there.

And mathematically, if the rest of the business wins there, then, your losing 2.56% shrinks even further.

It is a very good thing, when you do nothing to your losses, that they shrink naturally to allow the rest of your portfolio to win.

This is simple maths to ensure winning.

So, how do I measure against dividends? Simple. 2 benchmarks:
1. EPF - let say EPF pays 5%. 5% x RM3 = 15 sen. So, if Hapseng pays me more than 15 sen dividend per year, I win.
2. Fixed Deposits - let say 3%. 3% x RM3 = 9 sen. So, if Hapseng pays less than 15 sen, but still pay me higher than 9 sen, I am okay and can accept this because it's still better than FD.

So, compare against:
DPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 = 30 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 25 (Covid) / 35 / 30.
EPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 / 23Q1 = 42.3 / 43 / 44.2 / 46 / 46.7 / 30.1 (Covid) / 36.2 / 38.2 / 2 (Spooky).

If you treat your (up to 5% portfolio) investment like EPF or FD where you never check on them, what are the odds over the next 5 years that you'll lose out to EPF or FD, when this highly diversified profitable conglomerate business will lose out to EPF or FD?

I think over a 5 to 10 year outlook, the odds it would lose to EPF and FD is minimal. Very, very likely, it'll beat them well.

But never bet the farm or the house, or even the car on this 1 stock - diversify.

However, if there is another Asian Financial Crisis, or a Global Financial Crisis, or another Covid pandemic, market sell of like mad. Then, everything you own crashes including 40+ businesses. Then, if market crashes 20%, your portfolio should lose a bit less than 20% too (or less because it's dividend paying businesses).

But wait out 1-2 years and price bounce back and it's like nothing happened. You keep collecting dividends as these businesses keeps making profits.

To illustrate (for those who are strong in simple mathematics).
My ownership of Hap Seng is 3.2% of my portfolio with an average price of below RM3.3. (let's use 3.3 for simplicity).
Let say I am wrong 20% and Hap Seng falls down to 2.64, around the RM2.6-2.7 support price.
My loss = 20% x 3.2% = 0.6% of capital - I don't lose sleep or even bother to watch the price.
Instead, I focus on its dividends.
And note, it is extremely hard to lose 1% capital.

However, because I own over 40+ diversified businesses, there is maybe 1 or 2 stocks in the past where I stopped buying at lower prices because I was wrong about the future business prospects. They never hurt me more than 1% of my portfolio at the worst so far.

Appreciate there's lot of traders here. I'm not a trader. So, I never cut loss. I also rarely sell. I'm an investor who likes to collect real, profitable, cash generating businesses that pays dividends, and I like to own them at cheaper and cheaper prices. The only time I sell is when price goes up and the dividend yield shrinks and shrinks and shrinks that when it is over-valued, then, I let go. So, lower prices is to accumulate, high enough higher prices is time to start to de-cumulate (i.e. let go very slowly at higher and higher and higher prices). I never cut loss.

Institutional funds cannot afford to buy in a downtrend and show a poor quarterly result.
But the advantage of individual investor is that I never measure my performance on a quarterly basis or even on yearly basis on market prices - it's a folly game. Instead, I measure on how much dividend yield I get.
So, if you have a multi year outlook, on a diversified range of portfolio, you can't help but get a good result if you do things like this.