https://www.biometricupdate.com/202005/datasonic-stock-analysts-and-precise-biometrics-ceo-hear-industry-opportunities-knocking

Malaysia’s Datasonic is rumored to be on the heels of a series of government contracts, while Precise Biometrics’ CEO is optimistic about the company’s digital ID and access control offerings. Other announcements by publicly traded industry players include a new client for Nuance, a new board member for Synaptics, resolutions from Fingerprint Cards’ and Idex Biometrics’ AGMs, and a new implementation of Goodix technology.

Datasonic rumored to be in line for government contracts

Datasonic Group Bhd shares have surged in price on rumors that it may win a new contract with the government of Malaysia, where the company is based.

The company already provides biometric facial recognition to the government for border control, and stood up a joint venture to develop next-generation biometrics with Digent last year.

A contract for online renewal of temporary foreign workers for the country’s Immigration Department was extended, ahead of a possible new contract. The news sent Datasonic company warrant DSONIC-WA up by 11 percent in a day to 65 sen, on the second highest volume among public companies on Bursa Malaysia, with nearly 109 million units traded.

The contract for temporary foreign workers is currently held by MyEG, which has received notice to continue providing the service until informed otherwise. The contract had been set to expire on May 22.

Other contract expected to be handed out in the near future include tenders for the Foreign Visa System, One-Stop Centre, Foreigner Identity Card (I-Kad), Electronic Medical Records, and National Digital ID, according to market analyst firm RHB Research, which notes Malaysia’s government is attempting to attempting to speed up its digitalization.

RHB raised its target price for Datasonic stock from RM1.67 to RM1.84.

HIV until now no cure? I rather they find the vaccine first for this one....

@charlesT, ha ha...my stakes are much higher than i ever had on any other stocks earlier...thats why keep calculating....

Good morning Wok, im totally fine with your practical assumptions

agree freetospeak derivation is much more realistic...

was only expressing numbers based on available data

thats just US$ 0.01...as an OBM...easy...

Posted by freetospeak > May 31, 2020 9:50 AM | Report Abuse

Imagine for 24 billions gloves le...each one earn 5 sen more already 1 billion more profit.

the price Maybank saying is for Jan 20 at Ex-factory at 13 cents / piece

your data is current price online i guess?


Posted by Wok > May 31, 2020 12:23 AM | Report Abuse

@probability... I hv doubt of IB's Kim Eng price of USD 0.06/pair is correct.

If we check online, one box of 100pcs of nitrile glove of TP retails at rm26~30. This is around 26~30sen per pc.

Assuming the trader/retailer takes a 40% margin/cut, which I think is already ver high for just a trader, it comes to 15.6~18/pc...not per pair. Take into consideration of transport cost of 2%~5%, ex work price is 14.8~17.2/pc and not per pair....

With this I don't think these IB guys are talking proper here...furthermore the glove industry lingo has always been per pc and not per pair....

using the reference ASP provided for Jan 20 and the ASP in March & May provided by Supermax in Analyst Briefing


Posted by Iambuyingshares > May 31, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

@probability May I know how did you come up with ASP avg of 22c/glove?

ASP Q3: 13 cent/glove
ASP Q4: 22 cent/glove

Thus revenue for Q4;

= Revenue of Q3 x (ASP Q4/ASP Q3)
= 447m x (22/13)
= 773m

the gloves ASP are rounded figures, where the ASP for Q3 is actually 12.7 cents/glove

Posted by mrstrong > May 31, 2020 12:04 AM | Report Abuse

@probability , how you count Revenue: 773m?

@wok, to help you on your derivation, please use the following:

Q3:
...

ASP avg of 13 cent/glove
Sales volume: 3.5 Billion gloves
Revenue: 447m
Costs: 352m
PBT: 95m
PAT: 72m


Q4: (assuming no change in sales volume, but purely ASP change to reflect Analyst briefing charts)
...

ASP avg of 22 cent/glove
Sales volume: 3.5 Billion gloves
Revenue: 773m
Costs: 352m
PBT: 421m
PAT: 320m

......................

I leave it to you to calculate the effects of raising throughput/sales volume to say 5 Billion gloves in Q4

Re-posting:
..........

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

They say ex-factory price of Nitrile gloves at 0.06 USD per pair from above link. This means minimum price of ASP of Supermax in Q3:

= US$0.06/pair x (0.5 pair / unit) x 4.2 (RM-US exch)
= US$0.03/unit x 4.2 (RM-US exch)
= 0.126 RM/glove
............

If you use the above ASP which is the "minimum" possible in Q3, you get max Sales volume possible for Q3:

= 447,000,000 (RM) / 0.126 (RM/glove)
= 3.5 Billion gloves sold in Q3

which is half the capacity Supermax has

@wok again.....

My statement below is incorrect. If Maybank incorrectly used 'pair' for 'unit', then price per glove in Jan 2020 was even more higher than US$ 0.03 i had used to derive throughput (it becomes US$ 0.06 per unit)

This conclusively means, it was impossible for Supermax to have sold more than 3.5 Billion gloves in Q3

and in Q4 we will see the effects of selling 6-7 Billion gloves



Posted by probability > May 30, 2020 4:16 PM | Report Abuse X

yes, i thought of the additional Incoterms factor you mentioned...thats why its extremely conservative

unless Maybank wrongly said 'pair' of gloves for 'pieces'

Posted by Wok > May 30, 2020 4:13 PM | Report Abuse

@Proabability.....now we are quite sure that OEM Ex Factory ASP is USD 0.06/pc .... this makes it around MYR 26.5sens/pc at Ex Factory.

If DDP, CIF, and OBM factor.....MYR 40sen/pc is quite realistic

Analysts unfazed about US FDA's import alert on Top Glove’s unit

May 28, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/analysts-unfazed-about-us-fdas-import-alert-top-gloves-unit

With a very diversified customer base and sales location, of which 26% of its 1HFY20 sales volume were to North American countries such as the US, Canada, Mexico and others, the research house believes that Top Glove can reroute its gloves to other countries with less stringent requirements.

..................


Appears like Supermax loosing competition from rivals Top Glove and Comfort for U.S market...

This nationwide protests in U.S, will spread the virus to every single corner , household...U.S will be center of the virus again....

@freetospeak, yes...

guess its just about 2 months away for q4 earnings release...and we dont have much trading days for supermax to rise to the reality...

@20202023, i agree...no doubt on that

discussion is on the actual sales volume vs production capacity in Q3
which indicates there could big potential for higher sales volume in Q4

@wok, yup DDP will be including customs and tariffs...easily 20% higher

yes, i thought of the additional Incoterms factor you mentioned...thats why its extremely conservative

unless Maybank wrongly said 'pair' of gloves for 'pieces'

Posted by Wok > May 30, 2020 4:13 PM | Report Abuse

@Proabability.....now we are quite sure that OEM Ex Factory ASP is USD 0.06/pc .... this makes it around MYR 26.5sens/pc at Ex Factory.

If DDP, CIF, and OBM factor.....MYR 40sen/pc is quite realistic

Hope sifu OTB also rejoin here....

Posted by Bearvsbull Bendia > May 30, 2020 4:06 PM | Report Abuse

The thing is, i did buyback but keep quiet! I am too embarrass to admit i was wrong!

If the above finding is true, your EPS will easily shoot up more than 0.40 from 0.18 estimated conservatively in Q4, due to the capacity utilization alone

thats about PAT of 500m for Q4
..............................

@freetospeak, your derivation at EPS of 0.18 at PAT of 240m should be rock bottom possible

What Wok expressed on utilzation rate does make a lot of sense

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

They say ex-factory price of Nitrile gloves at 0.06 USD per pair from above link. This means minimum price of ASP of Supermax in Q3:

= US$0.06 /pair x (0.5 pair / unit) x 4.2 (RM-US exch)
= 0.126 RM/glove
............

If you use the above ASP which is the "minimum" possible in Q3, you get max Sales volume possible for Q3:

= 447,000,000 (RM) / 0.126 (RM/glove)
= 3.5 Billion gloves sold in Q3

which is half the capacity Supermax has

Some learning exercise to you...find out what material is this:

Butadiene rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

They say 1% reduction on raw material price, will increase margin by 2-4%


Posted by High5 > May 30, 2020 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

Where they buy all the rubber? Which co has most rubber tree plantation? Rubber fr Msian rubber trees ka? Lol

ok..i got it:

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

OMG.....can someone share this please

Posted by CharlesT > May 30, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse

Anybody read Maybank's latest report on topglove (tp rm20)?

They expected net profit to increase fm rm365m (2019) to rm3.1 billion in 2021...about 900% higher

i have been telling all the while..demand will infact shoot up when lock down eases



Posted by chief999 > May 30, 2020 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

"Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association’s (MARGMA) president Denis Low tells StarBizWeek that he had seen demand for rubber gloves becoming “extraordinary” in the past few months as a result of the pandemic.

“Most manufacturers have their order books filled until next year. I expect that after the MCO ends, demand will increase even more as the other industries, such as the food industry, resume their operations in full, ” Low says"


Posted by probability > May 25, 2020 2:03 PM | Report Abuse

In my opinion, gloves demand will infact soar when a country eases lockdown. As much as other industries may benefit by the easing, gloves industry will equally benefit if not more.

The below is something to ponder deep:


- The hospitals will be operating at a much higher patients capacity who were hesitant / constrained to visit healthcare earlier due to risk of Covid 19 infections.

- imagine what happens when the airline industries start operating again? every check in counter staff & all staff (stewardess) who works there will be using gloves. Same goes to other public transport booths

- the same goes to many other industries (tourism & hotels) when they start operating as they normally do

The 6 factors to look forward which will have significant impact on earnings:
..........

1 - Higher ASP (Nitrile even greater than Latex),
2 - Higher fraction of OBM to 95%
3 - Sales>Production utilizing Q3 inventory where, some estimated Q3 sales volume is only 30% of Q3 production capacity

4 - Higher Production capacity itself due to new lines coming in,
5 - Decreasing Raw material costs (both butadiene & latex).
6 - "Switching" to 100% Nitrile production lines with significantly lower cost and also higher ASP relative to latex

so far, we had a glimpse of factor 1 & 2 only on earnings from Analyst Briefing

thanks Wok, this is very much reassuring...you have studied very well

Posted by Wok > May 29, 2020 8:22 PM | Report Abuse

@probability...another angle to test this is based on historical results during the SARs period of 2002 until 2004. Of course today's Covid is a lot worse, but back then, SARs was the most terrible.

That time, SBB's EPS for 2003 alone was 38sen p.a. Depending on which 4 trailing qtrs...it range between 30~40sen. At that time, their production capacity was 3 billion gloves p.a. and dato announced claimed that by mid 2004, they will have 5 billion.

Today, their capacity is at circa 21billion+10%...an increase of about 4.7x of their production back then. Lets assume it runs at 75%, by proportional estimates.....the EPS per qtr is already 34.6 sen. Of course there are other variable factors too such as inflation, economies of scale, severity of this pandemic etc.

What this comes to based on historical estimate, Q4 EPS above 20sen is realistic. With this, i assume many good investors here can easily deduce its real value.

but in anycase, the sales in Q3 must be at least 20-30% lesser than their production capacity in Q3

this shows a significant room for improvement on Sales number in Q4 vs Q3

@Wok, i think i may have an explanation on this...

This could be due to criteria for sales recognition where it is only done when 'delivered' as per Incoterms

during Q3, they must have had some constraints for delivering (China mainly during this time period), i.e SALES < PRODUCTION

Q4, must been easy to deliver at the rate they are producing inclusive inventory, meaning SALES > PRODUCTION

It appears whichever way you look it, every single aspect below seems much positive for Q4 vs Q3 and going forward :

- Higher ASP,
- Sales>Production,
- Higher Production capacity itself,
- Decreasing raw material costs (both butadiene & latex)
- Even lower cost due to switching to 100% Nitrile production lines


Posted by Wok > May 29, 2020 3:01 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak...there will be a time lag due to logistics/inventory if we base the assumption from production output. My estimate around 4~8 weeks lag but, eventually it will catch up and average out over the Qtr.

I am not so sure if they were really running 75% capacity utilization in the past qtrs especially Q3. With the revenue at 447.247 billion, using ASP either from min 20sen~max60sen, over max capacity of 21.75 billion +10%....it wont come to 75%. Assuming ASP 10/pc, at max it comes to around 49% utilization per qtr in Q3.

i guess they might have stated the utilization at a point in time, or at its peak of the month. I can send you the excel file to test the assumptions

supermax boss will kena whack again...luks like

Posted by manegto > May 29, 2020 3:50 PM | Report Abuse

A meeting was held by bosses of all glove makers yesterday evening and superman boss was whacked to the maximum....one of the boss told superman boss that you satu orang main semua la...kita orang tak payah main la...ini panggil fair ka?....at least kasi kita orang naik satu hari la...so guys see why superman is stagnant today...but just for
today only...

ok, thanks wok...very interesting indeed

wok, how did you attain the below info?

........
Depending on how much the asp is used, ranging between 23~60sens,

yes , wok..you should read the analyst briefing

yes, but sold and bought other stocks when market crashed earlier...


today, my portfolio is back to breakeven for 2020

congrats pjseow...MFCB is such a superb stock

thought i could get it cheap..but missed it

uncle Kossan really afraid Supermax will overtake...trying to break 9..he he

sifu John Lu touch...immediately fly!

I promote so hard...dropped earlier liao....

Extract below from their Analyst Briefing, shows how much it matters:

...................................

- All newer production lines are with 100% capacity producing Nitrile PF medical gloves

- Converted Latex PF capacity to produce Nitrile PF medical gloves started March 2020

Butadiene Rubber dropped against its own cost from (Jan-Mar) by 20%:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

and Natural Rubber is about 10% costlier than Butadiene Rubber

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-586.html


For every line they change from Latex gloves to Nitrile, theoretically their cost should go down by 30% in (Apr - Jun) compared (Jan-Mar) then.



Posted by probability > May 28, 2020 5:48 PM | Report Abuse X

@freetospeak, their cost is definitely coming down tremendously (20%)...thats something we had not considered at all

i can only advise Supermax shareholders to hold on to their shares at least till they witness the coming qtr results

the KING of gloves stocks in Bursa will be crystal clear by then

go go Mudajaya!

@freetospeak, their cost is definitely coming down tremendously (20%)...thats something we had not considered at all

i can only advise Supermax shareholders to hold on to their shares at least till they witness the coming qtr results

the KING of gloves stocks in Bursa will be crystal clear by then

Post removed.Why?

Exactly..

actually my greatest conviction for the price to rise is not the earnings nor the industry PE..

its simply because, i see the management wants it so...


Posted by freetospeak > May 28, 2020 2:11 PM | Report Abuse

probabilty bro...he also skeptical like u...lol..later also join in becoz he smells big money n concrete proof.

am i right Ricky?

their maths on evaluation is consistency on earnings (resilience) which is reflected on ROE and a relatively high ROIC to reflect competitive edge...

such stable numbers 'helps them' on their DCF variables

he wont buy...neither do Jon Choivo after posting a long article on it

dont waste your time

Posted by YTH888 > May 28, 2020 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo
Pm me, I will send some slides.

If u receive it, you will buy.

totally agree

Posted by freetospeak > May 28, 2020 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

i only trust numbers...number dont lie. total nil order now 15 billion..if they can fulfil now rite away next qtr...800 million profit...but they cannot only...so why worry..now only may already got 15 billion order....i not worry one bit.

Indeed!

https://aveovision.my/pub/media/wysiwyg/Cecile_Thai.jpg

Posted by Piratebilis > May 27, 2020 10:27 PM | Report Abuse

Miss Cecile Thai looks like the CEO of Oveovision contact lens :)

she first time buy supermax shares

Miss Cecile is very young...long way to go

i dont know what you all say...but Miss Cecile had made Supermax very very attractive today

all the PE, earnings calculations, covid cases and vaccine news........seems invisible compared to her glowing sweet gesture today

ok noted OTB