But whatever your long term goals are....check the no. of infection count first in the morning before the market opens.

Its crucial.

LOL...whats wrong with you guys?

anyway, i take that as you guys are completely convinced that AA is worth at least RM 3.00 then.. with the arguments that i had presented.

I seriously advise you guys not to feel any doubt holding till 3.00.

Actually it may even go till 6.

I was just giving a number to quote from the below person.


posted by Springtime > Feb 9, 2020 7:02 PM | Report Abuse

Your entry point at 1.50, 1.73 good enough for you?

I am afraid your entry point is when i exit at 1.73

If the market is truly intelligent - there is absolutely no reason for AA to trade any lower than 1.73.

.....................

(1) TF put a couple of Millions in his pocket....so what? Of course he takes care of AA more where he has 32% stakes. If a dad has affair...does not mean he does not care about his kids & wife.

(2) This coronavirus is as good as Influenza at 0.16% fatality. China will contain it - 100% certain and this fear will fade completely in a matter of weeks. Its just a matter of time. No matter which way you look at it.

.................

Considering (1) & (2) why fcuk should AA trade lower than 1.73??

why the fcuk man..................

Tomorrow may be new infection count is just 1900!

Check this first thing in the morning before market start.

Tomorrow may be new infection count is just 1900!

Check this first thing in the morning before market start.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected

'MEANINGFUL' SLOWDOWN

People with mild or no apparent symptoms aren't currently being counted among cases, he told reporters Sunday. A slowdown in the increase in reported cases over the past few days is "meaningful," according to Dr Lipkin, who recently returned to the US from China, where he was advising on the outbreak. He spoke with journalists during a 14-day home quarantine.

If measures taken so far to contain the outbreak are effective, some "dramatic reductions" in infections should be observed in the third or fourth weeks of February, he said. Warmer, early-spring weather might also impede transmission, he said.

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

It is the HUMIDITY which decreases the float-ability of the virus before it drops to the floor within 2 meter radius of a man's exhaled air. As there is less free space on air for the virus to move randomly before it drops by gravity.

Further, at high temperatures, the density of air is lower, causing the virus to have lesser buoyancy force to float.

And, at higher humidity the virus has to compete with more H2O molecules on the vulnerable membranes of nasal path, lungs, and eyes for 'sites to latch on' before penetrating the skin and multiplying inside.

A dry air makes it extremely easy for the virus to latch on. A virus is just a chemical structure which needs the help of physics law for spreading.

.........................

Any environments in a country has this measurement called as 'relative humidity'...its a measure of humidity level - i.e what percentage of the air has water molecules (H20).

Any country with an environment TEMPERATURE which is high AND placed near to the sea / rivers (like vietnam)...will have high relative humidity as the high TEMPERATURE increases the amount water droplets in vapor forms as the molecules has more energy.

This is well known by the chemist and biologists.

As such equatorial places like Indonesia with high temperature and surrounding sea surface ratio to land (even Vietnam) will have high humidity.

Like i mentioned earlier, the odds of you getting 'infected' (not even fatality) is the same as getting struck by lightning if you are staying anywhere outside Hubei.


Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2020 11:13 AM | Report Abuse X

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike

Epidemiology
..............

About 240,000 incidents regarding lightning strikes happen each year.
Annual fatality tolls vary greatly. One estimate is that the annual global death toll is 6,000.On the other hand, according to National Geographic, annually about 2,000 people are killed worldwide by lightning.

Thats like 16 deaths per day! I am not even talking about incidents!
....................................................................

Wuhan virus infections outside China today 9th Feb: 25 only

Targeted, go through my comments earlier.. Its totally prudent for Singapore to do what it is doing now.

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly. Further, Singapore is extremely dependent on foreign businesses and interactions.

The risk vs reward of doing so is highly justified (for Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong )
...................................................

posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:35 PM | Report Abuse X

Countries By Density 2020
.........................

What are the most densely populated countries in the world? Here is a ranking of the top 10 most densely populated countries in the world:

Macau (Population density: 21,055/km²)
Monaco (Population density: 19,150/km²)
Singapore (Population density: 8,109/km²)
Hong Kong (Population density: 6,677/km²)
Gibraltar (Population density: 5,620/km²)
Bahrain (Population density: 2,052/km²)
Vatican City (Population density: 1,820/km²)
Maldives (Population density: 1,719/km²)
Malta (Population density: 1,390/km²)
Sint Maarten (Population density: 1,234/km²

..............

Malaysia is 99/km2

Posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:37 PM | Report Abuse X

Thats why Macau, Hongkong and Singapore are the most vulnerable cities....

where extra precautionary measures needs to be taken at early stage to bring everything into a manageable level (to avoid huge medical costs, not fatality)

Posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:39 PM | Report Abuse X

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly.

The whole world already isolate Wuhan...including other provinces in China.

What happens in Wuhan..infections or death count....no longer applicable..it no longer falls into the circle of influence or even concern of the world. Just like what happens in Syria...no body cares.

The weather in China is also changing rapidly....even there the infections cases will become close to nil soon.

This is the end of the coronavirus euphoria
........................................

You can choose to accept it or deny it...or hide yourself like an Ostrich hiding its tiny head on a bush (with its big ass wide open)...

Market will quickly come to the realization and react.

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

This is the end of the coronavirus euphoria
........................................

You can choose to accept it or deny it...or hide yourself like an Ostrich hiding its tiny head on a bush (with big ass wide open)...

Market will quickly come to the realization and react.

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Quickly wear some lightning arrestors since you have the same odds of getting striked by lightning! LOL....

Posted by myinvestor > Feb 9, 2020 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-coronavirus-dorsc...

It just beginning in Singapore.
Be prepare to wear mask, googles and gloves.

Singapore updates the dorscon status to orange just days ago.
Singaporean are stocking food and essential items. They are preparing a lock down in Singapore if it turn red. (latest 40 people already infected). Virus had already mutate there and spreading to
the local peoples and foreign visitors.

Note: Before Wuhan Lock down, 10k Wuhan visitors had visited Singapore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike

Epidemiology
..............

About 240,000 incidents regarding lightning strikes happen each year.
Annual fatality tolls vary greatly. One estimate is that the annual global death toll is 6,000.On the other hand, according to National Geographic, annually about 2,000 people are killed worldwide by lightning.

Thats like 16 deaths per day! I am not even talking about incidents!
....................................................................

Wuhan virus infections outside China today 9th Feb: 25 only


OMG......this is unbelievable truth!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike

Epidemiology
..............

About 240,000 incidents regarding lightning strikes happen each year.
Annual fatality tolls vary greatly. One estimate is that the annual global death toll is 6,000.On the other hand, according to National Geographic, annually about 2,000 people are killed worldwide by lightning.

Thats like 16 deaths per day! I am not even talking about incidents!
....................................................................

Wuhan virus infections outside China today 9th Feb: 25 only


OMG......this is unbelievable truth!!!

coronovirus was only 1 virus affecting say...hundreds per day...there were 1000 of other viruses which affecting millions per day earlier...

the lock-down was an effective purging...like the intermittent fasting,...which is truly healthy for the economy.

To all Jaks shareholders,

I think the coronavirus effects on market will subside very fast by next week. This means, any psychological prejudice on JAKS (if it all exists) due to the fact the power plant is placed in Vietnam and having Chinese workers should quickly vaporize.


Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2020 10:07 AM | Report Abuse X

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Truly remarkable feat by CCP! Salute....

Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2020 10:23 AM | Report Abuse X

I hope investors know what to do on Monday...instead of waiting for the news to come out officially later that the war on coronavirus is an applaudable success by CCP and is completely OVER.


By that time...its too late already. Media will completely go the other extreme saying.....there is absolutely no reason to wear masks etc...even at public places and that the chances of getting infected is like getting killed by lightning strike (infact this appears the case looking at the new infections outside Hubei)

I hope investors know what to do on Monday...instead of waiting for the news to come out officially later that the war on coronavirus is an applaudable success by CCP and is completely OVER.


By that time...its too late already. Media will completely go the other extreme saying.....there is absolutely no reason to wear masks etc...even at public places and that the chances of getting infected is like getting killed by lightning strike (infact this appears the case looking at the new infections outside Hubei)

I hope investors know what to do on Monday...instead of waiting for the news to come out officially later that the war on coronavirus is an applaudable success by CCP and is completely OVER.


By that time...its too late already. Media will completely go the other extreme saying.....there is absolutely no reason to wear masks etc...even at public places and that the chances of getting infected is like getting killed by lightning strike(infact this appears the case looking at the new infections outside Hubei)

Latest new infection: only 2600. LOL!

This is the end of coronavirus euphoria.
.........................................

Latest new infection: only 2600. LOL!

This is the end of coronavirus euphoria.
.........................................

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Truly remarkable feat by CCP! Salute....

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Truly remarkable feat by CCP! Salute....

all these silly fault findings on TF based on couple of millions pocketed...and the hype on the virus causing long term damage for a 5% seat capacity.......appears really getting dry.

Time is certainly on favour for AA...
the longer one waits...the greater the lost precious opportunity

Thank you

Read carefully why NHS mentioned 0.16% on above postings. Despite repetitive postings...your dumb brain never gets it!

Dont scold Singapore PM dumb dumb la...LOL!

I did say the same on 1st Feb. What took so long for the scientist to figure out?

Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2020 7:02 PM | Report Abuse X

Indonesia despite having 270 Million population and likely more workers working abroad and mainland chinese within the country...recorded nil patients.

This is a stark difference to Germany where asymptomatic infection took place across person to person in 3 stages even before the first victim showed symptoms.

............

Definitely humidity plays a significant role on the spread-ability of the virus. Hotter climate close to the sea like Indonesia...ensures high humidity level. And high humidity is definitely preventing novel coronavirus ability to float for spreading which can only take place within a circumference of 2 meter (just 6 feet!) before it drops to the ground.

Coronavirus: Fear can do more harm than the virus, says PM Lee

8/2/2020 an hour ago

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-fear-can-do-more-harm-than-the-virus-says-pm-lee-103822558.html

“With the new virus, outside of Hubei province, the mortality rate is so far only 0.2 per cent. In comparison, seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 per cent. So in terms of mortality, the new virus is much closer to influenza than SARS.

..........

Even Singapore PM just said what i said above....fatality rate is 0.2%

you have to carefully exclude Hubei/Wuhan from the counts to find true fatality rate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

click 'show' on the tables for the below on above link:

- New confirmed cases of coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions:

- New deaths from coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions

........

The above is a crucial information many have not realized.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
............................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

What is the global incidence of influenza?

Updated: Jan 08, 2020

https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza

The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.

......................................

Say 400,000 deaths for a 7 Billion world population, it means for a country like China with 1.4 Billion, fatality in a year would be:

80,000 deaths per year

= 220 deaths per day (in China due to Influenza)
..................


Now, what is the death Wuhan virus is causing per day?

= 80 per day
............

With sufficient health care provision, the fatality rate is determined to be 0.16%

Assuming it becomes an endemic in China infecting over 50 Million people on average a year...the death rate per day would be:

= 0.16% x 50,000,000 /(365 days)
= 220 death per day

..........

In a nutshell, for Wuhan Virus to obtain the status of Influenza, it has to reach infection rate of 50 Million per year or about 140,000 per day.

At current infection rate, 3400 /day it is still very far behind Influenza status (of course due to strict measure in place by CCP currently).

Even, when China opens up and release the lock down....which i am sure after Hubei or in particular Wuhan is under full control, and the source of the virus is eliminated, the infection count is long way to reach 140,000 per day.

Think about it.
..............

Just using a gap of 2 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion spent for the Power Plant and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity Sales....estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Billion to obtain an IRR of 12% .

The IRR of 12% is derived at an extremely conservative annual plant utilization rate of 6500 hrs.

For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs as it was found for Vinh Tan 1..

..........

IRR increases by approximately 1.4% for every 300 hrs rise in utilization.

This was the reason, the IRR was estimated to be on the mid teens at the initial stage of the project before Andy acquired a partner (CPECC).

After that...there was no need to reveal its true potential.

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly.

Thats why Macau, Hongkong and Singapore are the most vulnerable cities....


where extra precautionary measures needs to be taken at early stage to bring everything into a manageable level (to avoid huge medical costs, not fatality)

Countries By Density 2020
.........................

What are the most densely populated countries in the world? Here is a ranking of the top 10 most densely populated countries in the world:

Macau (Population density: 21,055/km²)
Monaco (Population density: 19,150/km²)
Singapore (Population density: 8,109/km²)
Hong Kong (Population density: 6,677/km²)
Gibraltar (Population density: 5,620/km²)
Bahrain (Population density: 2,052/km²)
Vatican City (Population density: 1,820/km²)
Maldives (Population density: 1,719/km²)
Malta (Population density: 1,390/km²)
Sint Maarten (Population density: 1,234/km²

..............

Malaysia is 99/km2

mortality rate everywhere excluding hubei will be about the same <0.2%...

but the chances of spreading to a level where it may be difficult to provide necessary medical attention/care is very high in Singapore & Hongkong vs Malaysia......

due to population density

the chances of spreading in Singapore is multifolds...100X higher than Malaysia...

they make love or go toilet also neighbour can hear one...

i told earlier...singapore is a very confined densely populated business hub with huge flux of travel volume...

It is a prudent decision to nip it on the bud to save medical cost in the future.

They should have done it earlier.

All the seniors sifus agree to it...Koon came out with an article earlier that this is a precious opportunity for clever investors.

Cold eye repeatedly insisting this is the time to be brave and buy.....

just like the experienced paktua been advocating here.

Better whack AA on Monday before market wake up to the true reality ......which will inevitably surface eventually. No matter how you look at it...this fear is going to subside.


Fortune favours the bold
........................

Coronavirus: Fear can do more harm than the virus, says PM Lee

8/2/2020 an hour ago

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-fear-can-do-more-harm-than-the-virus-says-pm-lee-103822558.html

“With the new virus, outside of Hubei province, the mortality rate is so far only 0.2 per cent. In comparison, seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 per cent. So in terms of mortality, the new virus is much closer to influenza than SARS.

..........

Even Singapore PM just said what i said above....fatality rate is 0.2%.

Tun M can make a potential PM to a convict and back to PM.....

Further Rafidah Aziz is there...with AA

Azmin after sodomie still very strong and well...with Tun support

Tun M is the master of all crooks.

same way, margin sensitivity due to fuel price + jet fuel crack spread drop...is 15 times more.