This counter is in doldrums is due to excessive delay in highway completion and toll collection schedules, hence greatly affect the company’s cashflow. I think share price will go much higher once toll collection for 80% of its highway is reached . If traffic volume surpass expectation, share price will jump. Patience is the key .

@Edge, I think major shareholders like Surin and Pang will not agree if the takeover offer is anything less than $1.50. Notwithstanding that the RI was cheap , their cost for the initial batches of share acquisition was $1.30+ .
Someone has worked out the NPV of the cash flows based on certain assumptions of traffic volume about 2 years ago and he arrived at fair median value of $1.50+ too.
You can search for that posting in this forum .

Original cost of acquisition (after considering the right issue dilution) by the top 3 shareholders who collectively control over 60% of the company was more than double of today’s price .

Once it is completed, it will be a cash cow that many will go after .

Haha.. TDM and Jtiasa no more the cheapest plantation stocks? Now Teck Guan ? What is next ?

@leno, living inside sabah jungle is very healthy lah. Got fresh air, clean water, organic food , stress free etc. Sure can live over 100. Hehehe

https://newswav.com/A2203_hI5WOK?s=A_GSkLXVj

China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change

Bloomberg News08:30 AM IST, 23 Mar 2022
(Bloomberg) -- More extreme weather caused by rising global temperatures — compounded by geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic — is hindering China’s effort to ensure food supplies for its 1.4 billion population.

President Xi Jinping has made food security a priority for the world’s second-biggest economy, an effort to meet the soaring demand that’s pushed imports of corn, soybeans and wheat to record levels, making Beijing increasingly vulnerable to trade tensions and supply shocks. At the same time, climate change-induced disasters have caused widespread crop damage and shrunk the amount of arable land, making it harder to boost local production.

Tang Renjian, the country’s agriculture minister, brought up the threat at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month. “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn,” he told reporters. “Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”

More than 860 people died or went missing in natural disasters last year, which damaged almost 30 million acres of crops. Record-breaking rains in the central province of Henan in July alone damaged 2.1 million acres of farmland. The floods delayed planting on more than 18 million acres of land, about one-third of China’s total winter wheat acreage. The amount of first- and second-grade crops, where there are more than 2.7 million seedlings on every acre of land, fell by more than 20% this year compared with normal years.

Climate change hurts China’s pursuit of food security in two ways, according to Zhang Zhaoxin, a researcher with the agricultural ministry. More frequent extreme weather events are already lowering crop yields. Meanwhile, increasingly unpredictable seasons can undermine farmers’ confidence and potentially worsen the sector’s existing labor shortage.

Farmers in northern China are used to droughts, not floods, Zhang said. In many of the regions that were affected by torrential rain last year, farmers couldn’t harvest their corn because their machinery couldn’t handle the water. There wasn’t enough infrastructure such as pipes and systems to drain the field in time.

Those issues are set to get more serious as the planet warms. Seasonal droughts will reduce yields of China’s three major staple foods — rice, wheat and corn — by 8% by the end of the decade, according to World Resources Institute. In the longer term, climate change also means rising coastal waters along the long and low eastern coal could further stress the agricultural industry.

“As climate change continues to intensify in coming years, weather events are going to have a greater and greater impact on agricultural productivity,” said Even Pay, an agricultural analyst with Trivium. Ramping up imports isn’t a viable alternative, she added, pointing out that global warming makes food cultivation more challenging globally. “Climate change felt in the rest of the world could also impact China’s food security,” she said.

China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change

Bloomberg News08:30 AM IST, 23 Mar 2022
(Bloomberg) -- More extreme weather caused by rising global temperatures — compounded by geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic — is hindering China’s effort to ensure food supplies for its 1.4 billion population.

President Xi Jinping has made food security a priority for the world’s second-biggest economy, an effort to meet the soaring demand that’s pushed imports of corn, soybeans and wheat to record levels, making Beijing increasingly vulnerable to trade tensions and supply shocks. At the same time, climate change-induced disasters have caused widespread crop damage and shrunk the amount of arable land, making it harder to boost local production.

Tang Renjian, the country’s agriculture minister, brought up the threat at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month. “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn,” he told reporters. “Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”

More than 860 people died or went missing in natural disasters last year, which damaged almost 30 million acres of crops. Record-breaking rains in the central province of Henan in July alone damaged 2.1 million acres of farmland. The floods delayed planting on more than 18 million acres of land, about one-third of China’s total winter wheat acreage. The amount of first- and second-grade crops, where there are more than 2.7 million seedlings on every acre of land, fell by more than 20% this year compared with normal years.

Climate change hurts China’s pursuit of food security in two ways, according to Zhang Zhaoxin, a researcher with the agricultural ministry. More frequent extreme weather events are already lowering crop yields. Meanwhile, increasingly unpredictable seasons can undermine farmers’ confidence and potentially worsen the sector’s existing labor shortage.

Farmers in northern China are used to droughts, not floods, Zhang said. In many of the regions that were affected by torrential rain last year, farmers couldn’t harvest their corn because their machinery couldn’t handle the water. There wasn’t enough infrastructure such as pipes and systems to drain the field in time.

Those issues are set to get more serious as the planet warms. Seasonal droughts will reduce yields of China’s three major staple foods — rice, wheat and corn — by 8% by the end of the decade, according to World Resources Institute. In the longer term, climate change also means rising coastal waters along the long and low eastern coal could further stress the agricultural industry.

“As climate change continues to intensify in coming years, weather events are going to have a greater and greater impact on agricultural productivity,” said Even Pay, an agricultural analyst with Trivium. Ramping up imports isn’t a viable alternative, she added, pointing out that global warming makes food cultivation more challenging globally. “Climate change felt in the rest of the world could also impact China’s food security,” she said.

China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change

Bloomberg News08:30 AM IST, 23 Mar 2022
(Bloomberg) -- More extreme weather caused by rising global temperatures — compounded by geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic — is hindering China’s effort to ensure food supplies for its 1.4 billion population.

President Xi Jinping has made food security a priority for the world’s second-biggest economy, an effort to meet the soaring demand that’s pushed imports of corn, soybeans and wheat to record levels, making Beijing increasingly vulnerable to trade tensions and supply shocks. At the same time, climate change-induced disasters have caused widespread crop damage and shrunk the amount of arable land, making it harder to boost local production.

Tang Renjian, the country’s agriculture minister, brought up the threat at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month. “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn,” he told reporters. “Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”

More than 860 people died or went missing in natural disasters last year, which damaged almost 30 million acres of crops. Record-breaking rains in the central province of Henan in July alone damaged 2.1 million acres of farmland. The floods delayed planting on more than 18 million acres of land, about one-third of China’s total winter wheat acreage. The amount of first- and second-grade crops, where there are more than 2.7 million seedlings on every acre of land, fell by more than 20% this year compared with normal years.

Climate change hurts China’s pursuit of food security in two ways, according to Zhang Zhaoxin, a researcher with the agricultural ministry. More frequent extreme weather events are already lowering crop yields. Meanwhile, increasingly unpredictable seasons can undermine farmers’ confidence and potentially worsen the sector’s existing labor shortage.

Farmers in northern China are used to droughts, not floods, Zhang said. In many of the regions that were affected by torrential rain last year, farmers couldn’t harvest their corn because their machinery couldn’t handle the water. There wasn’t enough infrastructure such as pipes and systems to drain the field in time.

Those issues are set to get more serious as the planet warms. Seasonal droughts will reduce yields of China’s three major staple foods — rice, wheat and corn — by 8% by the end of the decade, according to World Resources Institute. In the longer term, climate change also means rising coastal waters along the long and low eastern coal could further stress the agricultural industry.

“As climate change continues to intensify in coming years, weather events are going to have a greater and greater impact on agricultural productivity,” said Even Pay, an agricultural analyst with Trivium. Ramping up imports isn’t a viable alternative, she added, pointing out that global warming makes food cultivation more challenging globally. “Climate change felt in the rest of the world could also impact China’s food security,” she said.

Goh123, you can be in trouble if someone report the statement you make . Just a friendly advice.

Posted by Goh123 > 13 hours ago | Report Abuse

no undertable mof will no giving to approve

What Nasim said to the press can mean LTAT will dispense off Bstead holding and LTAT will increase assets allocation in fixed income investmen. But how are they going to do it ? One possibility is to privatize Bstead based on share exchange with minorities eg Bplant or Affin share for Bstead share on certain ratio. In this way, there is no cash outlay from LTAT. Once privatized, LTAT has free hand to strip the assets gradually to recover maximum cash for balancing its portfolio.
As such, I think privatization plan is not dead and buried. Just my view

@TheContrarian, I hope Goh123 doesn’t mean you bring bad luck . Hahaha…

Posted by Goh123 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

thecontrarian. if u sell the price will up

We have to guess what LTAT will do with Bstead.

According to Nazim, the SAA framework is
“The key idea of the SAA framework is to move away from investing largely in illiquid assets into more liquid assets

LTAT’s portfolio is highly concentrated, with 30 per cent and 16 per cent of about RM10 billion of assets under management (AUM) exposed to Boustead Holdings Bhd and its subsidiaries and Affin Bank Bhd, respectively, both of which (Boustead Holdings and Affin Bank) are deemed highly illiquid and not generating as much income as before, according to the fund.

This is 3 month FCPO ie forward May 2022 price.

Spot price was $6,700 yesterday. Most small and mid cap plantation sell on spot month basis .

Posted by ocbc > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil

RM$6000 now.

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. Most well managed plantations have cost of production around this level . Why so much hohahoha about fertilizer cost increase?
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy.
Why so much hohahoha about fertilizer cost increase?
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. Bplant cost of production may be $200 higher due to lower average yield.
Even if CPO is $5,000, Bplant will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. I think well managed plantation like Taann has cost of production about the same level .
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it expected it to increase about 10 to 15% yoy.
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

It is in the news that CPO export volume 1-15 March is over 10% higher than same period in Feb. Surely india and China are buying. CPO price now is more in line with other competing edible oil .

Timecom and SOP

Calvin, I follow your advice and ‘sapu kuat kuat’ yesterday.

CPO spot price still about $7,000 . Highly profitable for cepat as it sell on spot basis .

CPO spot price of about $7,000 is still highly profitable for Bplant. Bplant sell its CPO in spot market.

The well managed plantations’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

Sop’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,500 and achieved very high earnings . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

HSplant’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,400 and achieved very high earnings and dividend . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

The very well managed plantations’ realized CPO price for FY 2021 was $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings. FCPO April was about $6,900 and spot price is even higher. Don’t have to be overly worried of temporary price correction. That’s just my view .

TaAnn’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings. FCPO April was about $6,900 and spot price is even higher. Don’t have to be overly worried of temporary price correction. That’s just my view .

Titan scared shit and he started selling Taann from $3.20. Hehehe..

I pick Pchem, sop and Timecome

You hold a long term view based on the stock selection model .

@Fundamental Trader, I got your point . Thanks.

I think Tech stocks, consumer stocks , manufacturing stocks, etc will not do well amid hyperinflation, increasing interest rate , escalating /exorbitantly high raw materials and economic downturns in many big economies.

In your selections, I wonder if you are factoring in the present economic and geopolitical development.
These developments shall affect quite a few of your shortlisted 36 stocks in their yoy financial performance in next few qtrs.

This macik Zuraida simply shot only. Hahaha

It is LTAT that sell and the proceeds go back to LTAT’s bank account, not in politicians bank account . It is how LTAT helps the politicians that matters.
Posted by RJ87 > 11 hours ago | Report Abuse

It’s open secret that politician liquidates equity asset to finance political campaign. No need be shy about it.
———————————————
Johnzhang

Some time the selling is with other objective in mind , especially for politically linked stocks.
I shouldn’t say more .

Some time the selling is with other objective in mind , especially for politically linked stocks.
I shouldn’t say more .

Posted by RJ87 > 33 minutes ago | Report Abuse

LTAT long time no pay dividend dy. Finally got a cash cow to do that.

That is about 15x forward earning PE which is very fair .

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

JP Morgan's Jeffrey Ng revised KLK's target price to RM40.00

And I believe these stock will continue to generate yoy earning growth at least for the next 2-3 qtrs.
(Note; for plantation stocks you can not judge by qoq earning growth because FFB production is with considerable seasonal factor)

The stocks that passed right up to your 5th steps are : Cepat, HSplant, inno,Kmloong, MHC, SOP and Utd plant. All these happen to be plantation stocks that generate a lot of free cash from operations yearly . And they are in very healthy net cash position .

NEW YORK (March 12): Investors are rushing to recalibrate their portfolios for a potentially extended period of elevated commodity prices, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks eye-popping moves in raw materials that threaten to exacerbate inflation and hurt growth.

With the US economy already feeling the stress of a broad, post-Covid-19 boost in demand and a quick resolution to the West’s standoff with Russia in doubt, some investors are betting high commodity prices are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

"This is a very unique environment that we’re in because you have both demand shocks and supply shocks to the system at the same time," said Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital.

Marshall believes demand for commodities is likely to remain strong even if geopolitical tensions ebb, fuelled by factors like electric car battery production, which requires metals such as copper and nickel. A US$1 trillion US infrastructure bill passed in November is increasing demand for steel, cement and other commodities, he said.

He is increasing his stake in steel producer Cleveland Cliffs Inc and agricultural companies Tyson Foods Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, while cutting positions in consumer companies most likely to feel the brunt of higher gas and commodities.

Matthew Schwab, portfolio manager of the Harbor Capital All-Weather Inflation Focus ETF, has increased his exposure to oil and metals futures. Prices for industrial metals are likely to stay high due to underproduction during the coronavirus pandemic, while oil companies appear content to trade lower production for higher prices, he said.

"You are able to see the signs of a commodity price rally in the lack of investment over the last decade," Schwab said.

Mark Khalamayzer, lead manager of the Columbia Commodity Strategy Fund, has increased his exposure to oil and agricultural commodities to the highest limits allowed by his fund prospectus, betting that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to prices spiralling higher.

NEW YORK (March 12): Investors are rushing to recalibrate their portfolios for a potentially extended period of elevated commodity prices, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks eye-popping moves in raw materials that threaten to exacerbate inflation and hurt growth.

With the US economy already feeling the stress of a broad, post-Covid-19 boost in demand and a quick resolution to the West’s standoff with Russia in doubt, some investors are betting high commodity prices are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

"This is a very unique environment that we’re in because you have both demand shocks and supply shocks to the system at the same time," said Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital.

Marshall believes demand for commodities is likely to remain strong even if geopolitical tensions ebb, fuelled by factors like electric car battery production, which requires metals such as copper and nickel. A US$1 trillion US infrastructure bill passed in November is increasing demand for steel, cement and other commodities, he said.

He is increasing his stake in steel producer Cleveland Cliffs Inc and agricultural companies Tyson Foods Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, while cutting positions in consumer companies most likely to feel the brunt of higher gas and commodities.

Matthew Schwab, portfolio manager of the Harbor Capital All-Weather Inflation Focus ETF, has increased his exposure to oil and metals futures. Prices for industrial metals are likely to stay high due to underproduction during the coronavirus pandemic, while oil companies appear content to trade lower production for higher prices, he said.

"You are able to see the signs of a commodity price rally in the lack of investment over the last decade," Schwab said.

Mark Khalamayzer, lead manager of the Columbia Commodity Strategy Fund, has increased his exposure to oil and agricultural commodities to the highest limits allowed by his fund prospectus, betting that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to prices spiralling higher.

Even as investors try to align their portfolios to expectations of higher raw materials prices, they are worried about how the rally in commodities could hurt growth.

The risk of a recession led by a sharp cutback in consumer spending rises the longer that oil prices stay high, said Robert Schein, chief investment officer, Blanke Schein Wealth Management.

"If oil prices stay well above US$100 per barrel for a few months, the consumer and economy can withstand this, but if US$100-plus oil prices last for more than six months, that's when we will see recession risk surge," he said.

Oil palm plantation in Malaysia DO NOT use Ammonia gas, Ammonium Nitrate or urea as Nitrogen fertilizer. They use Ammonium Sulphate (AS) or Ammonium Chloride (AC) . AS is a byproducts from caprolactum factories and steel mills in many countries including China, Japan, Korea, Europe. AC is a byproduct of soda ash production mainly in China. AS and AC prices have gone down by 40-50% recently as compared to prices in Dec 2021 due to higher availability as the production of the main products (caproluctum, soda ash ) increased after winter/CNY festive season. AS and AC are not products of oil and gas.
The softer Nitrogen fertilizer price help to offset some of the impact from potentially higher potash price, I don't believe that the north American Potash producers can have absolute pricing power in potash amid Russian-Ukraine war.
Potash from belarus and russia are mainly shipped from St Petersburg via baltic sea which is not a war zone. All the potash volume sold by belarus and russia to US and Europe will be available to Asian buyers at a discount and displacing the north american producer market share in Asia. In the end, the American and European farmers get squeezed by the North American producers and Asia farmers enjoy price advantage from belarus/russia.

Fertilizer shortage does not affect oil palm plantation as much as it severely affect the short term seasonal edible oil crop like soya. Oil palm is very hardy perennial crop and with good amount nutrients reserve in plant tissues and in the ground . Oil palm withstand or survive years of zero fertilizers , months of draught, haze etc. Soya, corn and other short term seasonal crop can not.
As such, shortage of fertilizer or at exorbitant price shall give relative advantage to palm oil as it further tighten supply of competing oil.

Factoring in higher fertilizer prices, the cost of production for well managed plantation is in the range of $1,650 - $1,950 per mt of CPO. There is huge margin buffering any increase of input costs , any correction of CPO price or drop in production. Don't blur yourself with some of the challenges in the industry and you will just miss out the great opportunity to profit from this unprecedented development in edible oil market.

For future prices, go to Bursa website under derivatives.

Thomas, you can read the daily spot CPO price update by MPOB daily basis via below link. Many years data are also available.

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=1Y&tahun=2022
Posted by Thomas Chan Yeu Wai > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Hi peeps, can share which source you track palm oil price? today i try to search, market insider says RM7,715. Then MPOB showing RM6,961. Confused.