@Probability,
Your statements on (a) Petron's refining capacity is less than 1/4 of HY and (b) Petron's produces more than 30% Fuel Oil yield at negative crack spread (hitting -ve USD15/barrel) hard to hold water!
Your statements gave misleading impression that Petron's is less than 1/4 of HY's size and Petron's is much less profitable than HY. All these somehow do not match to the financial data published .
Let me provide recent comparative data for clarity :
Petron's Sales volume and Revenue :
Q1 2022 -7.7 mil barrels, RM3,800 mil
2021 - 26.3 mil barrels, RM9,183 mil
2020 -28.5 mil barrels. RM6,462 mil
(Petron's sales and production in 2020 and 2021 are lower than pre-covid years due to movement control orders)

HY's Sales Vol and Revenue :
Q1 2022 10.6 mil barrels, RM4,952 mil
2021 36.3 mil barrels, RM12,006 mil
2020 35.1 mil barrels, RM7,176 mil
From the above you can see that Petron is 73-81 % of HY's Sales vol and 76-90% in term of HY's revenue !

In term of profitability vis-a vis crack spread :
Petron's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM106.4 mil ,
2021 - RM238.5 mil ,
2020 - (13.3 mil)
HY's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM 47.5 mil,
2021 - RM83 mil ,
2020 - RM251 mil
Avg crack spread :
Q12022 - about USd14 ,
2021 -about USD8.3 ,
2020 -aboutUSD1.70
(Crack spread based on Spore mogas 92 unleaded (Platts) Brent crack Spread)
You can see that Petron outperformed HY in Q12022 and FY2021 when crack spread improved to healthy level. Whereas HY did very well in 2020 when crack spread was extremely low for that year.
In my earlier post, i have also presented the 5 years and 10-years average EPS and Dividends of petron and HY. Petron stand up well.
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Probability wrote :
See the chart in 2016 annual report:

2) Refinery margin in a quarter (based on its regular throughput per day of 48k although its max daily capacity is 88k). Management also told us in AGM that its refinery currently running at around 60% (I use AR report throughput which is more conservative).

@krish52, the 1st reward is 45sen dividend already proposed. I think the share price has yet to considered this proposal. Once the resolutions are passed (and money is considered in pocket) , the share price shall go higher from where it is now .
After insurance sales and the corresponding 45sen dividend, what next to expect? This is something all investors have to think about .

Press down the price also no use lah. Just too few willing to let go their share .

To me PetronM being an integrated petroluem player having above 80% of sales in domestic market has its advantage and consistency. It is simpler to understand too.
Apart from refining margin (determined by crack spread), it also enjoy retail/distribution margin .
Dividends are consistent and added up a lot more than HY in the past years, This matters a lot to long term investors.
I have about equal exposure in petron and HY. Intend to shift higher weightage to petron.

@ probability,
I would also like to get clarification of your below statement on petronM refining capacity .
It is definately NOT true that petronM is less than 1/4 of HY. PetronM's refining capacity at Port Dickson is 88,000 barrels/calender day which translate to 32.1 mil barrel per year.
HY's production Q1 2022 was 10.6 mil barrels. Average 2017-2021 (5 years) was 36 mil barrels/year
PetronM's Q1 2022 was 7.7 mil barrels. Average 2017-2021 (5 years) 32.3 mil barrels/year.
NO doubt petronM is smaller, but not as small as you mentioned.


Probability posted :
As i had detailed many times you must see HY as a refinery processing 10.7 million barrels per quarter whereas PetronM refinery at less than 1/4 of HY capacity, i.e about 2.5 m barrels. Reason being PetronM is a simple refinery which produces more than 30% Fuel Oil with crack spread hitting negative - 15 USD/brl .

@Probalility,
You mentioned that PetronM is a simple refinery that produces >30% Fuel Oil yield at negative crack spread. For the benefit of all readers, can you clarify what is the Fuel Oil product you refer to ?
Per annual reports , PetronM's refining crude to gasoline, diesel, LPG and aviation fuel and all these products are enjoying high positive crack spread.
It also appear to me that the so called Fuel Oil negative crack spread did not affected profitability of PetronM at all. NPAT Q1 2022 after charging RM230 realised and unrealised derivative loss was RM106.4 mil (39.4 cent/share). Without the derivative loss, NPAT would have been $281.2 mil ($1.04/share)
I wonder what is the significant of Fuel Oil negative crack spread ?

Historical performance comparision :
EPS Q1 2022 - Petron 39.3 sen , HY 15.82 sen
EPS 2017-2021 (5 year average) - petron 76.44 sen, HY 88.52 sen
EPS 2012-2021 (10 years average) - petron 52.56sen , HY 19.73 sen.

Dividend 2017-2021 (5 years total) Petron 82 sen, HY 6 sen
Dividend 2012-2021 (10 years total) Petron 152sen , HY 6 sen

In the case of HY, high crack spread may not translate to high profit as evidenced in Q1 2022 results due to overwhelming derivatives losses which no one can practically foresee. Hedging thru derivative tools supposed to protect margin from higher the normal crack spread in q1 2022. That certainly not the case we see.

The euphoria of getting multi shipment of discounted Russian crude may be overplayed.
I suspect, the purchase of Russian Crude is done thru' HY's parent company in China and the benefit of the discount may have been fully reaped by the parent company . That is how foreign parent company use the transfer pricing strategy to siphon profit out .

As at 31/3/2022 closing, The nett Derivative Liabilities (ie derivative asset - detivative liabilities) for petronM and HY are as below :
PetronM : (RM52.06 mil)
HY : (RM407.32 mil)
Can any financial accountant help to explain what is the impact of subsequent qtr P&L ?

Can any

@Abba84, I have said enough in the past 1 year and the numbers are out there . I have nothing more to say. Hahaha..

We don’t know what are their positions in commodity swap and Crack Spread Swap for Q2. Huge hedging losses in Q2 is still possible if bet on the wrong direction.
—————————
Posted by Probability:
no one can predict the future, but now the future is seen - exploding crack, they will capitalize

Let the naysayers continue with their negative attitude as they like to ignore all facts and figures out there. They can’t dictate the market anyway, but the deep pockets manipulators can . The manipulators will eventually want to reap huge gain from share price rally

Let the naysayers continue with their negative attitude and ignore all facts and figures out there. They can’t dictate the market anyway, but the deep pockets manipulators can . The manipulators will eventually want to reap huge gain from share price rally .

@probability, I don’t see any refinery margin swap (derivative) being reported (HRC did). Neither can we confirm if there is a refining contract performed at low margin .
Without the derivative losses amounting to $230 mil or $175 mil after the 24% corporate tax effect, PetronM could have made roughly $106+175 =$281 mil . That’s $1.04 per share per qtr and average crack spread in that qtr was about half of what is now .
Amid less volatile swing in crude price in Q2 and historic high crack spread I am quite sure Q2 will be explosive. I have equal exposure in both Petron and HRC.

Indeed, Q1 2022 results is simply stunning. NPAT from operations (stripping off land sales) is about $111 mil ($11.2 mil Q1 2021) . That is a stunning 890 % increase.
Net borrowing (total borrowing minus Cash) is reduced to $564 mil (from $932 mil a year ago).
Net cash generated from operations is $98.2mil for Q1 2022 alone!
Very soon, bplant will be net cash company.
CPO price realised is $6,030 ! That is simply stunning and probably the highest in the industry.

@Sslee, the derivative loss is certainly in commodity swap. I think Petronm hedged too aggressively the crude (raw material) they need for refining. Bear in mind that crude Brent price swung wildly in the qtr. It started (3rd Jan) at around USD78 and increased all the way to around USD124 (8th Mar) and plunged to USD96 (16th Mac) and it ended at USD103 on 31 Mac. When the Ukraine war broke out, oil traders in PetronM might have taken big position at high end of the price (eg USD124) thinking that Brent could scaled beyond USD124. Unfortunately, Brent came off drastically after peaking at USD124 around 8th march.

@klsejeff88, Cepat harvested more FFB in Q1 2022 than same period one year ago (21,977 MT vs 19,694 mt ). Do you think they have employed monkeys to harvest the fruits ??
Although labour shortage is real, the plantation management will know what to do to prioritise the work in the field. Trust me that harvesting FFB is right at the top of the list. Other field upkeep works can be delayed while whatever can be mechanised is machinesed.

I am a bit cautious on Cypark when the company fail to pay any dividend for years (not even a few cents) despite reporting good earnings consistently.

Facts and figures are out there and can not tell lies. It's just a matter of a bit more time that Hengyuan and petronM will shine.

Per QR, total derivative losses charged is RM230 mil, out of which $52 mil is unrealised.
Hopefully, the unrealised portion of $52mil which is a temporary mark to market difference will come back in next qtr (?).
Imagine if there is no massive RM230 mil derivative losses charged, Q1 results would have been explosive too.
If the treasury people/traders don't screw up again, Q2's profit will surely be explosive!

The CEO is optimistic of the performance for 2022.
https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=126390&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Very hard to explain the recent unusual price drop and wild swing within a day. Total shorts for Petron on 25/5 was only 26,200 share only with RSS, IDSS,PSSand PDT included. Short selling can not explain it.
It was a coordinated attacks to bring price down, caused panic to traders and weak holders , diminishing buying interest, caused margin calls and forced selling and that spiraling the price down . The sharks will have no more room to manipulate when margin trades are squared off and retailers are not giving in. I think that day is near the corner.

Very hard to explain the recent unusual price drop and wild swing within a day. Total shorts for HRC on 25/5 was only 134,500 share only with RSS, IDSS,PSSand PDT included. Short selling can not explain it.
It was a coordinated attacks to bring price down, caused panic to traders and weak holders , diminishing buying interest, caused margin calls and forced selling and that spiraling the price down . The sharks will have no more room to manipulate when margin trades are squared off and retailers are not giving in. I think that day is near the corner.

Up or down depend if the sharks’ have achieved their objective. Hengyuan and petronM are being deliberately cornered.

Myself and a group of my friends have written letters to the Boards requesting total capital repayment/dividend sum to be higher than 45sen. Just pray hard that our voices are heard . If it comes it is bonus .

Crap or no crap . Just look at the wild price swing. Doesn’t it tell you something?


by Min9088 > 35 minutes ago | Report Abuse

talking crap lol

__________________________________________________
Johnzhang

I don’t think is because of the call warrant.
There is deep pocket sharks coordinating the attack on the energy stocks : hengyuan, Petron, Hibiscus, cypark . Cypark in renewable energy.

@sheldom, look at the price swing today . It tell us something.


Posted by sheldon > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

Johnzhang - i think and mainly HOPE that your point is valid - dump the shares to force margin players without deep pockets to sell, further aggravating the downward pressure so that the profiteers may pick the shares up for a song.

I hope I got that right.

Sharks can rule the market. This is because there is no buying support from foreign and local funds and retailers are weak too. Short selling is permitted by bursa . Nothing we can do .

Sharks are having coordinated attack on energy stock these 2 days : Petron, hengyuan, Hibiscus and cypark. Cypark is in renewable energy .

Many say the call warrant issue causes price to drop. I don’t think so.
There are deep pocket sharks coordinating the attack on the energy stocks : hengyuan, Petron, Hibiscus, cypark . Cypark in renewable energy.

I don’t think is because of the call warrant.
There is deep pocket sharks coordinating the attack on the energy stocks : hengyuan, Petron, Hibiscus, cypark . Cypark in renewable energy.

Cypark, along with hengyuan, Petronm and hibiscus are attached by sharks.

Apart from hengyuan and petronM, Sharks are attacking Hibiscus and cypark too! It’s damn obvious. Why is authority not taking action?

The sharks’s action has successfully induced forced selling or margin call which further put downward pressure on stock price . This exactly meeting the sharks’ objective.

The sharks’s action has successfully induced forced selling or margin call which further put downward pressure on stock price . This exactly meeting the sharks’ objective.

Seem to me that both Hengyuan and PetronM are being cornered these 2 days . These happens just before QR to be announced soon. Worthwhile to top up at current level

Seem to me that both Hengyuan and PetronM have been cornered these 2 days . These happens just before QR to be announced soon. Worthwhile to top up at current level .

Make good money and can’t afford to pay a single sen of dividend for years . Very fishy .

The overall sentiment for plantations are badly affected by the disappointing results of the big caps.

All my small cap and mid cap plantations show excellent Q1 2022 results :
SOP EPS 34.09sen (+146% yoy)
Bplant EPS 19.43 sen (+353% yoy for operations)
Taann EPS 23.75 sen (+155% yoy)
Swkpltn EPS 15.52 sen (+82% yoy)
MHC EPS 5.8sen (+67% yoy)
Cepat EPS 4.93sen (+172% yoy)

They put the big boys to shame !
UP EPS 14.39sen (- 20% yoy)
Simepltn EPS 10.4sen (+27% yoy)
IOI EPS 6.62sen (+3% yoy)

Stay invested in small and mid cap plantation counters. The best yet to come.

Lower production in March qtr compared to Dec qtr is due to crop seasonality . Every year is the same !

Unbelievable how the market function ！

Extremely weak market sentiment, no support from foreign and local institutions, local retailers severely hurt by recent months sell down of penny stocks, glove and tech stocks. Therefore, manipulators rule the market. Truly value and long term investors will profit eventually.

It’s great buying opportunity for truly value and long term investors.

Extremely weak market sentiment, no support from foreign and local institutions, local retailers severely hurt by recent months sell down of penny stocks, glove and tech stocks. Therefore, manipulators rule the market. Truly value and long term investors will profit eventually.

It's foolish to compare qoq for plantations which has crop yield seasonality.

@stockpicker888, stripping the gain on land disposal, operating earning is 353% higher YOY.

Posted by stockpicker888 > 19 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Reading the QR, Isn’t the huge jump in profit due to disposal of plantation assets at 364 million? If we minus this, the result could be flattish or slightly -ve, which is an expected quarter, inline with most companies. Nevertheless, this is still a potential counter, but buyer have to realise the reason of the high profit and dividend.

All my small cap and mid cap plantations show excellent Q1 2022 results :
SOP EPS 34.09sen (+146% yoy)
Bplant EPS 19.43 sen (+353% yoy for operations)
Taann EPS 23.75 sen (+155% yoy)
Swkpltn EPS 15.52 sen (+82% yoy)
MHC EPS 5.8sen (+67% yoy)
Cepat EPS 4.93sen (+172% yoy)

They put the big boys to shame !
UP EPS 14.39sen (- 20% yoy)
Simepltn EPS 10.4sen (+27% yoy)
IOI EPS 6.62sen (+3% yoy)

Stay invested in small and mid cap plantation counters. The best yet to come.

All my small cap and mid cap plantations show excellent Q1 2022 results :
SOP EPS 34.09sen (+146% yoy)
Bplant EPS 19.43 sen (+353% yoy for operations)
Taann EPS 23.75 sen (+155% yoy)
Swkpltn EPS 15.52 sen (+82% yoy)
MHC EPS 5.8sen (+67% yoy)
Cepat EPS 4.93sen (+172% yoy)

They put the big boys to shame !
UP EPS 14.39sen (- 20% yoy)
Simepltn EPS 10.4sen (+27% yoy)
IOI EPS 6.62sen (+3% yoy)

Stay invested in small and mid cap plantation counters. The best yet to come.

All my small cap and mid cap plantations show excellent Q1 2022 results :
SOP EPS 34.09sen (+146% yoy)
Bplant EPS 19.43 sen (+353% yoy for operations)
Taann EPS 23.75 sen (+155% yoy)
Swkpltn EPS 15.52 sen (+82% yoy)
MHC EPS 5.8sen (+67% yoy)
Cepat EPS 4.93sen (+172% yoy)

They put the big boys to shame !
UP EPS 14.39sen (- 20% yoy)
Simepltn EPS 10.4sen (+27% yoy)
IOI EPS 6.62sen (+3% yoy)

Stay invested in small and mid cap plantation counters. The best yet to come.