Where do yield-starved investors go?

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/718535/where-do-yield-starved-investors-go

......

here.....Armada would give a yield of 30%

With a continuous reduction on 8 billion debt interest rate, Armada would effectively become like a commercial bank who makes net interest margin (NIM) between central bank and investors.....but Armada between commercial bank and Order book of 17 billion

More i dwell, the more its becoming clear what a wonderful bet Armada is with explosive return!

Post removed.Why?

This is Cold Eye stock liao...cant go wrong!

Operating profit before impairment increased to RM246.6mil in 2Q

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/718247/bumi-armada-stages-strong-2q-performance-net-profit-rm120m

2% interest rate reduction of 8 billion is already 160 million per annum

Net cash generated from operating activities for last 2 qtrs (despite the MCO): 195,452 , its about 100m per qtr

the above is with almost half the revenue than normal due to MCO

at current cash level of 446m, it can easily become net cash company within next 2 qtrs


golden opportunity to accumulate

at this oil price level....it has nothing to worry about capex by petronas

maintenance are mandatory services

dayang earnings going forward will easily beat serba...its much easier to grow aggressively unlike serba which is already a monster

I see management had hinted significant improvement going forward.....

Dayang is quite independent on oil price. The pent up services may fall into coming qtrs....

Serba moving up already....what about Dayang?

ok thanks for the confirmation pjseow

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mega-first-gets-us150m-loan-don-sahong-hydropower-project

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 10): Mega First Corp Bhd secured a US$150 million (RM634.88 million) loan to part-finance the construction of the Don Sahong hydropower project in Laos.

Mega First told Bursa Malaysia today its wholly-owned subsidiary Mega First Investments (L) Ltd had yesterday entered into facility agreements with various financial institutions for the "club deal facilities".

The US$150 million loan comprises conventional term-loan facilities of US$85 million and an Islamic financing scheme of up to US$65 million, read the filing.

According to the company, the conventional facilities' interest rate and Islamic financing scheme's profit rate are based on a "variable rate that is linked to the financial institution's cost of funds. Based on today's cost of funds, the weighted average interest is 4.51%".

...

so it means it will be adjusted?

Further OPR cut of 25bps or 50bps in near term likely — AmBank chief

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/further-opr-cut-25bps-or-50bps-near-term-likely-%E2%80%94-ambank-chief

.........

where can you park money, if not for stock like MFCB

wonder, if MFCB loan interest rate has the potential to come down..

pjseow, any idea how their loan interest rate works - is that fixed?

when i see Maybank's results, it makes me realize how a precious gem MFCB is

very interesting news ahpooki2, thanks

Posted by ahpooki2 > Aug 27, 2020 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

https://theconversation.com/approval-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine-would-be-just-the-beginning-huge-production-challenges-could-cause-long-delays-144179?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=bylinewhatsappbutton

may be need some money for coming election in US...may be expect US market crash if trump loses...can be many reasons

Posted by Joe Ng > Aug 27, 2020 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

why fidelity is disposing shares when the price just breakout?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070715/what-pricetoearnings-ratio-average-utilities-sector.asp

What Is the Average Price-to-Earnings Ratio in the Utilities Sector?

Feb 24, 2020

For 2019, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the utilities sector was approximately 28.23. This number applies to water, electricity, and gas utilities, as well as any ancillary companies that independently produce or distribute power. Looking forward to the remainder of 2020, analysts project a 39.18 P/E ratio, which is well above the 23.35 market-wide P/E ratio estimates.

.........

even half of that would do...he he

thanks steven832

The total number of share options granted to the Group’s employees and directors which remained unexercised as at 30 June 2020 was 18,181,409 (31.12.2019:22,888,411). Of the total 475,994,642 (31.12.2019: 438,342,263) issued ordinary shares as at 30 June 2020, 20,497,300 (31.12.2019: 20,497,300) ordinary shares were held as treasury shares by the Company. The number of outstanding ordinary shares in issue as at 30 June 2020 was therefore 455,497,342 (31.12.2019: 417,844,963).

............

the above is the extract from qtr report.

guess you add the outstanding shares of 455.5m with unexercised option of 18m and the treasury shares of 20.5m to obtain 494m shares?

Taking out the non-controlling interest, about 72 cents i guess?

pjseow, you mean EPS of 78 cents right?


Posted by pjseow > Aug 26, 2020 9:18 PM | Report Abuse

You are right, probability. If we use the estimate of 90% utilization for second half, the revenue from DS is about 267 million. Using a profit margin of 71%, second half profit is about 190 million. Assuming the resource and packaging divisions contribute 10 millions, total profits for the year will be about 338 millions. This will translate into 68 s EPS for the.whole year .

Thanks for the info pjseow, PE 15 does give a yield of about 7% your son had used on the DCF.

Referring to the below extract from qtr report, when availability factor increase by 90% from 78%, the impact on earnings can be more than proportional i suppose?

Planning to hold long unless it shoots up very high. This kinda margin and duration no business can provide.

.................



Power Division (Don Sahong Project)
....................................

Don Sahong achieved full commercial operation on 7 January 2020 following successful testing of and synchronization with EDL’s new 500 KV by-pass transmission line to Cambodia.

Reported power revenue of RM233.7 million for the 6-month period this year represented energy billing to EDL during the period on a take-or-pay basis, Despite the seasonal dry season in January-May, the period recorded an average energy availability factor of 78.7%, slightly ahead of management expectations.

With the onset of wetter weather in June, the average energy availability factor is forecast to exceed 90% in the second half of the year.

with such low interest rate, PE can even be 20 i suppose..

guess you are very confident on achieving 70 cents next year pjseow?
thinking of adding more

Posted by pjseow > Aug 20, 2020 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

Investor77, analysts are projecting very high earnings for both supermx and topglove for FY 2021. The PE range between 10 to 15 of 2021 earnings. Their earnings are few x of FY 2020 earnings. Thats is reasons why you see high tgt prices. I think.PE of 15 is a reasonable number for mfcb. I estimated mfcb earning to be about 65 to 70 sen this year and between 70 to 75 s next year

noted pjseow, i have seen you messages earlier on how delayed they are at realizing these ASPs...due to lead time

thanks for your usual deep analysis

Posted by pjseow > Aug 23, 2020 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, based on Supermx Q4 2020 result analyst briefing, we can actually estimate the earnings of Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 2021.The informations from.slide 4, 9 ,13 and 14 provides pricing ,leadtimes and orders .These info enable us to estimate the increasing earnings of the next 4 qtrs.I estimated the earnings of next 4 qtrs of.approximately 620 million,775 million, 978 million and 1114 million respectively. Total earning for 2021 is 3.5 billion. My assumption is no capacity increase and no cost increase. Strictly based on ASP increase and monthly volume of 2 billion pcs.This translates into rm 2.57 per share.With just a PE of 15, the tgt price is rm 38.6 if we base on FY 2021 earning.

At current risk free interest rate of 1.8% and further interest rate cut before end of the year, and the fact that all other businesses will remain depressed until the pandemic is over (2 -3 years time)....you really cant see the interest rate direction reversing again for many years to come....

As such, its possible for Gloves stock like Super to deserve a PE of 40...after all its going to beat Harta's margin edge consistently going forward

sorry sifu free, using your posting basis, with OEM having 1/3 of the OBM margin, TG will be deriving 1/3 of the above profit.

As such, extrapolated for its capacity expansion by 40%, its EPS will be 80 cents per annum (before bonus issue).

Its TP will be double the below value estimated earlier



Posted by probability > Aug 22, 2020 9:38 PM | Report Abuse X

To me what is interesting in this presentation of Post Covid scenario is..

at OEM margin of 12% used by free on above derivations, Top Glove with say an additional throughput of 40% (capacity expansion by 2022), will be having an EPS of around 40 cents per annum only (before Bonus issue)..

Even with PE 80, Top Glove TP = RM 32 (before bonus issue)

.......


It shows how conservatively the above TP for supermax had been derived..

ok let me try...may be tomorrow i post here if i could put in an easily understandable manner...

for now we can see below for TG:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7113.jsp

on second qtr of 2020, at 9% PAT margin, its EPS was 4.52

I try to see the effects of increasing margin to 12% and then raise sales by 40%....i got roughly 40 cents EPS only...

This is of course assuming TG maintains 100% at OEM sales price

A good place to check these on the Analyst Briefing of Supermax dated 9th Aug page 13 (the first 2 bar giving data for pre-covid ASP)

yes sifu free.....is my judgement above valid?

and for Top Glove to expand capacity by 40% , it needs to spend almost double the capital Super needs for expanding to 48b by 2022

To me what is interesting in this presentation of Post Covid scenario is..

at OEM margin of 12% used by free on above derivations, Top Glove with say an additional throughput of 40% (capacity expansion by 2022), will be having an EPS of around 40 cents per annum only (before Bonus issue)..

Even with PE 80, Top Glove TP = RM 32 (before bonus issue)

.......


It shows how conservatively the above TP for supermax had been derived..

and for your info, those who are immune can still transmit

understand why docs change gloves from one patient to another

its not only about protecting self..

Posted by Zuliana > Aug 22, 2020 3:24 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak>>> May b u will end up with vaccine but no gloves to proceed.
22/08/2020 2:32 PM

No.... when we have vaccines, who need gloves to proceed the injection lah???
The doctor who gives vaccines injections, no need to fear Covid anymore .
The patient getting injections also doesn’t care whether the doctor wear gloves to administer vaccines injections lah.

So false conjecture that when vaccines are available, more gloves are needed to administer the injections lah...
I just poke and burst false presumption here.

No la..i always panic sell at low and buy high...:(

Posted by myongcc5 > Aug 20, 2020 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

Prob, still do hardworking here, must hv earn till no where to keep

so far super had never failed to break cimb TP...

it overtook Kossan, and then Harta...

i dont think its impossible to overtake TG before Bonus issue

Many dont realise TG has double the shares of Super and its converting bond to ordinary shares

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56346.jsp

Experts Warn of a Possible 'Twindemic'—Here's What That Means
Plus, how you can prepare for the potential health disaster.

By Korin Miller August 18, 2020

Every year around this time, public health officials start warning about the approach of flu season. But this year is a little bit different thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, experts are warning about the possibility of a “twindemic,” or the overlap of flu season and an expected surge in COVID-19 cases this fall and winter. Here’s what you need to know about the possibility of an upcoming twindemic, what it might look like, and what it can mean for public health.

What is a ‘twindemic,’ exactly?
...............................

The term “twindemic” was first introduced—to the general public, at least—by The New York Times in an article published on August 16. The Times credits L.J. Tan, PhD, as an "early promoter of the term." Tan is the chief strategy officer for the Immunization Action Coalition, a nonprofit group that works to increase vaccination rates.

A twindemic, per the Times, is the possibility of a severe flu season coinciding with a surge in COVID-19 cases. Even a mild flu season is concerning, given that the inevitable serious cases of the flu tax the medical system each year, Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tells Health.

As of right now, experts aren’t totally sure if we’ll have a severe flu season and subsequent twindemic. The only predictor, Dr. Adalja says, is from looking at countries in the southern hemisphere like Australia, which are currently going through their winter flu season. Flu cases there have plummeted during the season, even seeing as much as a 98% drop in cases in April, according to the Australian Government’s Department of Health. A recent report from the country’s FluTracking surveillance system found that flu cases are “historically low,” with just 0.43% of people reporting influenza-like illness.

But, while that sounds like great news, Dr. Adalja doesn’t expect that we’ll see the same results. “We probably won’t get the same level of control of influenza as countries like Australia,” he says, noting that in the US, we don't currently have same social distancing regulations in place. “We have to prepare for a challenging flu season.”


What can happen if a twindemic occurs?
......................................

A lot. “We are anticipating a very vigorous winter respiratory virus season, with COVID-19 out there, perhaps increasing even more, and with influenza coming on the scene,” William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, tells Health. “There are other respiratory viruses, too.”

Even when you just look at the flu and COVID-19, “it will be challenging for doctors to distinguish one from the other,” Dr. Schaffner says.

A huge concern of doctors is the risk that the medical system will be overloaded trying to care for both COVID-19 and flu patients at once. “This is a real risk,” Richard Watkins, MD, an infectious disease physician in Akron, Ohio, and a professor of internal medicine at Northeast Ohio Medical University, tells Health.

“Even if we have to deal with a moderate-sized flu epidemic—which all by itself can stress hospital facilities—at the same time as the pandemic, we may be in for a quite rough winter,” Dr. Schaffner says.

Good sharing Dynasty...

it means spot order ASP is going to explode by Sept / Oct

to me these effects of explosive cases due to winter causing extreme shortage of gloves is almost certain

and Supermax Aurelia had established itself in Europe & U.S

a place where gloves sell at highest premium

Posted by Dynasty > Aug 20, 2020 2:09 AM | Report Abuse


Experts Warn of a Possible 'Twindemic'—Here's What That Means

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/twindemic

very good estimation...thanks free

Posted by freetospeak > Aug 19, 2020 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak The world population is in the billions 7 x 2 (1 pair) x 2 shots = 28 billion gloves per yr. This is only for injection part under no.4 (distribution).

1. More testing

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution
28 billion per year
(if possible which i think cannot be done coz every country speed of vaccination will be different and shortage of gloves will slow down the process. so it will be spread over 2-3 yrs to complete )

5. Disposal

report is very good you mean?

Posted by gemfinder > Aug 18, 2020 8:07 PM | Report Abuse

Normal la. When wharks want to push up, sure come out with very good reports

these new players probably have to sell cheap their assets to the big players later

thats why gloves company's margin % is so important - it determines how long they can survive 'holding their breath under water' under depressed margin without being killed by competitor (big players)

with OBM, Supermax has really equipped itself with the required defense mechanism

This is the exact reason why companies like Harta has such premium valuation


Posted by JohnFarmer458 > Aug 18, 2020 4:50 PM | Report Abuse

Many believe that in another few years after all the new entry into glove industry completed their factory and begun production they will be oversupply and ASP will decrease and in turn which affect the profit that the current glove makers currently enjoy during the pandemic.

But let me share my experience as someone with over 20 years in manufacturing industry

What happens when all the new entry into glove industry begin rolling out their gloves into the market? most current glove makers have good relationship with raw material provider as they have been buying for many years, so the trust is there and with their economic of scale due to sheer huge volume they will enjoy much more competitive price and priority.

So new comer will have to pay more to purchase raw material ( which would impact their profit margin ) and due to lower economic of scale their production cost per glove will be much higher.

And secondly being new in order to penetrate into the market they will have to offer lower price to distributors so it cuts their margin even more.

So most of them will run at a loss, for how long? the established big players can control price at anytime to press them further .Most of them will be making losses for long time before they can see profit. So whats the play? Remember the current players already have HUGE CASH reserve that they earned.

out of all the new players most of them will eventually bought over by established player to further increase their capacity so in the end all these new players coming into the industry will turn out benefiting current established players

well said

Posted by JohnFarmer458 > Aug 18, 2020 4:50 PM | Report Abuse

Many believe that in another few years after all the new entry into glove industry completed their factory and begun production they will be oversupply and ASP will decrease and in turn which affect the profit that the current glove makers currently enjoy during the pandemic.

But let me share my experience as someone with over 20 years in manufacturing industry

What happens when all the new entry into glove industry begin rolling out their gloves into the market? most current glove makers have good relationship with raw material provider as they have been buying for many years, so the trust is there and with their economic of scale due to sheer huge volume they will enjoy much more competitive price and priority.

So new comer will have to pay more to purchase raw material ( which would impact their profit margin ) and due to lower economic of scale their production cost per glove will be much higher.

And secondly being new in order to penetrate into the market they will have to offer lower price to distributors so it cuts their margin even more.

So most of them will run at a loss, for how long? the established big players can control price at anytime to press them further .Most of them will be making losses for long time before they can see profit. So whats the play? Remember the current players already have HUGE CASH reserve that they earned.

out of all the new players most of them will eventually bought over by established player to further increase their capacity so in the end all these new players coming into the industry will turn out benefiting current established players

so average 31.3....throw the dart with closed eyes also cannot miss then

by 17th sept this should be realized looks like

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2020/08/10/coronavirus-vaccine-gone-wrong/#7ae7db87ae4d


4. The vaccine gets approved but might be only 50% effective

That brings us to the novel coronavirus. In April, the WHO noted the ideal vaccine would establish immunity in at least 70 percent of the population, including the elderly. In July, an FDA official added, “We’re going to need a vaccine that’s probably in the order of 70% effective and 70%, at least, of the population is going to need to take it.” Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci is on the record as saying that he, too, would settle for a 70% to 75% effective vaccine.

But those are all “ideal” situations. =FDA guidance issued in June stated, “To ensure that a widely deployed COVID-19 vaccine is effective, the primary efficacy endpoint point estimate for a placebo-controlled efficacy trial should be at least 50%.”

This possibility leads to some disheartening mathematics. Assuming that only 50% of the population takes a vaccine that is only 50% effective, the nation’s immunization rate could be as low as 25%. That total would be insufficient to end the pandemic.

Achieving herd immunity, the point at which the virus would no longer spread, would require at least 70% of the country (200 million Americans) to either be vaccinated or acquire the virus and recover from it. Further, that estimate assumes long-lasting immunity from the virus.

...........

From above, if we U.S is to achieve herd immunity, 70% has to be immune.

If vaccine efficacy is 60% and 70% are vaccinated by end 2021 ( i doubt that fast), immunity level of U.S :

= 0.60 x 0.70
= 0.42 or 42%

At 42% immunity, looking at current cases of 60k per day with restrictions / safety measure, the cases per day at minimum will still be about 20k per day coupled with relaxation of rules.

Thats 5 x times higher than China at its peak

Further there is risk of immunity fading in 6 months...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2020/08/10/coronavirus-vaccine-gone-wrong/#463db8857ae4

4. The vaccine gets approved but might be only 50% effective

That brings us to the novel coronavirus. In April, the WHO noted the ideal vaccine would establish immunity in at least 70 percent of the population, including the elderly. In July, an FDA official added, “We’re going to need a vaccine that’s probably in the order of 70% effective and 70%, at least, of the population is going to need to take it.” Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci is on the record as saying that he, too, would settle for a 70% to 75% effective vaccine.

But those are all “ideal” situations. =FDA guidance issued in June stated, “To ensure that a widely deployed COVID-19 vaccine is effective, the primary efficacy endpoint point estimate for a placebo-controlled efficacy trial should be at least 50%.”

This possibility leads to some disheartening mathematics. Assuming that only 50% of the population takes a vaccine that is only 50% effective, the nation’s immunization rate could be as low as 25%. That total would be insufficient to end the pandemic.

Achieving herd immunity, the point at which the virus would no longer spread, would require at least 70% of the country (200 million Americans) to either be vaccinated or acquire the virus and recover from it. Further, that estimate assumes long-lasting immunity from the virus.

...........

From above, if we U.S is to achieve herd immunity, 70% has to be immune.

If vaccine efficacy is 60% and 70% are vaccinated by end 2021 ( i doubt that fast), immunity level of U.S :

= 0.60 x 0.70
= 0.42 or 42%

At 42% immunity, looking at current cases of 60k per day with restrictions / safety measure, the cases per day at minimum will still be about 20k per day coupled with relaxation of rules.

Thats 5 x times higher than China at its peak

Further there is risk of immunity fading in 6 months...

its a very sad day in supermax forum....:(

naysayers...below is something for you all to ponder..

supermax never asked PE of HARTA , did it?


Posted by llwj1985 > Aug 15, 2020 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

add me pls! good constructive criticism is acceptable, but too many trolls and black hearted people that try to manipulate investors emotions and cloud their thinking = no no

aduh...secretinvestor....you might as well change name to openbookinvestor now...

Posted by yttihs > Aug 15, 2020 12:34 PM | Report Abuse

@probability

Yes, I've killed secretinvestor8888 3 times.
He may still have accounts in the private forum but he dare not bark anymore.

with the below criteria...naysayers are killed even before they can speak....LOL!

Posted by yttihs > Aug 15, 2020 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

I came over from TG to recruit Supermax believer/fans into our current PRIVATE CHAT CHANNEL.

If you are interest, you can post, I'll check, then add.
-------
If you are NOT added:
1. Your account is new
2. You are a troll

If you are being added:
"You spam, I ban"

aduh...now all forum become private group chats already...

though i am a staunch supporter of super....i feel bad for the naysayers now...LOL!

now i understand why supermax management is doing a fantastic job of investing additional capacity instead of paying out as dividends...

every penny invested becomes a pound