Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction. Need more clarity.

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction

Indonesia flip flop decision caused the correction!

Some panic selling arising from 5% drop in China market and fear of Covid lockdown in Beijing and other cities.
Once the dust is settled, price will resume north again.

Some panic selling arising from 5% drop in China market and fear of Covid lockdown in Beijing and other cities.
Once the dust is settled, price will resume north again.

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India can't do much too.

Hold on to Bplant at least until Q2 results in Aug 2022. You will see fantastic return.

Time to buy steel share !

I am waiting for Taann to cross $10 .

Cepat should worth $2 . Based on robust CPO price , , It shall earn about 25sen per share for FY2022

MHC should worth more than $2 . It earned 21.36 sen per share in 2021. With robust CPO price , it shall make much
more this year

THplant shall cross $1.50 soon .

SOP share price should surpass $10 . It’s expected EPS for FY2022 should be around $1.20 based on average CPO price of $6,000.
With Ukraine war prolonged and Indonesia export control , average CPO price for FY 2022 shall exceed $6,000 .

Me too. I will continue to buy the dips .

SBO was Usd 1,836/mt , equivalents to MR7,966.
Amid serious shortage arising from Indonesia’s export ban, CPO shouldn’t at least be on par with SBO.

CPO spot reached RM8,076 on 2/3/22 when Indonesia intended to set the minimum qty for exporter to sell domestically from 20% to 30% .
How high can CPO go when it is a blanket export ban now?

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to war, sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India are not keen to produce more .

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India can't do much too.

For FFB, there is seasonal peak and trough production pattern every year, it is only fair to compare yoy.

9. SOP

9. SOP

Many smart investors collecting this stock when there is price correction.

Park your money in energy, food commodities and metals to hedge hyperinflation.

The beneficiaries are 100% Malaysia based plantations such as Taann, SOp, swkpltn, MHC, cepat, HSplant, Kmloong etc.
Better stick to Malaysia based plantations . Indonesia frequent come with policy surprises and it’s no good for business.

Banning export shall flood the local Indonesian market with CPO and thus automatically drive local selling price for cooking oil , biodiesel and all consumer products containing palm oil to very low level. Jokowi is resolved to cushion the hardship face by his people due to hyperinflation and at tge same time reduce government subsidies in cooking oil and fuels. Such move , if it is prolonged is bad for plantations in Indonesia.

What Indonesia is doing is to flood the local market with CPO and thus drive local selling price for cooking oil , biodiesel and all consumer products containing palm oil to very low level. It’s aim to cushion the hardship caused by hyperinflation and reduce government subsidies in cooking oil and fuels. Such move , if it is prolonged is bad for plantations in Indonesia.

With export ban, Malaysian CPO will sell like hot cake. It is definately very good for the 100% Malaysia based plantations like Taann, SOP, SWKplant, cepat, MHC, Bplant .

Every $1,000 increase in CPO price, Cepat's NPAT is estimated to increase by $13-14 mil, equivalent to 4.2 to 4.5 sen per share.
Based on present developments, CPO is likely to average about $6,000 for FY 2022.

Brent crack spread for Apr is $17.80 and May $18.30 which is 5 years high! Hard to go wrong with PetronM.

Following this news, CPO spot will surge pass $7,000. Absolutely good news for Malaysia based plantations. Opportunity to add plantation share may surface on Monday if there is weakness arising from knee jerk reaction from DJ's 981 points plunge.

Brent crack spread Apr $17.80 and May $18.30 seem is at 5 year high ! With re-opening of travel sector, demand for refined petroleum products also high. As such, refinaries like HY and PetronM will do very very well.

I added some at 39sen too.

many small and mid cap plantations counters are trading at well BELOW 10X PE of 2021's earning, eg SOP (7.2x) , Taann (8.6x) , MHC (6.2 x), Cepat (6.9x) , Swkplant (6.4x) etc.
In the likely event of CPO averaging $6,000 pmt for FY2022, the forward PE of the many small and mid cap plantation may just be 4 - 7 X only !
Huge room for plantation share price to surge.

SOP EPS FY2021 was 89.44 sen. At yesterday closing price of $6.47, historic PE based on FY2021 earning is merely 7.2x !
In the likely event of CPO averaging $6,000 pmt for FY2022, SOP's EPS for FY2022 will reach $1.20. Therefore, forward PE based on estimated FY2022 earning is 5.4 x only !!!
There is still huge room for its share price to jump.

The CPO discount to SBO shall attract more buyers who look for cheaper edible oil amid very high food inflation.

Pick up more Masteel at 40sen today.

It was a scary plunge to 68 sen at 4.25pm.

@TheContrarian, in fact I am buying more Masteel .

@TheContrarian, No. I think Bstead is just as good.

Posted by TheContrarian > 55 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, consider swapping your Boustead Holdings for more Mycron?

@kon, I still think LTAT will privatize Bstead Holding to facilitate share transfer of profit making subsidiaries like Bplant, Pharma , Affin etc to come under LTAT directly. Just my view.

Patience is paying off now . It will break $1 soon.

Once it cross 95 sen I will have to decide what to do next.

Posted by TheContrarian > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Why 95 sen?

Good chance to break $7.00 this week!

Hopefully it break 50sen tomorrow!

I am waiting anxiously for it to cross 95sen.

In term of EPS , DY and balance sheet, MHC is more superior than many .

Hi Calvintaneng , what you said about MHC’s land in Telok Anson are swampy and useless is UNTRUE!
You liquidated MHC around $1.08 many months ago was simply because
Mr Chan Kam Leong , a director who hold insignificant amount of share ,was selling down .
MHC’s about 7,600 acres 0f lands are in Durien Sebatang, chankat Jong and hutan melintang are planted and generating revenue . Some of these lands are freehold and with good development value .
The biggest assets of MHC is the investment in cepatwawasan.

I think Q1 2022 EPS from operations will be about 3.5 sen ( Q1 2021 was 0.55 sen only).
Kulai land sales will bring in 14.2 sen/share.
Overall EPS Q1 2022 will be 3.5+14.2 =17.7 sen.
I will be very happy to receive 5 sen 1st interim dividend. Anything more is big bonus.
Explosive earning will come in Q2 when both production volume and CPO price are higher.

TheContrarian, thanks for your view .

Posted by TheContrarian > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I believe Masteel is a good recovery play and improved earnings will eventually take share price beyond 50 sen.