walao..what an opportunist Dr. Wee

Though you have to offset the Debt with the free cashflow (from depreciation) later, it gives enormous opportunity to finance new investment.

since the profit covers the interest cost of the 75% debt finance.

Correct me if am wrong on a simple fact here:
............................................

As long the IPP guarantees a profit, JAKS at 40% stake will derive depreciation cash flow of:

(US$ 1.87 Billion / 25 years) x 40%
= US$ 30 Million
= RM 126 Million ( @ US-RM ex 4.2)

If management only commits 120 Million @ 30% stakes, 40% will be 160 Million profit.

So you have potential 286 Million free cash flow per annum currently just with 120 Million profit estimation.

That is 1/3 of the market cap currently right?
.............................................

I guess we are definitely not promising moon & stars here.

This is how you can get your evil objective done and die as a saint....well done Tun.

I hope this is final.....

Ok noted OTB.

At current expectation of EVN, they are targeting 4000 hrs in less than 6 months itself, you add another 3600 for the next half (avg rate of 7200/year), you end up at 7600 hrs per year.

So, there could be a lot of potential there.

@OTB, on 7238 hrs, it would be something that is easily achievable as proven by Vinh Tan 1. My query to the management would be, what was their 12% IRR based on - was it based on 6500 hrs operating hours?

If you see the link below from DK66:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-12-09-story245519-Jaks_Resources_Higher_Expected_Investment_Returns_from_JHDP.jsp


Management Guidance

Jaks' CEO Andy Ang has indicated during the recent AGM that the power purchase agreement and hence earnings estimate of JHDP was formulated on the basis of 6500 annual utilization hours.

Therefore, management guidance of 8 years payback period and 12% IRR were based on 6500 annual utilization hours.

.......

If the above is true....it means we have plenty of room for higher IRR.

The IRR will easily increase by 1.4% for every rise of 300 hrs in operation from 6500 hrs. At 7200, IRR will be about 15%.

I agree PH is not clean...LGE was already when came....no one is clean....but at least they will lead to a cleaner path.....at least the current set up will prevent them from getting dirtier..

Tun did not even give them a chance to freely decide...

productivity of a country cannot be created by thin air...it requires hardwork , meritrocracy, competence...the country has no capable intelligent leaders....at the least create a room to cultivate one....

with UMNO i see no hope to cultivate...

how sure the UMNO will not take care of their own interest more than the country?

izok, how certain that now you can prevent another Najib from forming?

to all the Malays...who are sided to UMNO.....you had wasted a precious opportunity to bring the country into an economic power...

with current education system...and with current religious hypocrisy in Malaysia.... your neighbours will be far far greater than you.

Post removed.Why?

the no.1 asshole is Tun...there is a deep hatred against other race in him....

true racist

@pjseow...

China infections rate had reduced tremendously... we have only Iran, Italy and South korea as a headache now...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Iran is as good as self quarantined..and has no economic value...

The moment the count stops rising in Italy and South Korea...war on virus is as good as over...and DJIA will recover fast..

hopefully malaysian politics will also - though it has no whatsoever connection with jaks power plant...other than weakening ringgit further...

@ATT31786, guessed so DK66 is a man...

elbrutus, OTB said 'soon' only...date is not fixed yet.

Posted by OTB > Feb 28, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse

The management of Jaks will hold analyst briefing soon, I was informed that I will be invited to attend this briefing.
I think DK66 should attend this analyst briefing.
Thank you.

his hardwork will pay...not your mockery

Important extract from DK66's article:
...............

What would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks) if the one off impairments were taken out?

It would be RM44m (18m + 11m + 30m/2) in Q4 2019

RM44m
.....

Important extract from DK66's article update:
...............

What would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks) if the one off impairments were taken out?

It would be RM44m (18m + 11m + 30m/2) in Q4 2019

RM44m
.....

also:
.....

It is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours)

also:
.....

It is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours)

Key takeaway from above article:
................................

Hai Duong is major contributor for 2020 - 28% of the inadequate supply needed by EVN and they ere expecting minimum 7200 hrs operation.

Adding more than 4300 MW to electricity sources in 2020

28/02/2020

http://baochinhphu.vn/doanh-nghiep/bo-sung-hon-4300-mw-vao-nguon-dien-trong-nam-2020/388637.vgp

In 2020, it is expected that the total capacity of the new power source will be put into operation at only 4,329 MW while the special load growth rate in the peak months of the dry season will require a lot of effort. There is a big demand for electricity in meeting the electricity demand for socio-economic development and production and daily life of people.

According to the prediction of Vietnam Electricity (EVN), in 2020, the electricity production of the whole system will be 261.456 billion kWh, an increase of 8.97%, of which, electricity production and purchase of EVN is 251 , 6 billion kWh; maximum capacity (Pmax) reached 41,237MW, an increase of 7.81% compared to 2019.

EVN said that, based on the calculation of electricity supply - demand in 2020, it is the task of ensuring electricity supply, ensuring power supply. the 2020 dry season will face many difficulties and challenges, especially in the context of unfavorable weather.

Compared with the approved electricity system operation plan, there are some concerns, such as: the expected hydroelectricity output is lower than 2.67 billion kWh due to the water flow to the hydroelectric reservoirs. 65% lower than frequency; gas output for electricity generation continues to decrease; The electricity generated from gas sources is expected to be 408 million kWh lower than planned.

Meanwhile, the total new power capacity expected to come into operation in 2020 is only 4,329 MW, including: Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power 1,200 MW; 1,138 MW hydroelectricity; wind power of 118 MW; solar power 1,873 MW. Coal and gas thermal power sources will have to mobilize maximum continuously in the dry season as well as the whole year 2020, no more provisions.

Therefore, the electricity system has many potential risks of not ensuring electricity supply in case of risks of fuel source.
To ensure adequate supply of electricity for socio-economic development, in addition to sources mobilized from hydroelectricity, coal-fired thermal power, gas, renewable energy, ... the electricity industry is expected to mobilize up to 3,397 billion kWh from power sources. It is expected to mobilize about 3,153 billion kWh of oil-fired thermal power sources in the dry season (from March to June) in the dry season.

In fact, EVN had to mobilize oil thermoelectricity right in January to regulate and keep hydropower plants to ensure adequate supply of electricity for the load demand. EVN is also expected to increase mobilization from coal-fired thermal power sources of 1.9 billion kWh, mainly from new coal-fired thermal power plants (thermal power plants) and those currently undergoing pilot operation. Combustion is also an important component, the percentage of participation in the source structure is about 13% in capacity and 18% in output.

To overcome these difficulties, EVN has directed its member units to concentrate on ensuring electricity supply for six months of the dry season 2020, without leaving electricity shortages in all situations. To ensure the progress of investment in power source and grid projects on schedule, with priority given to projects completed in the first six months of 2020, especially key projects supplying electricity to the South, TP Hanoi and other important loads.

Take the initiative in reviewing the situation of investment in power grid projects according to the planning and annual plans to make adjustments suitable to actual needs, meeting the needs of new power transmission and power supply of investors. from.Focusing on directing the National Load Dispatch Center to regularly update input parameters such as additional charge, hydrology, fuel supply, source schedule, ..., calculating the balance between electricity supply and demand to promptly report to the Group. At the same time, optimally operating the electricity system, getting ready for power supply plans and handling options when incidents occur; rational arrangement for maintenance of units in 2020.

Accordingly, EVN has assigned plans for thermal power plants (thermal power plants) on a monthly basis and for the whole 2020 to enable units to proactively prepare operation plans. and prepare the fuel. At the same time, it is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours) and the annual output (the number of hours of operation is more than 7,200 hours).

Key takeaway from above article:
................................

Hai Duong is major contributor for 2020 - 28% of the inadequate supply needed by EVN and they ere expecting minimum 7200 hrs operation.

Adding more than 4300 MW to electricity sources in 2020

28/02/2020

http://baochinhphu.vn/doanh-nghiep/bo-sung-hon-4300-mw-vao-nguon-dien-trong-nam-2020/388637.vgp


In 2020, it is expected that the total capacity of the new power source will be put into operation at only 4,329 MW while the special load growth rate in the peak months of the dry season will require a lot of effort. There is a big demand for electricity in meeting the electricity demand for socio-economic development and production and daily life of people.

According to the prediction of Vietnam Electricity (EVN), in 2020, the electricity production of the whole system will be 261.456 billion kWh, an increase of 8.97%, of which, electricity production and purchase of EVN is 251 , 6 billion kWh; maximum capacity (Pmax) reached 41,237MW, an increase of 7.81% compared to 2019.

EVN said that, based on the calculation of electricity supply - demand in 2020, it is the task of ensuring electricity supply, ensuring power supply. the 2020 dry season will face many difficulties and challenges, especially in the context of unfavorable weather.

Compared with the approved electricity system operation plan, there are some concerns, such as: the expected hydroelectricity output is lower than 2.67 billion kWh due to the water flow to the hydroelectric reservoirs. 65% lower than frequency; gas output for electricity generation continues to decrease; The electricity generated from gas sources is expected to be 408 million kWh lower than planned.

Meanwhile, the total new power capacity expected to come into operation in 2020 is only 4,329 MW, including: Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power 1,200 MW; 1,138 MW hydroelectricity; wind power of 118 MW; solar power 1,873 MW. Coal and gas thermal power sources will have to mobilize maximum continuously in the dry season as well as the whole year 2020, no more provisions.

Therefore, the electricity system has many potential risks of not ensuring electricity supply in case of risks of fuel source.
To ensure adequate supply of electricity for socio-economic development, in addition to sources mobilized from hydroelectricity, coal-fired thermal power, gas, renewable energy, ... the electricity industry is expected to mobilize up to 3,397 billion kWh from power sources. It is expected to mobilize about 3,153 billion kWh of oil-fired thermal power sources in the dry season (from March to June) in the dry season.

In fact, EVN had to mobilize oil thermoelectricity right in January to regulate and keep hydropower plants to ensure adequate supply of electricity for the load demand. EVN is also expected to increase mobilization from coal-fired thermal power sources of 1.9 billion kWh, mainly from new coal-fired thermal power plants (thermal power plants) and those currently undergoing pilot operation. Combustion is also an important component, the percentage of participation in the source structure is about 13% in capacity and 18% in output.

To overcome these difficulties, EVN has directed its member units to concentrate on ensuring electricity supply for six months of the dry season 2020, without leaving electricity shortages in all situations. To ensure the progress of investment in power source and grid projects on schedule, with priority given to projects completed in the first six months of 2020, especially key projects supplying electricity to the South, TP Hanoi and other important loads.

Take the initiative in reviewing the situation of investment in power grid projects according to the planning and annual plans to make adjustments suitable to actual needs, meeting the needs of new power transmission and power supply of investors. from.Focusing on directing the National Load Dispatch Center to regularly update input parameters such as additional charge, hydrology, fuel supply, source schedule, ..., calculating the balance between electricity supply and demand to promptly report to the Group. At the same time, optimally operating the electricity system, getting ready for power supply plans and handling options when incidents occur; rational arrangement for maintenance of units in 2020.

Accordingly, EVN has assigned plans for thermal power plants (thermal power plants) on a monthly basis and for the whole 2020 to enable units to proactively prepare operation plans. and prepare the fuel. At the same time, it is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours) and the annual output (the number of hours of operation is more than 7,200 hours).

hope this is the worst day of the year 2020 for the market

Prospect
.........

Despite the slow economic growth in Malaysia, the Group will continue to actively participate in open biddings of both public and private projects to replenish the order book given the Group vast experience and competitiveness in the construction segment. In addition, the Group's total order book of RM1.4 billion as at the reporting date is expected to sustain its operations over the next two years.


The Group's investment in its associate, RKM had already been fully impaired and the Group consequently no longer equity accounted further losses in RKM except for the adjustments as explained above.

Nevertheless, management is still involved with the investment in IPP in India via the Group's 26% associate RKM, where all 4 units of the IPP development have achieved commercial operation status. The proposed resolution plan for RKM is currently being reviewed by its lenders.

The Group has been notified on 1 February 2020 that RKM has commenced power supply to the State of Telangana pursuant to the Pilot Agreement entered into between RKM and PTC India Limited for the supply of 550MW power.

Fed interest rate will be down soon, coronavirus cases will become nil and AI elected as PM.......from perfect storm to perfect JAKpot coming soon.

qq3 is not man i heard...he hides underneath skirt or something like that...

DK66 is definitely a man - simply because he is invested in Power generating plant. Its full of machinery & steam boiler which blows....and rotating turbine with alternating current generator. Makes men gets excited..

Rarely women can appreciate this.

I think he has the patience of a woman cos he is from accounting & finance background who has the patience and due diligence to carefully see all the numbers.


Posted by SarifahSelinder > Feb 28, 2020 3:13 PM | Report Abuse

DK66 not a lady?? Sarifah really sangsi

DK66 has d patience n meticulous of a lady


Posted by DK66 > Feb 28, 2020 9:24 AM | Report Abuse

I m not in KL

to all the naysayers, just ask one question to yourself:

Did any of you manage to find any error in DK66 earnings and cashflow estimation - did Mong Duong 2 (perfectly identical plant with BOT contract) financial reports contradict his findings?

.................


The argument here on JAKS is its future cash flow. If you guys have nothing to dispute on that...then its all just tin kosong statements here.

Just admit it....Dow Jones, Malaysian politics and Coronavirus has zero effects on its future cash flow.

unlike others stocks in Bursa / Globally - JAKS future cash flow is indeed immune to all the above factors.

its a plain precious opportunity here

Death rate per day - will become nil soon. Infections rate will reach a plateau in a month and very likely a vaccine/strong medicine to manage it will be found by then.

China could bring down from 4000 infection a day to 350 with limited hospitals & resources.

When its global, each country will have abundant resources to handle such small counts in each country.

It will always remain here and there...but total infections a day (worldwide) will unlikely to increase further.

look at the new cases: Only China & Korea...having a few hundred cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

could not figure why market is behaving like this. U.S market needed a correction i guess...it was long overdue..and this virus was just a trigger.

we understand that the completion of its first unit which was initially thought to be by end-2019 is now postponed due to Covid-19. The commercial operation date (COD) is now targeted for 3QFY20,

............

since when was the commercial operation targeted end 2019?

The placement to the grid is as always as planned Mid March 20 and commercial operation by May/June 2020.

How the heck coronavirus can have effects on a targetted operation end of 2019 when it only came to know early 2020?

How can coronavirus effect scheduled plant operation? Vietnam is one of the best country in terms of control placed and the infections there had become nil for sometime.

exploitative and misleading justification from PB

Post removed.Why?

Look at China's counts...and current death rate. It has reduced tremendously...almost becoming nil.

Global market spooked just because it entered Europe and many other countries...current alertness globally will definitely be able to control the spread.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1

After adjusting for impairment of goodwill (20m) and investment property (10m), the Property segment actually reported a profit of RM1m.

Construction profit before impairment of receivables (27m+11m) RM38m

.........................

@DK66, If the above impairments are taken out, what would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks)?

To all Jaks shareholders, see what was MFCB's earnings and cash flow for qtr Sept 19 which was announced on 18th Nov and the price it was trading then.

Also, see how market reacted on 19 Nov. Do not allow opportunist to buy from you cheap.

DJ can collapse, coronavirus can become a pandemic, malaysian politics and country economy can go down the drain...

But nothing can stop the Vietnam power plant from generating power.
...........................................................

...that's REAL and for bloody 25 years.

To all Jaks shareholders, see what was MFCB's earnings and cash flow for qtr Sept 19 which was announced on 18th Nov and the price it was trading then.

Also, see how market reacted on 19 Nov. Do not allow opportunist to buy from you cheap.

DJ can collapse, coronavirus can become a pandemic, malaysian politics and country economy can go down the drain...

But nothing can stop the Vietnam power plant from generating power.
...........................................................

...that's REAL and for bloody 25 years.

well said Zaid Ibrahim - totally agree

next qtr would be even more beautiful, % completion will become even more aggressive

i hope market is no longer that dumb to sell tomorrow....look at the cash flow:

Operating profit before working capital changes 9 months ended Nov 19': 136.268 M

Operating profit before working capital changes 12 months ended Dec 19': 181.591 M

Difference: 45.3 Million (for qtr Dec 19')
------------------------

Its just 2 weeks away from placing the power to the grid (the cash cow)..It is the start of a long 25 years journey milking cash.

Such utility business is where the investors will flood in a uncertain future of global market.

ask the stubborn old cock to give a way....

what stimulus is this? when you cannot make profit what difference does tax cut or deferment makes?

when you had poison the whole country...this feels like a drop of water in a raging fire..

race religion politics is definitely something the country needs to move away from....but we still need someone to voice..whistle blow the wrongs...

where would the check and balance be then?

Extract below posted on MFCB forum. very interesting info

JAKS is 1200 MW at 30% stake - potential 40%

Posted by The_Reds > Feb 25, 2020 7:05 PM | Report Abuse

"During the period to 31 December 2019, Électricité du Laos (“EDL”) was able to evacuate only up to 85 MW of power while awaiting the completion of the new 500KV transmission line to
Cambodia."

This contributed to pre-tax profit of RM29.7 million inaugural income from energy sales.

The max capacity of Don Sahong is 260 MW, so u all can roughly guess the energy sales profit for next quarter