Hope sifu OTB also rejoin here....

Posted by Bearvsbull Bendia > May 30, 2020 4:06 PM | Report Abuse

The thing is, i did buyback but keep quiet! I am too embarrass to admit i was wrong!

If the above finding is true, your EPS will easily shoot up more than 0.40 from 0.18 estimated conservatively in Q4, due to the capacity utilization alone

thats about PAT of 500m for Q4
..............................

@freetospeak, your derivation at EPS of 0.18 at PAT of 240m should be rock bottom possible

What Wok expressed on utilzation rate does make a lot of sense

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

They say ex-factory price of Nitrile gloves at 0.06 USD per pair from above link. This means minimum price of ASP of Supermax in Q3:

= US$0.06 /pair x (0.5 pair / unit) x 4.2 (RM-US exch)
= 0.126 RM/glove
............

If you use the above ASP which is the "minimum" possible in Q3, you get max Sales volume possible for Q3:

= 447,000,000 (RM) / 0.126 (RM/glove)
= 3.5 Billion gloves sold in Q3

which is half the capacity Supermax has

Some learning exercise to you...find out what material is this:

Butadiene rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

They say 1% reduction on raw material price, will increase margin by 2-4%


Posted by High5 > May 30, 2020 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

Where they buy all the rubber? Which co has most rubber tree plantation? Rubber fr Msian rubber trees ka? Lol

ok..i got it:

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

OMG.....can someone share this please

Posted by CharlesT > May 30, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse

Anybody read Maybank's latest report on topglove (tp rm20)?

They expected net profit to increase fm rm365m (2019) to rm3.1 billion in 2021...about 900% higher

i have been telling all the while..demand will infact shoot up when lock down eases



Posted by chief999 > May 30, 2020 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

"Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association’s (MARGMA) president Denis Low tells StarBizWeek that he had seen demand for rubber gloves becoming “extraordinary” in the past few months as a result of the pandemic.

“Most manufacturers have their order books filled until next year. I expect that after the MCO ends, demand will increase even more as the other industries, such as the food industry, resume their operations in full, ” Low says"


Posted by probability > May 25, 2020 2:03 PM | Report Abuse

In my opinion, gloves demand will infact soar when a country eases lockdown. As much as other industries may benefit by the easing, gloves industry will equally benefit if not more.

The below is something to ponder deep:


- The hospitals will be operating at a much higher patients capacity who were hesitant / constrained to visit healthcare earlier due to risk of Covid 19 infections.

- imagine what happens when the airline industries start operating again? every check in counter staff & all staff (stewardess) who works there will be using gloves. Same goes to other public transport booths

- the same goes to many other industries (tourism & hotels) when they start operating as they normally do

The 6 factors to look forward which will have significant impact on earnings:
..........

1 - Higher ASP (Nitrile even greater than Latex),
2 - Higher fraction of OBM to 95%
3 - Sales>Production utilizing Q3 inventory where, some estimated Q3 sales volume is only 30% of Q3 production capacity

4 - Higher Production capacity itself due to new lines coming in,
5 - Decreasing Raw material costs (both butadiene & latex).
6 - "Switching" to 100% Nitrile production lines with significantly lower cost and also higher ASP relative to latex

so far, we had a glimpse of factor 1 & 2 only on earnings from Analyst Briefing

thanks Wok, this is very much reassuring...you have studied very well

Posted by Wok > May 29, 2020 8:22 PM | Report Abuse

@probability...another angle to test this is based on historical results during the SARs period of 2002 until 2004. Of course today's Covid is a lot worse, but back then, SARs was the most terrible.

That time, SBB's EPS for 2003 alone was 38sen p.a. Depending on which 4 trailing qtrs...it range between 30~40sen. At that time, their production capacity was 3 billion gloves p.a. and dato announced claimed that by mid 2004, they will have 5 billion.

Today, their capacity is at circa 21billion+10%...an increase of about 4.7x of their production back then. Lets assume it runs at 75%, by proportional estimates.....the EPS per qtr is already 34.6 sen. Of course there are other variable factors too such as inflation, economies of scale, severity of this pandemic etc.

What this comes to based on historical estimate, Q4 EPS above 20sen is realistic. With this, i assume many good investors here can easily deduce its real value.

but in anycase, the sales in Q3 must be at least 20-30% lesser than their production capacity in Q3

this shows a significant room for improvement on Sales number in Q4 vs Q3

@Wok, i think i may have an explanation on this...

This could be due to criteria for sales recognition where it is only done when 'delivered' as per Incoterms

during Q3, they must have had some constraints for delivering (China mainly during this time period), i.e SALES < PRODUCTION

Q4, must been easy to deliver at the rate they are producing inclusive inventory, meaning SALES > PRODUCTION

It appears whichever way you look it, every single aspect below seems much positive for Q4 vs Q3 and going forward :

- Higher ASP,
- Sales>Production,
- Higher Production capacity itself,
- Decreasing raw material costs (both butadiene & latex)
- Even lower cost due to switching to 100% Nitrile production lines


Posted by Wok > May 29, 2020 3:01 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak...there will be a time lag due to logistics/inventory if we base the assumption from production output. My estimate around 4~8 weeks lag but, eventually it will catch up and average out over the Qtr.

I am not so sure if they were really running 75% capacity utilization in the past qtrs especially Q3. With the revenue at 447.247 billion, using ASP either from min 20sen~max60sen, over max capacity of 21.75 billion +10%....it wont come to 75%. Assuming ASP 10/pc, at max it comes to around 49% utilization per qtr in Q3.

i guess they might have stated the utilization at a point in time, or at its peak of the month. I can send you the excel file to test the assumptions

supermax boss will kena whack again...luks like

Posted by manegto > May 29, 2020 3:50 PM | Report Abuse

A meeting was held by bosses of all glove makers yesterday evening and superman boss was whacked to the maximum....one of the boss told superman boss that you satu orang main semua la...kita orang tak payah main la...ini panggil fair ka?....at least kasi kita orang naik satu hari la...so guys see why superman is stagnant today...but just for
today only...

ok, thanks wok...very interesting indeed

wok, how did you attain the below info?

........
Depending on how much the asp is used, ranging between 23~60sens,

yes , wok..you should read the analyst briefing

yes, but sold and bought other stocks when market crashed earlier...


today, my portfolio is back to breakeven for 2020

congrats pjseow...MFCB is such a superb stock

thought i could get it cheap..but missed it

uncle Kossan really afraid Supermax will overtake...trying to break 9..he he

sifu John Lu touch...immediately fly!

I promote so hard...dropped earlier liao....

Extract below from their Analyst Briefing, shows how much it matters:

...................................

- All newer production lines are with 100% capacity producing Nitrile PF medical gloves

- Converted Latex PF capacity to produce Nitrile PF medical gloves started March 2020

Butadiene Rubber dropped against its own cost from (Jan-Mar) by 20%:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

and Natural Rubber is about 10% costlier than Butadiene Rubber

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-586.html


For every line they change from Latex gloves to Nitrile, theoretically their cost should go down by 30% in (Apr - Jun) compared (Jan-Mar) then.



Posted by probability > May 28, 2020 5:48 PM | Report Abuse X

@freetospeak, their cost is definitely coming down tremendously (20%)...thats something we had not considered at all

i can only advise Supermax shareholders to hold on to their shares at least till they witness the coming qtr results

the KING of gloves stocks in Bursa will be crystal clear by then

go go Mudajaya!

@freetospeak, their cost is definitely coming down tremendously (20%)...thats something we had not considered at all

i can only advise Supermax shareholders to hold on to their shares at least till they witness the coming qtr results

the KING of gloves stocks in Bursa will be crystal clear by then

Post removed.Why?

Exactly..

actually my greatest conviction for the price to rise is not the earnings nor the industry PE..

its simply because, i see the management wants it so...


Posted by freetospeak > May 28, 2020 2:11 PM | Report Abuse

probabilty bro...he also skeptical like u...lol..later also join in becoz he smells big money n concrete proof.

am i right Ricky?

their maths on evaluation is consistency on earnings (resilience) which is reflected on ROE and a relatively high ROIC to reflect competitive edge...

such stable numbers 'helps them' on their DCF variables

he wont buy...neither do Jon Choivo after posting a long article on it

dont waste your time

Posted by YTH888 > May 28, 2020 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo
Pm me, I will send some slides.

If u receive it, you will buy.

totally agree

Posted by freetospeak > May 28, 2020 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

i only trust numbers...number dont lie. total nil order now 15 billion..if they can fulfil now rite away next qtr...800 million profit...but they cannot only...so why worry..now only may already got 15 billion order....i not worry one bit.

Indeed!

https://aveovision.my/pub/media/wysiwyg/Cecile_Thai.jpg

Posted by Piratebilis > May 27, 2020 10:27 PM | Report Abuse

Miss Cecile Thai looks like the CEO of Oveovision contact lens :)

she first time buy supermax shares

Miss Cecile is very young...long way to go

i dont know what you all say...but Miss Cecile had made Supermax very very attractive today

all the PE, earnings calculations, covid cases and vaccine news........seems invisible compared to her glowing sweet gesture today

ok noted OTB

break 7 today itself look like

tomorrow open above 7...

The fact that Supermax actively switching their lines to Nitrile gloves means they are going to have tremendously lower production cost for the same output...

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

suggest not to attempt calculating this one


Posted by CharlesT > May 27, 2020 1:28 PM | Report Abuse

I calculate n i see the same outcome as freetospeak n i also very scare with my hands shaking....lol

thanks for sharing freetospeak, very confident with your calculation

IB will be coming with another new TP soon.....stay tuned

another excellent comment

Posted by dxbman > May 26, 2020 9:47 PM | Report Abuse

When oil price keep going up but O&G stock prices going down, that's not a good sign.

When everybody is talking about vaccines, covid-19 under control and opening up the economy but glove stock prices keep going up, that's a good sign for glove stocks.

Post removed.Why?

may be both riverstone and TG close 20% up today

very likely..

Posted by Maxam > May 26, 2020 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove Singapore : 4.44 SGD +0.55 (+14.14%)
Riverstone : 2.15 SGD +0.28 (+14.97%)
Wow! Matching percentage up!

Same fate for Supermx tomorrow?
Supermx : 6.55 MYR + 0.805 (+14%)

We wait and see.

think first before calling another idiot

posted by David Gunter > May 26, 2020 12:40 AM | Report Abuse

And we are in the UK? Idiot

Posted by Dynasty > May 25, 2020 11:29 PM | Report Abuse

Note: For UK, all PPE products including
medical gloves are exempt from both
Purchase/Import VAT and all Sales VAT,
both of which are at 20%; effective from
1/5/2020 to 31/7/2020 after which it
will be reviewed again.

this will have explosive effects on Supermax Aurelia margins then

20% is huge!


Posted by Dynasty > May 25, 2020 11:29 PM | Report Abuse

Note: For UK, all PPE products including
medical gloves are exempt from both
Purchase/Import VAT and all Sales VAT,
both of which are at 20%; effective from
1/5/2020 to 31/7/2020 after which it
will be reviewed again.

yes, after they make it mandatory to wear gloves in every manufacturing, tourism, hotel, restraunts, airports, public transport (bus, train) etc....

Posted by YPheng > May 25, 2020 10:41 PM | Report Abuse

I own supermx and TG shares especially TG since its IPO. Would you all think that Government would impose Windfall Tax on glove companies ?

all the grocery staff we buy from the wet market...and even food packages being delivered to home ...have high risk of containing the virus...

this may be the only source of spread

It should be made mandatory to handle it with gloves

Gloves protect you more than masks, say experts

Touching the face with contaminated hands is the most likely way in which you will catch coronavirus, occupational hygiene professor says

5 May 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/gloves-protect-masks-say-experts/

Wearing gloves offers more protection against catching coronavirus than wearing a mask, an expert in occupational hygiene has said.

This is because touching a contaminated surface and then your face is the most common way to catch the virus and studies have shown that people who wear gloves touch their face less, according to John Cherrie, emeritus professor of human health at Heriot-Watt University.

Face masks, by contrast, provide minimal protection to the wearer, although they can help to shield other people if the wearer is infected, he said.

Prof Cherrie and Sean Semple, an associate professor at the University of Stirling, wrote: "We can become infected in a number of ways.

"The three most likely routes are from mucus droplets from coughs and sneezes that land directly on our faces; the transfer of virus particles from contaminated surfaces to our nose, mouth or eyes through hand-to-mouth contacts; and by inhaling very small droplets of contaminated mucus suspended in the air.

"The most important route is via contaminated hands."
...................................................

Masks provide little protection, he added. "I see people wearing masks but 95 per cent will get no benefit - either there will be no virus in the air in the first place or the mask will not be fitted properly.

New Covid-19 cluster detected at KL construction site with 44 cases
NATION

Monday, 25 May 2020

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/05/25/new-covid-19-cluster-detected-at-kl-construction-site-with-44-cases

PUTRAJAYA (Bernama): The Ministry of Health (MOH) has detected a new Covid-19 cluster at a construction site in Kuala Lumpur after 44 cases were reported.

Without giving further information about the cluster, Health director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah urged construction companies to pay attention not only to the standard operating procedures (SOPs) at worksites but also to workers’ accommodations.

"Our studies show that most probably (it happened because) the foreign workers are staying in confined or cramped spaces. That is the main factor for the spread of infection among them,” he said at a daily Covid-19 media conference here Monday (May 25).

Dr Noor Hisham said even though worksite SOPs had been provided to construction companies, they should also focus on other related aspects.

"It is important to also look at their (workers’) accommodation and how they live there. For example, in Masjid India, 30 workers were staying together in one small flat,” he said.

He said construction companies should look at other factors besides complying with the SOPS because living in confined areas is one of the causes for the virus to spread.

"We (MOH) believe that narrow spaces are one of the important factors that should be delved into and (let’s) look at how social distancing can be implemented. Today we don’t have the vaccine, but the ‘vaccine’ is safe distancing,” he said.

..................

Vaccine is GLOVES actually....

Top Glove going to report 215m

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysian-banks-cheaper-glovemakers-mania-continues

RHB Research analyst Alan Lim expects Top Glove to deliver a strong set of third-quarter results (3QFY2020), with its profit to jump 85% quarter on quarter to RM215 million.

His optimism is based on four factors: higher average selling prices (ASPs) driven by the tight demand-supply dynamic, strong volume growth, favourable foreign exchange, and lower raw material prices, particularly butadiene.

Lim also highlights that the impact of higher ASPs is a powerful boost to the bottom line, given little increase in production costs.