TQVM Mr Tan for updating the list.

Noticed that for some of the participants, their portfolios are not updated properly.
Example:
a. for soojinhou: he didn't update dividends received for Jaycorp, SAM, Canone
b. for RosmahMansur: he didn't update dividends received for KESM, Chinwel, Canone,Superln
c. for alexchua: he didn't update dividends received for VS, Homer, Prlexus, Scicom, Inari, Pestech
Should they be given a chance to update their portfolios latest by end of 31 Dec to show a more fairer result?

Hi Mr Tan. I would like to take part in the 2017 stock pick contest.

I have updated all the dividends and bonus issue that I'm entitled for the 2016 stock pick contest already. Please do take a look if everything is okay. Thanks.

Done updating all dividends and bonus issue. Took a long time >_<

hmmm have been trying to post comments to add dividends here. but can't seem to do it.

Nicely said Mat Cendana! Thumbs up.

Hi Icon, what happened to your AirAsia (3) article?

Hi Icon, just wondering shouldn't you also consider the forex impact from the Balance Sheet perspective as well - unrealised forex and forex translation?

Cephasyu. It was a pleasure reading your write-up. Nicely written with good informative pictures, graphs, comparisons and appendices. Please keep up the good work. Would like to see more of your write-ups which is really refreshing and enjoyable to read.

The following are my 2 cents opinion:
1. What do you think of the prospects of Padini venturing into the online business and how does this contribute to Group's topline and bottomline? Do you see this as an opportunity or a weakness versus existing competitors who are in that field?
2. What is the contribution to the Group's topline and bottomline for foreign sales transactions and how does the fluctuation in forex affect the Group?
3. On the comment for Price Control and Anti-Profiteering, I don't think this is relevant or even applicable to the Group. They are not in a position to raise their selling price significantly especially given a tonne of competition from both online and offline. Hence, they are sticking to their strategy/niche which has been clearly articulated in your write-up.
4. It would be good if you can show some information or graphs and comparisons from the cashflow perspective, especially on FCF and how well the funds have been used for working capital, organic growth/expansion and for dividend payouts to the shareholders.

Normal for bosses to reply some emails using their personal email. He probably didn't think much of risk mgmt and on whether he could talk more than he should since the shareholders and Bursa are probably not informed of this info as well.

Desa20201956, do you have ICAEW or CFA qualifacations? You do know that everyone is born different and unique in their own way. And not everyone is suitable to take up those courses u keep on advocating. Why do you assume a 17 year old Malaysian kid doesn't know which course they want to take? U will be surprised a lot of them are way more matured that what you think.

dei cipet. u got google yourself first before saying bo? Wake up plz.

Seriously, what's the purpose of this article? Why do you want to discourage the new generation from being who they want to be? If they have the ambition to be a Doctor, Engineer, Lawyer, Pharmacists or whatever occupation it may be, LET THEM DECIDE for themselves! IT IS THEIR FUTURE, NOT YOURS! Don't discourage the new generation to achieve their dreams and to reach out for the stars. Whether they are happy or satisfied in the end, it is for them to decide. Why limit or restrict people to what you think is a respectable and good pay job. Please encourage them to do better and go all out to accomplish their dreams. Spare them the realistic nonsense, it is for them to decide their own fate and destiny. My 2 cents.

What in the world does Boh Chow C mean? I know Boh Chai C though.

Your write-up is recycled based on your previous writings. But nevertheless thank you Mr Chong. It is a timely reminder for everyone especially since there has been a lot of new write-ups and perceptions on what constitutes a value trader and value investor. There are too many gungho people still buying expensive stocks in hopes for the prices to get higher and too many aiming for penny stocks or warrants to make a quick buck. Many punting on cyclical stocks advocating those are a “sure win” in the long term.

On WB emphasizing a lot on MoS may not be entirely true, especially with Charlie Munger encouraging him to buy stocks at their fair value like Coca Cola and others. They knew of the future potential of this stocks and the qualitative moats available which cannot be easily replicated. No fundamental ratios or even valuations will be able to detect or indicate such things especially since they are subjective in nature.

If everything is fully dependent on MoS or even a price being lower than the IV to be attractive, there will be a lot of opportunities foregone and we will not discover similar investments like what WB and CM did.

Thanks paperplane2016 for helping to compile the latest results! Good job.

Hi Mr Ooi,

If you don't mind, can you please share all your methods of computing the IV? I believe you are using about 5 to 7 methods. The template that you have given earlier on only shows one method.

Thanks.

Good to have all the top performers in 2015 back in action. This time round, I think the competition will be crazy with so many participants + self managed funds involved. Should be fun =)

OMG.. baru 2 and a half trading days already start to tally the results. Super gungho.

In my opinion... OTB is a hybrid of value trader and value investor. He goes for uptrending stocks that have good valuations and have more potential upside. His method is quite effective as those counters (most of them), are also being monitored and pushed by the insiders and funds. He doesn't need to wait for a long time to make a landslide or tsunami sort of killing in the stockmarket (e.g targeting for the lowest price). He can just ride the wave and make whatever % there is (e.g min 20% to multiple baggers) at any point of the stock market cycle.

Hi Mr Tan,
My 2016 stock picks are as follows:
1ARANK 10%
2 BPPLAS 10%
3 SCABLE 10%
4 POHUAT 10%
5 GHLSYS 10%
6 MPAY 10%
7 NTPM 10%
8 MITRA 10%
9 SOLUTN 10%
10 VS 10%

Mr Chong, just ignore the noise and continue writing and educating people. Hope to see more "new" materials from you.

Hi Mr Tan. I want to take part in the stock pick contest. Do let me know if I'm doing anything wrong with the Portfolio thingy. First time setting up one. So a bit clueless on whether I'm doing it right or wrong. For the stocks selection and weightage %, I have to update myself or should post here on 31 Dec at 5 p.m?

If the Company's sales and profit margin is reallllyyyy super good... then perhaps the impact from the impairment/writedown will be negated... meaning there must be a higher EPS for this quarter versus previous quarter.

Nothing wrong.... the compensation should consider latest MV for replacement of the assets + allowances and other cost incurred during period of claim to pay-out. I expect this qtr results to be hit with either the impairment or write-off first. Then next qtr(s) to be reflect gain and proceeds from compensation. But everyone seems to be very confident that the impact is immaterial and the share price keeps on flying. So let's see what's the final result.

Do bear in mind, the funds received will be reflected in later qtrly reports. Not, in the report that we are expecting this week.

Hi Mr Tan. I would like to take part in this competition.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/53664.jsp

You didn't mention partial selling @ taking partial profit first. Selling can also be FIFO, LIFO or using collective average quantity to sell. Can also consider topping up your holdings then consider selling by batches.

Even if LME is going down... don't forget USD rate is going up. So overall, the margins will still be affected. Don't think it is in LBALUM's interest to keep stocks. They will need to extrude and sell the stocks a.s.a.p or else they will be affected badly from cashflow point of view. I also don't think they buy China aluminium billets. They definitely will buy those of higher quality.

Don't think there is any issue on the borrowings. A-Rank has the funds and their operations is solid enough to generate the cash to pay off the borrowings.

Sad to see people talking about ROE when they have no clue of the proper definition of paid up capital. And you still want people to join your super group? Please learn more first...

Overall good buy % today. Hopefully the share price exceeds 70c by end of 2015 and reaches close to RM1 by next year. Fingers crossed. Need the funds to come in to have more interest in this counter.

I don't understand why everyone is still quite gungho with this stock even when it is quite clear that the earnings for the upcoming results is going to be badly affected from the fire incident and there will be higher operating cost incurred to continue the operations as normal.

i wonder if this time can break past 70c. Now that would be really interesting.

sharktank the next superstar in kitchen cabinet system provider. waiting their new showroom opening and i will ask them to custom made one for my kitchen.
09/12/2015 15:17

Hi Sharktank, which showroom are you referring to? At Beranang or JB?

Arank is a good fundamental stock. Decent growth too.

Anyone attended their AGM today? Any good news from the Chairman and MD?

Sounds more like a KO combo to me.

TO: Probability
Just my opinion.

1. In the long run, only if you are "lucky" the red marble selected will give you some little rewards or none. The higher probability would be to wipe out your principle investment by a tonne, hence being a red marble.
2. Instead of increasing the number of pails, why not increase the selection in the current pail from 1 to say 2 or even 3? Study the stock and do the necessary research until you are fully satisfied that your reasoning/rational for buying the stock with a solid basis as opposed to finding a new batch of stocks to filter. A stock which you have done your homework previously may not be a good investment at that point in time, BUT given the right circumstances may be an excellent investment later. So don't disregard the stock which you have have filtered out just yet.

I believe the Company has good future as they are very stable. The only thing that is killing them at the moment is USD rates, Premium price for aluminium, slowdown in property markets and GST. Overall, this is a cyclical stock, so when times are good again, the share price will rise back again. At the meantime, can invest elsewhere.

Probably see some upward action happening only towards December.

KC, thanks for trying. As I said, I understand the difference clearly on what is cash and not. I was only focusing on the formula and the on the theoretical concept of what is possible. Anyway, you have already given me an indirect answer, thanks.

I am sure you have forgotten why I came out with the comment on the sarcastic part in the first place. So here’s a refresher.
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kcchongnz Posted by Newbhere > Oct 8, 2015 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

"KC, I understand what the articles says. But a straightforward reply on whether DPS can be replaced with EPS to change DDM to DCF wouldn't have been too difficult?"

No, that would not be difficult at all. But it has not much use to you since you don't need to think.
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I find your 2nd sentence really sarcastic and insulting. A totally different persona from the writer or educator I thought you to be. But it matters not now. Please carry on with your good work and ignore me. Cheers.

Thanks Probability and Noby for your kind comments. I appreciate them.

I have read 45 of KC’s recent articles and comments given by the readers and himself in each post. I plan to read the entire remainder.

With regards to my question on DDM and DCF, all I wanted was just a simple direction or hint if my understanding was correct. In substance they are both unique and different. In form, I believe they use the same formula. I am fine if KC chose not to reply or chose to point me to somewhere which can confirm my understanding. But he chose to be sarcastic about it, which was an absolute turn-off to me.

On my proposal, I don’t expect KC to be an expert in everything, but at least try to work out something to share based on his experience. I am well aware there are a lot of other visible or invisible veterans in I3. From their constructive comments and views, don’t you think everyone and including KC will be well rewarded?

Perhaps, it is a lot to ask from some simple request. But, as I said before, he has neither the obligation to respond in kind given his current circumstances.

I am not a writer, teacher or an educator. But, I am very hungry for knowledge and experience. I have read quite a number of books, formed discussion groups, signed up for courses, prepared templates and have been investing/trading. I acknowledge KC’s efforts in I3 and thank him for that. I would also like to thank those Sifu’s who gave their 2 cents comments on his post. I find a lot of their sharings were of great value based on their experience and wisdom.

I would like to conclude that a Teacher must evolve and grow as well. He may be comfortable repeating the same things in different topics, over and over again. But truly is that his only potential or can he be more?

Nice new article and thanks, KC, for highlighting me in your new article.

First of all, I think you really have an issue reading and understanding people's comments. I am not sure whether it is genuine oversight or pure arrogance or ego at play.

Anyway, FYI, in my previous suggestion I said "On a side note, it would be great if we could have write-ups on Industry plays, cyclical plays, penny stock plays.". This was merely to compliment valuelurker's remark, which I am aware you were very defensive of as well.

Everyone in I3 has learn a lot from your articles, sharings, comments etc. But, you have a tendency to repeat over and over again on some topics and analysis. My only sincere wish or perhaps most reader’s as well is that we wish for you to write different topics which are of value to both the new and veteran investors (e.g refer to my above-mentioned suggestion. You can write anything else that you fancy).

Did I indicate in any way that you are a peddler? Did I request for you to give me a suggested stock to invest/trade?

What is the rational for my suggested topic? There are over 1,000 counters in Bursa, categorised into various industries (e.g O&G, Banking, plantation) and modes of investment (e.g warrants, iculs). A new investor or even some veterans are not aware of this. All they see or hear from are those individual counters highlighted in the news, I3, rumours and recommendations from friends and family etc. I thought perhaps an Educator or Investment Guru like yourself who has been in the market for quite a while could easily write such a topic, educating us of such matters including the risk involved and how they usually trade in Bursa (e.g due to seasonal/cyclical, GLC impact). You may not be an expert, but does it matter? What matters is that you take the trouble to research and share with us your thoughts in layman’s terms.

We acknowledge you as a teacher in value investing whether you like it or not. Regardless of whether you are a small time retail investor and whether you exercise humility or not, I believe you can do more to educate everyone out there. I hope you take this as a sign for you to step-up and grow yourself to the next level. Your students will grow along with you.

Of course you do have a choice to ignore me and my suggestion. Life needs to go on either way as well. But if you with your education, skills and experience can afford to make a difference now and for the future for the readers and for all aspiring valuer investors, then I would suggest not to turn a blind eye.

Thanks KC for your sense of sarcasm and effort in replying to my simple request and suggestion. An ordinary investor wouldn't have bothered to write so many articles in I3 and even offer to educate interested people in value investing. I am disappointed. But let's move on, as neither of us have any real obligation to one another.

KC, I understand what the articles says. But a straightforward reply on whether DPS can be replaced with EPS to change DDM to DCF wouldn't have been too difficult?

On the 2nd suggestion, it is okay for you to share your experience on the banking, oil and gas, plantation, industrial or any other sectors you are familiar with. I am not asking for tips, punt strategies or a doctorate write-up. Just merely your past and current experience and future expectation. It is okay to just say you are busy or you are not interested in writing such articles at this time. Cheers and take it easy.

Hi KC, based on the formula and example you quoted above for DDM, am I right to say that if we substitute the Div amount with EPS, this would then equate to a DCF computation? Both DDM and DCF uses mostly the same data.

On a side note, it would be great if we could have write-ups on Industry plays, cyclical plays, penny stock plays.

I think no one is perfect in investing. KC has his own reasons/points on VS valuations in the past. Just because the share price is being cooked and pushed up by the funds or institutions doesn't make it a fantastic stock right? Everybody has their own preference and risk appetite on whether to buy the stock or not. Whether the share price will go up or not, no one really knows right. High risk, high return yes? But if sudden major u-turn then at least considered the risk avoided right. So for those who invested that is their bonus and perhaps result of their effort (if they studied the stock).

KC, u should not simply admit you are "wrong". You have your own principles and method of investing, yes? So please remember that. What looks great and wonderful now, may not necessarily continue be so in the long term right? We are doing fundamental investing and must stick to what we believe in and not just buckle from our decision.

The above is my 2 cents opinion only.