After 5 years, Kretam's FFB production todate Sept in 2022 is the same as 2018, where's the upside?

To begin with, Inari seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 16%. This probably goes some way in explaining Inari's moderate 9.0% growth over the past five years amongst other factors.

Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

19 May 2022
....it does look like Inari has some positive aspects. Especially the growth in earnings which was backed by an impressive ROE. Still, the high ROE could have been even more beneficial to investors if it reinvest more of its cash n profits..... the current reinvestment rate appears to be negligible. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum.

RSS no longer interested in Inari?

Apple earnings beat estimates... Revenue up 9% for 1st qtr 2022.
Follow the earnings trail ...

EPF has increased it stake by 60 M shrs since Jan this year.
What's brewing?

Managing plantation is about people, not palms.

With CPO price at above RM5000, this continues to be a disappointing plantation company, dragged down by its Indonesian operations. Companies that do not have oil refineries in Indonsia will always lose out because CPO price in Indonesia is some RM1000 lower than that in Malaysia. In general, the crop yield of its plantations in Malaysia is so much lower compared to UP, KLK, IOI, HSP, etc. Weakness is in it harvesting operations, not agronomy....

Nasdaq, Apple & Broadcom are just about 10% lower than its ATH (all-time-high).

And Malaysian OSAT players (MPI, Inari, Frontkn & Unisem) are more than 20% lower than its ATH.

Malaysians tak boleh, kah? Selalu tidur sahaja....

FCPO prices are in backwardation (where future prices are lower than current spot). This is considered a bearish sign i.e. market participants are not willing to pay more.

Ramadan starts in April. Both Malaysia n Indonesia will look after their voters with subsidised cooking oil prices. Tax n levy by both govts will crimp CPO exports.

In short, CPO prices will likely to settle to RM 4800 pmt eventually........

Apple supplier Foxconn partially resumes production at ‘closed-loop’ Shenzhen campuses....

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3170658/apple-supplier-foxconn-partially-resumes-production-closed-loop?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

The world's largest iPhone factory, operated by Foxconn Technology Group in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou, has kept up with its production schedule, despite a jump in new Covid-19 cases...

Apple had 51 suppliers based in China and Hong Kong in 2020, according to a Nikkei Asia analysis of the annual Apple supplier list released last week.3 Jun 2021.

Apple uses contract manufacturers to produce its devices in China. For example, Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron employ hundreds of thousands of workers to assemble Apple devices in China.

Apple has tried to expand its chain of contracted manufacturers to other Asian countries such as India as part of efforts to diversify.

News about Agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine?
Video Conference between the 2 Presidents on today ?
Agreement to sign next week?
Withdrawal of Russian troops in 3 mths?
Prices of crude oil and palm oil have reached inflection point?
No more resource scarcity?


Time to revise your bets

Looking forward, your plantation costs will be going up and your crop yields will be going down.

Hope you do not start betting on CPO futures where they give you vouchers & free gifts - be wary!

If everyone on here is freaking out about high oil prices, wait until they see potash fertilizer prices.
#Fertilizer prices are reacting sharply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the implications begin to settle in. #Urea, #ammonia, #phosphates and #potash have charged upwards as already-tight markets face the prospect of more dramatic supply restrictions.
High Fertilizer prices will squeeze the margins of planters.
Never mind the lower margins. What will happen when imports of potash from Russia have stopped?
Fertiliser shortages may be the biggest issue we face from this Ukraine crisis.
China has already curbed fertiliser exports (urea, phosphates & potash) last year.
Canada's saskatchewan potash will likely be all absorbed by the US.
Maybe last week the potash (MOP) prices was RM2500 pmt, try to ask for quote next week (RM 4000 pmt).

Whatever it is, China is the main beneficiary from the Ukraine Crisis where it gets the oil, gas, fertilisers, wheat, palladium, aluminium, etc.... all at discounted prices and paid in CNY! Go buy some China stocks - CNPC, UnionPay, SinoFert, etc.

On oil palm plantations,
Prices have peaked in 1st qtr of year.
Production are higher in 2nd & 4th qtrs of year.
Fer
Fertilisers are the largest cost factor and input to plantations.
Potash prices has tripled since Dec 2021.
Potash fertilisers are the main input & highest cost factor for crop yields.
Russian (3rd) & Belarus(2nd) produce more potash than Canada(1st).

Make your bets whether earnings in plantations will grow further...

Who has the contract to supply RF chips to Apple? Broadcom.
Who is Inari's best customer and initial startup investor? Broadcom.
Where is Broadcom original HQ location? Singapore.
Which country that Inari mainly export to? Singapore

Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) largest holding in value is APPLE Inc.
What is Apple main source of revenue? iPhones.
What is Inari main source of revenue? RF chips for iPhones.

Zelensky Leads the Defense of Ukraine with His Voice.
At the most consequential hour in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a comedian has assumed the role of Winston Churchill.

Dnex 2Q results - why is PBT for Anasuria only RM 12M (40% shr) when Hibiscus gets RM28M (50% shr)? Volume is shared and oil price is up $10/bbl.

Nikita Khrushchev's father was an Ukrainian. Khrushchev was born in Kalinovka, some 11 km from the border of Ukraine. Khrushchev spent some 10 years governing and reconstructing Ukraine after World War II where 1 in 6 Ukraininans died during the war. After 80 yrs, the same cycle is repeated...

EU & US sanctioned Iran oil exports over disagreement with Iran's uranium enrichment programs years ago. Now, EU & US disagreed with Russia over Ukraine, so why no sanctions against Russia's oil exports?

Half-hearted sanctions from Half-Hearted leaders

Why US says it's a new World Order by Russia & China? What is Joe's endgame?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-says-china-and-russia-seek-profoundly-illiberal-world-order-2515996

EU & US sanctions Iran oil exports over disagreement with Iran's uranium enrichment programs years ago. Now EU & US disagreed with Russia over Ukraine, so why no sanctions against Russia's oil exports?

The Big Picture : Inari --> Broadcom --> Apple 5G

Apple is in a nice position to take advantage of this secular growth. The company controlled 17.4% of the global smartphone market last year per IDC's estimates, up from 15.9% in 2020. Apple's market share growth last year was a result of the company's dominant position in the 5G smartphone market. That's good news for the company, as 5G smartphone adoption is expected to increase in the coming years.

Apple smartphone is the dominant player in China and India. Apple's growth in the smartphone market in China grew 79% QoQ in 4Q2021.

First Half of Year results FY22 vs FY21 :-

EPS increased by 20% (5.89 sen vs 4.89 sen)
Div increased by 24% (5.6 sen vs 4.5 sen)
Margin increased by14% (25% vs 22%)

Hibiscus Anasuria 2Q22 (end Dec 2021) PAT RM17M - just 5 M above prev qtr (end Sep 2021).
Riser component to Anasuria FPSO still not fixed.

Penang's Tan Hock Eng (Broadcom CEO) will continue to look after the Penang IT workers and IT factories. As long as Inari Amertron stays in Penang Island, no conflict should matter...

Wafer foundries need top-notched equipment that are not easy to source or maintain. Examples of wafer fabrication equipment are oxidation systems, epitaxial reactors, diffusion systems, ion implantation equipment, physical vapor deposition systems, chemical vapor deposition systems, photolithography equipment, and etching equipmen

Wafer foundry vs OSAT vs ATE.
Which will be more successful in the semiconductor value chain?

The indicators are below for you to score :-
labour cost, labour skill, cheap & reliable electricity, ICT ecosystem, low factory cost, macroeconomic stability & cross border regional free trade.

RSS has reduced its stake by 1M shrs over the past week.
Since it's still there on the stake, maybe we shud roast it slowly like in Dnex

What happened to Bob, Trevor and RSS?
RSS vanished or vapourised?

Malaysia's strength in the semiconductor industry is in its HUMAN CAPITAL. As such any production lines that involved assembly n testing can survive (as it has been for the past 50 years).

Each US$10 increase in Brent oil is only translated to an extra RM 11M per qtr. for Ping.
Brent oil is not sustainable at above US$90/bbl, but only on fear of war between US/EU and Russia. This is unlikely to happen as no ukrainians are moving, relocating or emigrating to Romania or Poland.

Wafer foundries need top-notched equipment that are not easy to source, maintain, update or replace. You must have deep pockets. Probably, only Taiwan and China are able to thrive in the wafer foundries industry with its high tech engineers and scientists.

So, Inari vs Dnex, make your guess who have more potential earnings.
Besides, while you hold and wait, you are rewarded with dividends every qtr.

Now that you know how to run a wafer foundry efficiently....

SilTerra acquired last Feb for RM273 M (Dnex 60% or RM163.8 M).
Now, Dnex to inject RM 645 M to increase by only 20%?
A good payback for the RM645 M capex?
What about the option of building a new wafer foundry in India using their funds and your tech?

Oct 2016 the Edge
Pantech Group Holdings Bhd has proposed a one-for-five bonus issue, a one-for-ten bonus warrant issue and an employee share option scheme (ESOS).

The steel products manufacturer said the bonus issue entails 138.09 million shares of 20 sen each, enlarging its share base to 829.38 million, which will rise further to 988.18 million if the bonus warrants and ESOS are fully exercised.

At 988 M total shrs issued, this 12% dilution will likely affect the shr price

Constrained production troubles at the Hibiscus Petroleum Anasuria FPSO are expected to continue well into 2022.

The Malaysia-headquartered operator said a “critical component” of its flagship UK production asset malfunctioned in April/May during turnaround season this year, which is yet to be repaired.

Hibiscus said engineering and procurement activities are being “fast-tracked” to replace the component, but until then the impact will be lower production rates from the Anasuria FPSO.

The issue is expected to be rectified in the third quarter of the 2022 financial calendar.

“Until the failed component is returned to service, we anticipate that there will be an impact on calendar year 2022 offtake volumes and OPEX per boe”, Hibiscus said in a statement.

Brent oil has dropped to $86/bbl from $88/bbl.
Demand destruction is due to high prices.

Russian operatives undergoing training in urban warfare i.e street fighting.
Still no sellers in oil futures?
Sabah & Sarawak still no flood preparations for 1 Feb's high tide

Russian invasion of Ukraine “may be imminent” warns White House - BBC News
Jan 19, 2022... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=di_qFlayUZU

Keep your oil shares

BrentOil price hit US$90 per barrel
Keeping you informed since you only know politics

ANKARA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's state pipeline operator Botas said on Tuesday that it cut oil flow at the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline (Iraq2Turkey) following an explosion near the southeastern province of Kahramanmaras.

Today, we look at Dnex as an oil producer.
Next week, we can look at it as a wafer produccer.
Whatever it is, as long as it's not flying airplanes or transporting goods/people n also not using forced labour.

BREAKING: Oil price hits $88 a barrel — first time since 2014.
While everyone agrees that oil demand>supply, the reason that prices are going up is simply that there are no sellers left in futures market.

the RSSs have been paring their short position in Dnex because they know triple digits are coming after it hit the next lower low.

This year could lay the foundation for "a far more vibrant economic environment" as COVID transition from a pandemic to an endemic disease ---- prepare for the vibrant cycle.

Another 13.88M shrs to burn

RSS's Oct'21 bet on Dnex is getting more headwinds tomoro.
Let's watch the fire

Over the past few days, RSS has backed off from Dnex reducing their postions from 20M to 14M. It's a significant change in direction when the odds are against them, so they rather make more bets on Airasia.
With the tailwind behind you, sure can fly faster!

while the some Malaysians still mired in delusions and denials ......

Dnex CEO has confirmed.
SilTerra has morphed to become a profitable entity.
1. It was a timely acquisition
2. the increase in average selling prices (ASPs) of semiconductor wafer
3. the increase in shipment volumes of wafers
4. the cost and product mix optimisation of wafer chips
5. the production capacity of SilTerra is now fully utilised
6. this provides greater economies of scale and cost efficiency
7. the code of ethics installed with some top Mgt replaced on misconduct

Next step - Capacity Expansion!
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/dnex-discussions-foxconn-cgp-silterra-capacity-expansion