probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

Followers

22

Following

2

Blog Posts

14

Threads

14,500

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
14,500
Past 30 days
1
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

User Comments
News & Blogs

2020-02-22 21:28 | Report Abuse

Taking us around the factory, Mr. Do Manh Hung, Head of Government Relations and Business Development Department of Jaks Hai Duong Power Company, the investor, excitedly said: "Come Now, the project has completed 90% of the total workload..

.......................

The above statement was made on 2nd Jan 2020

News & Blogs

2020-02-22 21:23 |

Post removed.Why?

News & Blogs

2020-02-22 12:06 | Report Abuse

may be should recognize all revenue by 2Q 2020, since unit 1 will enter grid by Mar 20' and Unit 2 would be just waiting green light from EVN to place to the grid by then...

cant see much activity other than labor (commissioning) after June 2020

Stock

2020-02-21 17:50 | Report Abuse

Dayang almost PE 10 already...move to JAKS which has certainty of such earnings for next 25 years.

Stock

2020-02-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

Stimulus package to directly help businesses hit by outbreak'

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/567578/stimulus-package-directly-help-businesses-hit-outbreak

Businesses severely affected by the Covid-19 outbreak can expect direct aid from the government’s economic stimulus package, especially the tourism, retail and aviation sectors, said Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Dr Ong Kian Ming.

Stock

2020-02-19 09:00 | Report Abuse

PETALING JAYA: The directors of the AIRASIA Group gave their nod in 2010 to efforts by Tan Sri Tony Fernandes (pic) to build the AirAsia brand through sponsorships, said sources.

The board of AIRASIA X had approved amounts of up to US$250mil sought for a sponsorship strategy via a Formula One racing team.

The sponsorship was a way to lift the AirAsia brand and allow it to be a globally recognisable brand, said a source.

Stock

2020-02-16 21:38 | Report Abuse

it is hypocrisy.....which is true denial

and we have hypocrisy both in terms of bribery.....and fear from virus.....

like TKO said 'Manic sensationalisation of the coronavirus'

we also have "Manic sensationalisation of penny bribery"

Stock

2020-02-16 20:31 | Report Abuse

ha ha...it will rise..

exactly...thats all the market needs to hear and i need to hear....

Stock

2020-02-16 20:20 | Report Abuse

AA rise is inevitable...


its as sure as the rise of the sun tomorrow morning...

Stock

2020-02-16 20:11 | Report Abuse

max within just 1 week, the virus have will zero implication to travel in asia...

Stock

2020-02-16 20:07 | Report Abuse

no of new confirmed infections dropped significantly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676
10th Feb: 3001
11th Feb: 2546
12th Feb: 1970
13th Feb: 1819
14th Feb: 1995
15th Feb: 1500

16th Feb: 1121
...............

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Outside China, excluding Japan, only 4 cases in the whole wide world!

News & Blogs

2020-02-16 11:32 | Report Abuse

All these stimulus by the malaysian govn without real increase in productivity will only weaken the RM against U.S$ in the future.....

as such keeping a US$ cash flow stock in portfolio would be a must

News & Blogs

2020-02-16 11:28 | Report Abuse

look at our GDP growth rate recently...and Germany which was almost nil...
it will be increasingly difficult to have good returns in the future that central bank will reduce interest to extreme low level like in Japan , Sweden...

At such low risk-free return rate, valuation of high certainty recurring earnings (25 years) from a utility business will be much higher...

JAKS price has only one direction as the years progress due to increasingly lower risk-free interest rate.

Stock

2020-02-15 17:36 | Report Abuse

china kan only 5% contribution.... now outside china corona cases zeroing...

outside china...people can be bothered...as they need to visit relatives..

why would AA reduce price?

Stock

2020-02-15 17:18 | Report Abuse

sorry guys, it was not updated accurately earlier here below:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

excluding Japan, its only 3 cases outside China

Stock

2020-02-15 14:13 | Report Abuse

bullballs you are right...as of end 14th feb...total 4 cases (including 2 from malaysia)..

It was not updated here about an hour ago:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Malaysia: 2
Japan: 1
Thailand: 1

Stock

2020-02-15 14:10 | Report Abuse

the count above is official as of end of 14th feb....

malaysian's case if confirmed will be reported tom...

just give 1 week...

News will come out declaring zero cases outside China

Stock

2020-02-15 14:04 | Report Abuse

may be can market in hubei only now...outside hubeis is only 200 confirmed cases per day...

even hubei will be completely under control in a month

Stock

2020-02-15 13:55 | Report Abuse

no of new confirmed infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676
10th Feb: 3001
11th Feb: 2546
12th Feb: 1970
13th Feb: 1819
14th Feb: 1995
15th Feb: 1500

...........

90% of the above cases was in Hubei only, meaning only about 200 confirmed cases in China outside Hubei.

I think the war on the virus internationally is over.

what more today OUTSIDE China:

ONLY 1 CASE reported!
....................

Stock

2020-02-15 13:53 | Report Abuse

(1) The bribery allegations news had been blown out like "witch hunt" on TF and KM last week.....the maximum level of negativity had been fully priced in on AA.

(2) At this rate of virus infections outside china (which may be NIL by tomorrow)...the fear on travel will completely vaporize within 1 week....

Stock

2020-02-15 13:45 | Report Abuse

no of new confirmed infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676
10th Feb: 3001
11th Feb: 2546
12th Feb: 1970
13th Feb: 1819
14th Feb: 1995
15th Feb: 1500

...........

90% of the above cases was in Hubei only, meaning only about 200 confirmed cases in China outside Hubei.

I think the war on the virus internationally is over.

what more today OUTSIDE China:

ONLY 1 CASE reported!
....................

Stock

2020-02-15 13:42 | Report Abuse

no of new confirmed infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676
10th Feb: 3001
11th Feb: 2546
12th Feb: 1970
13th Feb: 1819
14th Feb: 1995
15th Feb: 1500

...........

90% of the above cases was in Hubei only, meaning only about 200 confirmed cases in China outside Hubei.

I think the war on the virus internationally is over.

what more today OUTSIDE China:

ONLY 1 CASE reported!
....................

Stock

2020-02-13 10:08 | Report Abuse

Does the world need to hear zero infected per day outside china?

Stock

2020-02-13 09:51 | Report Abuse

6 infected/day?.....i dont know what odds of things can be lesser than that.....

Stock

2020-02-13 09:47 | Report Abuse

Outside China, infected today is only 6
.......................................

6 infected....vs 200 die from lightning

Stock

2020-02-12 21:59 | Report Abuse

Hai Duong Television. 6th Feb 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8f_vZBUE_8

Thermal power plant Hai Duong BOT disease prevention nCoV.

...................

Posted above video to show their State-of-the-art DCS control system for operating the power plant:
Refer video between 0.29 to 1.00 min.

The above also shows how proactively stringent measures are done to prevent any chances of infections. They cannot afford a single day delay for the "cash cow" plant.

From my experience, looking at above "SCADA readings" and the number of supervisor/operators in the control room, the power generation to the grid appears imminent.

Stock

2020-02-11 08:42 | Report Abuse

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676
10th Feb: 3001
11th Feb: 2546

...........

The war on the virus is progressing very well

Stock

2020-02-11 01:54 | Report Abuse

https://www.iata.org/contentassets/9036deaf9c984009a3515fd6aa1c5e24/charta_10022020.png

Jet fuel price index dropped from 230 to 180.

That's a whopping 22%.
.....................

News & Blogs

2020-02-09 21:48 | Report Abuse

Past "coronaviruses" around Fernandes, Kamarudin?

Stock

2020-02-09 21:47 | Report Abuse

Pray the number of infection count is down. Think of others first.

Stock

2020-02-09 21:05 | Report Abuse

But whatever your long term goals are....check the no. of infection count first in the morning before the market opens.

Its crucial.

Stock

2020-02-09 21:03 | Report Abuse

LOL...whats wrong with you guys?

anyway, i take that as you guys are completely convinced that AA is worth at least RM 3.00 then.. with the arguments that i had presented.

I seriously advise you guys not to feel any doubt holding till 3.00.

Actually it may even go till 6.

I was just giving a number to quote from the below person.


posted by Springtime > Feb 9, 2020 7:02 PM | Report Abuse

Your entry point at 1.50, 1.73 good enough for you?

Stock

2020-02-09 19:07 | Report Abuse

I am afraid your entry point is when i exit at 1.73

Stock

2020-02-09 18:53 | Report Abuse

If the market is truly intelligent - there is absolutely no reason for AA to trade any lower than 1.73.

.....................

(1) TF put a couple of Millions in his pocket....so what? Of course he takes care of AA more where he has 32% stakes. If a dad has affair...does not mean he does not care about his kids & wife.

(2) This coronavirus is as good as Influenza at 0.16% fatality. China will contain it - 100% certain and this fear will fade completely in a matter of weeks. Its just a matter of time. No matter which way you look at it.

.................

Considering (1) & (2) why fcuk should AA trade lower than 1.73??

why the fcuk man..................

Stock

2020-02-09 18:38 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow may be new infection count is just 1900!

Check this first thing in the morning before market start.

Stock

2020-02-09 18:35 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow may be new infection count is just 1900!

Check this first thing in the morning before market start.

Stock

2020-02-09 17:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected

'MEANINGFUL' SLOWDOWN

People with mild or no apparent symptoms aren't currently being counted among cases, he told reporters Sunday. A slowdown in the increase in reported cases over the past few days is "meaningful," according to Dr Lipkin, who recently returned to the US from China, where he was advising on the outbreak. He spoke with journalists during a 14-day home quarantine.

If measures taken so far to contain the outbreak are effective, some "dramatic reductions" in infections should be observed in the third or fourth weeks of February, he said. Warmer, early-spring weather might also impede transmission, he said.

Stock

2020-02-09 17:36 | Report Abuse

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

News & Blogs

2020-02-09 17:32 | Report Abuse

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

Stock

2020-02-09 17:27 | Report Abuse

so fast the news came!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-may-be-nearing-peak-study-finds

Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" in Wuhan, said Associate Professor Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease epidemiology expert in an email Sunday (Feb 9).

...............

"There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we're in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn't advanced," Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva Saturday.

"That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place."

There has been a "low, but steady incidence" of infections in places outside Hubei, Dr Ryan said. It's unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

"We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside," Dr Ryan said

News & Blogs

2020-02-09 17:19 | Report Abuse

It is the HUMIDITY which decreases the float-ability of the virus before it drops to the floor within 2 meter radius of a man's exhaled air. As there is less free space on air for the virus to move randomly before it drops by gravity.

Further, at high temperatures, the density of air is lower, causing the virus to have lesser buoyancy force to float.

And, at higher humidity the virus has to compete with more H2O molecules on the vulnerable membranes of nasal path, lungs, and eyes for 'sites to latch on' before penetrating the skin and multiplying inside.

A dry air makes it extremely easy for the virus to latch on. A virus is just a chemical structure which needs the help of physics law for spreading.

.........................

Any environments in a country has this measurement called as 'relative humidity'...its a measure of humidity level - i.e what percentage of the air has water molecules (H20).

Any country with an environment TEMPERATURE which is high AND placed near to the sea / rivers (like vietnam)...will have high relative humidity as the high TEMPERATURE increases the amount water droplets in vapor forms as the molecules has more energy.

This is well known by the chemist and biologists.

As such equatorial places like Indonesia with high temperature and surrounding sea surface ratio to land (even Vietnam) will have high humidity.

Stock

2020-02-09 13:43 | Report Abuse

Like i mentioned earlier, the odds of you getting 'infected' (not even fatality) is the same as getting struck by lightning if you are staying anywhere outside Hubei.


Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2020 11:13 AM | Report Abuse X

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike

Epidemiology
..............

About 240,000 incidents regarding lightning strikes happen each year.
Annual fatality tolls vary greatly. One estimate is that the annual global death toll is 6,000.On the other hand, according to National Geographic, annually about 2,000 people are killed worldwide by lightning.

Thats like 16 deaths per day! I am not even talking about incidents!
....................................................................

Wuhan virus infections outside China today 9th Feb: 25 only

Stock

2020-02-09 13:30 | Report Abuse

Targeted, go through my comments earlier.. Its totally prudent for Singapore to do what it is doing now.

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly. Further, Singapore is extremely dependent on foreign businesses and interactions.

The risk vs reward of doing so is highly justified (for Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong )
...................................................

posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:35 PM | Report Abuse X

Countries By Density 2020
.........................

What are the most densely populated countries in the world? Here is a ranking of the top 10 most densely populated countries in the world:

Macau (Population density: 21,055/km²)
Monaco (Population density: 19,150/km²)
Singapore (Population density: 8,109/km²)
Hong Kong (Population density: 6,677/km²)
Gibraltar (Population density: 5,620/km²)
Bahrain (Population density: 2,052/km²)
Vatican City (Population density: 1,820/km²)
Maldives (Population density: 1,719/km²)
Malta (Population density: 1,390/km²)
Sint Maarten (Population density: 1,234/km²

..............

Malaysia is 99/km2

Posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:37 PM | Report Abuse X

Thats why Macau, Hongkong and Singapore are the most vulnerable cities....

where extra precautionary measures needs to be taken at early stage to bring everything into a manageable level (to avoid huge medical costs, not fatality)

Posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 8:39 PM | Report Abuse X

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly.

Stock

2020-02-09 13:06 | Report Abuse

The whole world already isolate Wuhan...including other provinces in China.

What happens in Wuhan..infections or death count....no longer applicable..it no longer falls into the circle of influence or even concern of the world. Just like what happens in Syria...no body cares.

News & Blogs

2020-02-09 12:56 | Report Abuse

The weather in China is also changing rapidly....even there the infections cases will become close to nil soon.

Stock

2020-02-09 12:51 | Report Abuse

This is the end of the coronavirus euphoria
........................................

You can choose to accept it or deny it...or hide yourself like an Ostrich hiding its tiny head on a bush (with its big ass wide open)...

Market will quickly come to the realization and react.

Stock

2020-02-09 12:50 | Report Abuse

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Stock

2020-02-09 12:49 | Report Abuse

This is the end of the coronavirus euphoria
........................................

You can choose to accept it or deny it...or hide yourself like an Ostrich hiding its tiny head on a bush (with big ass wide open)...

Market will quickly come to the realization and react.

Stock

2020-02-09 12:46 | Report Abuse

The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.