There is no God in i3 forum. If anyone is looking for God-like forecasts and predictions, this is not the place.

Sslee, nobody will prove it to you. You want to know you need to join the group. Unfortunately, DK has quit i3 forum totally. You need to ask Aseng (the other admin) to bring you in.

In DK private group, we are required to speak with facts and data only.

"Practice of fear mongering is strictly prohibited. Statements must be supported by credible arguments failing which will lead to removal from the group. Thank you."

Where is your facts and data ?

Sslee Dear Aseng do not fall in love with any stock.
By the way an IRR of 12% will never get you NPV of Jaks using DCF is 3 billion X RM 1.50.

I did not joint any private chat group when the moderator only allowed a single views. This is more like a religion chat group, because no facts and data required only thing required is beleiving.
26/10/2021 8:05 AM

----------------------
Since you did not join any private chat group, how do you know that they are like religion chat group ??

So long as SD does not consider any negative findings by EY as "factual", there is no need to announce ????

Just think, is it so difficult to verify if the accounts are valid ?

As the SIR is verifying the identity of 11 customers and suppliers, a negative outcome means SD is falsifying trading accounts. This has very serious implications. The financial statements are no longer true and fair.

There is no need for argument here on the outcomes of the SIR because the share will remain suspended until after the SIR is released to the public. The point for argument is whether the price will go up or tank if the SIR is negative. Anyone believe the price will still go up if the SIR is negative ? If so, Why ?

I m 100% sure that if the SIR is positive, SD will limit up on opening for trading. But what if the SIR is negative ??

i m confused. Those who are positive on SD believe that the SIR has positive outcomes ? Or they believe that the price of SD will go up even if the outcomes of the SIR is negative ?

Can SD challenge the SIR ?

If SIR is negative, the auditors will qualify the financial statements and SD will face immediate credit crunch. All credit facilities will be frozen and bond holders will demand immediate redemption. Can SD still survive ??

If talking here can change the outcome of the SIR, Karim will be here 24 hours a day non stop.

The stock is suspended until the SIR is published. Whatever talking here is useless. IBs will dictate the fate of SD upon trading. Sweet talks or doom talks all meaningless now. Can't do anything from now on. Your fate is decided by the IBs !!

SIR made known to independent directors on 21/10 and SD's price did not go up but down before it was suspended !!

Think logically .....

If I have knowledge of the SIR.......

If it is good news, I will not hesitate to buy because I know the stock will limit up when the SIR is made public.

If it is bad news, there are few possibilities,

1) I can't do anything because I don't own any shares to sell.
2) I won't sell because I do not know the financial impact because the SIR does not quantify the impact.
3) I think the price is already low enough and have already reflected all the bad news.
4) I have lose so much that I m unwilling to cut loss.
5) The boss is still buying, so it can't be any worst. So, I stay with the boss.

And so on and so on.

The fact is that the SIR was ready on 21/10, but the price did not move up.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/recent-coal-price-fluctuations-wont-hit-vietnam-power-plant-profits-says-jaks-resources-ceo

Aseng, Jaks press release has caused severe brain shock to the shorters resulting in brain damage, hence cannot argue sensibly anymore.

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=119335&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Ha ha, DK deleted his articles because he will not be able to defend them as he has quit i3 and yet people are still posting "deleted" articles ??? Everyone here cannot live without DK. lol !!

Just find out whether Mong Duong 2, JHDP and Vinh Tan 1 are all currently shut down !

(The following is shared here with DK's permission)
Dear Just88,
I refer to your email on the question regarding the impact of coal prices on JHDP, my understanding of the coal pass through mechanism is such that the power plant operator is given an agreed target heat rate to generate each Kwh of electricity. The power plant has to operate within the targeted heat rate in order to generate energy profit through energy payment.

Eg : Agreed heat rate = 9500BTU / Kwh

Assuming the average price of the coal purchased by JHDP during a particular billing period is USD100 per ton and each ton of coal is tested to have 20m BTU. Hence, the cost of each BTU is USD100/20m = USD0.000005 for this billing period. Therefore, agreed heat rate of 9500BTU/Kwh means that Vietnam EVN will pay JHDP USD0.0475 per Kwh electricity generated (USD0.000005 x 9500) during this billing period. If JHDP is able to achieve lower heat rate of say 9000btu/kwh, it is able to make USD0.0025 per Kwh electricity generated (500btu x 0.000005).

Therefore, higher coal prices mean higher energy profit due to higher price per BTU. This is provided the power plant is able to achieve the targeted plant efficiency. Ie achieving lower than agreed heat rate in generating electricity.

I hope the above clarifies.

Thank you
DK

If you worry this worry that too much, you will miss the rally like gloves stocks. Right now the cards on the table favour steel producers and current valuations are super cheap. You should double your bet when you have a pair of "A", you cannot fear too much and miss the opportunity. There is no guaranteed win in Bursa, you place your bets when the odds of winning is high. Otherwise, place your money in FD.

DK believes that high coal price actually benefits JHDP. Can you believe that ! I do as he has explained that clearly to his group.

Philip, you should know that the conclusion was prior to the last right issue when the NOSH was much smaller. You should read the content to know that the profit forecast by DK was RM190m and EPS should be RM0.093 based on current NOSH of 2.04b shares.

>>>>>>>
Philip ( buy what you understand) But still, I will not buy based on dk conclusion on this

>>>>>>>>

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

Philip, 300m is free cash flow not profit.

DK was brave enough to go against management guidance of RM80m profit. All of you called him silly. Is he right ?

Do you know that profit is different from free cash flow ? You don't use profit but free cash flow in your DCF calculation. DK's peer comparison forecast RM190m profit and RM300m free cash flow. Please do your homework.

Thank you. Mr OTB. What about the risk of china resuming export of steel as well as the collapse of evergrande which may dampen the demand of steel ?

You are right, Aseng

>>>>>
Aseng just88,

put it in a very straightforward manner , you mean Phillip is not aware that the revenue of the group does not include the revenue of the associate . that is why he feel the figure very funny .am I right ?
06/10/2021 2:15 PM

Dear Mr OTB, you have touched on the positive aspects of Hiaptek. Maybe you could also highlight the potential risk factors surrounding Hiaptek. Thanks

philip, Management talking about revenue at associate company level lah. Revenue cannot take up in Jaks' account. Can only show profit sharing. I think Sslee can explain better.

>>>>
Philip ( buy what you understand) How is it misunderstood when the results from qr versus the stories told by everyone is at odds?

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/11/641387/jakss-jv-vietnam-genera...

This is what everyone was told.

It is now q3 2021, coming to q4 2021.

KUALA LUMPUR: Jaks Resources Bhd believes that its joint-venture (JV) company in Vietnam can generate between RM2.4 billion and RM2.8 billion annual revenue, from the first quarter (Q1) of 2021.

The bullish forecast is due to Jaks Pacific Power Ltd's coal-fired power plant there.

Jaks Pacific, a 30:70 per cent JV between Jaks Resources and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Corporation, is the owner of Jaks Hai Duong power plant (Hai Duong) with 1,200 megawatts capacity.

This is what was said.

Despite the lower revenue, the Group recorded a profit before tax of RM23.9 million
in the current year second quarter as compared to a loss before tax of RM8.4 million
in the preceding year’s corresponding quarter. The turnaround to profitability was
mainly due to the share of 30% profit in JAKS Hai Duong Power Company Limited
(“JHDP”) of RM37.5 million following the commencement of commercial operation
(“COD”).

I'm sure someone can help to explain the differences between qr reported results and the marketing results prior to pp from jaks management.

Can anyone explain the discrepancy?

Jaks is the most misunderstood stock in Bursa. How many actually know that JHDP in actual fact benefits from higher coal prices ???

The Q2 results showed profit sharing from JHDP was RM37.5m which works out to be RM150m per annum. This results is close to projection by DK. At least much better than those who projected less than RM80m or even loss by John choivo. Many naysayers were skeptical about JHDP which is now proven to be a cash cow for Jaks, something DK kept trying to tell everyone.

CEEIC already given USD6m bank guarantee to Toyoven

I don't see any reason why they will not sign the definitive agreement.

Pang72, obviously you got no friends in DK group !

firehawk Heard some of the fundamental investors took profit @7x - 8x, as advised by their sifu. Maybe
now they will buy back to wait for 1.10 .....
22/07/2021 6:15 AM

------------------
You must have friends in DK group !

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Marina+Plaza+Building/@24.4886195,54.3645941,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipPGZ6TgPRqTZHwpf5VzMLF5DOgNVd0j0nMAsPAA!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPGZ6TgPRqTZHwpf5VzMLF5DOgNVd0j0nMAsPAA%3Dw203-h360-k-no!7i2592!8i4608!4m12!1m6!3m5!1s0x0:0xafa974e54f65be57!2sMarina+Plaza+Building!8m2!3d24.4886077!4d54.3645547!3m4!1s0x3e5e67fd2c988ee3:0xafa974e54f65be57!8m2!3d24.4886077!4d54.3645547?hl=en

Now the best outcome SD can hope is for KPMG to resign and that is the sole purpose of the legal action.

You can be wrong but still smart if you bet with good reasons. But to bet with "time will prove if we are right or wrong" is not being smart. Someone without credible arguments always say "Lets see !". This is like saying "Lets see who is lucky !"

It is not about Who is right here. It is about investing in the right way. Winning through excessive gambling is not the right method for newbies to learn. Continue down this path will surely end up in hell with just one wrong bet. You can be right 9 out of 10 times but die in just 1 time.

What philip tried to say is "It is your choice to be a dumb dog that never want to learn or a smart dog that failed but keep trying to learn something everyday"

It is quite a common thing

Due to contract variation ?

Philip ( buy what you understand) Just88, since you are a member of DK private group and he is in my telegram as well I believe, why don't you tell me how your dayang and jaks has worked out? Yes?
03/06/2021 9:08 AM

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dk66, 10:49 AM
Just88, I did not join any telegram group. I m retiring from active investment after August so I won't be joining any group.
-------------------

DK is not in your telegram group. By the way, I took profit on Jaks when DK's advised to protect profit when Jaks was trading at 0.80. And I did not buy Dayang.

How to buy at 0.795 when the price was 0.89 at 9.53am, and how to sell at 0.895 when the price closed at 0.825? How creative to make 12.5% (200k) in 1 day on 2 millions shares.

-------------------------------
Philip ( buy what you understand) bought 3m shares of serbadk at 0.795. huge discount month. waiting for august independent report. looks like the result of the saturday meeting seems good enough for epf and kwsp so far. 521 vs 521W street indeed.
01/06/2021 9:53 AM


Philip ( buy what you understand) Sold some serbadk shares at 0.895 average price, and bought serbadk bonds at 41, second tranche at 32.
03/06/2021 7:07 AM

From an ex-auditor;

"My opinion on Serbak : The issues raised by KPMG are not actually only raised to the management on 3 May 2021. The date represents the official date to which the issues were brought to Serbak after months of deliberation but still remain unacceptable by KPMG. These audits were carried out as interim audit where the emphasis of the audit is on the authenticity of the transactions instead of the accounts itself. Audit procedures were carried out to verify the identities of the customers and suppliers and the nature of the underlying transactions. These procedures were normally carried out 3 months before year end account closing date. Therefore, the company and the auditors have been working on these irregularities found by the auditors for more than 6 months but unable to resolve the matters to the satisfaction of the auditors. From the company's announcement, it seems to most people that auditors are unreasonable in solving the matters but not to me. Auditors are generally tolerable and acceptable to explanations by the management but why aren't they towards Serbak ? As mentioned, KPMG have been its auditors since 2013, so the auditors is well aware of the businesses of Serbak. If they are not comfortable now, it only means that the risk involved is too big for them to tolerate now. Remember Transmile's auditors only raised the red flag after 3 years of audit. Personally, I agree with the irregularities found by the auditors and I found management responses hard to swallow."

From an ex-auditor;

"My opinion on Serbak : The issues raised by KPMG are not actually only raised to the management on 3 May 2021. The date represents the official date to which the issues were brought to Serbak after months of deliberation but still remain unacceptable by KPMG. These audits were carried out as interim audit where the emphasis of the audit is on the authenticity of the transactions instead of the accounts itself. Audit procedures were carried out to verify the identities of the customers and suppliers and the nature of the underlying transactions. These procedures were normally carried out 3 months before year end account closing date. Therefore, the company and the auditors have been working on these irregularities found by the auditors for more than 6 months but unable to resolve the matters to the satisfaction of the auditors. From the company's announcement, it seems to most people that auditors are unreasonable in solving the matters but not to me. Auditors are generally tolerable and acceptable to explanations by the management but why aren't they towards Serbak ? As mentioned, KPMG have been its auditors since 2013, so the auditors is well aware of the businesses of Serbak. If they are not comfortable now, it only means that the risk involved is too big for them to tolerate now. Remember Transmile's auditors only raised the red flag after 3 years of audit. Personally, I agree with the irregularities found by the auditors and I found management responses hard to swallow."

The best outcome now is that Karim was not involved and the amount involved is not material. However, this is also irrelevant now as there will not be any clarification until the independent report is done. Karim should have done better to disclose the details to limit the fear. With sufficient details the price can find support somewhere.