In summary:
- No Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No Special Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No sign of bottoming to the Borrowings.
- Company needs to commit to borrow even more - maybe another RM5.5 billion.
- The entire Company's equity is not enough to back. Debt to Market Cap is ridiculously high.
- Feedstock naphtha is still on its way up and getting more costly to further create even bigger losses to come.
- Very likely to have further shareholder dilution.

What is keeping analysts from seeing these bad news over the coming 2-3 years?

For shareholders, the biggest worry is whether the company will start asking for rights issue in the coming 1-2 years. The capital needs is at least another RM5.5 billion for the LINE project and more. Already, the company is in net debt position. This is another RM2.50 equivalent of debt to be had. Current company price is RM1.15. Shareholders should grill the Board and Management whether or not they foresee rights issue in the next 3 years to dilute existing shareholder's share. Analysts should analyze this angle more and be more transparent in their next 3 year projections, if there's going to be further shareholder dilution. Then, recommend SELL clearly!

Such a sorry state of affairs. This company's NAV is around 5.25/shr, yet, the stock is trading only at RM1.15, and the company - that used to be flushed with cash, but now in debt, and expects the debt to keep rising - can't afford to do any share buyback, despite TREMENDOUS value .... Price/Book is only 0.22 ... basically every RM1 of asset in the company is only worth 22 sen ... including the RM4 billion recently spent to convert cash into asset. Such an extremely sorry state of affairs. The entire Board and Senior Management responsible for this sorry state of affairs should all be sacked.

The primary feedstock for LCTITAN's business is naphtha. Since July 2023, Naphtha prices has risen from a low of USD520/T to near USD700/T ... it'll be interesting to watch the Q3 report at the end of this Oct - the question is will Q3 losses be even bigger than Q2 loss?

From last AGM:

What is the anticipated dividend rate for FYE 2023?
The Company has a dividend policy of paying 50% of our profit. We will continue to meet that
requirement and pay the 50% dividend on profit. If the Company has sufficient cash like last year,
we will consider declaring special dividend to reward shareholders, subject to Board approval.

Commentary: Looks like in 2023, there won't be any dividends paid since:
1. Expected Net Profit is negative i.e. nil Dividends.
2. Net Cash is negative i.e. nil Special Dividends.

When will all analysts call for a Sell? Then, the bottom will come quicker.

Bottom may still not be in sight. Analyst recommendations: 1 Sell, 1 Hold, 2 Buys. When the 2 Buys become Hold/Sell, then, can safely go in and accumulate. Haha.

3 years ago, it's hard to believe that LCTITAN's Net Cash was worth RM1.69 (nearly RM4 billion).
Today, all that Net Cash is gone ... zero and negative once include borrowings. As a result, today's price is hovering near RM1.
This is a classic case of how ambitious management destroys wealth:
1. Net Cash alone is meaningless - the stockmarket is littered with examples where new ambitious management who inherited the Net Cash destroys all past hard work.
2. The problem with this company is that it doesn't share more regularly the previous Net Cash with shareholders.
3. The bigger problem is that management is not held accountable by shareholders - shareholders let management destorys wealth. Else, the CEO and the whole management team should already be sacked, but it's far too late for that now.

Had they not be so ambitious, this stock will still be trading 2-3 times higher than today..... and I wouldn't have bought a single share!!! Haha.

This stock is volatile. It dropped below RM1 before during Covid scare (Mar 2020). Then, it rallied 3.5 times to over RM3.50 in 12 months. And now, it's doing a "die slowly" drop for 2+ years ... still downtrending and trading below the 200dMA and the slope of the 200dMA is still down - it's trying to form a base. That base will take a long time to form. I'm still unsure if lower prices is a buy, as this company has taken on a lot of debt and what was previously excellent Balance Sheet has now turned messy. However, the business it's in is cyclical and as it so happens, current cycle is not so good. Utilization was 66%, management seems optimistic that this will rise to 70%-75% in the coming months, but nobody really knows the future. I feel I already have enough, so, likely there's nothing to do but to sit tight.

Market needs to be convinced that this company will grow its EPS before its price goes back up again. All that lawsuits were distractions. This company need to focus on growing its EPS. If it can't do this when times are good, it will gain a bad reputation.

"Under the Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER), the government has set an ambitious target of renewable energy providing 31 percent (13 gigawatts) of the nation’s energy needs by 2025 and 40 percent (18 gigawatts) by 2035. The Government has further committed to increase RE capacity to 70% in 2050, to be in line with the national climate aspiration of achieving net zero GHG earliest by 2050."

Malakoff all fired up on energy transition plan - see yesterday's news.

If we compare HLIND to say MAYBANK, clearly, one is more superior to dividend investor than the other. I have greater peace of mind and hold much larger in one than the other. The wierd thing is business wise, I like the other one better, only if he shares the wealth with shareholder.

Quek is a shrewd businessman, it's deep in his DNA to find ways to enrich himself further and Bursa rules doesn't apply to him.

Observatory, net cash, the PE is only 4+, and dividend yield at RM9 is 6%, so, for me, I'm happy to hold my 2% in this stock, put it in a drawer mentally,. and forget I even own this stock. My cost is well below RM9, if price drops below my cost, I'm happy to add but otherwise, not really much for me to do as it is a good boring stock. Clearly the TTM57 sen dividend is supportable for long term, I cannot imagine them cutting dividends, however, the only thing I can imagine is one day, either one time or several times, some of that cash holdings won't necessarily go to minority shareholders when it should be.

What happened with the recent "plunge" the past 1-2 weeks? Normal price action and part of the bottoming process. Having plunged so much from RM7, it tried to find a base at around RM6 in March and failed, then tried to find base at around RM5 from Mar to May and failed, didn't bother much with R4 and failed, and now tried to find base at RM3 for the past 2 months. It tries to rally but hit a resistance near the 20dMA twice and failing to recapture the resistance, needs to "plunge" down again the past few days. All these are normal price actions where there's really not much to do but just let market does what it does. As the 20dMA and 200dMA slope is still downtrending, the rebasing normally (more than 50% chance) will take a very long time - measured in several months minimum - and we'll probably know in Q4 or next year if the bottom is really RM3 or not. Given this is now coming to 2 months, and given the size of the fall, odds are increasing that RM3 could be the real bottom from a multi-month perspective i.e. investors around these prices will now start to be very interested in this stock. If you are an investor that waits patiently and let price comes to you at lower prices, this would be one of the stock to keep in the radar screen. I am not in full allocation yet because a part of me thinks there is a minority chance that it could go below RM3 sometime this year and if it does, I plan to add some more because I have a multi-year perspective.

I think there's a 50% chance that market may repeat what happened in 2000-2005. Basically Genting does nothing during this 5-6 year period, trading in a range. However, when it broke out above the trading range, due to the very long period of doing nothing, within 12 months or so, it more than doubled and nearly tripled.

For past 3 years (since 2020, after Covid scare) Genting has been trading in a range too. I think there's a chance that maybe within the next 1-3 years, Genting will break out and when it does, we may see a potential doubling.

However, I doubt there are many investors here who is this patient and can wait for several years ...

Still making lower highs past 3 years = distribution. Not accumulation yet. Don’t chase, let price comes to you.

With stocks on downtrend, no need to chase. Let price comes to you.

I queued to add more at 10.02 GTC for weeks. So far not yet filled.

Jnlee, I am not a professional nor qualified advisor, so I don’t give advice. However, I bought for my own account when it was 32.5, 33 and a little at 33.5 Sen.

Oh, in case if you have doubts, Quek never listens to shareholders. The proof is simple:
1. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see some of the Net Cash position rising from 200m to 1.6 billion over past 7-8 years declared as special dividend? Yes / No?
2. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see a dividend payout ratio that is higher than past 8 years like 80% instead of paltry amounts like 50% in some years. Yes / No?

I can bet you that if HLIND were to survey 1,000 of minority shareholders, nearly 1000 will say Yes to both questions.

But do you think HLIND cares about minority shareholder views? Ha ha ha

In case if you think that the cash cannot disappear, it is too easy for Quek to force HLIND to buy one of its own businesses at exhorbitant price, transfer the assets into HLIND and transfer the cash out of HLIND. Then, suddenly, that huge pile of RM1.6 billion disappear.

Because of this lack of trust, this stock price has stabilized around RM9 for a very, very long time. If HLIND really want to increase its share price to RM15, this can be done very easy, by just raising the dividends by 67% and the price will quickly go up.

Problem is someone has other plans for HLIND huge cash pile of RM1.6 billion and it won't go to HLIND shareholders.

This stock is really not about electric motorcycles or anything. It has a clearly superior business that generates huge amount of cash - just look at how it increases its cash pile by 8 times in 8 years. Its management is superior. It's business model is excellent.

The only problem is - when will shareholders gets their share of the cash?

Market has not overlooked HLIND for 7 years. It's giving a low value to HLIND not because of its poor business, but because HLIND doesn't share its net cash with shareholders, leaving the market to speculate that one day, shareholders will lose out on the Net Cash.

Here's a sample snapshot of HLIND Net Cash over past years:
3/2016 = 275m
3/2017 = 379m
3/2018 = 645m
3/2019 = 1041m
3/2020 = 1232m
3/2021 = 1580m
3/2022 = 1351m
3/2023 = 1636m

Market has lost patience with HLIND for generating so much profit and cash, but only giving lip service increase in dividends. And yes, historically, market trust on Quek is too low that Quek will share with shareholders. Hence, market is penalizing Quek because current cash is worth at least RM5, the business priced at 9-5 = RM4.
It's long term EPS is around 90 sen, which means the business is priced only at a PE of only 4+.


Is the business really poor? Of course not! This business generates so much cash.

So, where's the problem?

Simple. Market over the past decades doesn't trust Quek. The Net Cash grew from 200 million to 1,600 million and it is not even shared with shareholders - the dividends could have been so much larger than the lip service increment given.

The best thing analyst can do is draw this long term attention to the market. Push HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders. Else, market won't value this stock well.

It doesn't take much to increase the dividend yield from current 5.9% to say 10%. The business earnings yield is right now well over 22% or higher. This means raising dividends by another 67% higher. This won't even eat into the 1.6 billion net cash.

This is a classic situation where HLIND simply refuse to share its wealth with shareholders. No matter how great the business is, no matter how large the cash pile is, they continue to refuse to share.

I have around 2% of my portfolio in HLIND to earn a paltry 6%, when this business can easily reward shareholders twice as much without dipping into its cash.

The question is - who is going to force HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders?

Looks like it wants to challenge the 200dMA of 2.26 this week.

And look at the stock price over past 20 years. A clear trading range emerges. The low floor is around 80-90 sen. The high ceiling is around RM2. Anytime any analyst tells your their target price is higher than RM2, you can ignore and laugh. Anytime analyst tell you to sell below RM1, you can ignore and accumulate. The 20 year price action is the KING that guides you on when to buy and when to sell, because the underlying business of this counter, the industry it's in, is cyclical.

And this counter always reward shareholders. Always pay 40% 2 quarter earnings. In bad times, it dips into its cash chest and floors negative earnings. I think 40% is a bit too low, it could easily raise this to 50% and when it does this one day, the stock will re-rate upwards. Still with its business generating 20% long term earnings yield, I am not complaining.

Analysts tend to be too short term - if you follow their call, you'll be doing the opposite of what you should be doing. If you look at say Public Bank analyst call, when price is high, they tell you to buy, and when price is lower, they tell you to hold. This doesn't make sense if the business is sound fundamentally and management reward shareholders consistently. In this type of rare stocks, you do better buying low and selling high.

I believe an opportunity to collect is coming again. Q3/23 EPS of -0.01 is disappointing to dividend investors. If Q4/23 EPS is say 2-3 sen, dividend will only be 0.8-1.2 sen which will disappoint many investors. That's the time to queue to buy at low price.

This stock is great to accumulate at low price because of its Net Cash position. Valuation is very undemanding at 0.6 x P/B (including cash; excluding cash even smaller). It is also undemaning from PE perspective, with nearly 57 sen in cash i.e. business sold at say 1.37-0.57 = 0.80. It's long term EPS (say average 8 years) is at least 16 sen, suggesting if you are prepared to own this business for 8 years and get 16 sen, it's PE is only 5 i.e. long term earnings yield of 20% and long term dividend yield of 8%.

However, market is fickled and along the way, will push this counter price up much higher and push it down much higher, giving rise to trading.

This is a counter where if one believes in its fundamental business, a low price is time to accumulate and hold and sell when the counter price rises.

However, around this time, the charts are showing higher than normal risk, as it fails to recapture the uptrend line i.e. more than 50% chance, more downtrend to come.

However, as I bought low and I'm a long term investor, lower price to me is just good reason to accumulate more.

28/7 share buyback 1.12-1.15.
27/7 share buyback 1.09-1.13
Ah Beng bought 21-24/7. Wa lau ... like this also can ahh?
I own a small speculative price position at 1.04. (This is not for dividend but price speculative). Will be looking to sell near the next resistance.

For long term investment, this has been a great uptrending stock for 2 decades, but I'm more pessimistic over next decade, as politics becomes more extreme. I would need a low price to get into this stock, with a forward looking dividend yield of at least 5%. Last year's dividend of 138 sen was a record, but historically, when it makes record, the following year dividend dips down. I suspect we'll see 2023 dividend to be lower. If I take the average of the 3 highest ever dividend in last 8 years, that works out to be an average of 116 sen. Applying 5% dividend yield gives me an entry price of RM23.2. It's now trading at RM26.5.

The odds of me entering at RM23-24 is low, maybe less than 20% chance. Price needs to drop a lot, like 62% retracement from the massive 2020 Covid range.

But low price to me is a valid reason to enter in a stock like this one. Just wait for a crisis.

CARLSBG is shareholder friendly - over past 8 years, it pays nearly 100% of its earnings to shareholders as dividends. Some years lower than earnings, some years higher, on average, around 100%. I like this type of shareholder who pays 80%+ of its earnings back to shareholders.

However, CARLSBG problem, as everyone noted above, is its earnings. 2022 looked like turning around, but 2023/Q1 has dipped slightly below 2022/Q1, causing investors to be wary if they've seen the peak in CARLSBG earnings. Last year, we saw 88 sen dividend, if there's a dip, I think we could be looking at 80-84 sen dividend this year.

Typically, I like my dividend yield at a minimum of 5%, but for this quality stock, 4.5% may be acceptable. At 82 sen dividend, my buy price will be around RM18.22, around Feb 2020 low. Probably less than 20% chance of happening.

Still, this stock is in my radar screen. A low price is a good reason to get into this stock.

This kind of long term stock price chart is suitable for long term dividend holding. Much higher dividend yield than BESHOM and looks much much better too.

5 months ago, someone shared a YouTube post saying MBMR is a sell when 7 analysts call a Buy. I actually concurred with the long term chart analysis and sold some around 3.95. The chartist also dream a very strong support line since 2008. I also concurred and think this stock is worth accumulating near support line as the dividend yield is fantastic.

A stock like BESHOM on such long term downtrend, is more likely to continue its downtrend. If could try to find a base but uncertain and would take a very long time. This type of stock is better left alone for several years before looking into it again. It’s not going to zoom up in straight line.

BAT is another stock on long term downtrend, but at least it’s paying over 8% dividend yield. Logically if you want to pick bottom in downtrending stock, at least do it in BAT than BESHOM.

There are so many stocks with better looking long term price charts than BESHOM and pays over 6% dividend yield. Little point to consider this dying stock.

I may consider at around 83 Sen. For a stock like this, I need 6% dividend yield and since dividend has been cut to 5 Sen, when the price drops to 83 sen, it works out at 6% dividend yield.

Alfred still here. Bat man and Robin already left.

You can confidently own this stock at the bottom. Never chase, as over the past decade, it is still downtrending and over the past 3 years, trying to form a base. This sort of price action will take a long time to turnaround (if any), hence, when you have a price gain of 15%-20% or more, always sell some as it will take years to turnaround.

This company generates cash, and shares that with its shareholders consistently every year. I think we've seen the worst dividends (20 sen) in 2019-2020. It now pays 25 sen. The dividend yield = 25 sen / 4.27 ~ 5.9% which is solid. This stock is better bought on the dip. Its dividend payout ratio is very sustainable, as it earns around 40 sen. It also has over RM1 equivalent in Net Cash, so, it can keep paying out high dividends from both its cash chest and its yearly profits. This stock pays better than EPF. I would buy the dips, and not chase as the dividend yield is higher when its price is low.

If compare small banks like BIMB over the past 8 years, I very much prefer BIMB.
AMBANK dividend = 18.3, 5, 0, 13.3, 20, 15, 17.6, 15.5. Sum over 8 years = 104 sen. AMBANK price 3.82
BIMB dividend = 13.8, 10.9, 12.6, 16, 15.5, 14, 13, 12.2. Sum over 8 years = 108 sen. BIMB price 2.16

It is very clear, BIMB takes care of its shareholders much, much better than AMBANK.
Both companies are under-valued, relative to its NTA and PE.

But I owned BIMB 10 times the size of my ownership of AMBANK, because I prefer for the long term, the way BIMB shares its profits with shareholders. It can still improve a lot as it is still only sharing 38% of its historical earnings only.

Long term chart suggest that the worst is over - the bottom is likely to be the bottom observed in 2020-2021.
The bank is under-valued but is under-valued for a reason. It doesn't share its wealth with shareholders. Despite earning 52 sen, it only paid 18 sen. The prior 3 years, total dividend is a measly 5 sen, 0 sen, 13 sen.

And this bank has a bad reputation to look after shareholders.

Many people look at under-value first. For me, I look at how well it treat shareholders in the past over many, many years. This bank, my confidence level, to take care of me as shareholders, is much lower than other banks like Maybank.

Still, some of the best speculative returns happens when perception changes. So, I own a very small amount for speculation only, but I'm not topping up, because I am just waiting to dispose at the swing high price. This is not for marriage, but just a one night stand. You never marry someone who doesn't take care of you over past decades.

UOADEV is still cheap at 1.87. Historically, it pays dividends around 14-15 sen. Only over past 2 years, during Covid pandemic, that the dividend was cut prudently to 10 sen. Now it starts to pay 20 sen interim dividend, which looks like a one-time thing. But going forward, if it goes back to 14 sen annual dividend (very achievable, since large net cash), that's 14 / 1.87 = 7.5% dividend yield, which is very, very nice. Sure beats EPF. Hence, despite the rise in price, I am still doing nothing and just holding as I think UOADEV is now rerated very differently from the old days when it didn't pay the 20 sen interim dividend. Going forward, if it pays dividends twice a year, 5 sen and 10 sen, I can hold on to this stock for an extremely long time.

Bought 0.65. Sold half 0.935. Good enough gain.

I am glad I sold a sizeable chunk at 1.63. My remaining holding only have an average cost of 11 sen. My reason for selling is because the original dividend yield of 6.0% has fallen to 3.8% when i sold off at 1.63. If price falls and the dividend yield is high enough, then, I'll get back in again. Dividends are the key for me.

Owning at a low price is important. My average buy price is 0.52. Last year, total dividend is 4 sen. This year, I expect around 4 sen again. 4 sen * 90% (conservatively assuming everything is taxable) ~ 3.6 sen. Yield = 3.6 sen / 52 sen ~ 6.9% which is decent and beats EPF.

It's not the best yield, not the best REIT, got some non performing properties, but the low price and the decent dividend yield makes up for it.

TTB tries to talk like Buffett, but the 2 are so completely different than one another.
- Buffett buys back Berkshire stock where Berkshire trades near NAV, consequently, Berkshire always trade at a premium to NAV.
- Whereas ICAP persistently trades a huge discount to NAV. TTB clearly doesn't believe in ICAP value to buy back ICAP shares on the cheap.

Another way to look at this from shareholder perspective is that I am happy they choose to pay additional 20 sen in dividend, after 8 years of prudent dividend paying.

geary, I am an investor. This year, my portfolio outperforms KLCI index by over 500+ basis points, with lower volatility.
trader808, many ways to skin the cat. I'm glad it has no logic to you. An advantage with investing is that one can have investing size greater than traders, so, 3% of portfolio is typically larger than what traders trade, which traders typically overlook. it is actually not much effort if you know what to look for. Been doing this for decades.

geary, I have 40+ stocks. The benchmark is 2.5%