For the past few months , the lowest range around 0.75 - 0.80 , and last few weeks around 0.88- 0.92 , indirectly it means the down side risk is between 0.88 - 0.92 . For the next 2 -3 months , If you were caught 1.01 - 1.03 , you can double average between 0.92 - 0.94 and wait for it reach your target of 1.18 - 1.22 or even higher as POINT's target price .

A hundred percent sanctions impose on IRAN would mean a shortfall of supply of around
700, 000 barrels per day ( excluding the demand from China and India) . IRAN produces more than 2 millions barrels per day .

For the next 2 - 3 months , any Sharp drop is an opportunity to buy and hold or average down .

There is a very high probability US will impose sanctions on IRAN as IRAN is working with Russia and Syria . Russia has only one navy base in the world that is in Syria only .

Trading at 7.0 with paid up shares of 3.32 billions , means the market cap is more than 21.0 billions . Unless the company can maintain its profits with a compounded growth rate of more than 20 % for the next few years , for a investment in a company with a PE of more than 50 times is too adventurous .

When SUPERMX was traded around RM 4.70 and was awarded some best awards few years ago , The shares price dropped all the way to around 1.60 few years ago , same for TOPGLOVE and MUDAJYA . So , when the shares prices were pushed up few times from the low , we have to be careful .

Harta was traded between 2.1 - 2.5 ( adjusted price for Bonus issue of 1 for 1 on 23 March 2018 )
from 8 Nov 2016 - 8 May 2017 .after that it was pushed up to the highest of 7.45 yesterday .
Trading at a PE ratio of more than 50 times . A PE ratio of 50 means If you invest at a PE of 50 , you need 50 years to recover back your principal only on the assumption that the profits are same for the fifty years , sound funny .
Unless you are the boss and you are 100 % sure your company's will grow at a compounded
rate of more than 20 - 30 % for the next 5 - 10 years . PE ratio is also a factor to consider for your investment .
Same cases like Mudajya was traded more than RM 5.0 more than 5 years ago , other cases like HENGYUAN , PETRONM in last year .

Sapulah sekaligus ???

Better deduct 60 millions out of the 70 millions remuneration to employ 60 senior management staff to help to run the company .

Opening , bad sign .

The proposed rights issue of 9.99 billions @ 0.30 with free warrants will change the range of trading , hopefully not like Velesto ( UMWOG ) , but seems likely . Have to be careful .

Sometimes goreng kaki not powerful enough , they need to accumulate bit by bit , every sen count ,
Until they have accumulated almost all , then only they will push up faster because only few retail buyers still holding . When they have pushed up to their target price and want to distribute their shares , the range of up and down will become larger and more volatile .

If results are good , , slowly , slowly can go up to 0.28 - 0.32 .

The major shareholders and the goreng kaki have accumulated enough to push up .

Let assume the sharks , major shareholders and funds managers are holding more than 4billions shares of this counter , if the company is going to bankrupt , they will find way to recover as much money as they can . So , they need to push up and down daily to distribute their shares . They won't be so easily Just let the price drop to 0.04 - 0.05 without retail buyers' buying , like that they have to suffer loss of 2.2billions
( 4 billions x ( 0.60 - 0.05 ) ) . Without the retail buyers' buying along the down trend / distribution path , they themselves will close shop first .

The worst scenario for SAPNRG is like THHEAVY and PERISAI .Even if like THHEAVY , the shares price dropped to 0.06 also rebounded to 0.26 two years ago before it dropped again to 0.06 again on 10April 2017 and rebounded to 0.14 on 27 Oct 2017 .
The second bad scenario may be like VELESTO dropped to 0.28 and rebounded to 0.38 before right issue and then dropped again to 0.28 on 19 Dec 2017 and rebounded to 0.48 on 9 Jan 2018 .
Later , dropped again to 0.215 on 6 April 2018 ,
and rebounded to 0.325 on 16 April 2018 . So there are few rounds up and down .
For the case of SAPNRG , it won't be dropping all the way from 0.60 straight away to 0.04- 0.06 without any rebound .

Most likely the sharks just want to maintain the shares prices at the range between 0.58 - 0.62 . At this moment , I think the big sharks just ask their small MACAI or small sharks to control the price and at the same time let the small MACAI to cari Makan for their daily pocket money .

Anyhow , if you catch a right counter with a lower cost of purchase than the goreng kaki and the counter is undervalued , good future prospects , sharks and major shareholders are accumulating , be patient , surely you be the winner , ultimately they have to push up .

Nowadays , many goreng Kaki for small and medium capital companies , all become
ball- less , not like those days second board bull run , they just push up and down few times a day , like Timbermaster , dropped from 23.00 to 17.00 within T + 7 , T + 8 jumped up to 23.0 again and many other counters .
Nowadays , they will collect almost or cornered the counter , then push up 30 % , 50 % or 100% or more than on their muscle and the story .

A buy call or a promotion to buy a good or deep undervalued counter to retail investors is indeed a good job done for retail buyers . The only thing is the retail buyers have to do their homework and to make their own decision .

For 0.035 - 0.04 , down side risk is very much limited , and there is a good indicator , very thin volume , this indicates that major shareholders and sharks are not selling in view of the company is going to bankrupt same as HUAAN case . The question is when Will it starts to move up ??

If we look at the trend of the sharks goreng the shares prices for the past few years , excluding those lousy and small goreng Kaki , normally the shares will be pushed up for at least 50% , 100 % -300 , like HENGYUAN , Pmetal , Harta , or even Huuan , and actively traded for few months to years , until the results become not good or bad .

If the shares prices have doubled , tripled or few times higher with high daily volume traded , and the shares prices stagnant , within a tight range and the selling price of the products of company are dropping , like selling price of crude oil was dropping for the years 2014 - 2016 , meaning prospects of the company Will not be good or even bad , then we must sell .

When the shares are just pushing up or just beginning , we can buy and average down and ride along the uptrend until the shares prices have been doubled or tripled with very high volume or top active for few days or weeks , then we should seriously consider to sell or when the first Sharp drop occur .

In shares market , when the shares prices are trading in lower range with good prospects in the future , whatever news or rumours saying that the shares prices will be pushing up , most likely the shares prices will be pushing up . If the shares prices had been pushed up for few hundred percent or few times higher , like HENGYUAN from 2.00 to 19.50 , or Jaks from 0.40 - 1.70 , whatever good news whether is from Mr Kyy or the sharks's mouth , we have to let go , as I mentioned before when HENGYUAN was traded between 19.0 - 16.00 .

The shares prices of Lionind traded below
0.80 -0.615 recently were only for 2 - 3 weeks only , and it was traded around 0.8 - 0.9 for another few weeks . It is very unlikely Mr KYY can accumulate all his purchases below 0.80 unless he had brought the shares more than 1 year ago . It is very likely he has purchased along the way to 1.10 or more than that . So this is just the beginning .

If we look at those counters involving Mr Kyy , HENGYUAN was pushed up from 2.0 to 19.50 , Jaks from 0.5 - 1.70 and others like VS , LiI hen ,
At least pushed up for more than 200% . .
If what we are told were to be true , a 100 % push up from 0.80 = 1.60 , a 200 % = 2.40 .
Normally the first push up will have a correction to shake out the contra players and panicky just like Jaks dropped from 1.30 to 1.00 in the first round before pushed up to 1.70 . This is the tactics always use by them .

Most likely they are doing dump and pump along the way of accumulation .

KWAP acquired 5 millions shares on 13August and 8.8389 millions shares on
14 August 2018 , sold in last year now bought back .

After consolidation of 4 became 1 , this counter become a small capital company .
Now market is goreng with many small capital companies , and almost all the shares have gone back into the hands of sharks and the major shareholders . Can monitor closely about this company .

Sometimes in years between 1999- 2001 , an author named GORDON Chang or Gordon Chong , in his book he said that China will collapse , but China's GDP rose from the 6 th or 7 th to second largest economy in the world . China was the largest economy in the world for few tho years until opium war .
It's GDP was 1/3 of the world before the war which was similar size as USA during 1993-1996 .

For those who want to buy 10000 or 20000 shares , can look at MHB also . Can buy 5000 shares @ 0.79-0.795 , average down 5000 @ 0.74-0.745 , then average down 10000 @ 0.68- 0.685 , and keep for target price @ 0.94 - 0.98 .

I have read two books regarding Investment in shares in 2008 , both authors are head of funds managers in China , less than 40 years old at the time , graduated from engineering majoring in physics . One of them managed a fund of more than RMB 100 billions and the other managed RMB few hundred billions .
Both of them share a same opinion that is we must hold the shares in order to make more gains or returns . If you think the company's shares can give you a good returns , you must buy and hold . If you think the shares is going to drop further then just sell and wait for other opportunities .

Seems like a more sustainable rally across the board is running especially oil and gas counters .

Most of the buyers queued @0.58 and most of the sellers queued @ 0.585 are sharks's , if retail buyers want to buy , they have to take the sellers price @ 0.585 , and if the retail buyers want to sell , they have to give to the buyers @ 0.58 . So , you can calculate the gains obtained by the sharks daily . If retail buyers bought total of 2 millions shares and sold total of 2.0 millions shares , the sharks gains 10000 .
If retail buyers bought 3millions shares , and sold 1 million shares , then the sharks Will push down the price for the next few days . So , the sharks gains 5000 on the Transaction ( T ) day , and other gains on the next few days . How many sens the sharks want to push down depend on how many shares they have sold . They will repeat this process daily until break out , either push up or push down .

To Mobuzz , Thank you . Just to share some thinking .

I think one of the main reasons that this counter is trading within a tight range is due the sharks have not accumulated enough those shares which they have distributed since last year . Besides that , the company needs more contracts and if the remuneration can be reduced from 72 m to 12 m , indirectly the company can reduce losses by
60 m per annum .

Other than those counters which have started panic sell down since end of last year like Sapnrg , HENGYUAN , PETRONM etc or those counters the sharks have just completed their distribution programs recently , most of the counters shares which have been quiet down for few years , the shares are more likely in the hand of the major shareholders , or their agents or the sharks . If the market sentiment is good , they can GORENG up easily .

Bursa Malaysia was having a down trend from Nov 2012 until GE 13 on 5 May 2013 . After that the market recovered and was pushing up for few months until Oct 2013 .
Bursa Malaysia was having the same down trend generally across the board from last until GE 14, 9 May 2018 ., but this round dropped further until end of May 2018 .
Market recovered back in June and it seems like making a U turn . Hopefully the market will continue up trend for few months .

To Tradeshare , you are welcomed .
MRCB and UEMS have some advantages compare to other small paid up companies from the points of liquidity , occur rate of pushing up , strong and good connections , won't go bankrupt so easily , but they need to have some charges in government's policies which will be in favour of them . Some small capital companies can be just " Goreng up " with nothing good . So you may have to forgone other opportunities and be patience .

Recently ,
MRCB rebounded from 0.68 - 0.74 ( 27 % returns ) and UEMS 0.70 - 0.87 ( 24 % returns ) . The main advantages for these two counters are if market sentiment is good , they will move up and down side risk limited .

To Tradeshare ,
From my observations over the last 20 years , besides some blue chips counters like MAYBANK dropped to around 2.80 in 1998 when KLCI was around 262 points , then rebounded to more than 14.00 and had given few times bonus , and now hovering around 9.80 .
The other counters which had been pushed up for few times or more than ten times are MRCB and UEMS .

MRCB's major shareholder is EPF and some other big local funds . between 1999 - 2000 , it was pushed up from 0.50 - 5.00 , 2006 - 2007 0.60 - 3.0 , 2010 - 2013 , 1.00 - 2.50 with high volume traded .

Uems ( formerly known as uemland and Renong ) . Major shareholders now are KHAZANAH , EPF other big local funds . Between 1998-1999 ( Renong) was pushed up from 0.30 - 3.30 , 2006 - 2007( Uemland ) , was pushed up from
0.30 - 5.00 , between 2010 - 2011 , 0.50 - 2.0 , between 2012 - 2013 , from 1.60 - 3.60 ., 2015 July - Dec 2015 , 0.77 - 1.50 , with high volume traded .

These two counters are for those who want to buy few hundred thousand shares - few millions shares .which have liquidity , strong connection , big lo funds and won't go bankrupt so easily .
For those who have patient , more money , do not shift from one counter to another counters , may consider .

From my observations , the shares prices movement of most of the listed companies in BURSA , we can roughly put in the following ways :

For big paid up and medium paid up with good prospects or performances ,

1) The major shareholders , sharks and funds managers will accumulate at the lower range .

2) slowly push up , level by level if results are good .

3) push up to the higher ( overpriced range ) and slowly distribute to the retail buyers . When only few retail buyers interested or no more interested retail buyers Then they will press down the price to a lower level for distribution again .

For penny stocks ,

1) the major shareholders and the sharks Will accumulate at the very low range for few years or ten years until almost cornered the shares .

2) push up the shares 100 % or few hundred % within a short period of time ( depend on how powerful the sharks are ) for redistribution to the retail buyers . After they have achieved their target , they will stop "GORENG" for the counter for few years .

In my opinion , a successful investor must have the following :-

1) Do homework or do research about the
company they want to invest ,
2) must have holding power or don't over traded
3) must be patient , don't panic
4) must be brave ( when everyone don't want
and the company has good prospects in
future )
5) must not be too greedy when the company is
overpriced and decisive to take
profit or cut loss .
6) must be very disciplined .

Our market is not an efficient market and mostly controlled by the sharks . Sometimes a counter's price can break few resistances and sometimes it can have Sharp drop and break few support level in few trading days . So , it is very hard to predict the movement . From the price movement for few years , volume traded , fundamental points , who are the main shareholders , what is the future prospects of the company , may be we can decide whether should invest in the counter or not .

I had read an article sometimes between 1995 - 1997 ( can't recall exactly in which year ) . The article was a survey carried out by some big Broking firms in HONG KONG . They found out that if an investor had been invested in a particular counter for 10 years , but if they don't owned the shares for the particular period of 42 working days or have sold , missed the bot , then what ever efforts they have done is useless .
Like HENGYUAN was pushed up from 3.00 - 19.50 , PETRONM 5 - 15.50 , HUAAN 0.04 - 060 - Iwcity 0.80 - 3.0 in last year . HWGB from 0.20 - 1.0 in the beginning of 2011 . UEMS in 2013, from 1.7 - 3.60 , KNM 0.40 - 1.16 , THHEAVY 0.30 - 1.10 in 2014 and many other similar cases .

As a retail investor , the main constrain or problem we face is money or our funds . Sometimes the counter we buy is trading within a tight range for few months until we lose patient and change to other counters . Then the counter which we had sold started to jump up .
Sometimes to get a 20 - 30 or 20 - 50 % , it may only take 2 - 3 weeks , but if you want a 100 % returns - it may take more than a year .
So , we may have to change our strategy to make a 20 - 30 % - or 30 - 50 % returns ( with higher probability of occurrence ) each time on each counter . If we can do it 3 or 4 times in a year , the results are more than 100 % .
Some counters the occur rate of giving 20 - 30 % returns is more than 90 % with minimum down side risks . Some counters may give you 50 - 100 % returns but at the same time you may suffer a loss of 100 % .
Even if you buy SAPNRG 10000@ 0.58 and average down 20000 @ 0.52 and wait to sell 10000 @ 0.72 and 20000 @ 0.78 , your return is 40 % , or buy VELESTO 10000 @ 0.28 , and average down 20000 @ 0.24 , and wait to sell 10000 @ 0.38 , and 20000 @ 0.39 , your return is more than 40 % also .
Sometimes to get a return of 100 % or more , you need some luck and good patient to wait for a bigger correction or Sharp drop in the market like what have happened in May recently . Counters like GBGAQRS rebounded from 0.62 - 1.30 or YTLPWR 0.735 - 1.20 etc . Some counters are picking up from the bottom like HO HUP , MIECO , UEMS , etc

For those who want to buy 10000 - 50000 shares in a counter , there are at least more than 100 counters for you to invest for few weeks to a year with a return of 20 - 50 % .
For examples , buy Ho Hip 10000 shares @0.52 , average down 20000 shares @ 0.46 , and 20000 shares @ 0.41 , and wait for the target @ 0.68 , 0.78 .
Buyer MIECO 10000 @ 043 and average down 20000 @ 0.36. , then wait for target price at 0.58 , 0.64 . Buy Uems 10000@ 0.82 , average 20000 @ 0.76 and 20000 @ 0.72 , wait to sell 10000 @ 0.88 , 20000@ 0.94 , 20000 @ 0.98 . Or buy MRCB 10000 @ 0.70 , average 20000 @ 0.62, and 20000 @ 0.56 then wait to sell 10000 @ 0.78 , 20000 @ 0.88 and 20000 @ 0.94 . Buy Owg 10000 @ 0.92 , average 20000 @ 0.86 then wait to sell 10000 @ 0.99. 10000 @ 1.04 and 10000 @ 0.98 . Buy TUNEPRO 10000 @ 0.92 , average 20000 @ 0.84-0.86 , then wait to sell 10000 1.04 , 10000 @ 1.12 and 10000 @ 1.18 and many other counters .

Sapnrg is a counter for those retail buyers who want to buy few hundred thousand shares or few millions shares and wait for 50 % - few hundred % returns within one or two years . Other small paid up or tight controlled companies , you can only buy 10000 shares - 50000 shares in order to make some gains within few weeks - a year . If you buy few hundred thousand or one million shares in these small or tight controlled companies , you may have to wait for few years .

Those counters which have been pushed up few hundred percent , the first Sharp drop will have a Sharp rebound because retail buyers dare not to buy . Subsequent Sharp drops , the rebound become smaller and and , like HENGYUAN , PETRONM etc , may be Topglove will follow the same pattern .

If you play contra for Sapnrg at this moment , may be 10000 shares or 20000. Or maximum 50000 shares , you may make profits 1 time out of 5 times if you are good enough , but if you buy contra 200,000 shares or 500,000 shares each time even you are good enough , most likely you will lose 9 times out of ten times .

If we look at VELESTO ( UMWOG ) , it plunged to the lowest range of 0.21-0.22 only in a day and rebounded very quickly to around 0.30 , and is hovering around 0.28- 0.30 for few months . It's shares.price dropped to 0.21-0.22 , mainly due to (1) market sentiment was bad at that time , ( 2 ) , the sharks purposely pushed to that low level to brain wash the retail buyers , to frighten them and to mind set the retail buyers thinking so that they won't buy anymore shares or will sell their shares when the price rebound a bit , may be 0.35- 0.40 .

Same things happen to SAPNRG at this moment . The sharks also pushed the shares price to 0.395- .0.40 in one or two days ( 15 March 2018)
and rebounded quickly to 0.53- 0.55 the next day . These are the sharks tactics and tricks . Already 4 months ( 15 March 2018 - 20 July 2018) , the shares price didn't drop to 0.395 - 0.40 again . As I mentioned previously , some times in March and April 2018 , if retail buyers bought around 0.47 , the maximum loss is 0.47 if they don't play contra , and most likely they will suffer a loss of 0.17 ( 0.47 - 0.30 ) within the next two years , but in fact they could have made few rounds profits .

As I mentioned before , if a company's shares price has been pushed up few times , or 5 or 10 times from the lower range before the sharks started to push , we should not chase at the highest range , like HENGYUAN was pushed up within a.YEAR from less than.3.0 to 19.50 , and must not average down along the down trend and should cut loss at the higher range , same cases like IWCITY ( 0.9 - 3.0 ) , PETRONM 7.0'- 15.50 , UEMS ( 1.7 - 3.60 ) .

For VELESTO , the sharks have collected a lots , if good news were to announce , the sharks can push up the shares price easily ..

For Sapnrg case , the sharks still need more times to do pump and dumps , and longer time to collect back , So , unlikely to press down to
10 - 20 sen level unless very bad news like another 2-3 billions quarterly losses again . Most likely the shares prices will be hovering around 0.50 - 0.70 in order for them to collect back their shares which were sold in last year . So for those inexperienced retail buyers , they should not be panic buy or panic sell for the few sens up and down , or simply cut loss at this level .

Paid up of 5,992,155,087 shares x 15.90% x RM 0.595 = RM 566..873 millions ( total cost of investment at current market price of 0.595 ) . So , if any one invest this amount , and get the same remuneration of 71 millions , only need 7.984 years to recover back his investment or a 12.5 *% annual return . Seems good .

Today's SunBiz states shareholders holding 81.7 % of voting rights voted for the re-election of TS Shahril , indirectly hinted the sharks have at least more than 81 % controlling interest in this company . It also means that the company will not go bankrupt so fast . They will have to goreng up again , only the matter of time .