As long term investor, one of my favorite indicators is the RSI indicator when applied to monthly candlesticks. I use free Yahoo Finance chart, where BIMB stock price starts from Jan 2000, 23 years ago. During this 23 year period, there are 3 times in history when RSI is below 20.
- First time is around Apr-May 2001. If you start entering then and average down, you are near multi-month lows (you'll never know when is the low). Be patient and in less than a year, you are laughing. The gains are phenomenal.
- Second time is around Apr 2005. Here, if you bought, you would be stuck for 8 months until Dec 2005, when RSI is oversold again. But if you keep averaging down (and only invest less than 5% of your diversified portfolio), your average price should be around 0.94+0.75 say 0.85-0.90 (as you wouldn't keep buying more at lower prices too much in a diversified portfolio), and come July 2006 (around 1.5 years later after your first entry), you would be laughing!
- Third time is around Mar 2020. If you had bought, a few months later, you would be laughing.
- Now we are at 4th time. RSI is 18 at I write this. If history is a guide, within next 1-2 years, we should be laughing. But only if you have staying power, and only if you are not greedy and go "all in".

And I like its payout ratio is below 40% past 8 years. Means:
1. It makes money. E.g. last TTM is 23 sen. (so, 1.73 / 0.23 = 7.5 TTM P/E is not very demanding valuation).
2. It shares around 13.8 sen dividend last year (so, payout ratio = 13.8 / 23 ~ 60% which is not a bad sharing with shareholders).
3. It pays dividends once a year (which is acceptable to me, as I own a diversified dividend stocks and don't like these 4 times per year dividends - I prefer once or twice a year, but has a long history of paying out these dividends). So, I can be relatively assured, based on its long history, that it will pay dividend again end this year when it makes monies and so far, no reason why not. E.g. Q1/23 EPS was 5.33 sen, and even in the worst covid times, lowest earnings is 3.84, 4.08 and 4.95 sen so, if I assume the worst earnings in next 3 quarters, total = 5.33 + 3.84 + 4.08 + 4.95 = 18.2 sen and times 60% payout ratio suggests dividends should not fall below ~ 11 sen. Thats around 6.4% dividend yield if its business, over next 3 quarters, earns the lowest 3 quarter of EPS. That beats EPF. So, I'm comfortable to have my monies to keep buying BIMB, unless for next 3 quarters, its earnings are worst than the lowest 3 quarterly earnings over past 8 years (which seems less likely to me).

As Buffett says, if you cannot stomach a 50% fall from your entry price, you should never be a stock investor. Go do something else. For me, if it falls down another 50% from here, I welcome as look at that dividend yield.

fortune, 1.5 could also be hit, as noone really knows, it's an uncertainty. As for fair price, it could be fair for a short while, before market changes its mind on what the fair price might be. Market is fickled. Today it thinks fair is 1.73. A year ago, it thought fair was around 3. Market can never decide what is fair.

On Monthly chart, looks to me, next support level could be around 1.64. This is close to 1.63, its opening price in Jan 2000, 23 years ago :-)

On weekly candlesticks, the chart is still showing downtrend. A lot of times, price keeps falling.

2nd entry @ 3.32 filled this morning. Now 2% of portfolio. Not sure if will get the chance to get to 5% of portfolio, but let's see how prices behaves in the coming weeks.

Soon9913, likely MALAKOF over bought coal and increased its inventories in Q4 as coal prices was rising and peaked before the 60% price crash. Some analysts thinks this lower ACP will spill over into Q2/23. Hence Q2 is expected to be soft which means likely Q2 dividend will be nil in light of Q1 loss of 2 Sen. Bad Q4 mistake by MALAKOF management.

Your 95 Sen estimate will come down again in your coming updates in 2023, just like how you brought it down from 1.02.

Order to buy at 1.28 filled. Still a small position.

My 2nd buy order at 1.75 was filled. Getting close to 4% of portfolio now. If price makes new low, that may be my last buy at lower price. Now, it's do nothing and just wait for as long as it takes for market to come back to its senses.

They have to cut dividends.

1Q23 EPS of -2.03 was clearly a terrible result. Never in its last 8 years history has 1Q earnings been negative. As a result of the negative earnings, TTM EPS is only 2.63. Assuming 90% payout ratio, this suggests dividend of say 2.4 sen, a huge drop from prior year 5.25 and would be a record low payout for MALAKOF. As a dividend investor, I am disappointed with 1Q results. My guess is the traditional 2nd quarter dividend will be nil.

Yesterday first entry at 3.42 filled. Nice. Looking to accumulate at lower prices. Dividend yield too tempting. Over past 8 years, lowest dividend is 25 sen. TTM dividend 30 sen. At 25 sen, dividend yield is over 7%. This conglomerate is a survivor, happy to accumulate at lower prices until it gets to around 5% of a diversified dividend portfolio. I don't believe in "all in". This company also has a decent dividend payout ratio of around 80% plus / minus ... I like companies that shares its earnings with shareholders.

Happy to have sold all earlier at 4.18. The dividend yield was getting a bit too low for me compared to stocks I'm eyeing now like BIMB.

Time to start accumulating ... too cheap to ignore. Yesterday's buy order below 1.8 was filled very nicely. BIMB is a prudent dividend payor, paying only 40%-50% of its net earnings in dividends. Yes, Consumer banking margins has dropped nearly 10% YoY, but look at how much the price has over-reacted. BIMB BNM capital ratios has not deteriorated. Dividend yields are now above 7% alone. The bank should continue to grow over time. Whilst I don't subscribe to "all in", serious considerations should be given to make this at least 5% of one's diversified stock portfolio, or a little bigger.

Happy to start accumulating around this price.

cwc1981, that's a tough question to answer. Clearly, EPS is not a good measure, because it is an accounting measure that doesn't reflect TALIWRK's cashflows properly, because it is after depreciation and non-cash adjustments that understates its cash generating abilities.
However, committing to 1.65 sen every quarter requires RM33 million cash payouts - that's a lot of money.
Q1/23 cash has improved than Q4/22 and Management indicates they can further improve from their renewables segment by over RM100 million, but Management can say anything.
One measure is EBDA (Earnings Before Depreciation and Adjustment). For Q1/23, it improved to RM23.6m vs RM20.0m the prior quarter. But RM23.6m is still less than RM33m dividends. So, I'm wondering if investors should be worried?
However, its EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Adjustment) is 36.3m, larger than 33m. But doesn't TALIWRKS have to pay interest costs, and taxes? And after payment, they don't really belong to shareholders anymore isn't it? So, how to justify?
However, if you look at its Cash holdings, after paying out 33m, its cash balance grew from 48m to 76m.
In short, yes, it looks fishy, but:
1. Management indicates they have no problem to support 1.65 sen dividend (but do you trust them?)
2. Cash increases. (but do you understand how cash has increased?)
3. Management further indicates there's room to improve the renewables segment (but do you trust them?).
If unsure, keep it a small proportion of your portfolio and don't be greedy with the high dividend yield.
Because Return OF Investment is much more important than Return ON Investment.

On the other hand, Hap Seng do have nice cash and short term deposits to support the dividend, so, maybe market over-reacted?

The trouble with selling assets to realize gains today, is that after sale, no more future profits. In this sense, Hap Seng will be different now. But fortunately, Hap Seng is a large conglomerate with diversified businesses, so, sale of one piece probably won't be missed too much in the future. But the rest of its business need to hold / improve and that is a big question mark for the market right now.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3359643. Sale of HCML completed. Expect profit = 2x Book of 51m UKP ~ 102m UKP ~ MYR580 million ~ 23 sen. To support this year's dividend of 30 sen, Hap Seng have to earn say 38 sen (to maintain similar payout ratios), i.e. to date has done 25 sen and need another 13 sen for next 2-3 quarters. Should be doable. However, given the poor earnings in Q1, I suspect management and Board will cut dividends by 5 sen or more, if they commit to reduce borrowings by 650 million as stated in their proposal. In fact, very little is available to support dividends (even if they could) and looks like market is thinking that instead of supporting dividends, Board and management intends to reduce borrowings and so, very likely, we will see a hefty dividend cut. Possible that the dividend this year will be the lowest ever if they don't borrow to pay dividends and if earnings remain poor the next 3 quarters. Their lowest dividend was 25 sen and if they don't borrow, earning only 2 sen in Q1, they have huge ground to barely support 20 sen.

According to the performance review, the lower earnings are due to 1. Lower Plantation contribution, 2. Lower Property contribution, 3. Lower Credit Financing contribution. Plantatiion lower due to lower average selling price, higher production costs, loss of biological assets vs gain prior year. Property lower, due to no one-off land sale gain the prior year and less completed units sold this year. 3. Lower credit financing due to cautious lending from higher interest rates. It seems the overall picture painted by Management - my interpretation - is that last year may be better than normal year and this year may be worse than normal year.

Q1/23 earnings was bad (2.04 sen vs 6.28/4.85/6.44/6.35 sen the prior 4 years Q1) - it's the worst Q1 in past 8 years. Guess market is spooked, because historically, HAPSENG dividend payout ratio is around 80% or so and if earnings dropped so much, then, there's fear dividends will follow.
Normally, 1 quarter movement shouldn't spook investors so much though.

This stock price lost 50% in just 4 month ... daily candlesticks show selling pressure paused, but weekly candles still showing downtrend. The patient investor can take his time to accumulate slowly, split his buys into several buckets that accumulates. Notwitstanding, the first question is - is this a stock to invest in long term? How can market be so inefficient, to price this stock above RM7.50 since 2016 i.e. nearly 7 years and now suddenly collapsed? What has changed over that 7-8 year period?

Price will not recover so fast. Expect to have time to accumulate at lower prices. No rush.

Analysts have TP higher than current price, ranging from 77 sen to 95 sen. I think they are too optimistic. So, expect price to go down. Dividends will have more than 50:50 chance of being cut, because if include the perpetual sukuk, then, payout ratio past 5 years will have been far above threshold already.

Raiz, good call. I think that's a good spot to accumulate. Perhaps 50:50 chance that support there may be broken, since Malakoff hasn't have a worse quarterly loss like this since listing, so, maybe better than 50:50 chance to make a new low.

"Prospects for Rest of the Year
The Group’s profitability for this year is dependent on the price direction for CPO and crop
production. Palm oil production in the first Quarter of 2023 had been adversely impacted by the
heavy rainfall and flooding phenomenon in parts of Malaysia. However, CPO production is
forecasted to trend higher in second half of 2023 following the expected improvement in weather
condition in the months ahead.
Palm oil prices remained favourable in the first Quarter of 2023 driven by lower production of other
vegetable oil in Ukraine due to ongoing war with Russia, rising biodiesel demand and increase in
edible oil imports by China, among others. Nevertheless, CPO prices are forecasted to weaken in the
second half of 2023 due to expected higher CPO production season, high inventory level and subdue
demand.
The Group is optimistic that the gradual return of foreign workers would lift the FFB yield, which
could partially offset the impact of lower CPO prices and rising costs. "

Q1/23 EPS 0.23 sen, not enough to cover 1 sen first interim dividend.

First interim dividend 1 sen, ex 8 June

Technical chart is ugly, but fundamentals / value is getting more attractive as price falls. At 2.35, total market cap is only 604 million and this company has RM361 million in cash. Given today's buybacks at 2.32 to 2.35, I'm queueing to add at 2.32 to test the water. A long time ago, I queued to buy at 2.51 in a GTC order and was filled. The dividend yield alone beats EPF even at 2.51, so, I think good odds. Keep total investment small % of portfolio so that any one wrong mistakes doesn't hurt.

At this price RM1.27, I am slowly adding. If price goes lower, will keep adding until I get a full position. Keep each stock a small % of your dividend portfolio and if you are wrong, it won't hurt you. If it pays 2 sen dividend every quarter, 8 sen per year, 8 / 1.27 = 6.3% which beats EPF already. Be patient.

Doesn't matter DRP or cash - collect RM169m and pay out RM127m means the rest of the business is not adding to dividends but serves as distractions. Deserves low valuation.

Analyst is not looking at 3-6 months! This CEO forgot to mention that despite Net Cash, it has committed RM7 billion in capital commitment, when its Net Cash is only less than 10% of this. By the time the LINE project is over, this company will be in large debts, with expansion at a time when it's making large losses.

This expansion may turn out to be the right decision if there's a turnaround by 2025 meaning by the time the LINE project starts producing huge supplies, price is high - if their timing is accurate, then, LCTITAN could end up being grossly undervalued. However, if they are wrong in their timing, shareholders will see even greater pain!

Analyst is not looking at 3-6 months! This CEO forgot to mention that despite Net Cash, it has committed RM7 billion in capital commitment, when its Net Cash is only less than 10% of this. By the time the LINE project is over, this company will be in large debts, with expansion at a time when it's making large losses.

This expansion may turn out to be the right decision if there's a turnaround by 2025 meaning by the time the LINE project starts producing huge supplies, price is high - if their timing is accurate, then, LCTITAN could end up being grossly undervalued. However, if they are wrong in their timing, shareholders will see even greater pain!

ilyst926, that's true. 2 years ago, market valued Mi highly, including a successful private placement at much higher price than today. Those investors must be very angry looking at today's share price.

In A13, its capital commitment is only 9m. How to make sense with B7 where the private placement says 295m, utilizing 53.5%. Does this mean MI raised a lot of monies, but have no concrete plans on how to spend it, and then borrows monies and what's the plan to arrest the huge drop in SEBU profitability? Does Management knows what it is doing?

In A9 in quarterly report, its segmental reporting somewhat unclear. For SEBU line (semi-con equipment business unit), YoY, revenues dropped from 44.6m down to 39.1m, delta of 5.5m. PBT dropped from 7.3m down to 1.3m, delta of 6m, bigger than revenue drop. Can't make sense of that reporting at all, as PBT dropped even more than revenues. Market has to assume the worse that its SEBU business must be struggling a lot.

B7 in the quarterly report said that the private placement of RM295m was utilized 53.5% leaving another 46.5% unutilized, which includes repaying 15m borrowings, but there's a disconnect that that instead of repaying 15m borrowing, it borrowed 22m. Hmmm ... no clues.

Mi needs to explain more transparently how it manages its cash. It's Net Cash positive. Money Market funds 199m + Cash 197m. Yet, it borrowed 22m in the quarter. Why? Why borrow 22m (presumably not interest free) when it has so much cash? The only reason is if it can earn more in cash than its borrowings, which raises eyebrows. Hoarding cash and not explaining its latest plans on the cash hoard leaves the market suspicious - the market is littered with companies that never shares its cash with shareholders for many, many years.

OSK need to have a clearer dividend policy that says “I will at least pass through 100% of what RHB gives”. Then it sends a message that OSK does not have a “negative dividend policy”. Market doesn’t like negative dividend policies.

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2023/02/884022/osk-has-returned-pre-pandemic-levels-new-peak-2016. When saw this kind of "marketing, self-promotional" news a while ago, initial thoughts are - "great, so, new peak profits since 2016 ... so, where's the dividend to shareowners?"; Why can't they pass through what they collect from RHB in its entirety? If they did this, for sure the stock price will shoot up.

Management don't have to work too hard to increase stock price here ... it's no brainer. Just pass through 100% what they get from RHBBANK and bang! Price goes up.

To me, dividend is king. It's property businesses everywhere in Malaysia and Australia - I mean, if all that other business cannot add to the dividend it gets from RHB, what's the point of running all those other businesses? So, whether it is top dividend property company makes no financial sense to me, when the business didn't generate the dividend but its ownership of RHBBANK shares. Wierd ...

I also don't think OSK will dispose its stake in RHB. Noted in 2016 Annual Report, that it owned 10.1% of RHB back then - that's like 7 years ago. Today still 10.22%, so, not much has changed, they kept it for at least 7+ years. They could have disposed and capitalize anytime in between. Furthermore, I think I read somewhere that they have Board representation and significant influence on RHB Bank future strategic directions. Doubt they will let go of that, given the likely large business inter-relationships.

My gut feel is the quality of management is poor and likely attributable to its long standing management culture. It is crazy that the stock NTA is like 2.75, but trades at only 0.96, a difference of RM1.75 or RM3.5 billion. This is taking all asset values, netting of all of its liabilities including netting off all of its 3 billion loans, to leave behind 5.75 billlion of Net Assets, and Market is only valuing this at 2 billion, ignoring the remaining 3.75 billion. Something like this.

Probably market is putting a huge discount, because of what I described above - collect 169 million from RHB BANK, but can only pay RM127 million to its shareholders. What laa ....

If you like RHBBANK, go buy RHBBANK. Don't buy via OSK, because its management does somethiing wierd that ends up giving less dividends.

OSK is a very interesting company. It is true that it owns 10.22% of RHBBANK. As a result, last year, it received ~ RM169 million in dividends from RHBBANK.

But it only paid out RM127 million to its shareholders. Question is where is the remaining RM42 million? It runs a business that is supposed to be dividend addition, i.e. the rest of its business, by right, should add to the total of RM169 million dividends received from RHBBANK. Instead, its management is unable to generate more cash to add to the dividends, and only able to pay RM127 million.

Hence, market doesn't value the rest of its business. Probably because of poor management. Good management will create cash to add to the 169 million to pay its shareholders higehr than 169 million in dividends.

Looks like market is anticipating BESHOM to cut the final dividend from 5 sen last year. I am half expecting 3 sen which is not a bad dividend to get, to bring total dividend to 6 sen, for a total dividend yield of 5%, based on 1.19 price. MLM division is now much smaller than peak, has become smaller than Wholesale division and comparable to Retail division, MLM can still go down (or up), but like to think most of the damage is done - however, this statement is speculative, and probably better to wait and see if bottom is really there or not. They manage to grow both Wholesale and Retail division, so, won't write them off as dead yet ...

ChongLeeWon, on the contrary, no effort at all - comments here will not impact prices at all, it is futile to even try. My point is simple - 3 weeks ago, someone said ASTRO will be privatized in 2 weeks time. Well, that was a week ago .. And, 3 weeks ago, many saw that privatization rumour was fake news, all I did was merely stating that fact what many saw.

speak, I have Alaqar, but chose not to own Sunreit.

Or put another way, to support 3+3+3+3+5 sen dividend = 17 sen dividend needs 78 million payout.
Investing activities may add 8 million.
So, Operating Profit needs to get to 70 million in a year.
Last Q1, Operating Profit is negative. How to make 70 million Operating Profit a year to support the 17 sen dividend?
For sure, that dividend is going to get cut, if the business doesn't turn around.

So economies gloablly have reopened for nearly a year now. Yet, how come ZHULIAN cannot make an Operating Profit yet??? Something is broken ... the question is - is it broken permanently?