https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-much-profits-do-glove-makers-need-sustain-rally?type=malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 6): Based on historical valuation, which investment analysts said has been thrown out of the window by now, the glove manufacturers are trading at price-earnings ratio of more than 100 times.

Top Glove is currently the second largest company by market value in Bursa Malaysia, followed by Hartalega as the third biggest. Only Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), the country’s biggest bank in asset size, is more valuable than the two glove manufacturers.

Interestingly, even Supermax Corp Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd are already among the top 25 largest firms in terms of market value in the local bourse. Supermax is 16th and Kossan 21st.

Against the backdrop of anticipated exceptionally strong demand for disposable rubber gloves due to the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with a big jump of 30% in average selling price, investors are pouring money into glove manufacturers with high hope that they will churn not just profits in current harsh economic conditions but super profits.

Investment analysts have been raising earnings forecasts as the meteoric rally continues and the glove stocks surpass initial target prices.


As the glove companies are due to release their financial results soon. How much earnings do they need to deliver to sustain their currently high share price levels?

According to Bloomberg data, earnings consensus for Top Glove’s financial year ending Aug 31, 2020 (FY20) is a record high of RM1.44 billion and a whopping increase to RM3.81 billion the year after.

A back of envelope calculation, on a simple average, Top Glove would need to achieve RM866 million in net profit in the quarter ending Aug 31 - a 149% jump from the preceding quarter to meet market expectations.

This is more than four times the quarterly net profit of Nestle (M) Bhd for the financial quarter ended March 31, 2020.


Hartalega announced its record high net profit of RM219.72 million in the first financial quarter ended June 30. But the stellar set of financial results did not add fuel to its share price rally as it fell short of market expectations.

Still, analysts upgraded earnings forecasts noting that profit margin will be wider as a result of higher average selling price in upcoming quarters. In short, analysts are of the view that the exponential growth has yet to kick in.

Market consensus forecast Hartalega's annual profit went up to RM1.61 billion for the financial year ending March 31, 2021. This means that Hartalega's 1QFY21 net profit only accounted for 13% of the full-year earnings consensus.

To meet the market consensus, Hartalega will need to achieve an average of RM479 million in each of the three upcoming financial quarters. This translates into average earnings growth of 346% y-o-y.

Likewise, Supermax and Kossan are expected to see a 260% and 207% q-o-q growth respectively this coming quarter to meet their earnings consensus.

Supermax’s market capitalisation is currently at RM31.28 billion. Assuming a P/E ratio of 25 times, which is considerably high for the manufacturing sector, Supermax needs to make an annual net profit of RM1.25 billion, or an average quarterly profit of about RM312 million. Meanwhile, Kossan Rubber is expected to deliver annual net profit of RM974 million, averaging RM243.5 million in each quarter.

What about the smaller players?
Similarly, based on the P/E of 25 times, for Comfort Glove Bhd to justify the current market capitalisation of RM3.78 billion, it will have to make an annual net profit of RM151.56 million.

Rubberex Corp Bhd’s market value has swelled to RM1.881 billion. At the P/E valuation of 25 times, the glove maker is expected to achieve annual net profit of RM75.24 million, or RM18.8 million a quarter.

Over at Careplus, its market capitalisation is at RM2.918 billion. To justify a P/E ratio of 25 times, the company needs to churn an annual net profit of RM87.92 million - an amount that is almost equivalent to its market value a year ago of RM85 million.

trust you are not disputing the analyst PE which are as equally or more qualified than you on their judgements..

you are right..

my judgement is based on analyst consensus PE of 25

and the intense research i made to predict the earnings going forward (both from management guidance and the reality of the pandemic implications which had change demand structurally)

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Aug 6, 2020 10:47 AM | Report Abuse

I don't disagree that there's no precise measurement of value, although calling it an 'opinion' is a long stretch. But there's a big difference between not having a precise measurement vs any measurement would do.

Not having precise measurement just mean something is hard to measure, it doesn't suddenly mean that thing can take on any value, agree? Just like absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

While we are at this, even if you truly believe because something cannot be precisely measured, therefore 'any value is possible', then how the hell you're going to know if you're not wrong? and if you don't have the ability to know whether you're right or wrong because any value is possible, how are you guarantee you can make money long-term?

Ricky, for any stock thats trading above PE 30, you need your whole career lifespan to prove that your valuation are materialized...

the whole concept of 'value' is just an 'opinion' that keeps changing...nobody waits to realize the cash dividends in their pocket as per DDM on any stocks....

our human lifespan is not sufficient enough to realize these 'valuation'

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Aug 6, 2020 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

Yes of course. Now we are closer to reality. Going towards $100-120 bil market cap. And btw, when discussing this stuff, don't confuse between value and price.

Posted by Ricky Yeo> May 28, 2020 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

Once it hit 7.00++, it never goes back to RM6.00.

Once it hit 8.00++, it never goes back to RM7.00

***

I heard this kind of saying over and over again. Remember Hengyuan, they say once it pass $20, it never goes back.

When someone say stuff like this, be very very careful.

I think he posted even earlier than this - price was 7 then

Posted by Ricky Yeo> May 28, 2020 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

"we believe in our own valuation" lol. Sure, why use Harta as benchmark, Supermax is better than Harta, how about try $100 bil valuation. Still very cheap at $100 bil, only 10%of Google, omg that's a screaming buy

omg....Ricky's emotion triggered again....

ironically emotions seems most abundant on those who advocate rationality...

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Aug 6, 2020 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

freetospeak predict $3.2 bil profit. You read that right, $3.2 bil profit. CB, mortgage your house, and every stock and sapu Supermax now!

$3.2 bil profit can even enter Fortune 500 already, something no Malaysian company has ever done, not even Public Bank. Imagine how much Supermax would worth if it enter Fortune 500 or one of the most admired global company. Easily TP100.

HOW MUCH GLOVE PROFIT TO SUSTAIN RALLY ??

Author: freetospeak | Publish date: Thu, 6 Aug 2020, 9:22 AM

From the extract below.

SUPERMAX capitalisation is at 31 bil. Assuming PE 25. Supermax need to make Annual profit of 1.25 billion or an average QTRLY profit of 312 million. (extracted from THE EDGE. This is for FY2021)

For FY2020 Bloomberg consensus estimate is 382 m - 71-30-24 = 257 millions

With the upcoming QTR 4 result.My estimate is about 447 mi > 250 m Bloomburg consensus

(PAT 336 million - PAT 558 million (AVG 447 million)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-07-29-story-h1510785885-SUPERMAX_QTR_4_RESULT_FORECAST_POSSIBLE_movement.jsp

For FY2021. My latest projection for SUPERMAX QTR 1 is about 800 m PAT to 1 billion PAT.

That is about 3.2 bill ANNUALLY (2.56x of Bloomber consensus)

or eps of RM2.46 x pe 20 = TP50.00 (ex-bonus tp 25)

I will provide a clearer calculation after the release of QTR 4 results to justify my projection.

EXTRACTED FROM THE EDGE. FOR MORE INFO GO GET A COPY !!!


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h1511558505-HOW_MUCH_GLOVE_PROFIT_TO_SUSTAIN_RALLY.jsp

Thanks for the article Free!

Posted by freetospeak > Aug 6, 2020 9:27 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-06-story-h151155...

New post. pls support ah .

wow..that means if Q4 earning is 450m, price will shoot up to 33..Fantastic!

Can Top Glove surpass market cap of Asean’s largest bank?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/can-top-glove-surpass-market-cap-aseans-largest-bank

Pegging a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 52 times, which Ng noted is similar to Hartalega Holdings Bhd’s valuation, he said, “Our bull-case scenario indicates that Top Glove’s fair value could be as high as RM110.20, if selling prices do increase by 10% (month-on-month) each month in FY2021E.”

Ng’s optimism is premised on a high possibility that Top Glove’s average selling price (ASP) could be higher than his base case of 5% m-o-m increment, given the strong surge in demand for gloves.

“If selling prices were to increase by 8% to 10% m-o-m each month in FY2021E, our earnings forecasts would be lifted between 24% and 42%,” he said, adding that Top Glove could see direct earnings improvement, owing to operating leverage, as cost does not increase in tandem with an increase in ASP.

In terms of the potential effect from the US Customs and Border Protection’s detention order on disposable gloves produced by two of Top Glove’s subsidiaries, Ng thinks the impact on the group’s earnings is manageable at 5% to 6%.

Can Top Glove surpass market cap of Asean’s largest bank?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/can-top-glove-surpass-market-cap-aseans-largest-bank

Pegging a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 52 times, which Ng noted is similar to Hartalega Holdings Bhd’s valuation, he said, “Our bull-case scenario indicates that Top Glove’s fair value could be as high as RM110.20, if selling prices do increase by 10% (month-on-month) each month in FY2021E.”

Ng’s optimism is premised on a high possibility that Top Glove’s average selling price (ASP) could be higher than his base case of 5% m-o-m increment, given the strong surge in demand for gloves.

“If selling prices were to increase by 8% to 10% m-o-m each month in FY2021E, our earnings forecasts would be lifted between 24% and 42%,” he said, adding that Top Glove could see direct earnings improvement, owing to operating leverage, as cost does not increase in tandem with an increase in ASP.

In terms of the potential effect from the US Customs and Border Protection’s detention order on disposable gloves produced by two of Top Glove’s subsidiaries, Ng thinks the impact on the group’s earnings is manageable at 5% to 6%.

...........

let us give well wishes to TG to achieve TP of RM110....baby Super just follow from behind is also OK

SJMC marked up 800% margin, super OBM only need to mark up 50% from OEM

if OBM of supermax can do that, Super should overtake TG price already

thanks zzzz52! Good job...

1) Scroll down the link below:

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/07/ug-healthcare-2hfy20-preview-cgs-cimb-research-2020-07-30.html

2) right at the bottom, press continue to access the pdf version

3) open the pdf and go to page no.3

4) see supermax figures for June20-F

Revenue is 2.517b
Net profit margin is 28.2%

You calculate then...

Free, let me help you...

‘World using 129 billion disposable masks, 65 billion gloves monthly’

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/08/02/2032368/world-using-129-billion-disposable-masks-65-billion-gloves-monthly

65 b/month means 780 b/annum
.............................

no wonder - its a structural change and glove makers are investing heavily for higher capacity

countries like china, whose consumption has doubled can only increase further due to serious needs for avoidance of repeating such catastrophic incident in the future

Dont know how you will ever vaccinate these people?

Ultra Spot orders from Berlin coming soon...

Post removed.Why?

ok - pause for TG, fast-forward for Super

you are right, remember the chart shows ASP of OEM too....it does not make sense to talk on peak price for OEM here...as they are large bulk supplies by the gloves industry....this means average prices are indicated there for both OEM & OBM.

however, spot orders are completely in a diff category...

spot order arised due urgent need in small quantity due to sudden surges in demand caused by covid...these non-recurring consumption at small volumes.... this happens as suppliers usually requires large bulk orders in billions and these short term buyers do not need at such quantity.

The compromise is high ASP which even touched 190$/k gloves as for supermax



Posted by staypositive > Aug 1, 2020 12:34 PM | Report Abuse

I supposed the selling price stated in the briefing sheet is an average of different prices across the world (eg. US and BRAZIL at higher prices compared to other countries at lower prices).

So as the rate of infection keeps rising in countries especially in USA and Brazil, more higher priced gloves will be catered to them to fight the virus.

Any thoughts on this?

TG Sales to U.S is 13% of output. At it capacity 82 b/annum, that is:

= (13/100) * 82 b/annum
= 11 b/annum

Now, Supermax capacity was 22 b/annum.

This basically means Supermax market size has increased by 50% (without competition from top 2 world suppliers) - at a place where the gloves sells at the highest premium.

Remember the below news late last year:
.......................................

Local glove makers benefit from US-China trade war, Supermax says

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/09/06/local-glove-makers-benefit-from-us-china-trade-war-supermax-says

Rubber gloves manufacturer, Supermax Corporation Bhd, is expecting its exports to the United States (US) to increase to 40 per cent from the current 30 per cent, boosted by sales of medical gloves due to the ongoing US-China trade war.

Founder and president Datuk Seri Stanley Thai Kim Sim said this was because the US government had imposed a 15 per cent tariff on medical gloves made in China starting from Sept 1.

"The US-China trade war has and will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, and this augurs well for the company," he told a media briefing after announcing the company's full year results here today.

Thai said Malaysia is one of the countries benefiting from the trade tiff between the two economic giants.

He also said that Supermax's industrial glove market -- which currently accounts for about 10 per cent of its total exports -- is also set to grow as non-medical gloves made in China have also been slapped with a 25 per cent import duty by the US government back in January 1, 2019.

"This is an unfortunate event but it also created an opportunity for Malaysian manufacturers to increase their market presence in the US," he said.

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says demand is ‘still very high’

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, tells Christine Tan that the present environment remains “very challenging,” with demand for gloves from U.S. hospitals being “double” that of the period before the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-demand-is-still-very-high.html



Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says its ‘priority’ is to support existing customers

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, says the U.S. remains its “biggest market” as it comprises close to 40% of the company’s sales.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-its-priority-is-to-support-existing-customers.html



Extract from abive CNBC news:
............................

India gloves demand quadrupled , China doubled. India demand will only increase further...

Harta is not interested for immediate new customers who needs urgent orders at high price, i.e no allocation like the spot orders TG makes.

Any new customers for Harta - have to wait queue of 9 - 12 months.

If TG is blocked for US market, i suppose its only left with Supermax for all the spot orders there?

This is something to ponder deep and not to be taken lightly as the above effects could even last 6 - 12 months (both TG & Harta out of the game in U.S for spot orders)

Extract from abive CNBC news:
............................

India gloves demand quadrupled , China doubled. India demand will only increase further...

Harta has no interest for new customers, no allocation like the spot orders TG makes. Any new customers for Harta - have to wait queue of 9 - 12 months.

If TG is blocked for US market, left only Supermac for all the spot orders there?

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says demand is ‘still very high’

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, tells Christine Tan that the present environment remains “very challenging,” with demand for gloves from U.S. hospitals being “double” that of the period before the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-demand-is-still-very-high.html

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says its ‘priority’ is to support existing customers

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, says the U.S. remains its “biggest market” as it comprises close to 40% of the company’s sales.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-its-priority-is-to-support-existing-customers.html

Post removed.Why?

9 - 12 months pang72

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says demand is ‘still very high’

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, tells Christine Tan that the present environment remains “very challenging,” with demand for gloves from U.S. hospitals being “double” that of the period before the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-demand-is-still-very-high.html


Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says its ‘priority’ is to support existing customers

Kuan Mun Leong, CEO of Hartalega Holdings, says the U.S. remains its “biggest market” as it comprises close to 40% of the company’s sales.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/31/malaysian-glove-maker-hartalega-says-its-priority-is-to-support-existing-customers.html

to the anonymous who is flagging my posts, feel free to express your dissatisfaction such that i can address....

you are given vocabulary to communicate...do it man

people here are genuinely trying to express their point of view...nothings is right or wrong...

we are just sharing our thoughts to discuss

Kindly listen to both videos

Kindly listen to both videos

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says its 'priority' is to support existing customers

Jul 31, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDhgdI4aPXI

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says its 'priority' is to support existing customers

Jul 31, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDhgdI4aPXI

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says demand is 'still very high'

Jul 30, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0vYHyEAnYw

Malaysian glove maker Hartalega says demand is 'still very high'

Jul 30, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0vYHyEAnYw

If Australia, Spain, Japan...from almost nil cases with stringent prevention measures, now exploding with covid cases again....

i really wonder when U.S & brazil will ever be able to control these with daily cases exceeding 60k

their attitude, discipline level and needs of freedom is completely different than the above countries...

I cannot see them bringing down the cases to nil, and if they did...it will explode again within weeks when they are back to normal.

Unless vaccination for the whole complete population.

Think about it - its going to take years before that happens - when will every single person be vaccinated?

............

TG now screwed a big existing market (U.S) and potentially Australia too...god knows when UK will say the same, and i cant see this WRO uplifting anytime within the next 2 months...

Supermax should be the ultimate gainer.

Just like how now TG is in a position to allocate 20-30% of their output for spot orders - while certainly disappointing their dedicated buyers ...

Super had completely re-channeled all their output to their own distributor from external distributors earlier. Their OBM contribution is 100% to their own pocket.

If TG could do that as an OEM gradually, it was almost instantaneous - immediate for Super



Posted by freetospeak > Jul 31, 2020 2:28 PM | Report Abuse

Their direct customer database had increased by leaps n bound due to this crisis.they cant do that in the past.but now they can becoz of this crisis creating high awareness to their product. They increase their obm to 95%,they streamlined their obm n greatly increase margin.it will bring great value to their company n shareholders.

yes free, may be market is waiting for 'Super to show the prove' what margin they can make as an OBM....


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 31, 2020 1:43 PM | Report Abuse

Prob...we still need profit to bak up.if super can prove with super profit.the price gap will close up naturally.jus like harta is closing up to tg again with its coming qtr.

I think any distributor who buys from TG (as an OEM supplier) would want to at least share 50% of the OEM margin when they package it with their own Brand name and sells as an OBM....

if not they will surely squeeze the OEM margin

the above logic is the core of the above justification

actually TG capacity is 86 b/annum vs Super of 26b/annum

if you assume the OBM only retains a margin of 50% of OEM, the ratio on (1) above becomes 1.5

using 1.5 into (2) above, the equivalent gloves capacity of Super becomes:

= 26 x 1.5
= 39 b/annum
............

Super gloves capacity to TG becomes:

= 39/86
= 45%


Currently Super Mcap to TG is at 33%

To raise the ratio to match equivalent capacity, Super price should be:

= 45%/33% x 18.5 (super share price)
= 25

Again, it shows it should match TG price

the wonder....in a nutshell is... why havent trading price of super match TG as expressed by someone earlier as per below



Jul 25, 2020 2:08 PM | Report Abuse

actually one simple way of comparing Super with TG is this:
...........................................................

(1) decide what OBM margin is vs OEM

i see the ratio (OBM/OEM) ranges anywhere from 5 x , to the most conservative assumption giving 2 x.
Meaning if OEM make RM 0.10 per glove OBM makes at least RM 0.20 per glove.

(2) this margin difference can be represented as equivalent gloves.

For a minimum ratio of 2, the equivalent gloves capacity of Super will be double its existing versus topglove

as such Super effective capacity is 42 billion if topglove is at 90 billion. i.e about 50% of TG


(3) mcap of super versus topglove should reflect the equivalent gloves capacity

Current market cap of TG is 70 billion versus super of 23 billion

...............

based on (2) above, shouldnt super be having at least half the mcap of topglove? instead of less than 30% currently.

Super being OBM would have higher flexibility on spot orders which was shooting to 190usd per 1000 gloves in July....

being smaller, it has higher rate of expansion in capacity (growth) lesser constrained by workers unlike topglove...

further it had established its distributors at the key affected areas like Brazil and U.S....

I am still curious why the pricing has not catch up to TG

using the above arguments, super should be priced at 26 if topglove is at 26

In a nutshell, their price should match

it was intentionally sold down to match closing % drop of TG by those who cannot see the difference between Super & TG

the wonder had risen due to the fact that it was trading at positive 2 % relative to TG throughout the whole trading day up till a few min before closing..


Posted by ikansardin > Jul 31, 2020 1:11 PM | Report Abuse

I saw many people asking why close 18.50. Does that not suppose depend on ask n bid price? Or any specific rule or calculation its not suppose closed with 18.50? I'm newbie who just follow trend. Wondering myself, why many people wonder why its close 18.50. Maybe someone can share the reason of why it is not suppose 18.50

For TG shareholders, just monitor below to see the effects of Dow Jones

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TGLVY:US

Gloves is barely affected - it may turn out to be green.

FYI: If TG U.S trades at 25, TG Bursa should trade at (4.24/4) x 25 = 26.5

the 4.24 is USD to MYR exchange rate and the 4 is due to the fact 1 TG US shares is equivalent to 4 TG Bursa shares.

For TG shareholders, just monitor below to see the effects of Dow Jones

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TGLVY:US

Gloves is barely affected - it may turn out to be green.

FYI: If TG U.S trades at 25, TG Bursa should trade at (4.24/4) x 25 = 26.5

the 4.24 is USD to MYR exchange rate and the 4 is due to the fact 1 TG US shares is equivalent to 4 TG Bursa shares.

Top Glove expects to settle remediation with US Customs next month

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-glove-expects-settle-remediation-us-customs-next-month

..............

To me the above means 2 weeks in July & 4 weeks in August. Due to uncertainty when the WRO will be revoked, buyers would not wait it till it happens...and start booking for the whole quarter from alternative suppliers like Supermax.

In the month of June alone, Supermax shipments to U.S was matching the entire quarter of Jan - March 20.

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc

Wouldnt be surprised if August becomes another killer export to U.S....

the Withhold Release Order made on WRP Asia Pacific Sdn Bhd on 30.09.2020 was only revoked on 24.03.2020?

https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/forced-labor/withhold-release-orders-and-findings

Post removed.Why?

Conclusion
...........

World consumption of protective gloves is expected to jump more than 11 percent to 330 billion pieces this year, two-thirds of which are likely to be supplied by Malaysia, according to Malaysia's rubber glove manufacturers group.

Should Top Glove and TG Medical take prompt remedial action, it is possible that CBP might lift the WRO. This was the case with glove manufacturer WRP Asia Pacific Sdn. Bhd., upon whom a WRO was imposed last year for similar reasons, and lifted subsequent to a conforming change in its manufacturing policies. CBP will likely only be satisfied when all past recruitment fees and related costs, which hold such workers in debt bondage, are fully repaid and other preventative measures imposed

Aside from paying these debts, it is likely that CBP – as well as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) group, which likely worked in concert with CBP on the Top Glove matter – will require further measures by Top Glove, in order to ensure that it no longer engages in forced labor practices. Top Glove will likely be required to take steps to ensure that its employment agents no longer put migrant workers into debt bondage, and that all parts of its supply chain utilize ethical recruitment practices, including zero cost recruitment policies.

Absent such longer-term remedial measures aimed at purging its supply chain of forced labor practices, Top Glove's subsidiaries will likely remain on CBP's WRO list.