That old senile fellow pandai pusing pusing.

GENERALI SIGNS AGREEMENT IN MALAYSIA TO ACQUIRE MAJORITY STAKE IN AXA AFFIN JOINT VENTURES AND PLANS TO PURCHASE 100% OF MPI GENERALI
22 JUNE 2021 - 07:02

The transactions transform Generali’s activities in Malaysia to become the #2 P&C insurer in the country, in line with its strategy to strengthen its leadership position in high potential markets
Generali to increase its current 49% stake in MPI Generali Insurans Berhad to 100%
Generali to acquire a 70% stake in AXA Affin Life Insurance joint venture (49% from AXA and 21% from Affin) and approximately a 53% stake in AXA Affin General Insurance joint venture (49.99% from AXA and 3% from Affin and minorities)
AXA Affin General Insurance and MPI Generali to be merged following the acquisitions creating one of Malaysia’s leading general insurance operations, with Generali holding a 70% stake

Generali, AXA, Affin Bank and MPHB Capital are working together to obtain the required regulatory approvals. Generali will commence the necessary integration planning to develop an organisation that leverages the skills, experience and expertise of all the staff of the combined business. The expected completion date of the acquisition is in the second quarter of 2022.

Is KYY picking another fight ?

Happy to see some small gain for those I picked up at 45-46sen. Hoping to see good QR to give further boost to steel counters.
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Posted by Johnzhang >Dec 5,2021

I decide to top up at 45-46 sen level and hold it for 6-12 months. I think the selldown of steel counter is overdone. Steel prices is down but NOT out.

Yes. quickly sell. The more the merrier so that I can gradually built a bigger position.

@Plantermen, I am a bit more optimistic than you with regards to average CPO price for 2022. I personally think it will average above $4,000, unless there is the unlikely bumper crops of soya, rapeseed and sunflower seed. I don't see production in Malaysia and Indonesia going higher for next year due to a numbers of constraints.

@airfan99, take another careful read of my post on 10th Dec. Also, you may go to Bplant forum where I have on even date wrote what constitute Cost of Production.
Pls share your "Not so straight" facts and figures if what you have are different . NO use to just say " Not that straight calculation".
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Posted by Airfan 99 >Dec 14,2021
Have you take into consideration of the fertilizer and chemical cost which also up and also the Sarawak government tax. Not that straight forward calculation.

https://newswav.com/A2112_EJ5xMv?s=A_H4qzJzq
This is good news for longer term

It is very good for TSH if the land disposal in Kalimantan can go thru. It's only at heads of agreement stage , no SPA yet. A lot more details and conditions to work out especially the condition on conversion from HGU (right to use for agriculture) to HGB (right to use for building). I think this will be the biggest hurdle to cross, not a easy hurdle.

The overcapacity in glove sector is going to be very serious in undermining the profitability of glove producers for years to come. New producers suffer the most. Traditional producers who aggressively add substantial new capacities will not get return to the capital investment.

Tax money they want , problems face by business people they don’t come in to support.

Gomen bluff with their eyes wide open! May be they are counting the 500,000 jobs left by the foreign workers who never return .

Let me use glove and plantation sector to support my point.

Glove Sector :
IBs had been making many buy calls and assigning much higher TP against the prevailing trading prices of glove counters. I take Topglove who is the industry leader for discussion. The TP range by various IBs and rating over the 1 year period are as below:

@ Jan 21 TP $6.50 - 10.54 / buy or hold
@ Feb 21 TP $7.80 - 10.10 / buy or hold
@ Mac 21 TP $4.85 - 8.14 / buy or hold
@ Apr 21 TP $4.75 - 7.60 / buy or hold
@ May 21 TP $7.60 / buy or hold
@ Jun 21 TP $4.45 -7.60 / buy or hold
@ Jul 21 TP $3.66 - 6.72 / buy or hold
@ Sep 21 TP $2.80 - 5.40 / buy or hold
@ Oct 21 TP $2.60 / buy

The cruel reality is Topglove share price @ 10/12/21 is $2.16 and remain under pressure in the near term due to further erosion of ASP .
Investors who follow the IBs' calls throughout this year are suffering huge losses. How on earth the analysts can be so far behind the curve ?

Plantation Sector:
IBs have been very skeptical about CPO prospect ever since 2020 when CPO staged strong recovery to $3,000 level. IBs' forecasted CPO price (FP) throughout 2020/2021 have always been very biased, negative and substantially lower than the prevailing market prices.
IBs forecasted average CPO price (FP) over the period, their rating and the actual average CPO price (AP)are as below

@Dec 20 FP $2,600 for 2021, neutral , AP $3,620
@Mac 21 FP $2,900/$2,700 for 2021/2022 , neutral, AP $4,401
@Jul 21 FP $2,900/$2,700/$2.700 for 2021/2022/2023, neutral, AP$4,128
@Aug 21 FP $3,700/$2,900/2,800 for 2021/2022/2023, neutral, AP $4,555
@Sep 21 FP $3.700/$2,900/$2,800 for 2021/2022/2013, neutral, AP $4,556
@Oct 21 FP $3.700/$2,800 for 2021/2022 , neutral , AP $5,051

CPO @ 9/12/21 was $5,240 . Avg CPO price YTD is about $4,425

You can see that they are also seriously behind the curve, lack of foresight, lack of knowledge and lack of professionalism.

Whose interest are the IB have in mind ? Certainly not yours and mine!

Future earnings will be under further pressure when all the new capacity and expansion capacity come to the market within the next 12 months. Glove will be a cut throat business for a while. I suspect there is a lot more room for share price correction.

There are all sort of Cost of Production (COP) figures quoted in the media and has caused confusion to investors.
According to what I know, the standard version of COP consistently adopt by all oil palm plantations here and Indonesia are ALL OPERATIONS COST, OVERHEAD, DEPRECIATION AND OTHER RELATED CHARGES . THEY INCLUDE FIELD UPKEEP, FERTILIZER, HARVESTING, TRASPORTATION, LABOUR, DEPRECIATION, MILLING, CESS AND SALES TAX. (Sales tax only applicable to east Malaysia).

Financing (which is capital cost ), Income tax and Windfall tax (which are tax on profit, not on production activities) do not form part of COP.

COP for plantation in East Malaysia is generally higher due to sales tax imposed by state government. COP for plantation in Indonesia is higher by anywhere between RM200 -300 compared to plantation in Malaysia due to overall higher input cost, logistic cost and "the hidden costs". Unit labour cost in Indonesia may be low but productivity is also much lower thus nullifying the advantage

@brianklc, Cost of production for CPO = Cost of production for FFB + Milling charges. That's quite straightforward. The plantation companies only use CPO as the basis for FINANCIAL DISCUSSION as all plantations own mills to process their FFB, though not 100%. Commodity Trading price is for CPO, not FFB.

Smallholders usually talk in term of FFB as they only sell FFB.

There are all sort of Cost of Production (COP) figures quoted in the media and has caused confusion to investors.
According to what I know, the standard version of COP consistently adopt by all oil palm plantations here and Indonesia are ALL OPERATIONS COST, OVERHEAD, DEPRECIATION AND OTHER RELATED CHARGES . THEY INCLUDE FIELD UPKEEP, FERTILIZER, HARVESTING, TRASPORTATION, LABOUR, DEPRECIATION, MILLING, CESS AND SALES TAX. (Sales tax only applicable to east Malaysia).

Financing (which is capital cost ), Income tax and Windfall tax (which are tax on profit, not on production activities) do not form part of COP.

COP for plantation in East Malaysia is generally higher due to sales tax imposed by state government. COP for plantation in Indonesia is higher by anywhere between RM200 -300 compared to plantation in Malaysia due to overall higher input cost, logistic cost and "the hidden costs". Unit labour cost in Indonesia may be low but productivity is also much lower thus nullifying the advantage.

Just for sharing

Bplant's 2020 annual report page 38 (CEO's Review) stated that CPO cost of production for 2020 was $1,649/mt.

@stockraider, may I refer you to Bplant's 2020 annual report page 38 (CEO's Review). It is clearly stated that CPO production cost of $1,649 /mt. Bplant is always rated as one of the less efficient producer.

@Stockraider, could you share how do you get the cost of production of $2,750 and $2,200 as stated by you ? The cost of production the oil palm industry talk about is always the total cost involved in producing FFB plus conversion cost to CPO at ESTATE LEVEL.

Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.

My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.

My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.

My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.

My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

Despite higher cost pressure in 2022, oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

They fail miserably!

The poor performance of Malaysian stock market directly reflect the performance of the recent past and present governments , the PMs and his ministers in particular. Foreign investors have better market to choose from and will give Malaysia’s dysfunction economy and the illiquid market a miss . Local institutions and funds face liquidity crunch and been the net sellers . Retail investors have their plate full and many are licking wounds .
Without a capable government who truly care about national interest, I don’t know how the market can turn around in the future. Sad indeed .

Brent has recovered quite a bit , but not Hibiscus. Bursa is dying….

The whole market is down since Oct with most stock suffer losses. So, what's the difference ?

Danny123, you can dream about it . Btw, any share ever traded at 0.40 cent ?

Good management, consistently good earnings and dividend yield.
It would fetch much higher price if EPF stop the selldown.

@novoice2020, I am totally with you.

My yesterday's post just to highlight the followings :

1. Mid/small cap plantations generally fare better that the big boys.

2. Within Mid/small cap segment, those in good hands (management quality wise), with healthy BS and consistently pay good dividend do well. Those in weak hands and inconsistent in their performance eg Jtiasa and TDM, don't do well.

3. Amid so much market risks coupled with poor sentiment in Malaysian stock market, mid/small cap plantations who are generous in dividend payout (instead of merely earnings) favored by investors (like Inno as opposed to SOP)

4. Big boys' dismal performance is almost the doing of EPF nonstop sell down due to ESG and that affect the over sentiment of plantation sector.

TSH has huge borrowing to repay and sitting on quite some unplanted concession land in Indonesia that require considerable capital outlay. This will limit the company's ability to increase dividend yield in the next few years.

Mid cap Plantations companies that are in strong net cash position and pay consistently good dividend are : Inno, Taann, Swkpltn, HSplant, KMloong and UP. SOP is in such good position, but dividend yield has been disappointing.

SOP are among the few having very strong cash position, except that current dividend rate is disappointing. I am holding on with the hope that dividend rate will improve in near future.

Other plantations with very strong cash position are : Inno, Taann, Swkpltn, HSplant, KMloong and UP. These companies give consistently good dividend yields.

Other plantation companies having strong cash position are Inno, Taann, Hsplant, KMLoong, SOP and UP.

It is one of those plantations with very strong balance sheet and in good financial position to continue paying good dividend in years ahead.

both bring big shame to Malaysia. But still quite a big segment of the rakyat are happy with the shame.

YTD return (i.e. from 4/1/21 to 6/12/21 period) solely based on capital gain (Dividend paid during the period is not considered in the calculation)

KLCI index - 8.83%
CPO + 37.3%

The mid/small cap plantations :
1. Innoplant + 13.79%
2. MHC + 12.82%
3. Taann + 12.16%
4. Bplant + 7.94%
5. SWKpltn + 7.62%
6. THplant + 5.26%
7. HSpltn + 4.97%
8. KMLoong - 4.43%
9. Cepat - 5.80%
10 TSH -6.96%
11 SOP - 12.50%
12 Jtiasa - 33.52%
13 TDM - 34.72%

The big Cap plantations :
1. UP. - 4.14%
2 KLK - 14.91%
3. IOI - 17.61%
4. Simepltn - 24.45%
5. GENP - 31.33%

I leave it to individual to digest and interpret the above numbers.

YTD return (i.e. from 4/1/21 to 6/12/21 period) solely based on capital gain (Dividend paid during the period is not considered in the calculation)

KLCI index - 8.83%
CPO + 37.3%

The mid/small cap plantations :
1. Innoplant + 13.79%
2. MHC + 12.82%
3. Taann + 12.16%
4. Bplant + 7.94%
5. SWKpltn + 7.62%
6. THplant + 5.26%
7. HSpltn + 4.97%
8. KMLoong - 4.43%
9. Cepat - 5.80%
10 TSH -6.96%
11 SOP - 12.50%
12 Jtiasa - 33.52%
13 TDM - 34.72%

The big Cap plantations :
1. UP. - 4.14%
2 KLK - 14.91%
3. IOI - 17.61%
4. Simepltn - 24.45%
5. GENP - 31.33%

I leave it to individual to digest and interpret the above numbers.

YTD return (i.e. from 4/1/21 to 6/12/21 period) solely based on capital gain (Dividend paid during the period is not considered in the calculation)

KLCI index - 8.83%
CPO + 37.3%

The mid/small cap plantations :
1. Innoplant + 13.79%
2. MHC + 12.82%
3. Taann + 12.16%
4. Bplant + 7.94%
5. SWKpltn + 7.62%
6. THplant + 5.26%
7. HSpltn + 4.97%
8. KMLoong - 4.43%
9. Cepat - 5.80%
10 TSH -6.96%
11 SOP - 12.50%
12 Jtiasa - 33.52%
13 TDM - 34.72%

The big Cap plantations :
1. UP. - 4.14%
2 KLK - 14.91%
3. IOI - 17.61%
4. Simepltn - 24.45%
5. GENP - 31.33%

I leave it to individual to digest and interpret the above numbers.

YTD return (i.e. from 4/1/21 to 6/12/21 period) solely based on capital gain (Dividend paid during the period is not considered in the calculation)

KLCI index - 8.83%
CPO + 37.3%

The mid/small cap plantations :
1. Innoplant + 13.79%
2. MHC + 12.82%
3. Taann + 12.16%
4. Bplant + 7.94%
5. SWKpltn + 7.62%
6. THplant + 5.26%
7. HSpltn + 4.97%
8. KMLoong - 4.43%
9. Cepat - 5.80%
10 TSH -6.96%
11 SOP - 12.50%
12 Jtiasa - 33.52%
13 TDM - 34.72%

The big Cap plantations :
1. UP. - 4.14%
2 KLK - 14.91%
3. IOI - 17.61%
4. Simepltn - 24.45%
5. GENP - 31.33%

I leave it to individual to digest and interpret the above numbers.
07/12/2021 7:01 AM

THplant prospective 2021 PE is 5.6x (based on FY2021 EPS of 11.2 sen) which is really not bad and in line with other well managed mid/small cap plantations. However, in term of dividend visibility, BS strength and Management quality, it fall behind many.

I still allocate some money to THplant despite of what I said in the above is simply because THplant appears to be the most likely privatisation candidate in the near future. It has limited freefloat shares.

I wonder on what yardsticks Calvin assigned the marks and ranking ?

My yardsticks based on dividend, PE ,BS strength, and Management quality and my selections are limited to the mid /small cap plantations as follow: Taann, Swkpltn, MHC, Bplant, SOP, Cepat and KimLoong

THplant is doing fine with earnings (prospective 2021 PE of 5.6x) but poor in most other areas. I put in some money in it because it seem to me the most likely privatisation candidate in the very near future. Thplant has limited freefloat shares.

Due to limited capital, I don't look at the big boys who will continue to be subjected to EPF selldown.

The most used edible oil (for food, biofuel, industrial ) are in this order :
1. palm oil, 2. Soyoil, 3. Rapeseed, and 4. sunflowerseed oil.
Good to Keep an eye on the supply and price movement of them.
Due to very tight supply of palm oil into next year, the price difference between palm oil and the others have narrowed significantly now. Palm oil used to be at huge price discount to others.

The problem is not about the stock , it is about the dying Malaysian stock market that both local institutions and foreign investors deserting. Without sufficient buying interest, the price is drifting lower and lower.

@kamcheonghui, I am just a very ordinary investor. I can not tell if Hiapteck will fall further to below 45 sen. This is because price for the best stock is also at the mercy of the broader market sentiment which unfortunately is very poor for Bursa . Since I am taking at least 6-12 months view I am therefore not too concerned of possibly further price correction , especially buying in at 45 -46 sen. Afterall, no one has the crystal ball to know the next price !

When to buy is individual’s choice. There are investors who buy or sell before the event and some wait for the event to happen first. What is certain is you will end up paying a lot more when the company turn in profit.

Most plantation companies listed in Bursa are seriously undervalued by their mark-to-market asset values, earning prospect and dividend yields.

Without real understanding of the supply/demand dynamics for the oil and fats market, many critics argued that current palm oil price (RM5,000+) is unsustainable. The same critics voiced same argument when CPO price was at RM3,000+ more than a year ago . So what is new?

Down to earth investors shall expect CPO price uncertainty in the next 1-2 years which largely hinge on demand growth vs supply growth. Nobody can possibly pinpoint the numbers into the future, just like how miserably wrong the critics/analysts were in the past one year.

Why should critics be alarmingly negative EVEN IF CPO price correct down to $4,000 (ie 20+ % from today's level}? I am not concern at all. The average realized CPO price for Q1 to Q3 2021 for Bplant was $4,072, THplant $3,478, SOP $4,263, MHC $4,167, Cepat $4,149. At these avg realized prices, these companies already making record earnings.

I am bullish that average CPO price for 2022 will stay above $4,000/-

On supply side :
(1) There will be minimum production growth from Malaysia and Indonesia in 2022 due to continuing labor constraint (Malaysia), lower fertilizer application in 2018/19 when CPO price was low, lower fertilizer application in 2020/21 due to supply/application constraint caused by lockdowns and acute labour shortage, poor upkeep of fields, minimum new planting and replanting in past 3-4 years etc.

(2). Relentless attack from NGOs, ESG pressure, 3 years new planting moratorium (Sept 2018 to sept 2021) in Indonesia, zero expansion in Malaysia since 2017 , delayed replanting activities etc, not to mention climate havoc, are going to seriously limit production growth for the next few years.

On the demand side,
(1). Strong demand recovery expected in 2022 due to minimum lockdowns, low inventory level in importing countries, demand for biofuels (especially Indonesia B30 mandate) , increasing usage of oleochemicals etc.

(2). Global palm oil consumption growth from 2011 to 2020 is averaging 5% annually. I think consumption growth rate shall resume from 2022 onwards with covid's impact subsiding

Where are we going to get 5% production growth (ie 3.7 to 4.0 mil MT of increase per year ) to match the demand growth in the next few years? Will there be significantly higher production of other edible oils (soya, reepseed, sunflower, canola etc) to replace palm oil ?

It's a million dollar question. I think there is reason why CPO price shot up significantly above the previous high.

Just sharing my thought.

I think WHO has just said that it is increasing convinced that the Omicron variant is "mild" and has so far not led to increase of death rates anywhere. Therefore Omicron is not more lethal than Delta.