@newbie9893 - the answer to your question 5 days ago is ... "4 trading days ago" ... a day after your question. Great predictive question!

PS. My average cost for MALAKOF is 59.8 sen. It was in my Top 15% largest holdings.

With RHB Invest giving trading advice and saying Resistance is 68 sen and 70 sen, what more can I say ... the price now have majority chance of exceeding 70 sen! 😂. If RHB Invest stayed quiet, I would have said minority chance! IB wants you to sell ... so ... SELL! 😂

@BudiLee, the stocks with the highest dividend yields like BAT doesn't actually give decent total returns, compared to MAYBANK.

Consider past 5 years. BAT price lost 75%, MAYBANK price lost 1.8%. However MAYBANK Total Return is very decent, still beating EPF rate, due to consistent Dividend Yield. Whereas BAT Total Returns, after its "higher dividends" is still an astounding massive loss!

I have observed that when the Dividend Yield is too high, the stock Total Returns are actually not that great - often it is negative because the Price loss offsets the dividends. Get 9% dividend but lost 18% in Price.

Whereas mid dividend stocks like APOLLO, gives safe, nice, excellent Total Returns with good dividend yields too. Over past 5 years, Price gains is around 24% and coupled with solid 5% dividend yield per annum gives returns that easily beat EPF consistently.

These stocks mentioned are not necessarily Buys today, but they are good to buy when price is depressed, when nobody wants them.

Thank-you TALIWRK! On 20/10, I added at 79 sen. Today, my queue to sell part of this purchase was executed at 86 sen! THANK-YOU for contributing to make my portfolio hit a new high again today! That's 4 consecutive days of portfolio new high!

Thank you HUPSENG! For making my portfolio new high again today. That's 4 consecutive days of New Portfolio Highs! What an amazing week!

@Lester, agree the transaction volume is very high, although this kind of action reminds me of 18/12/2020 volume/price action than Jan 22 volume/price action. In Dec 2020 action, the huge spike up was not sustainable and only good for 1 day. Whereas Jan 2022 action was high, but the price was already uptrending for quite some time and continued to make new highs higher than the day's high eventually. The question now is how does today's high volume portend for the coming days/weeks ....

Technically, it looks with majority odds, that the bottom after 1.5 years of downtrend may have been sighted. Today's price action hit 86 sen, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a common resistance. Given the 1.5 years downtrend, it won't be so easy for TALIWRK to continue to rise - low odds. More likely, it'll dip down to retest the bottom. So, if I didn't have a position, then, I would not chase and the high probability play is to wait for a retest and buy the dip.

Thanks to TALIWRK, my portfolio made a new high again today. That's 3 consecutive days of new highs!

@SinGor, Vuse is mentioned 3 times in Q3 quarterly report. Sales started in Q3 as disclosed there.

In Section B7, it is stated: " Profit from operations reported an increase of 16.6% from RM73 million to RM85 million mainly as a result of lower operating expenses due primarily to reduced vapour product launch investments in the current period compared to the second quarter."

In other words, in Q3, they spend less to promote Vuse. What will happen to sales of Vuse when they spend less to promote?

@donator - BAT will be around for much longer than 10 years IMHO - easily 15 years. However, based on past trends, its EPS and DPS looks like it will keep shrinking and shrinking and shrinking and meanwhile, its price will keep shrinking in line too.

@williamh, I think next quarter earnings will be around 16-18 sen, suggesting dividend to be around 15-17 sen. If this year's total dividend is 62 sen, that's a solid business result, but will be disappointing because prior years dividends are:

2023 - 62-64 sen?
2022 - 88 sen
2021 - 98 sen
2020 - 83 sen
2019 - 118 sen
2018 - 156 sen
2017 - 169 sen
2016 - 232 sen
2015 - 312 sen.

The huge and persistent downtrend in dividend is unmistakeable. BAT pays out 96% of its EPS, so, its dividends is highly tied to its EPS which is also declining.

My position is small. My total LCTITAN holdings by market value is only 3.6% of my total equity portfolio (excluding cash). Waiting for lower prices like 1.0x to nibble and so on until it is around 5% of my total equity portfolio ...

I nibble a little at 1.11, because it's NTA is 5.23. That's like paying 21 sen, for every RM1 equity. Clearly, market is extremely fearful. But it's downtrend is not yet over. Most Book Value plays don't work out (in that it can stay undervalued for a long time) but all you need is 1 that works out to and give you nice triple digit % returns. I don't know if LCTITAN will work out or not, but I place my chips across a number and see ...

I added LCTITAN @ 1.11 3 trading days ago. It's trying to do a technical rebound, but a betting man would say that this rebound will fail, just like every other dozens of rebounds since that minor peak in May 2021 near 3.5x.

Fundamentally, LCTITAN is attractive on book value, but terrible on earnings due to its business cycle and ambitious over-expansion. The Book Value investors may want to start nibbling a little - we'll never be able to buy at the bottom and if you wait for good results, you'll never be able to get near bottom because by the time it publishes good results, the price will have recovered significantly.

To me, the goal is to nibble around half on the way down and around half on the way up ... something like that.

This stock has no guarantee though that it will rise anytime soon. I still nibble nevertheless precisely because I don't know the future.

Fwiw, my portfolio made new record high again today.

I took the opportunity to exit my entire position in ZHULIAN at 1.9.
I didn't make much money on price - the gains barely covers commissions.
I made money via dividends. After subtracting all expenses, I made around 4.1% per annum returns from ZHULIAN, which beats FD, but didn't beat EPF.
I didn't feel comfortable to continue owning ZHULIAN, relative to so many good investments out there to own when their prices are depressed. Hence, taking the opportunity to sell my small holdings in ZHULIAN to raise cash as my cash is too small as so many good investments when prices were lower this year. Thank-ful, I didn't lose monies in ZHULIAN. The business is better to avoid.

If you are a trader, you'll find PBBANK stock price movement boring ... but boring attracts very serious long term investors interested in long term wealth accumulation. They don't look at 1 or 2 or 3 year returns but much longer than that. Typically, only 1% (very small minority) of investors would find this attractive, and they make huge long term wealth accumulation. Most "investors" are not real investors.

It's TTM dividend yield,at 4.25 price, is around 4.2%, which if compare against FD rates, is extremely good, because you own a business long term that is bound to make new EPS high. So, if you own lots of FD, good to diversify some into PBBANK. Because to me, PBBANK as an investment, on a forward looking basis (not historical basis - historically, it is clearly so much better) is still just so much better than FD ... period.

@BlackDiamond, I agree odds are very high, it will eventually hit 4.70 ... usually, just a matter of time.
However, it needs to prove it can go past 4.30 and stay above there after retesting.
If not, we may see price falling back down to 4 or below, depending on market sentiment too. The odds of this happening is a minority, but not impossible.
In general, I won't chase, however, if PBBANK falls, then, it's a stock that warrants very serious consideration to add on price weakness because this stock has a proven history and culture of eventually surpassing its previous EPS high ... this is in its DNA, even without its founder.

The investor of today unfortunately cannot profit from profits of yesterday.
However, PBBANK is still showing signs of earnings growth, notwitstanding the passing of its founder.
I own some, but agree it's still worth accumulating on dips.
I'm waiting for the second interim dividend.
Usually (not always) this is announced in Feb, but last year was announced in Dec, so, I look forward to this announcement.
Sometimes, one gets a chance to accumulate on the cheap, more than the fall in dividend, after it goes ex-div.
If an opportunity arise, we may be able to accumulate more.
Longer term, if it keeps growing its earnings, any price we buy now will be cheap a few years later.
Owners must be willing to accept slow and steady growth, as this is now the 2nd largest stock in Bursa - it can't run like a small bank anymore.

FWIW, my portfolio made new high again today. Very nice to see this happening.

Technicians will tell you that the fake breakdown in May-July below 2.1 and subsequent recovery means that the resistance at 2.4 will break on the upside, maybe above 2.5. However, I am happy with 14% return for this boring stock over 8 months, so, I decided to exit with a high probability profit, build cash and wait for the next drop in numerous other stocks.

I sold all at 2.38. Bought 8 months ago at 2.15. Collected dividends. Total returns in 8 months including dividends, net of all expenses is 14%. Solid returns. I decided to let all of it go because there are better stocks out there and so decide to take profits at swing high and move on.

If BAT doesn't go above 9.83 in next 2 weeks, we will definitely see lower low than 9.14 in the next 2 months.

dejavu. 9.83 is now new resistance.

Having said that, don't chase. I am selling into strength. It is overbought. High chance after topping, price will drop significantly, before resuming .... 😉

HAPSENG new high again since this year's low at 3.03! IMHO, 5.75 is a magnet (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, previous swing low) and a potential resistance zone. It may take days or weeks, it may fall before it rises / or keep rising, but very high odds it'll get there ...

FPI 2.86. Nice. My average cost is 2.52. Queue to sell some (on GTC order, and forget) some at around RM3 resistance.

The other thing is I assumed 3 years recovery. Sometimes, it stretches to 4 years, or 5 years, or 6 years ... the timing is also decided by Mr Market and not me. So, it has to be with long term monies like EPF type monies that you don't plan to spend.

So, I do this for only a very small number of selected stocks - it must be companies that I would be happy to own in its entirity meaning on current market cap of say 1.45 billion, if I have that much money, I would like to own this company in its entirity i.e. the lower market price falls, I will keep accumulating.

However, there are not that many companies in Bursa like this quality.

Drilling down to weekly charts over past 5 years, you get a better sense of how low a stock could go. On Monthly chart, I thought RM3 was strong support, but on weekly chart, it's RM3.03 - so, you fine tune. But I still think a minority (45%) chance to hit RM3.03.

Drilling down to daily charts over past year, you see some minor supports around 3.18-3.20, so, this one has 49/51 chance of getting hit I think. It's a coin toss for me, I got no clue whether it'll go down that low but it feels like 49/51 chance? If it gets there, I'll add a little bit, as my holding is still small.

The above numbers are concepts only - in reality, I will average down on this stock, so, if price hits RM3, my cost is higher than RM3, say RM3.1, and if price hits RM2.5, my cost will probably be around RM2.8 (?), and if price goes down to RM2, my cost may be around RM 2.5 (?), so, when price goes back up, the gains are not as large, but at the same time, when price are low, the dividend yield is higher than 6%, so, there are some partial offsets. But at the bottom, my holding will never be greater than 5% of my stock portfolio (occasionally 6%) so that if this stock goes bust, I can still recover.

At the current environment, what is interesting is how low will TAANN get over next 12 months.
Starting from Monthly charts (looking at past 23+ years), the obvious target is around RM3. I think there's 45% chance to hit RM3, 55% chance it won't hit that level, and if it hits RM3, the next 3 year payout is around 33% price gain + 6% dividend yield p.a., so, say 11%+6%~ 17% 12 month returns.
Next major support is around RM2.50. Harder to imagine getting hit here, maybe 20% chance? 80% chance it won't touch. But if it hits there, my position will be bigger and if it gets back to RM4 in say 3 years, my yearly gain is larger ~ 17%+6% ~ 23% p.a. returns over 3 years.
As for RM2, I think extremely unlikely in next 12 months. I give it only less than 5% chance, 95% chance won't happen. But if it happens and gets back to RM4 in 3 years time, the returns ~ 26%+6% = 32% p.a. returns over years

These are just rough concepts in my head, how I think about stock market investing. I am a firm believer that Market decides how much returns I get and not solely on me. Market decides 80%, me only 20%.

TAANN looks like a decent company to own in its entirity, as part of a long term diversified portfolio. I like it for many reasons, some already mentioned here. However, it is cyclical in that its earnings depends on CPO prices as you can see from its historical stock price the past 2 decades - on 1/1/2000, the stock open at 2.75 and today it is 3.27 and after 23 years, a gain of 52 sen is not the kind of stock that Warren Buffett would buy and hold forever.

It is clear that during good times, this stock price can soar - like 2007, 2012, 2016 and 2022. The prices can be as high as RM4+ to RM6+ peak.

During bad times, this stock can tank - like 2001, 2003, 2009, 2018, 2020 ... hard to define the bottom, but this is when price is say RM2 or below.

So, this stock is for trading. How much profits you make depends on Mr Market. If price goes down to RM2 or lower, then, this is great time to make a killing ... if price only drops a little down to RM3, then, profit is smaller.

Like this recent buy/sell @ 3.28/3.66 a minor one, with small profits, small position.
Nevertheless, I keep an interest in this stock by holding a small position for now, waiting for the time when Mr Market is highly pessimistic to add, and sell when Mr Market is highly optimistic.

Ironically, IB is likely to recommend the opposite - they will tell you to buy when price is high and rising (but near peak typically) and then tell you to sell when price has dropped with losses (and typically, it's more than halfway near bottom already).

For a great company like this, let price guides you when to buy and when to sell.

Thanks to Mr Market, I picked up TAANN at 3.28 average, to cover what I previously sold at 3.66. Basically paid myself 38 sen "dividend" or 0.38/3.28 = 11.6% yield for just a couple of months.

In case you're wondering what happened to the huge drop in Net Cash at FYE2021, I note that its Inventory rose from 93m to 127m. But a year later, inventory drop from 127m to 84m, boosting its cash balances substantially. So, this company requires one to hold at least a 2 year view. So, things will be worse in the coming months, but if you have a long term view and trust its management to boost business value, eventually, odds are good you'll be alright. However, not many investors are really that patient as returns will get worse first, AND, when it recovers is UNCERTAIN.

Disclaimer: Some of my figures mentioned might have some minor typo errors, so, do your own diligence, if you are worried about figures that are more accurate. However, the big picture conclusions (based on 1 or 2 significant figures) should remain unchanged. Buffett always say - the best investment thesis should jump out to you. This one doesn't, but its safety jumps up to me as there's massive margin of safety. Still, I would keep this stock as a small % of my portfolio, probably not larger than 4% ever.

So, in summary, I don't like this stock for 3 reasons:
1. I expect 2023FYE to report a low EPS, possibly record low EPS - it's going to cause a lot of people to feel pessimistic.
2. Volatile Net cash - typo, 2020 Net Cash is 182m. So, 2021, its Net Cash dropped quite a lot, from 182m down to 146m. Hence Net cash is not enough reason to invest, as Net Cash can drop.
3. Perpetually conservative company. Waiting for the company to become more realistic might never happen, hence, not good enough reason. Need catalysts to unlock this. The MSWG is still not asking the right questions, allowing Management to get away with being ultra conservative.

Personally, I would not rush in to collect, because I think this year's EPS will look bad, potentially showing its worst EPS. So, looking forward to next 6 months, I think there's good chance for price to drop, hence, I would layer my entry if I didn't have any exposure. Just add at successively lower price. Simple investment thesis.

Here's a history of POHUAT Net Cash:
2015: 37m
2016: 43m
2017: 71m
2018: 71m
2019: 120m
2020: 199m
2021: 146m
2022: 249m
2023Q3: 288m.

IB can suppress price as much as they like, but eventually, that Net Cash is going to keep growing i.e. the yearly dividend of 5-8 sen should be extremely safe in the longer term.

The furniture business (home and office) is a solid one. They make money every year. Mr Market has been sleeping but one day, it's going to wake up. Even if it continues to sleep for next 5 years, we get FD+ returns and if 8 sen dividend, EPF returns and the downside is extremely limited long term, but the upside, despite Mr market tendency to sleep for years, will one day wake up and reward us with higher returns.

IB like Public bank doesn't know how to value POHUAT. In March 23, its TP is 1.50. In June 23, it lowered its TP to 1.16, which is just silly, when Net cash+ST investment holding is worth 1.04. Nevertheless, thanks to IB, we are able to collect POHUAT on the cheap, where its investment thesis is a bit better than "FD+". Short term, POHUAT returns should be lower than EPF, but in the medium term, one day, the stock price should rise and give better returns than EPF over the next 3-5 years. Currently, stock unlike to rise fast, because: (1) Management is ultra conservative with its dividend policy and the way it runs its business, prefering to conserve cash, despite cash growing to record levels, and (2) Management anticipates soft market for its revenue in medium term (which is likely to be conservative). So, if you have extra funds (like my portfolio profits) to park at rates better than FD, then, POHUAT is a safe choice. Long term dividend is probably around 7-8 sen, so, at 7 sen, the annual Dividend Yield is solid 5.3%. Even at 1.33 current price, it is still an "Accumulate" in my book if one doesn't have an exposure, but must have 5 year out look at the least to earn higher than 5.3%. Short term like FYE2023, I think POHUAT will show the lowest earnings in past 8 years and so, DPS may drop to say 5 sen, hence, short term I think we will see a very conservative Dividend Yield by Management notwitstanding record level Net Cash, but should still beat FD rates.

Is it planning to revisit 3.19/3.20 swing lows? 🤔

Market has been distributing TAANN since July peak.

@speakup, given recent breakout, some momentum traders might be buying as it appears to be on the uptrend since June lows. Personally, as I am overweighted, I am not buying. In fact, I'll be looking to sell some ~ 10% holdings on strength to these momentum buyers at various points on the way up 😂. I am prudently expecting this year's dividend to be at least 13.5 sen (LY 13.8 sen), which is giving me a Dividend yield on cost of 7.4%. My goal is to hit around Dividend Yield on cost of 10% at average long term portfolio weighting and then I can forget.

Thanks to UOADEV (and LIIHEN and 12 other stocks in green for me today), my portfolio made a NEW HIGH today. This week is the 2nd time, yesterday was a NEW HIGH then and today edges up a bit higher. Thank-you Mr Market.

Happy to have accumulated GENTING at 4.16, 4.12 and 4.07. This stock is worth buying on oversold / on the dip.

Happy to have accumulated GENM at 2.45 this week with expected Dividend Yield > 6%. What's not to like?

@sheldon, APOLLO is a stock to buy when it is cheap / oversold, and sell when it is expensive / overbought. I have made small sells on strength, to lower my Average Cost down to 2.93, where if future yearly dividend = 25 sen, my Dividend Yield on cost is 8.5%. 25 sen is conservative, 35 sen more realistic giving yield on cost of 11.9%. Over the next 3-5 years, I am actually looking forward for the stock price to fall back down so that I can buy back cheaply again. For now, it's just enjoying the ride up.

APOLLO and HAPSENG both helped made my portfolio NEW HIGH today! Thank-you APOLLO!

20 sen, ex div 18 Oct, to pay on 3 Nov

Thank-you HAPSENG for making my portfolio a NEW HIGH again!

2.24 ... Nice! I have been overweighted this stock with an average entry price of 1.86.