probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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2020-11-21 16:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/will-covid-vaccine-be-safe-what-scientists-want-see-n1248466

Nov. 21, 2020

A Gallup poll in November found that 58 percent of Americans say they would get a Covid-19 vaccine, up from a low of 50 percent in September. But there are still worries that the speed of developing and testing the vaccines may have compromised their scientific integrity.

........

at 95% effectiveness and 58% willing to take vaccine now in U.S, you are almost there with the herd immunity requirement of 60%


as more and more convincing data surfaces with people living normal after vaccination...and imposition of travel restriction to those not vaccinated...the willingness to take vaccine can only become stronger day by day...

Stock

2020-11-21 16:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/will-covid-vaccine-be-safe-what-scientists-want-see-n1248466

Nov. 21, 2020

A Gallup poll in November found that 58 percent of Americans say they would get a Covid-19 vaccine, up from a low of 50 percent in September. But there are still worries that the speed of developing and testing the vaccines may have compromised their scientific integrity.

........

at 95% effectiveness and 58% willing to take vaccine now in U.S, you are almost there with the herd immunity requirement of 60%


as more and more convincing data surfaces with people living normal after vaccination...and imposition of travel restriction to those not vaccinated...the willingness to take vaccine can only become stronger day by day...

News & Blogs

2020-11-21 16:39 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 16:15 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 16:12 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 16:12 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 16:11 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 16:10 | Report Abuse

Here's the Coronavirus Vaccine Maker That's Most Likely to Blow Past Pfizer and Moderna

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccine-maker-past-pfizer-moderna/

Nov 20, 2020

J&J's coronavirus vaccine candidate, though, requires only one dose.

This could give J&J a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. A single-dose vaccine would have a lower cost than a two-dose regimen. People would also be more likely to want to receive a vaccine that they only have to take once.

Johnson & Johnson also won't have the ultra-cold storage requirements that Pfizer's vaccine has. Its COVID-19 vaccine can remain stable for up to two years at around minus four degrees Fahrenheit and for up to three months at temperatures between around 35 degrees and 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition, J&J beats Moderna when it comes to production capacity. Moderna has stated that it will be able to make around 500 million doses of mRNA-1273 next year, although the biotech says that it could "possibly" up that to 1 billion doses. J&J is on track to produce more than 1 billion doses per year.

Stock

2020-11-21 15:26 | Report Abuse

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

Stock

2020-11-21 14:40 | Report Abuse

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

Stock

2020-11-21 14:39 | Report Abuse

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

Stock

2020-11-21 14:38 | Report Abuse

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

Stock

2020-11-21 14:38 | Report Abuse

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

Stock
Stock

2020-11-17 11:09 | Report Abuse

this is pandemic recovery stocks...market should realize anytime soon..

Stock

2020-11-17 11:05 | Report Abuse

yup...plenty of oil supply will maintain oil price low..however with the vaccine, demand should pick up on lctitan products...increasing the margin

ironically O&G stocks already climbing up fast with vaccine news

and yet LC titan seems confused where to go

Posted by Tkeng > Nov 17, 2020 8:14 AM | Report Abuse

@probability... Margin squeeze,... 4.1% profit on sales qr3. Still had feedstock in their inventory when naptha was high... Oil prices going to remain low for a long time. Margins may improve even with lesser volume, no?
17/11/2020 7:53 AM

Stock

2020-11-16 23:55 | Report Abuse

keyword - "will be dependent on the pandemic recovery trajectory"

Stock

2020-11-16 23:54 | Report Abuse

prospects
..........

The results of our operations for the financial year ending 31 December 2020 are expected to be primarily influenced by the following factors

(a) The demand and supply balance of petrochemical products in the market;

(b) Our ability to maximise production outputs and operational efficiency;

(c) Petrochemical product demand moves in tandem with overall global GDP growth, driven by consumption and population growth; and

(d) Feedstock prices which is correlated to crude oil prices.


The International Monetary Fund in its latest report has noted a less severe economic contraction for 2020 than it initially expected. This is following the better-than-expected 2nd quarter economic recession in major developed and emerging economies, led by strong recovery in the Chinese economy. The softened impact was also supported by the massive fiscal countermeasures and accommodative monetary policies implemented by all major economies in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nevertheless, the recovery outlook remains fragile with high degree of uncertainties for now, as it will be dependent on the pandemic recovery trajectory.

Stock

2020-11-16 23:49 | Report Abuse

Group revenue decreased by 23% (or RM 1,485.4 million) from RM 6,464.1 million to RM 4,978.7 million due to decrease in average product selling price and sales volume. The COVID-19 pandemic have affected regional economy resulting in poor business sentiment and weakened demand. Regional businesses display sign of recovery with recent
improvement seen in average product selling price and sales volume. Apart from the virus outbreak, reduction in production quantity resulting from the major statutory plant turnaround conducted in 1H 2020 has also caused the decrease in sales volume.

Stock

2020-11-01 11:12 | Report Abuse

OMG...kltower...very powerful image...
i can also see ah Thai sitting inside!

Stock

2020-11-01 11:09 | Report Abuse

recent high in cases is 575 k per day worldwide....

vaccine to bring down the cases? Wait till 2024...



Posted by freetospeak > Nov 1, 2020 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

how about if asp not coming down when supermax got 48 bilcaps oledi...
4 bil pat per qtr...u scared or not...

What!!! haven consider 15 bil us caps...
If consider ...5 bil PAT per qtr???
Super max pe 1 at 2022 at current price ?

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:49 | Report Abuse

if gloves stock dips...the whole market will...no choice..best catalyst is interest rate reduction...and think its inevitable

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:46 | Report Abuse

plenty of money to take out from financial sector...it had barely dipped

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:45 | Report Abuse

hope for interest rate cut...and fund taking out money from other stocks and add more on gloves..

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:41 | Report Abuse

and the winter is just starting...all other economic activity is going for a halt...i expect oil price to crash below 30USD/brl again...

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:40 | Report Abuse

i think its consolidating...or more like digesting how far these pandemic will go before another breakout in the share price..

If you notice the ASP on latest month from Supermax analyst briefing..it had exceeded 220USD/k gloves

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:27 | Report Abuse

this i agree...ASP decline is the trigger point..

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 31, 2020 7:26 PM | Report Abuse

The peak of asp likely to be in next q i think..or at most one more q..

When u c profit stops to increase then u know what to do

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:26 | Report Abuse

may be at least till next winter ...these spot orders will be there looks like...

further since order already booked till end 2021...whatever they produce cannot increase the inventory of the gloves worlwide..and ots indeed depleting very fast

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:24 | Report Abuse

true also...but there is just no other place to park money feels like...unless you keep it as cash...

News & Blogs

2020-10-31 19:22 | Report Abuse

sifu charles...this time may be can really extend to 2022 look like...looking how they are investing on additional capacity...

any gut feeling..insight what could be the next theme play?

O&G seems too early to go in..

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2020-10-30 22:09 | Report Abuse

Wawasan 2020...1 Malaysia....duduk rumah main saham

Stock

2020-10-12 12:37 | Report Abuse

ok, those are good picks also...but didnt notice as much as lctitan using i3's conventional explosive earnings forecast as most sifus do...with fast reaction time

hope for the best


Posted by Choivo Capital > Oct 12, 2020 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

Probability.

Timecom, Opensys, RCECAP leh?

Stock

2020-10-10 13:52 | Report Abuse

If coming qtr results hit 300m....need to upgrade Jon to junior sifu already....

it will be his first pick which truly delivers

its a big crucial test for Jon now

Stock

2020-09-19 22:59 | Report Abuse

all IB will be revising their TP soon

Posted by pjseow > Sep 19, 2020 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

RHB is the only analyst used DCF to compute tgt price which is 9.50. The question of what PE.and which year earning to use.to compute tgt price should not arise since all future earnings.from 2021 till infinity are considered . We can only question their profit assumptions , discount and growth rates after.2023. In my opinion, the assumption of 2023 earning.at.4.478 billion is on the high side and the terminal growth.rate of 1 % is too low . The discount.rate of 7 %
is fair .

News & Blogs

2020-09-10 17:26 | Report Abuse

I respect CGS-CIMB the most. Once lose credibility, not easy to retain back - pariah prem the writer for MacQ

Stock

2020-09-07 12:41 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56901.jsp

Petronas’ 2Q20 core loss stood at-RM0.7bn (1Q20: +RM8.5bn, 2Q19: +RM14.5bn), brought 1H20 core profit to RM7.8bn (-73% YoY). The weak results were primarily due to lower crude oil prices. 1H20 capex spending of RM14.8bn only constituted 37% of its planned capex target of c.RM40bn in FY20. While Brent crude and LNG prices have recovered from its lows, demand for crude and LNG is still severely impacted by Covid-19. We believe that Brent Crude prices would need to average above USD55 for at least 1 year in order for Petronas to revert to its pre -Covid-19 capex spending level of about c.RM50bn.

Reiterate NEUTRAL view on the sector, our top pick for the sector is Armada (BUY; TP: RM0.60) as its FPSO earnings are expected to remain strong, while its current valuations are still undemanding. We are keeping our average oil prices forecast unchanged at USD44/bbl in 2020.

Stock

2020-09-04 11:39 |

Post removed.Why?

News & Blogs
Stock

2020-09-04 10:53 | Report Abuse

dont wait till it turns green...

Stock

2020-09-03 22:09 | Report Abuse

thanks for the info pjseow

Stock

2020-09-03 20:23 | Report Abuse

Brent was trading below $30/brl in April - June qtr.....even hitting below $20/brl!....and yet BA delivered excellent performance.

This stock no longer has any link with oil price......except those clueless speculators who got in linking to it...

These are sustainable earnings unlike any other stock you can find in Bursa under Covid pandemic......

could very well be the cheapest stock in bursa in terms of Cash flow vs Market cap

never ever let go
.................