I sold off all my GAMUDA at RM4. Made over 21% in less than a year. This Dividend Yield is 3%, so, the short gain is worth 7 years of dividends. I think, good odds that in next 7 years, price will go below RM4, so, on significant dips, I will come back in again if the business model doesn't break. I am a dividend investor with at least a 5 year future outlook.

I think, over next 5 years, the total dividend paid could look something like at least 50 sen. if so, that averages 10 sen annually over each year. So, a very prudent estimate of the average yearly dividend, over next 5 years, could be say 7 sen (the lowest it paid in 2020). 7 sen / 1.35 ~ 5%. Meaning if you buy at 1.35 and put it in a drawer and forget about this stock over the next 5 years, it is very good odds that not only will the company still be around, but probably have huge assets bigger than today. And to wait, you get paid on average 5% per year dividends in a very LUMPY fashion (i.e. 2023-2024 dividends could be zero, but 2025 could be something, 2026-2027 could be very large).

So, you must ignore price volatility in next 2 years, use weakness to prudently add, and don't measure your performance until after 2027.

The Company is not a regular Dividend Payor. It's history since 2017 is either zero dividend, 1 payment or at most 2 payments. The dividend paid (if I get this correct) since 2017 is:
2017 - zero
2018 - 23 sen (1 payment)
2019 - 17 sen (1 payment)
2020 - 7 sen (1 payment)
2021 - 21 sen (2 payments)
2022 - 21 sen (1 payment)
2023 - ???
2024 - ???
2025 - ???
2026 - ???
2027 - ???

To own this stock as a dividend owner, you have to look over the next 5 years because by 2025, hopefully, the assets they invested in will become productive and generate dividends bigger than 21 sen one day ... so, this one have to be super patient.

So, this stock price is still strongly downtrending and the past 2 weeks is just temporary support. We can't predict what price will do in the future, but if it breaks support, DO NOTHING until price shows us new support. Don't catch a falling knife. But if break support and stabilize to new support level, I will average down again there.

You can look at this company in several ways: (1) The Company's published Net Asset at 30/6 is 5.59. At 1.35, that is equal to 24 sen for every RM1. (2) At 1.35, the Company Market Value is RM3.1 billion. At 30/6, its Net Cash and Other Investment is worth RM3.2 billion i.e. all other assets in the company is effectively worth nil. (3) Its Net Cash and Other Investment is worth more than 1.35. Basically the remaining Net Asset (net of all liabilities) = 5.59 - 1.35 = 4.24 or roughly worth RM9.8 billion is valued by the market as ZERO. That's how much Margin of Safety there is in this stock. If this company gets liquidated, I think good odds total value receive from liquidating RM9.8 billion is worth a lot more than ZERO.

I have averaged down at $1.3x. The past 2 weeks, it seems to have stabilized after huge downfall from $1.9. Fundamentally, $1.3x is equal to its entire Net Cash position, meaning every other Net asset of the company is currently valued as zero. This usually means market is feeling extremely fearful. Notwitstanding, we already know its Net Cash will rapidly decline, as Company will convert Cash into Physical Assets, for its LINE project. If market keeps looking at Net Cash and putting Zero Value on all of its other assets, then, as Distressed Investor, I will keep buying at low prices because its other assets are not worth zero - it's worth something. If I take 100m and buy assets, the recent asset I bought should still be worth something close to 100m, not zero.

After its Q3/2022 quarterly report showing YTD Operating Cashflow of only 16m, market sentiment has changed and now becomes fearful, so, I think we may have seen a peak, unless next quarterly report can show substantially higher Operating Cashflow. Zhu Lian's yearly dividend payment cost is around 78m, to maintain its high dividend. If you linearly extrapolate 16m to full year, that is only 22m so, it will have to dip into its Net Cash chest. If you look at its Net Cash recently, it continues to decline as it dips into its Net Cash. So, you have to be confident that Zhu Lian can stop its Net Cash from declining, else, soon, it will have to cut its high dividends as it is not sustainable to keep paying 78m in dividends every year when operating cash inflow is much smaller. I suspect this stock can keep falling before it gets better, unless somebody knows that its underlying business will turn around. It's not fully without risk. Looking at its business, 37% revenues from Food and Beverages, 26% Health Nutritionals, 18% Personal Care, 10% jewelry, 9% others. The Covid pandemic has hurt its business, some temporary, some permanent because of consumer shifts to online purchasing. 70% of its revenue is exported to Thailand. So, hard to get an edge here and most players look at the Operating Cashflow as proof of a turnaround. The comparable number of this year's 16m is last year's >100m Operating Cashflow, so, that's a big big drop from last year. Even net of cash, based on last year's earnings, the business is priced at a P/E of 15 at RM1.91, meaning if this doesn't grow, then, it's rather expensive. I think this is why market doesn't know and price has been sideways range for 18 months. I like to think the next direction is up as Operating Cash of 16m is already so low, but who knows ... if that number keeps staying low, price can fall. Because of the uncertainty, a dividend investor's protection is to keep the total ownership of Zhulian to a small % of its portfolio, so that poor returns will not significantly impact one's dividend's portfolio.

CLMT acquired Sg Wang Plaza for 724m, which they duly write down to 442m at end last year. It's their biggest loss, but this is now history. Nevertheless, investors are still worried. The new CEO need to seriously consider selling off Sg Wang Plaza at fire sale price - if they get 300m for this, it's a great win and a huge cash injection which they can use to pay off the 1.4 billion debt and this will unlock CLMT value and price will skyrocket. Question is - at this market, who wants to pay 300m for Sg Wang? Smart of management to get management expenses as extra units when price is low - at the right time, they can take action as and when they see fit to unlock value.

Whilst AXREIT is HLInvest top pick (and it's a well managed REIT), bear in mind 3 risks: 1. Its gearing ratio is rising rapidly, due to large acquisitions this year - whilst necessary to grow future revenue, it comes with higher risks. 2. With so many properties at 100% occupancy, future growth is limited, and more downside risks than upside risk. 3. With current price at 1.86 being higher than NAV of 1.55, this is +20% premium to Net Asset Value to reflect future growth prospects. If the future disappoints then, price falls. AXREIT is 2% of my portfolio, but I don't think I want to add to it yet until price falls near its NAV but unlikely to happen unless there is some crisis/huge disappointment.

A distressed investor, banking on future recoveries, have to be very patient (many years), willing to accept continued dividend cuts. As to when a catalyst can occur to cause a re-rating, this is hard to see. I would like to see stronger management decisions, e.g. sell some properties to reduce borrowings then this cash will propel the stock price but question is - when is management going to do this and can they realize their worse properties? Who is going to buy at this market?

It's main property is Vista Tower office building, recently revalued to RM523m, worth 37% of its REIT assets. The gross rental income (before expenses, before interest) have gone down a lot from 40m, 33m, 27m (2019-2021), with around 53% (?) occupancy in highly competitive KL office space where average occupancy is higher than 53%. The big question mark is can its gross rental income rise back to pre-pandemic levels and how many years will that take (if it can)? Or have we gone to a new norm. Management needs to be ruthless - the main drag is RM650m plus borrowings with large Financing costs. Having huge asset values at surplus is meaningless if rental income doesn't come in but having to keep paying interest on loans. It needs to sell some buildings to realize its values, pay off the loans and suddenly, this will unlock a lot of monies and this stock price can then rise again. The question is - can management realize the market values at a sale around this time? Or are the "market values" noted in the books not real today but assumes reversion? Hence the huge discount to Net Asset Values. For minor properties like the Alor Setar ex-Holiday Villa that is only worth RM26m and zero occupancy, better to just sell that off - even if collect less than 26m, at least the occupancy rates for the whole REIT looks better on paper. I suspect the reason they are not selling is because they might not even get 20m and if true, then, that would set a bad precedence for the rest of the properties in their books that needs to be marked down.

Right now, market seems worried about upcoming Sep report, someone already knew the results and dumping. Quite a few concerns with this counter: 1. Further decline in revenues (risky)? 2. Rising interest rates causing higher interest payment? 3. As it is, YTD Jun report showed Operating Cashflows not quite meet Dividends and Interest payments. So, if YTD Sep report shows lower revenues, then, more likely next year's Dividends may be lower than 2022. 4. Asset revaluation risks? (good buffer on paper, but unknown).

This looks like a good punt, as part of a diversified portfolio for the longer term, patient dividend investor. Valuation is undemanding near 80 sen. Net cash. Good dividend yield, ranging 5%-6% or more potentially at this price and probably good over next 5-10 years plus possible price doubling over this period.

As a dividend investor, I like the Group decided to give a token 1 sen dividend when it is making losses. The Group has a policy of paying 30% of its Profit After Tax as dividends, so, this company needs to turn around into profits first, before the stock price fall stabilizes. Pretty sure market is watching closely since it's been nearly 2 years now ... the question is will it turn around? What catalysts? And when? because at a low base price, a turnaround will give 100% price gains.

The Net Cash is not in doubt. Stock price hit peak in 2017 when dividends was also high at 7.7 sen that year paid 4 times a year. Since then, stock price fell in line with dividend drops, from 7.7 down to 1.25 last year when it was paid twice only, and this year, so far 1 time for 1 sen and unclear. Clearly company is conserving monies due to recent losses, so, this company can also lose monies which they need to turnaround. Otherwise, net cash will also go down, dividend goes down, stock price goes down. Nice to see stock price is downtrending, for those with cash and holding power for several years (e.g. 5-10 years) this one deserves to be a part of one's diversified portfolio. 1 sen / 36 sen < 3% dividend yield which is not that attractive relative to FD, but if they want to stabilize the price fall, then, just give another 0.5 sen dividend yield and suddenly, it's a lot better than FD rates and company has much, much more cash to pay 0.5 sen dividend ... the question is will it do so? Next price fall target could be near 30 sen, at this price, I will definitely add more. For long term accumulators, this one is worth the risk, betting that company will turn profitable again, like it has many years prior. Risky for sure, but sleep soundly when it's part of a diversified portfolio.

In a diversified portfolio of <40 stocks, this one gets in at under 2.5% of my portfolio.

That's the daughter of the retired CEO, just recently took over mid this year. She's been with the Company for many years. Some investors like it, others not so. Like their competitors, company's in Net Cash equal to more than 4 year's earnings, business nicely profitable, conservative dividend payouts. EPF already own a lot of this company, and buying from other sellers, I think at this price level, it's decent chance, next 5-10 years, I'll double my money. At prudent 4.5 sen dividend, that's 3.8% dividend yield which is not great, but if supplement with 7% price gain (e.g. doubling in 10 years), that's a nice 10% p.a. over 10 year gains which is nothing to scoff at.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-28030712.

I will never take up smoking but I respect consumer rights to choose whether to take up smoking. The Tobacco and Smoking Control Bill removes consumer rights to choose, which is very dangerous. Sure, smoking increases mortality rate but many things increase mortality rates.

For example, Malaysians are also amongst the most obese nation in the world, with huge health strain on the health sector. Should there be a bill to force everyone born after 2007 to exercise at least 30 minutes every day and watch their diet? I love to exercise 30 mins 3-4 days a week and I love to watch my diet, but having such a Bill to force every Malaysian is wrong.

Bills like this which is unconstitutional and ignores consumer rights to choose, should be condemned and removed. It is just plain wrong.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2022/10/836470/give-more-time-pssc-review-tobacco-and-smoking-control-bill-urge-cmtm.

The Tobacco and Smoking Control Bill 2022 should be thrown out. Besides constitutional and consumer rights issues, prohibiting entire future generation from smoking will just push cigarette sale underground, with government losing massive tax revenues. This Bill scares the Market to stay away from tobacco companies like BAT, and buying BAT today is betting that this Bill will fail. To me, it's worth the risk, so, I added BAT at RM10.2 to be below 6% of my stock portfolio.

YTL price has been falling for 10 years from RM2+ down to 50-58 sen. Valuation is not demanding. Dividend yield is higher than FD rates. I am thinking of getting in at this multi-year low price to hold for next 5-10 years. Looks like very good chance to come up ahead than FD rates next 5-10 years.

Next quarter likely to be bad. Soonest turnaround MAYBE next year. This one can keep making new lows for many more months. No accumulation in sight yet.

Given the large loss, plus Indonesia commitment, they will stop paying dividends this year and likely next year too. Dividend investors may have to wait for a long time. Past dividends is not a good indicator of future dividends anymore.

I like this stock for its high dividend yield. I wonder what other bad news might be coming to lower its price?

Beware company’s negative earnings. If it doesn’t turnaround soon and if it keeps losing monies, then this stock can tank further. Don’t catch a falling knife.

The company cash position has changed badly. After earmarking for substantial spending in LINE project, remaining cash will drop to RM0.9 billion. With negative earnings, the high dividends may be suspended. For dividend investors like me, this is very bad news. Today 1.9 was a support (despite intraday breach), but downtrend is unmistakeable. The hope is the company investing in its business will one day generate larger profits but risks are high. Holding and forgetting.