what happens if it never comes down? just because you are no patient for 6 months...you want to lose 10 years worth rise?

wei..are you having fever?...you had posted the same 6 times already!

hope not corona..

rr88 missed the boat looks like...

Koon, OTB, Icon8888..name it ...you always can read the unwritten...

i must say charlest is the best personality reader in i3..

Imagine you have a software like google map that shows location of every single individual who has a smart phone within a radius of 20 meter from your present location and tagged red (unverified) and tagged green (verified virus free within 24 hours x 4 days ago).

It should be made mandatory that every individual who wants to roam around must ensure he verifies he is virus free every 4 days.

4 days is what it take for a virus to transmit to a person before the person can transmit to another.

I think 'privacy concerns' due to mandatory location transparency required during the 'temporary' war on the virus should not be an issue.....compared to long periods of isolation, losing jobs and losing loved ones and even potential scarcity of food soon.

I am optimistic all govn (in every modern country) will agree to this if the issue prolongs under current situation.

Infact they should implement this immediately.

Further those who are tagged virus free and freely roaming will inform authorities if they come across un-tagged individuals detected by their smartphones in the vicinity..

Virus free individuals will be the natural enforcers of MCO and we will no longer need police or army then.

when we develop vaccine or antibody...all it does is it equips your body to detect the virus and kill/remove it from your body.

it Detects & Kills.

If you have a virus detection device that can detect in 5 minutes and a smartphone that shows location of infected and uninfected individuals...then the technology had already provided the antibody for the country. It Detects & Isolates.

Isolating effectively means killing them if they cant recover.

The priority for the social-distancing period

Posted by FocusM | 1 hour ago

https://focusmalaysia.my/mainstream/the-priority-for-the-social-distancing-period/

The Asian cases suggest that digital technologies are effective tools for targeting and monitoring infections, and for keeping people and authorities informed about risks. Some of the most effective techniques rely on location data and may raise privacy concerns in some countries. But given the scale of the challenge, these methods should not be dismissed out of hand.

The platforms already have location data that could be used to inform citizens of potential exposure. After all, digital infrastructure has already proven to be a key source of economic resilience in this crisis. Without it, remote working and schooling, e-commerce, and digital financial services would not be possible, and aggressive social distancing would have already brought the economy to a near-complete halt. — Project Syndicate

People with virus free tag will have automatic detection by their smartphones on those who are roaming beside them without clean certification....this way they will be able to prevent them-self from getting infected.

For their own safety they will naturally move away from those who are not proven virus free.

The above will be an automatic natural strategy to slowly eliminate the virus from a country....on top of strict detection on all arrivals at international airports.

People with virus free tag will have automatic detection by their smartphones on those who are roaming beside them without clean certification....this way they will be able to prevent them-self from getting infected.

For their own safety they will naturally move away from those who are not proven virus free.

The above will be an automatic natural strategy to slowly eliminate the virus from a country....on top of strict detection on all arrivals at international airports.

It would be a shame to humanity if they cannot conquer this virus..when they can detect it within 5 minutes.

It weighs and costs probably as good as a smartphone - where even primary school kids have it at their home in the poorest country.

When its a matter of life & death situation....when its restricting and paralyzing every single business (hawker stall to MNC)...

Money will be poured here by all govn to make it available at every single corner of the country.

Wrist band / or smart phone tagging with location activation will be enabled for ONLY those who are tested free of virus to move around initially....

Anyone found roaming without a wrist band (or digital tag) will be punishable under MCO and this will encourage everyone to get them-self certified clean (virus free) to move around and continue with their day to day work...

Motivation for self initiative to get self certified clean will be immense...and automatic....


This is what we call 'technological' vaccination
..............................................


You dont need biological vaccine

It would be a shame to humanity if they cannot conquer this virus..when they can detect it within 5 minutes.

It weighs and costs probably as good as a smartphone - where even primary school kids have it at their home in the poorest country.

When its a matter of life & death situation....when its restricting and paralyzing every single business (hawker stall to MNC)...

Money will be poured here by all govn to make it available at every single corner of the country.

Wrist band / or smart phone tagging with location activation will be enabled for ONLY those who are tested free of virus to move around initially....

Anyone found roaming without a wrist band (or digital tag) will be punishable under MCO and this will encourage everyone to get them-self certified clean (virus free) to move around and continue with their day to day work...

Motivation for self initiative to get self certified clean will be immense...and automatic....


This is what we call 'technological' vaccination
..............................................


You dont need biological vaccine

ID NOW™ COVID-19

MOLECULAR. IN MINUTES. ON THE FRONT LINE.

ID NOW™
ID NOW™ is a leading molecular point-of-care platform in the United States, trusted by hospitals, physician offices, and urgent care clinics nationwide.

The ID NOW™ COVID-19 assay is now available for use on the ID NOW platform under U.S. Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The ID NOW™ COVID-19 rapid test delivers high-quality molecular positive results in as little as 5 minutes, targeting the coronavirus (COVID-19) RdRp Gene.

Timely results enable healthcare professionals to make appropriate and more efficient treatment and infection control decisions. EUA supports flexible near patient testing environments.

Only available in the US.

https://www.alere.com/en/home/product-details/id-now-covid-19.html

https://www.alere.com/en/home/product-details/id-now-covid-19.html

ID NOW™ COVID-19
MOLECULAR. IN MINUTES. ON THE FRONT LINE.

ID NOW™
ID NOW™ is a leading molecular point-of-care platform in the United States, trusted by hospitals, physician offices, and urgent care clinics nationwide.

The ID NOW™ COVID-19 assay is now available for use on the ID NOW platform under U.S. Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The ID NOW™ COVID-19 rapid test delivers high-quality molecular positive results in as little as 5 minutes, targeting the coronavirus (COVID-19) RdRp Gene.

Timely results enable healthcare professionals to make appropriate and more efficient treatment and infection control decisions. EUA supports flexible near patient testing environments.

Only available in the US.

Why Abbott's 5-minute COVID test could be a game-changer

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/why-abbotts-5-minute-covid-test-could-be-game-changer

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening
American Enterprise Institute
HEALTH POLICY
March 29, 2020

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

Why Abbott's 5-minute COVID test could be a game-changer

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/why-abbotts-5-minute-covid-test-could-be-game-changer

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening
American Enterprise Institute
HEALTH POLICY
March 29, 2020

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

i think charlest and up_down would be the real champion at the moment...sifus have very good instincts

why force majeure? they can always stop another power generator to shut and operate hai duong....

covid-19 does not prevent operation..its not an irresistible compulsion of superior strength to selectively operate a another power plant

IPP return is real, even if it is not utilized as for the case of Indonesian Coal Fired power plant:

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Overpaid-and-Underutilized_How-Capacity-Payments-to-Coal-Fired-Power-Plants-Could-Lock-Indonesia-into-a-High-Cost-Electricity-Future-_August2017.pdf

Extract from Page 12 - 13 below:
....

To this end, IPP participation has been instrumental in expanding power generation capacity in Indonesia, although this expansion has been accomplished at a significant cost.

The PPA with Paiton Energy (which operates a 2,035MW coal-fired power plant) in 1991 has a project internal rate of return (IRR) of between 20% and 25%.

Later coal power projects, those that achieved financial close from 2005 to 2009, such as Cirebon (660MW) and the Tanjung Jati expansion (2 x 660MW) have IRRs of between 12% and 14%.

In general, equity return for investors is higher than project IRR. The Indonesian government effectively guaranteed this return through capacity payment.

The high IRR attained in earlier years was commensurate with the political and commercial risk of investing in Indonesia, but the track record shows how much Indonesia has had to pay in order to kick-start and sustain the IPP momentum

the above means we can overcome the virus via technology even without a vaccine much earlier

Larry Brilliant, The man who wrote the movie Contagion - The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

If you were the president for one day, what would you say in the daily briefing?

I would begin the press conference by saying "Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to Ron Klain—he was the Ebola czar [under President Barack Obama], and now I’ve called him back and made him Covid czar. Everything will be centralized under one person who has the respect of both the public health community and the political community." We're a divided country right now.

Right now, Tony Fauci [head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] is the closest that we come to that.
.......................................................

personally i hope rapid test kits coupled with mobile monitoring of patients locations will enable control like how south korea did everywhere in the world soon..

thanks for the well reasoned opinion Philip..sounds very logical

let me find out who is this Dr.Fauci..

i think the cheap and quick test kits...like the below, might end the pandemic very fast...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england

Self-testing at home to find out whether somebody has had Covid-19 is an efficient way to find out if they are safe to return to work, a senior health official has said.

Prof Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, told the health select committee that finger-prick home tests would be available very soon. “We expect that to come within a couple of weeks, but I wouldn’t want to promise on that,” she said.

sslee, please help with your research...how fast a cure will be likely found and how the world and market be by then

TQ

same old stories here...dizzying long write up...with some recommendation without are compelling reason.....and the sifus keep arguing without a clear direction...

i agree with ayoyo comments above..

the question now is...shall we go for stocks like Harta or greatly depressed due to covid like GenM?

both are good companies...but the answer depends on WHEN (not will) a cure to covid-19 will be discovered and implemented..

its a difficult question, but wish some young scientist are available in i3 instead of young accountants....to figure this out.

Post removed.Why?

market pricing is something relative to interest rate....

how long can it be priced so cheap against such low interest rate?

I keep seeing everywhere..whatsapp..FB...etc..short the market..short the market..market will crash..will go below 1000 etc..

where is the justification fundamentally for that?
Can all business close down indefinitely?
People no need to eat?
the manufacturers who produce these no need to operate?
the transportation and infra to support this need not operate eventually?

people eventually still need eat..sleep..and fcuk...nothing can stop this...and they need to work for that

the world cant stop for long...

either they will quarantine the whole world for 28 days (shoot at site if anyone leaves home) or live with the virus...

There is nothing can stop the basic drive above
................................................

i have heard of 'oversold' before...but now learning about 'over pessimism 'just because some recent bad news.

MFCB : 4.50
JAKS : 0.77

........

Is MFCB earnings expected to be 5-6 x times higher than JAKS future earnings?

OR

Is JAKS earnings expected to be 5-6 x times less than MFCB earnings?

Looking at above news, it seems to me now there is some truth in what uncle Koon was saying earlier:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-03-18-story-h1484897539-Dayang_The_worst_is_over_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

How does the oil price slump affect Dayang?

Many investors are worried that the current oil price slump will badly affect Dayang’s business and reduce Dayang’s profit. No! it will not! In fact, the oil price slump is good for Dayang’s business. Unlike Hibiscus, Dayang is not involved in the oil extraction. It is only oil rig maintenance contractor.

In fact, when the oil price slumps, Petronas will have to pump more oil to support Malaysia’s economy and award more oil rig maintenance contracts to Dayang which is largest and most efficient contractor in the field. In this region where Petronas has about 100 Offshore oil rigs, it looks like Dayang has the monopoly in this business

Fitch expects Petronas capex to remain around RM50b a year

Thursday, 19 Sep 2019

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/09/19/fitch-expects-petronas-capex-to-remain-around-rm50b-a-year

In said in a statement on Thursday Petronas expects upstream investments of RM167.6bil over the next five years.

“These investments are critical for the company to arrest falling production at its domestic oil and gas fields and drive growth overseas, ” it said.

Petronas knows eventually price will return to 40-60 US$/brl.

They will never stop any of their scheduled maintenance activities due to a temporary blip on oil price.

They have a duty to ensure money flows into the Malaysian economy this way via the downstream players (directly to the economy) on top of contributing to Government revenue which eventually goes as government expenditures (indirectly to the economy).

The Myth Of Cheap Shale Oil

By Nick Cunningham - May 22, 2019,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Myth-Of-Cheap-Shale-Oil.html

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the breakeven prices for producing oil in the Delaware Basin is $49 per barrel and $48 per barrel in the Midland Basin, both of which are in the Permian. Meanwhile, what the Dallas Fed classifies as “other U.S. nonshale” has a breakeven of $49 per barrel. So, despite all the hype, shale is not more competitive on a cost basis than conventional and offshore production.

While shale may have roughly a similar breakeven price as other conventional sources of oil in the U.S., the massive wave of shale output has succeeded in lowering oil prices more broadly. More importantly, because the breakeven price of shale tends to hover between $40 and $60, a much larger volume of oil can come online when prices rise to the upper end of that range. It used to be the case that it would take triple-digit oil prices in order to induce more supply.

Another implication is that long-dated oil futures prices are likely to be correlated with these breakeven thresholds. In theory, though not in practice, long-term oil prices should be anchored to the marginal cost of supply. Because shale increasingly accounts for that marginal barrel – more supply comes online when prices rise to the roughly $50-$60 range – U.S. shale could keep a lid on prices for years to come, the Dallas Fed argues.

Similarly, the fast-depleting nature of shale ensures that prices can’t fall too low.
...................


As soon as crude prices fall below the breakevens price for shale operators, drilling stops and existing wells quickly deplete, knocking supply offline. That firms up the price.

Post removed.Why?

Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd

(Feb 24,2020 RM2.69)

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/higher-demand-mcm-marine-vessels-seen-benefit-dayang

Upgrade to outperform with a higher target price of RM3.40: Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd posted a record profit for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2019 (FY19), beating expectations, thanks to higher work orders received for its offshore TMS, as well as higher vessel utilisations for its marine charter.

Moving forward, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is still looking to increase its demand for maintenance construction and modification (MCM) and marine vessels — both of which will benefit Dayang. Additionally, its reduced debt following the conclusion of its debt restructuring and improving earnings could also lead to further finance cost-savings.

Dayang posted FY19 core net profit of RM215.1 million (arrived at after stripping off non-core items, for example, unrealised foreign exchange, gain on purchases and a reversal of accrued interests) — coming above our forecasts by 26%, and consensus by 5%, thanks to higher work orders for its offshore TMS and stronger vessel utilisation in its marine charter division. No dividends were announced, as expected.

In its latest activity outlook, Petronas has guided for a further increase in demand for its MCM and marine vessels — both of which are segments that will benefit Dayang. Additionally, on the back of its outlook recovery and recently concluded debt restructuring, Dayang’s total debt was reduced by 25% (or RM277 million) year-on-year, which would result in further finance
cost-savings.

We also raised our estimated FY20E’s core net profit by 11%, after factoring in stronger work orders and vessel utilisations, while introducing new FY21E numbers. Besides, risks to our call are weaker-than-expected work orders, poorer-than-expected margins, and a lower-than-expected vessel utilisation. — Kenanga Research, Feb 24

..............

not even 1 month from above date, dayang had dropped 4 x times lower

may be like KYY said, Petronas should increase oil production to recover more revenue for the government....

at such cheap oil, their low sulphur content would have an advantage considering the IMO 2020 regulations....

it may be more economical for vessel owners to just buy cheaper low sulphur oil than installing scrubbers (expensive capex) to meet the IMO 2020 regulations.

Further, at current oil price Saudi Arabia will go bankrupt in 4 years.

I admit i was wrong in terms of containing the cases within China only (they did contain it) - the error was thinking it will not spread to countries and areas which has poor controls like in Malaysia

now that is has spread - we need extreme precautionary actions enforced

Post removed.Why?

so the moment you see 'anyone' not cooperating...including religious group...please report to police immediately.

Call: 03-8886 8110, 03-8886 8126

Remember - you are doing this for the survival of your senior loved ones.

so the moment you see 'anyone' not cooperating...including religious group...please report to police immediately.

Call: 03-8886 8110, 03-8886 8126

Remember - you are doing this for the survival of your senior loved ones.

guys...its really easy to beat the virus. The prescription is only 3 tablets below:

Tablet 1: Space
..............

Keep distance of 2 meters. Stay at home - only go out for essential shopping.

Tablet 2: Time
...............

Take the tablet 1 above for 14 days. In 14 days those who were infected either gets cured / died and will no longer be able to transmit.

Table 3: Cooperation - "simultaneous action by all"
.....................

Taking above tablet 1 & 2 by yourself alone will not wipe out the virus if others do not do it at the same time. Tablet 1 is easy to take...Tablet 2 requires a lot of patience...

Tablet 3 is the hardest pill to swallow and it has to be forcefully fed by the Government....this is the greatest battle.

......................

Tablet 3 availability explains the difference between China and other countries..

guys...its really easy to beat the virus. The prescription is only 3 tablets below:

Tablet 1: Space
..............

Keep distance of 2 meters. Stay at home - only go out for essential shopping.

Tablet 2: Time
...............

Take the tablet 1 above for 14 days. In 14 days those who were infected either gets cured / died and will no longer be able to transmit.

Table 3: Cooperation - "simultaneous action by all"
.....................

Taking above tablet 1 & 2 by yourself alone will not wipe out the virus if others do not do it at the same time. Tablet 1 is easy to take...Tablet 2 requires a lot of patience...

Tablet 3 is the hardest pill to swallow and it has to be forcefully fed by the Government....this is the greatest battle.

......................

Tablet 3 availability explains the difference between China and other countries..

A good simulation showing how social distancing helps significantly in halting the virus and flattening the spread curve:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

A good simulation showing how social distancing helps significantly in breaking the chain like sslee said above:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

yes..it was a subset all the while based on medical facilities availability...the major constraints is the ventilators..you remove this from the equation you have different fatality rates...

that is the reason they want to 'flatten the spread curve'..so that medical facilities can handle the cases

outside wuhan in china it is still 0.2%....the high rates you see in Europe is because 22% of europe population are seniors aged above 65.

99% of of those who died are senior people having some health issues earlier

i am surprised an educated man like you can say such a thing....not sad specifically on you...but sad for the many clueless educated malaysians like you


Posted by Ricky Yeo > Mar 20, 2020 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks for being sad to me

if you care for the senior members of your family...please do your part....aged population are highly vulnerable

they will never (never) be able to freely roam around until the vaccine is found
.............

please understand the deep message above