1.53 .. nice! Contrary to analysts who called Buys when price was 1.8x and kept calling buys until it goes down to 1.3x when their tune changes to hold, I completely disregard these analysts and bought at 1.3x. SPTOTO is a stock where the lower the price goes, the cheaper it is and it's better to buy more at lower prices. If you listened to analysts, you will not make money so easily! At 1.53, my entire SPTOTO position is already profitable.

@pinky, thanks, when I saw the Q1 cashflows 2.5 months ago I thought it looks like it has potential ... my buy price at 0.80 finally filled after a long wait. Still, future is uncertain, I look forward to Q2 report in next couple weeks.

From Price Target perspective, nice to see that with HLIB no longer recommending Buy. This means, no more analyst give Buy recommendation. Finally! Analysts have capitulated!

So, as a contrarian, IMHO, the next 1-3 years is likely to be a good time to accumulate on weakness. If you don't chase and let price comes to you, then, eventually, there will be mini-rallies, and with a low average price, more chance to have paper gains that you can unlock.

For a downtrending stock, always take some profits when you have them (e.g. more than 2 year dividend gains, since odds are price is more likely to downtrend).

The risk with owning a downtrending stock is lower prices and your capital tied up for a long time. Hence, allocate a limit like 5% of portfolio and don't buy anymore once hit 5% so that the rest of your portfolio is not tied up to one downtrending stock. This is super important rule. So, plan your buys right from the start assuming limited bullets.

When BAT was trading near 10, HLIB projected Dividends for BAT:
FYE Dec FY23f FY24f FY25f
DPS (sen) 67.8 71.5 74.4
Dividend yield 6.7% 7.1% 7.4%

Basically, they are projecting DPS to fall in 2023 to 67.8 sen. Do you believe them? What's your own independent view?

BAT has cut dividends in first half 2023 from 42 sen down to 29 sen, due to lower H1/23 earnings of 30.7 sen. To get 67 sen means BAT has to declare 38 sen in H2/23 vs 46 sen in H2/22. I suppose that is also a possible, if you are pessimistic that BAT bottom is not yet in sight and dividends will continue to be cut over next 6 months.

BAT is a responsible dividend payor targetting typically around 96% payout. So, how much dividends you get is directly linked to BAT's future earnings.

My GTC order to buy at 10.02 has expired. So, I am keying in a new GTC order for 10.00 and ready to buy more below 10.

If 1.65 sen quarterly dividend hold, that's 6.6 sen per year. Divide by 80 sen = 8.25% dividend yield! Tempting!

Typo. swing high 0.985 Mar 2022. Nearly 18 months of downtrending, testing the patience of long term traders/investors.

Price has taken a dive since Feb 2023 when swing high was 0.985. Today 0.800. Fortune favors the bold, dare to buy at 0.800?

Looking forward to see its quarterly report in 2+ weeks time ... can't wait.

Looks like it want to touch RM5 resistance ... nice price action today to 4.75 or +0.22! Definite overbought, some pullback is inevitable.

Ex-div today 3.96 cents. Closed 1.10. Nice.

I could be wrong, but after hitting a recent high of 4134 on 24 July, FCPO is trading at 3776 today, lower than 7 July low of 3834. That's normally not the common sign of FCPO wants to make higher highs than 4134 yet. More likely to keep drifting downwards. Still the future is uncertain. I took some profits of TAANN to lower my average buy cost further to 2.8. Can always buy back when price is lower than 3.69 later.

1.17 close. Nice!

If not sure how to tell cycle low and cycle high, just look at the price chart since 2010. It should be obvious when were the cycle lows and cycle highs. The challenge is to know how long these cycles last - sometimes, it looks like 2 years, sometimes shorter, sometimes longer, but market always alternates, meaning if the last cycle from Mar 2020 to May 2022 was the biggest and longest, then, the next one won't be so big i.e. for this cycle, I'm thinking maybe 1-2 years and maybe half the upside than last time (last time range was massive from 4+ to 11+; this time won't be anywhere like this is my guess).

Avoid LCTITAN - it has its own issues with LINE, losses, and more borrowings needed till 2025.
I would prefer buying PCHEM dips as I think over the rest of this year and the next, we may (with say 50% chance) already seen the cycle low and we may now be on its next cycle up. Owning when its on its cycle up (if true) will prove rewarding. I am not selling what I bought at 6.01 because if that was indeed its cycle low then, buy and hold baby!

But if I have to choose between LCTITAN and PCHEM, I would consider PCHEM better. In my view, this company is better positioned to benefit from the next upcycle than LCTITAN, because of LCTITAN getting bogged down in its LINE project and so, won't be so clean to benefit from it.

Unlike my paper loss in LCTITAN, my holdings in PCHEM is already up by +13%. As they say, you should ride your winners and let your losses go ... I won't cut, but I think I may add PCHEM on dips over the next year or 2.

In Q3/23, LCTITAN's feedstock costs have soared 30-35%. Sure, its outputs PP/PE market price has also gone up but only by 5% or so ... LCTITAN's competitors like LCTITAN has seen their inventories rising in the past ... Will be interested to see if they will be able to make real change to their inventories in the coming Q3 report in October.

I think the only reason why I am still holding is because it may be possible that PP prices have already seen their cycle low. Last 2 cycle lows were Jan 2016 and Mar 2020. Was May 2023 the cycle low or more new lows to come? If May 2023 turns out to be cycle low, then, may be good to accumulate LCTITAN ... problem though is that by the time LINE comes on board in 2025, PP prices may have peaked and come down i.e. all these ramped up production will have come to nought if PP prices starts to come down instead of rising.

Hard as it may, maybe the best thing for LCTITAN is to accelerate further its borrowings to complete faster its LINE project so that by the time it's ready for production, they can sell at rising rather than declining PP cycle prices.

However, speeding up the LINE project including accelerating borrowings further should further cause LCTITAN share price to fall, as market is already so fearful. Board and Management have already been super ambitious, why not even more DOUBLY, DOUBLY ambitious??? ;-)

LCTITAN competitor looking to expand should seriously consider buying LCTITAN share. LCTITAN spends RM4 billion cash to turn cash into asset where buying LCTITAN shares would be like buying these RM 4 billion assets at the price of 22 sen for every RM1 spent. No need to expand themselves - all of them should band in, just buy LCTITAN shares and when have enough, execute a breakup and own these assets at massive discounts. They should punish LCTITAN Board and senior management for being so ambitious and irresponsible - the best punishment is get rid of them!

Perhaps all the Buy Analysts are too junior and believe the 60:40 Debt:Equity promise.
- On paper, the Equity is huge. RM15.6 billion. (equivalent to RM5.25/share).
- On paper, 60:40 means they can borrow up to RM25 billion!!
- Current market cap is only RM2.6 billion.

If this company borrows RM25 billion with Debt / Market Cap of 10 times, will this company still be around or all its assets will have already been liquidated and go into PN17? How real is the equity of RM5.25/share when market is valuing these at RM1.15??? I would say practically impossible because noone has the cash, else, they would already be grabbing LCTITAN at RM1.15/share ...

In summary:
- No Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No Special Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No sign of bottoming to the Borrowings.
- Company needs to commit to borrow even more - maybe another RM5.5 billion.
- The entire Company's equity is not enough to back. Debt to Market Cap is ridiculously high.
- Feedstock naphtha is still on its way up and getting more costly to further create even bigger losses to come.
- Very likely to have further shareholder dilution.

What is keeping analysts from seeing these bad news over the coming 2-3 years?

For shareholders, the biggest worry is whether the company will start asking for rights issue in the coming 1-2 years. The capital needs is at least another RM5.5 billion for the LINE project and more. Already, the company is in net debt position. This is another RM2.50 equivalent of debt to be had. Current company price is RM1.15. Shareholders should grill the Board and Management whether or not they foresee rights issue in the next 3 years to dilute existing shareholder's share. Analysts should analyze this angle more and be more transparent in their next 3 year projections, if there's going to be further shareholder dilution. Then, recommend SELL clearly!

Such a sorry state of affairs. This company's NAV is around 5.25/shr, yet, the stock is trading only at RM1.15, and the company - that used to be flushed with cash, but now in debt, and expects the debt to keep rising - can't afford to do any share buyback, despite TREMENDOUS value .... Price/Book is only 0.22 ... basically every RM1 of asset in the company is only worth 22 sen ... including the RM4 billion recently spent to convert cash into asset. Such an extremely sorry state of affairs. The entire Board and Senior Management responsible for this sorry state of affairs should all be sacked.

The primary feedstock for LCTITAN's business is naphtha. Since July 2023, Naphtha prices has risen from a low of USD520/T to near USD700/T ... it'll be interesting to watch the Q3 report at the end of this Oct - the question is will Q3 losses be even bigger than Q2 loss?

From last AGM:

What is the anticipated dividend rate for FYE 2023?
The Company has a dividend policy of paying 50% of our profit. We will continue to meet that
requirement and pay the 50% dividend on profit. If the Company has sufficient cash like last year,
we will consider declaring special dividend to reward shareholders, subject to Board approval.

Commentary: Looks like in 2023, there won't be any dividends paid since:
1. Expected Net Profit is negative i.e. nil Dividends.
2. Net Cash is negative i.e. nil Special Dividends.

When will all analysts call for a Sell? Then, the bottom will come quicker.

Bottom may still not be in sight. Analyst recommendations: 1 Sell, 1 Hold, 2 Buys. When the 2 Buys become Hold/Sell, then, can safely go in and accumulate. Haha.

3 years ago, it's hard to believe that LCTITAN's Net Cash was worth RM1.69 (nearly RM4 billion).
Today, all that Net Cash is gone ... zero and negative once include borrowings. As a result, today's price is hovering near RM1.
This is a classic case of how ambitious management destroys wealth:
1. Net Cash alone is meaningless - the stockmarket is littered with examples where new ambitious management who inherited the Net Cash destroys all past hard work.
2. The problem with this company is that it doesn't share more regularly the previous Net Cash with shareholders.
3. The bigger problem is that management is not held accountable by shareholders - shareholders let management destorys wealth. Else, the CEO and the whole management team should already be sacked, but it's far too late for that now.

Had they not be so ambitious, this stock will still be trading 2-3 times higher than today..... and I wouldn't have bought a single share!!! Haha.

This stock is volatile. It dropped below RM1 before during Covid scare (Mar 2020). Then, it rallied 3.5 times to over RM3.50 in 12 months. And now, it's doing a "die slowly" drop for 2+ years ... still downtrending and trading below the 200dMA and the slope of the 200dMA is still down - it's trying to form a base. That base will take a long time to form. I'm still unsure if lower prices is a buy, as this company has taken on a lot of debt and what was previously excellent Balance Sheet has now turned messy. However, the business it's in is cyclical and as it so happens, current cycle is not so good. Utilization was 66%, management seems optimistic that this will rise to 70%-75% in the coming months, but nobody really knows the future. I feel I already have enough, so, likely there's nothing to do but to sit tight.

Market needs to be convinced that this company will grow its EPS before its price goes back up again. All that lawsuits were distractions. This company need to focus on growing its EPS. If it can't do this when times are good, it will gain a bad reputation.

"Under the Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER), the government has set an ambitious target of renewable energy providing 31 percent (13 gigawatts) of the nation’s energy needs by 2025 and 40 percent (18 gigawatts) by 2035. The Government has further committed to increase RE capacity to 70% in 2050, to be in line with the national climate aspiration of achieving net zero GHG earliest by 2050."

Malakoff all fired up on energy transition plan - see yesterday's news.

If we compare HLIND to say MAYBANK, clearly, one is more superior to dividend investor than the other. I have greater peace of mind and hold much larger in one than the other. The wierd thing is business wise, I like the other one better, only if he shares the wealth with shareholder.

Quek is a shrewd businessman, it's deep in his DNA to find ways to enrich himself further and Bursa rules doesn't apply to him.

Observatory, net cash, the PE is only 4+, and dividend yield at RM9 is 6%, so, for me, I'm happy to hold my 2% in this stock, put it in a drawer mentally,. and forget I even own this stock. My cost is well below RM9, if price drops below my cost, I'm happy to add but otherwise, not really much for me to do as it is a good boring stock. Clearly the TTM57 sen dividend is supportable for long term, I cannot imagine them cutting dividends, however, the only thing I can imagine is one day, either one time or several times, some of that cash holdings won't necessarily go to minority shareholders when it should be.

What happened with the recent "plunge" the past 1-2 weeks? Normal price action and part of the bottoming process. Having plunged so much from RM7, it tried to find a base at around RM6 in March and failed, then tried to find base at around RM5 from Mar to May and failed, didn't bother much with R4 and failed, and now tried to find base at RM3 for the past 2 months. It tries to rally but hit a resistance near the 20dMA twice and failing to recapture the resistance, needs to "plunge" down again the past few days. All these are normal price actions where there's really not much to do but just let market does what it does. As the 20dMA and 200dMA slope is still downtrending, the rebasing normally (more than 50% chance) will take a very long time - measured in several months minimum - and we'll probably know in Q4 or next year if the bottom is really RM3 or not. Given this is now coming to 2 months, and given the size of the fall, odds are increasing that RM3 could be the real bottom from a multi-month perspective i.e. investors around these prices will now start to be very interested in this stock. If you are an investor that waits patiently and let price comes to you at lower prices, this would be one of the stock to keep in the radar screen. I am not in full allocation yet because a part of me thinks there is a minority chance that it could go below RM3 sometime this year and if it does, I plan to add some more because I have a multi-year perspective.

I think there's a 50% chance that market may repeat what happened in 2000-2005. Basically Genting does nothing during this 5-6 year period, trading in a range. However, when it broke out above the trading range, due to the very long period of doing nothing, within 12 months or so, it more than doubled and nearly tripled.

For past 3 years (since 2020, after Covid scare) Genting has been trading in a range too. I think there's a chance that maybe within the next 1-3 years, Genting will break out and when it does, we may see a potential doubling.

However, I doubt there are many investors here who is this patient and can wait for several years ...

Still making lower highs past 3 years = distribution. Not accumulation yet. Don’t chase, let price comes to you.

With stocks on downtrend, no need to chase. Let price comes to you.

I queued to add more at 10.02 GTC for weeks. So far not yet filled.

Jnlee, I am not a professional nor qualified advisor, so I don’t give advice. However, I bought for my own account when it was 32.5, 33 and a little at 33.5 Sen.

Oh, in case if you have doubts, Quek never listens to shareholders. The proof is simple:
1. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see some of the Net Cash position rising from 200m to 1.6 billion over past 7-8 years declared as special dividend? Yes / No?
2. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see a dividend payout ratio that is higher than past 8 years like 80% instead of paltry amounts like 50% in some years. Yes / No?

I can bet you that if HLIND were to survey 1,000 of minority shareholders, nearly 1000 will say Yes to both questions.

But do you think HLIND cares about minority shareholder views? Ha ha ha

In case if you think that the cash cannot disappear, it is too easy for Quek to force HLIND to buy one of its own businesses at exhorbitant price, transfer the assets into HLIND and transfer the cash out of HLIND. Then, suddenly, that huge pile of RM1.6 billion disappear.

Because of this lack of trust, this stock price has stabilized around RM9 for a very, very long time. If HLIND really want to increase its share price to RM15, this can be done very easy, by just raising the dividends by 67% and the price will quickly go up.

Problem is someone has other plans for HLIND huge cash pile of RM1.6 billion and it won't go to HLIND shareholders.

This stock is really not about electric motorcycles or anything. It has a clearly superior business that generates huge amount of cash - just look at how it increases its cash pile by 8 times in 8 years. Its management is superior. It's business model is excellent.

The only problem is - when will shareholders gets their share of the cash?

Market has not overlooked HLIND for 7 years. It's giving a low value to HLIND not because of its poor business, but because HLIND doesn't share its net cash with shareholders, leaving the market to speculate that one day, shareholders will lose out on the Net Cash.

Here's a sample snapshot of HLIND Net Cash over past years:
3/2016 = 275m
3/2017 = 379m
3/2018 = 645m
3/2019 = 1041m
3/2020 = 1232m
3/2021 = 1580m
3/2022 = 1351m
3/2023 = 1636m

Market has lost patience with HLIND for generating so much profit and cash, but only giving lip service increase in dividends. And yes, historically, market trust on Quek is too low that Quek will share with shareholders. Hence, market is penalizing Quek because current cash is worth at least RM5, the business priced at 9-5 = RM4.
It's long term EPS is around 90 sen, which means the business is priced only at a PE of only 4+.


Is the business really poor? Of course not! This business generates so much cash.

So, where's the problem?

Simple. Market over the past decades doesn't trust Quek. The Net Cash grew from 200 million to 1,600 million and it is not even shared with shareholders - the dividends could have been so much larger than the lip service increment given.

The best thing analyst can do is draw this long term attention to the market. Push HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders. Else, market won't value this stock well.

It doesn't take much to increase the dividend yield from current 5.9% to say 10%. The business earnings yield is right now well over 22% or higher. This means raising dividends by another 67% higher. This won't even eat into the 1.6 billion net cash.

This is a classic situation where HLIND simply refuse to share its wealth with shareholders. No matter how great the business is, no matter how large the cash pile is, they continue to refuse to share.

I have around 2% of my portfolio in HLIND to earn a paltry 6%, when this business can easily reward shareholders twice as much without dipping into its cash.

The question is - who is going to force HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders?

Looks like it wants to challenge the 200dMA of 2.26 this week.

And look at the stock price over past 20 years. A clear trading range emerges. The low floor is around 80-90 sen. The high ceiling is around RM2. Anytime any analyst tells your their target price is higher than RM2, you can ignore and laugh. Anytime analyst tell you to sell below RM1, you can ignore and accumulate. The 20 year price action is the KING that guides you on when to buy and when to sell, because the underlying business of this counter, the industry it's in, is cyclical.

And this counter always reward shareholders. Always pay 40% 2 quarter earnings. In bad times, it dips into its cash chest and floors negative earnings. I think 40% is a bit too low, it could easily raise this to 50% and when it does this one day, the stock will re-rate upwards. Still with its business generating 20% long term earnings yield, I am not complaining.

Analysts tend to be too short term - if you follow their call, you'll be doing the opposite of what you should be doing. If you look at say Public Bank analyst call, when price is high, they tell you to buy, and when price is lower, they tell you to hold. This doesn't make sense if the business is sound fundamentally and management reward shareholders consistently. In this type of rare stocks, you do better buying low and selling high.

I believe an opportunity to collect is coming again. Q3/23 EPS of -0.01 is disappointing to dividend investors. If Q4/23 EPS is say 2-3 sen, dividend will only be 0.8-1.2 sen which will disappoint many investors. That's the time to queue to buy at low price.

This stock is great to accumulate at low price because of its Net Cash position. Valuation is very undemanding at 0.6 x P/B (including cash; excluding cash even smaller). It is also undemaning from PE perspective, with nearly 57 sen in cash i.e. business sold at say 1.37-0.57 = 0.80. It's long term EPS (say average 8 years) is at least 16 sen, suggesting if you are prepared to own this business for 8 years and get 16 sen, it's PE is only 5 i.e. long term earnings yield of 20% and long term dividend yield of 8%.

However, market is fickled and along the way, will push this counter price up much higher and push it down much higher, giving rise to trading.

This is a counter where if one believes in its fundamental business, a low price is time to accumulate and hold and sell when the counter price rises.

However, around this time, the charts are showing higher than normal risk, as it fails to recapture the uptrend line i.e. more than 50% chance, more downtrend to come.

However, as I bought low and I'm a long term investor, lower price to me is just good reason to accumulate more.

28/7 share buyback 1.12-1.15.
27/7 share buyback 1.09-1.13
Ah Beng bought 21-24/7. Wa lau ... like this also can ahh?
I own a small speculative price position at 1.04. (This is not for dividend but price speculative). Will be looking to sell near the next resistance.

For long term investment, this has been a great uptrending stock for 2 decades, but I'm more pessimistic over next decade, as politics becomes more extreme. I would need a low price to get into this stock, with a forward looking dividend yield of at least 5%. Last year's dividend of 138 sen was a record, but historically, when it makes record, the following year dividend dips down. I suspect we'll see 2023 dividend to be lower. If I take the average of the 3 highest ever dividend in last 8 years, that works out to be an average of 116 sen. Applying 5% dividend yield gives me an entry price of RM23.2. It's now trading at RM26.5.

The odds of me entering at RM23-24 is low, maybe less than 20% chance. Price needs to drop a lot, like 62% retracement from the massive 2020 Covid range.

But low price to me is a valid reason to enter in a stock like this one. Just wait for a crisis.

CARLSBG is shareholder friendly - over past 8 years, it pays nearly 100% of its earnings to shareholders as dividends. Some years lower than earnings, some years higher, on average, around 100%. I like this type of shareholder who pays 80%+ of its earnings back to shareholders.

However, CARLSBG problem, as everyone noted above, is its earnings. 2022 looked like turning around, but 2023/Q1 has dipped slightly below 2022/Q1, causing investors to be wary if they've seen the peak in CARLSBG earnings. Last year, we saw 88 sen dividend, if there's a dip, I think we could be looking at 80-84 sen dividend this year.

Typically, I like my dividend yield at a minimum of 5%, but for this quality stock, 4.5% may be acceptable. At 82 sen dividend, my buy price will be around RM18.22, around Feb 2020 low. Probably less than 20% chance of happening.

Still, this stock is in my radar screen. A low price is a good reason to get into this stock.

This kind of long term stock price chart is suitable for long term dividend holding. Much higher dividend yield than BESHOM and looks much much better too.