probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

Followers

22

Following

2

Blog Posts

14

Threads

14,470

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
14,470
Past 30 days
10
Past 7 days
4
Today
4

User Comments
Stock

2020-02-06 22:27 | Report Abuse

TF owns 1/3 of AA....he is more concern on "shareholder's interest" than any other fcuking shareholders here....

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 22:27 | Report Abuse

TF owns 1/3 of AA....he is more concern on "shareholder's interest" than any other fcuking shareholders here....

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 22:15 | Report Abuse

yes Fortune...double whammy event...you can never find such cheap sale ever for AA!

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 22:09 | Report Abuse

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 17:23 | Report Abuse

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 17:23 | Report Abuse

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

Stock

2020-02-06 16:44 | Report Abuse

buy the way...how fcuk does the business gets affected by his 'offset' now?

only thing remains now is the virus....

even that is already 'offset' by the cheap fuel....

cure is just around the corner

Stock

2020-02-06 16:41 | Report Abuse

Tun M words are final...Lateefa will never refute Tun

Stock

2020-02-06 16:27 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow market will digest and open above 1.30

Stock

2020-02-06 16:25 | Report Abuse

If crook Trump can be the president of U.S...

will people ever hate Tony?

No way....cheap flight will buy everyone's heart

Stock

2020-02-06 16:20 | Report Abuse

Human nature...past will be forgotten....

Stock

2020-02-06 16:18 | Report Abuse

with this kinda cheap fuel...AirAsia will give Free Flights...

Stock

2020-02-06 16:16 | Report Abuse

Virus fear will fade.....
Tony mistakes will be forgotten...

.........

AirAsia will fly...

Stock

2020-02-06 16:14 | Report Abuse

You know what happens when wall breaks...

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 16:12 | Report Abuse

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 16:09 | Report Abuse

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 16:09 | Report Abuse

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

News & Blogs

2020-02-06 16:09 | Report Abuse

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/2020-02-06-story-h1483078275-PM_on_AirAsia_Airbus_scandal_It_s_normal_to_have_offsets_in_business.jsp

Stock

2020-02-06 16:08 | Report Abuse

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/2020-02-06-story-h1483078275-PM_on_AirAsia_Airbus_scandal_It_s_normal_to_have_offsets_in_business.jsp

Stock

2020-02-06 10:31 | Report Abuse

2 minute video for layman to understand the thermal power plant below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI7AhajfhWE

The first part (the most difficult part):
...............

The furnace boiler operation by burning the coal and using the heat to boil water for Steam generation is done and tested.

The second part:
................

The steam Turbine for Power generation is just waiting to be fed by the steam to turn the turbine and generate power.


commissioning now is just about ensuring reliability of the system before connecting to the grid...

Stock

2020-02-05 23:23 | Report Abuse

i think they meant:
...................

"complete set of "upstream units for the start-up" and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled"

instead of:

"complete set of "follow-up units The start-up" and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled"

.................

the google translator may not be that accurate in translating....

but, the turbine and generator set is already a highly engineered package like a car engine...there is nothing much to be tested & commissioned further...its just about passing the steam into the turbine now instead of the bypass done during "steam blowing test" earlier...

and then...everything is POWERED UP!

Stock

2020-02-05 17:41 | Report Abuse

Investors now got a bargain of almost 20 cents , plus additional progress of 1 month towards scheduled electricity generation.

All purely due to the coronavirus fear....which had absolutely zero impact on the power plant.

Stock

2020-02-05 17:37 | Report Abuse

yes, thanks to Ricky Kiat. The below article should clear once and for all any uncertainties caused by the coronavirus on the timely electricity generation by the Hai Duong power plant as scheduled.


http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/1/art_14612_2062836.html

600,000 in Haiyang, Vietnam: Boiler blowing of Unit 1 completed successfully

Date: 2020-02-01
.................

On January 28, local time, the Haiyang 2 × 600 MW coal-fired power plant project completed the goal of No. 1 boiler No. 2 boiler ignition flushing tube, marking the successful completion of the boiler blowing pipe of No. 1 unit of Vietnam Hai Yang project, which is a complete set of follow-up units The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled.

Since the Haiyang project in Vietnam has entered the peak of installation and commissioning, all the construction personnel have made a concerted effort and are striving towards the goal of flushing pipes. During the firing and blowing of No. 2 boiler of Unit 1 coincides with the Spring Festival, the project department carefully planned and scientifically arranged the goals of the blowing pipe, and planned in advance the organization of construction personnel during the Spring Festival and the resumption of personnel after the festival to ensure the normal performance of the project around the Spring Festival. The project department set up an organization for installation and commissioning, with clear task decomposition and responsibilities in place. The project leader carried out film division management, professional departments strengthened independent management, and technology and production systems strengthened communication and fulfilled their responsibilities to ensure site construction continuity. The logistics department planned ahead and created a strong annual flavor for the construction site during the Spring Festival.

In addition, in the face of the recent severe situation of new coronaviruses, the Haiyang Project Department of Vietnam has taken timely measures to strengthen internal prevention and control propaganda on the one hand, to ensure that all staff have timely access to relevant prevention and control information, and on the other hand, to strengthen on-site control measures. The daily killing of living and office areas, the wearing of masks by all staff, entering the site to measure body temperature, and quarantine of new personnel, etc., created a safe construction environment.

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 23:25 | Report Abuse

updated statistics in China excluding Hubei can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

infected excluding Hubei:5319

fatality excluding Hubei:11

rate: = 11/5319
= 0.2%

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 13:11 | Report Abuse

we can raise the fatality rate to even 50% by depriving medical assistance / treatment completely..

our objective here is to determine the fatality rate having provided full medical assistance with the latest proven drugs..

that does appear to be 0.2% level..1 in 500 and its likely to come even lower than that.

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 11:27 | Report Abuse

even WHO were careful to declare emergency saying purely on the account of largely populated countries having poor healthcare facilities

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 11:16 |

Post removed.Why?

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 10:27 | Report Abuse

Fear should be directly proportional to the odds one would be dying due to this virus....allocating a reasonable low amount of resources (brain energy) for prevention.

the below posting earlier reasons why you should not be worried.

But that does not mean one should refrain from doing the necessary activities to prevent...same goes to passive smoking.

With the current screening done at international airports....you can be as relaxed...just like you dont wear a mask beside a smoker to avoid passive smoking.

of course the equation changes when people infected in your country goes beyond a threshold the country can manage easily


..................................
Feb 2, 2020 8:34 PM | Report Abuse


every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

There is a reason why the website below calculates the same at 0.3%...its not without a meaning

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate (CFR) is currently estimated at around 2%, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, January 29, 2020

However, the WHO specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."
.
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization .

A prior estimate [3] had put that number at 3%, between 2% and 4%.

Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

Once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%.
=======================

Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).

=======================

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 09:52 | Report Abuse

the pool sampled is large within China just excluding Hubei...best is if you can exclude Wuhan alone...

there is a logic why it was done and it was explained due to proper healthcare availability in time

....

this carries meaning to predict the fatality rate on actual scenario worldwide where proper healthcare for such patients would be abundant

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 00:36 | Report Abuse

no manufacturing and business activity can stop in china for a prolonged period.......

you cant stop people from consuming......

i predict the lockdown will be over within max 2 weeks

News & Blogs

2020-02-03 00:32 | Report Abuse

International companies based in china already officially gave notification that they are closed till 10th Feb.

The whole lockdown purpose is to checkmate the virus using space (1) and time (2).

(1) Ensure it does not have the space of less than 2 meter radius to spread to another

(2) It stays within the radius during its lifespan of 14 days

...........

Once (1) & (2) are done.... the spread comes to a complete halt.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 21:11 | Report Abuse

Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient in 'serious condition' is declared 'disease-free' in 48 hours after treatment with HIV and flu drugs

11:41 GMT, 2 February 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html

Medics tested the drug mix on a patient who was in a 'serious condition' with the disease and within 48 hours they were declared disease-free.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 21:05 | Report Abuse

we can't predict on short term insanity...but perhaps we can on long term sanity

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 20:34 | Report Abuse

every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 20:04 | Report Abuse

0.2% fatality rate means, 1 in 500 infected will be fatal

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 18:46 | Report Abuse

This is the fatality rate one can expect with a sufficient healthcare support availability.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 17:48 | Report Abuse

Once they are able to contain the death rate within Wuhan with the new hospitals, the true fatality rate which should definitely be lesser than 0.5% will come to surface....

I think the media had grossly unaccounted on the reality...where the high fatality rate seen currently is purely due to compromised healthcare in Wuhan, where the Govn of china are choiceless to safeguard other region and bring the spreading into control.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 17:40 | Report Abuse

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 17:39 | Report Abuse

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
======

Stock

2020-02-02 17:37 | Report Abuse

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Stock

2020-02-02 17:37 | Report Abuse

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
=========

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 17:36 | Report Abuse

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 17:36 | Report Abuse

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
=========

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 12:09 | Report Abuse

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 12:09 | Report Abuse

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 11:35 | Report Abuse

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

News & Blogs

2020-02-02 11:32 | Report Abuse

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/