@gohkimhock the triple variant as alleged by you is a very serious offence. As at todate, I have never heard of triple variant. My news are updated by Twitter in real time.
09/05/2021 11:48 PM

Pls watch this youtube link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z3kYRYWaOM

Your ignorance is making a fool out of you.

@Stockisnotfun Tomorrow up or down? Still got around 10 hours left before market open.
09/05/2021 11:17 PM

The more important question we need to figure out is where are we in this pandemic? Its not an easy question but we need to take a position thru our own judgement. Whether we are 30% or 50% or 70% or 90% into the pandemic will determine how we make our investment decision. So what is your position?

pls read and watch above whic I posted few days back if you missed them.

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

May 6, 2021 7:06 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(21)00869-2.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gikWt8vAWuc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwcaG9NMtt0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_xQ-SY4ZKI

Covid has mutated to be able to be able transmit virulently thru air-borne. Its also mutating to break through the current vaccines more effectively. Could this combination be the next wave to hit the western developed countries that are highly vaccinated in the coming winter? Yet to be certain but don't assume that the pandemic is oredi over when it is still spreading like wildfire in the developing countries now.

No came from a relative who is the medical field. In fact if you read some of the latest news, this is oredi happening or known to be happening. This virus is mutating to become more effective in infecting human, and its infecting via aerosal or airborne method. That's why it is going straight to the lungs now. Go back to my previous msgs, which I posted some links on this airborne thing.

" If the estimate is correct, we believe that the fifth wave of super virus outbreak will soon appear in Hong Kong and the world!"

Hope this doesn't happen but then again this Covid is the once in a century evil and we are only 15 months into it. Spanish flu took 26 months in a world with 1.5B population. We are now in a 7.8B population world. Think about the implications. I would think its not too unreasonable to believe that we are only halfway thru the pandemic.

Latest news out of friends in China

According to news reports, today there are three Chinese working in India, After returning home from India via Nepal, the initial tests were negative when they arrived in Chongqing, but the doctor still had doubts, so he gave them a CT scan. They were found to have lesions in their lungs and confirmed to be a triple variant of the Indian virus, proving that this Indian super variant can evade current testing, However, most of the checkpoints are only conducted by ordinary tests. Hong Kong and most other countries do not require immigrants to undergo CT scans and do not have sufficient time and resources to do so. If the estimate is correct, we believe that the fifth wave of super virus outbreak will soon appear in Hong Kong and the world!
Message from Singapore:
* virus is back *.
This time there is more energy,
Tactics and camouflage.
The infected person does not cough and has no fever.
* This time the symptoms are joint pain, weakness and loss of appetite. *
Death rates are higher and the time to reach critical is shorter.
Sometimes without symptoms. ..
Be careful. ..！
This strain does not reside in our nasopharyngeal region!
So no more prodromal symptoms such as loss of smell or taste, it attacks the lungs directly, shortening the onset time.
Many patients who do not have a fever,
But X-rays showed moderate chest pneumonia!
Nasal mucosa sieve test often shows COVID19 negative!
More and more false throat and nasal findings.
(COVID19) This means that the virus spreads directly to the lungs, causing acute respiratory distress (hypoxia) from viral pneumonia!
This explains why it became acute and so much more deadly!
Fever may become severe.
Please note:
* Avoid crowded places *
* Keep social distance *
* puts on mask *,
* Wash your hands often with hand soap or soap *.
This outbreak is more deadly than the last one, and caution must be exercised,
Don't neglect!

@pjseow Tantoro, thank you for posting the analysis by Global Market Research
. The Analysis is quite similar to TA analysis quoted by Sin Chew .
Global Market Research provide more details on the amount of losses of revenues and Profit due to Meru plant shutdown . If there was no such loss , Supermx revenue would have been 2.3 B and its PAT about 1.3 B . The ASPs of US 80 to US 110 per 1000 for the contractual shipments in next qtr is also the same as TA numbers .There is One small difference between the two IBs report . While TA reported contractual ASPs for next two qtrs , Global Market Research reported the remaining 3 qtrs with Contractual Agreements . It looks like Supermx will continue to deliver more than one billion profits per qtr for the next 3 qtrs if there is no unforeseen shipment disruption . By end of this year , supermx will have a capacity of 36 billions compared with current 26 billions , an increase of about 38 % . THis will mitigate the ASP loss of 15 to 25 % in 2022 .
08/05/2021 9:22 PM
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Thanks for clarification pjseow. I would not be surprised that the 1B/qtr may extend to 6 qtrs due to the expanded capacity and up coming new Covid variants will continue to impact even the highly vaccinated nations in coming winter and even next year, as people will let their guards down and become reckless during the Covid resting periods.

My 2 cents goes like this, just putting myself in Stanley shoes.....Supermax Qr announced very frankly that ASP drop 15-25%. Nothing to hide. Stanley is challenging the shorties to RSS kaw kaw, to bring the price down so that he and gang can buy cheap cheap and take the company private. Stanley and wife oredi transfered all shares ( around 38.4%)to a Sdn Bhd which may ultimately be the company to takeover as a private entity. This could be the reason why SGX dual listing suddenly taken a back seat. Taking the company private makes a lot of sense now bcos if the shares goes to RM 3.8 again then the market cap is only RM 10b. Now cash in hand is oredi RM 4.5B. Another 6qts with RM1B each , its cash position would have surpass RM 10B assuming no cash dividend by end of CY2022. Stanley and allies probably oredi holding around 50% of total shares if not more. So they only need another 25% of total shares to surpass the 75% shareholders approval votes to take it private - 25% x 2.721b = 680m shares and @RM 4 that is only RM 2.7B. Another 20-25% would be MGO at maybe another RM 3.5B. All in gotta spend RM 6B max. But will have excess of RM 4B from the company after that and own the entire company to enjoy all future earnings. Watch out, this may be the coming trend for all the glove companies bcos they are holding so much cash and with even more coming in over the next 6-8 qtrs that the major shareholders might as well take them private at such cheap price, and keep all the cash in hand to themselves. When everybody wants to buy cheap, I really wonder who are the sor hais that's gonna sell cheap. Maybe Stanley hoping one of them will be the shorties.

Highly likely globally we are only halfway thru the pandemic and probably the worst is yet to come. Scary thoughts but its better to assume the worst and be prepared for the worst than to underestimate the situation and suffer more serious consequences later like India.

Today the selling is well absorbed. So who is buying ?

Haha when most ppl so confident and have no doubt the price will go back to 3.8 , do you think it will happen as most ppl expect? If majority can predict the market correctly together, then the sharks will lose money liao.

when you see 85% of participants here are negative and talk with fear of another 3.8 coming, then the sign is there oredi.

@kltower1 Yeah bro Toneefa, terrorist learn from this pandemic, they don't have to carry bomb, their own body is bomb, just purposely infected by lab virus and sneak into UK US... then biden hailat liao...
06/05/2021 10:41 PM

Its a possibility that some crazy nuts will bring the strong variant that broken thru all vaccines in a small container into US and after the compulsory quarantine period infect himself with it, then start to go around to spread after 3 days and before the symptoms show up. And repeat that in different states. If these ppl are willing to die with a bomb, then this is a walk in a park for them. Hopefully US Govt security agencies are prepared for such things.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/06/asia/nepal-covid-outbreak-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

Rotation one by one by Covid, expanding its experimental labs at staggering rates.

@Moustache When IB downgrade its time to buy . Follow them and buy
06/05/2021 10:24 PM

Yup, as its becoming clear that strong earning will persist for another 3 years, the glove PE will slowly climb up to match the earning potential and increasing ROE

@Agjl https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cover-story-competition-china-l...
06/05/2021 9:59 PM

Supply-demand to reach equilibrium in three years
Allaying the oversupply fears, Margma immediate past president Denis Low highlights that it will take three years before an equilibrium between supply and demand can be achieved. Any new capacity from the local players will be operational on a staggered basis as completion of plants takes 18 to 24 months.

Malaysia accounts for about 68% of global glove supply, followed by Thailand (13%-18%), China (10%) as well as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Low is unfazed by the capacity expansion in countries like the US, China and Thailand. “PPE has become the security item, especially in the US and European countries. It is a security kind of reasoning. They can never be self-sufficient, as it takes years to build big facilities. It won’t affect Malaysia in the interim.

“While Thailand is encouraging local companies to set up plants to capitalise on their resources, that is, natural rubber, they do not have the ecosystem and facilities Malaysian players have. Malaysia is still more conducive for glove manufacturing.

“We are also not fearful of China because it is no longer cheap in terms of costs. Although we are not cheap, we are very efficient and competitive,” he stresses.
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Another 3 years of RM 1B/qtr ? = RM 12B !

Therefore the need for these developed countries to be self-sufficient with PPE especially medical gloves has a high priority and supported with big budgets.

@kltower1 Bill Gates gave a TED Talk speech in 2015 warning people that an infectious virus was a greater risk to humanity than a nuclear war.

in early 2021, Bill Gates, who predicted the pandemic, names the next two monster disasters that could shake our world, he said the next big disasters facing humanity are climate change and bioterrorism.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/5...
06/05/2021 9:38 PM
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Great point Kltower1, this bioterrorism thing will be a great threat even during this pandemic itself. I mean if there is now a new strong variant is discovered that has broken through all the vaccines, some crazy ppl may just smuggle into US or UK as a form of terror attack and start spreading it into different parts of the country. That type of bioterrorism would be difficult to detect and stopped at the border.

@Taipan For those of you who has the holding power, remember anything can happen. Fundamentals are strong. Demand is there and will continue to increase. The only setback is too many players and supply has also increased. Now comes competitive advantage and edge to secure the business.

The top 4 has economies of scale, track records, solid distribution network and firm customers and contracts. They have the expansion as well to counter lower ASP.

Their NP will remain around 1B for a few quarters.
06/05/2021 9:23 PM
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Yup Taipan, I think for now sentiment is ruled by fears of unknown on the falling ASP, the fear that the super profit will suddenly go back to pre-pandemic level by 2H21 or 1H22. That as we know will not be possible, esp for Supermax with OGM strategy in place. And the possibility that we are only half way thru the pandemic looms ahead. Likely Supermax next 8 qtrs will average ard 1B/qtr

@Bullrunrun Supermax makes RM 1 billion but people selling

It is profit RM 1 billion la

How many BURSA companies make RM 1 billion in a quarter.
Cash in hand RM 4 billion or RM 1.40 per share

Mana cari ?

I will continue buying if drop tomorrow
06/05/2021 8:41 PM

At least now u talk with some logic. The company is making billions and giving 0.13 dividend and ppl talk like its going bankrupt. LOL!. ASP is moderating but Supermax is an established OBM with OGM potential, which means it has an edge over most OEM companies. But ASP will suddenly pick up again if Covid outsmart the vaccines and combined with airborne capability to hit the "highly vaccinated" western developed countries this coming winter. Not saying that it will happen but the signs are there that there is a high possibility it will happen. I believe Covid is as smart as our Mr Market by employing the rotation strategy and hitting at targets that you least expect to get hit who let their guards down. Not every country can be as effective as China in controlling its borders and as cooperative and united as its population.

@MoneyMakers @ToneeFa not interested to change ur stubborn mind..see what u want
06/05/2021 8:47 PM

MM, actually at the moment no one really can be sure when this pandemic will end, except maybe God. So we all need to take our position. As I believe Supermax post pandemic value is better than current price especially with its OGM potential, I'm willing to take some risk for better return. My view is likely we are only halfway thru this pandemic. I may be wrong but there's currently signs that supports such view.

@melanie1818181818 bongok, you invested a few thousand but hope the whole world 7B people to suffer so that you can make some pocket money? skam bags like you are wasting oxygen on this earth. pigi mam.p.us la. karma will get you and your family first
06/05/2021 7:45 PM

No need to be so viperous, I think your analysis is quite good and logical as below
" @melanie1818181818 no no no. supermax is keeping the cash for expansion which is actually a good thing if they do exactly as promised. mind that growth will come from higher sales volume at lower asp in the future. so market share will be extremely important. expansions in US and MY will cost 2.5B + 1.8B? if i remember correctly. although this expansion (including UK) will use up the entire current and future cash pile, it will be helpful for future growth
06/05/2021 7:00 PM

@MoneyMakers No need to fearmonger..Israel ICU patients drop below 100 (1K++ in Feb) & average death drop to 2 (peak 65 in Jan)!!

UK/US/Europe all opening up their economies since many alrdy vaccinated..Biden targeting 70% vacc by July 4..EU target 70% vacc by Aug/Sept
06/05/2021 7:13 PM
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The reality with Covid is that if a country though highly vaccinated is not vigilant or does not have the capacity to control its borders, then being highly vaccinated is also useless, as can be seen with Seychelles.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/seychelles-worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-activates-curbs-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/articleshow/82413339.cms

Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against the coronavirus than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge.

The measures, which include bans on the intermingling of households and the early closure of bars, come even as the country has fully vaccinated more than 60% of its adult population with two doses of Covid-19 vaccines. The curbs are similar to those last imposed at the end of 2020.

Post removed.Why?

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(21)00869-2.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gikWt8vAWuc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwcaG9NMtt0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_xQ-SY4ZKI

Covid has mutated to be able to be able transmit virulently thru air-borne. Its also mutating to break through the current vaccines more effectively. Could this combination be the next wave to hit the western developed countries that are highly vaccinated in the coming winter? Yet to be certain but don't assume that the pandemic is oredi over when it is still spreading like wildfire in the developing countries now.

its good to hear so many negative comments even from the glove lovers. If everybody is selling I wonder who is buying ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-05-05-story-h1564292574-SUPERMAX_EARNINGS_RIGHT_ON_TARGET.jsp

Excellent write up by Omione. He is right, the problem was self inflicted. We expected a spectacular result that is out of this world, ignoring the challenges faced during when factories were infected and closed due to SOP compliance and the drop in demand in demand as global daily cases drop during Jan to March 21. But as cases started to rise in many different parts of the world now, we can see that Covid is not gonna just fade away without a good fight against vaccines. We can sense now that Covid presense will prolonged into 2022 and even 2023. Therefore, for Supermax and the Big4, the strong earnings should continue into 2023 albeit with lower ASP but still good performance. NP between 600m to 1B over next to years with ensure the PE will rise back to at least between 8 to 10.

@shearer202 How can their boss so frankly told the media that ASP will drop 15 - 25 % soon ! This time will really drag all the glove counters kaw kaw , i dont there will be super thursday anymore !
05/05/2021 8:58 PM

On the bright side, with a drop of ASP ard 20%, Supermax can still have a NP of RM 1b. With the OBM and soon OGM modules, Supermax will be much more resilient post pandemic.

@Moustache Earn rm1bil in one quarter still below expectation ? Market expect every quarter continue up few hundred mil ? Even Tesla giant company also earn few hundred mil per quarter.
05/05/2021 7:20 PM
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You are right. I think we hold too high expectation for Supermax. Actually the performance is good at RM 1B NP with 0.13 div except we hope for excellent results, therefore the sense of disappointment.

TG problem with US CBP will further benefit Supemax directly. This means TG is definitely not in the OGM picture in US.

@pjseow Ben Tan Thanks for compiling the glove export data . I think the most likely scenario is scenario 2 . I estimate the PAT margin to be 58 % . With this margin ,the supermx earning may hit 3.12 x 0.58 = 1.81 billion.
05/05/2021 1:59 PM
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I concur wuth Ben Tan analysis and agree with pjseow with scenario 2 outcome. Glove NP 1.81b + mask NP of est 300m = 2.1b . At 2.1b EPS = 0.77 !! If this result come true then not surprise to have 0.30 dividend. This will create a baseline price of RM 8.0 to ensure Supermax retain in KLCI.
Any further OGM news will add further to the OrGasM effect. Likely this time will see price ejaculate upwards after QR announce.

and also " Moving forward, RHB Research has retained its “buy” rating on Supermax alongside its discounted cash flow (DCF)-derived target price of RM10.60."

https://focusmalaysia.my/markets/special-dividend-galore-for-supermax-come-june-2021/

“We participated in Supermax’s analyst briefing and returned feeling positive on the company’s long-term prospects,” wrote analyst Alan Lim in a company update. “We expect it to distribute special dividends in 3Q FY6/2021F and 4Q FY6/2021F.”

Lim further expects the dividend to be in the form of cash or shares. According to him, the company’s net cash level has surged to RM3.41 bil (RM1.32/share) as of end-December 2020 versus end-June 2020’s RM856 mil.

“Additionally, it currently holds 151.9 million treasury shares which could be utilised as dividends in the form of shares or for listing purposes on the Singapore Exchange (SGX),” noted the analyst.

Moving forward, RHB Research has retained its “buy” rating on Supermax alongside its discounted cash flow (DCF)-derived target price of RM10.60.

“In the short term, we expect earnings to continue its rise in 3Q FY6/2021F premised on higher average selling price (ASP),” opined the research house.

“Beyond that, Supermax is a beneficiary of stable gloves growth demand of 8-10% annually. Our ESG (environment, social & governance) score for Supermax is 2.89 (out of 4).”
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A month old article that is still relevant for our refence. Take note on the “We expect it to distribute special dividends in 3Q FY6/2021F and 4Q FY6/2021F.” and “Additionally, it currently holds 151.9 million treasury shares which could be utilised as dividends in the form of shares or for listing purposes on the Singapore Exchange (SGX),” statements.

better chance for further upside

2 lots become 3 lots and hope for better dividend too !

Actually those also holding Harta will do better if they convert some of their holding into Supermax.

To stay in Bursa KLCI, Supermax minimum price has to be around RM8 which will put in in the 22nd position, to be safe to qualify by June. This will be important factor for Supermax to apply for SGX dual listing. So what will be the management strategy to stay in KLCI?

@super911 In Harta report, there is this very important line:

The higher sales revenue was attributable to the increase in average selling price for the quarter.
04/05/2021 4:15 PM

It's obvious that when u see increase in NP margin, then likely its due to ASP increase.

By next QR Supermax baseline is around 8.0

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-02-06-story-h1540340424-Top_Glove_Hartalega_Supermax_The_US_Demand_for_Gloves_and_Homeland_Prod.jsp

Those who missed it should read the above article by Ben Tan. Its a good analysis of the OGM potential with US Gov't. Hope Supermax can clinch the 25b/year supply deal mentioned :

"In December 2020, U.S. Brigadier General David Sanford, the director of the Supply Chain Task Force of the United States, said that the country plans to invest US$500 million in the setting up of glove factories and nitrile rubber production facilities in the country. The exercise is expected to result in increasing the country's production capacity to 25 billion gloves per year by June 2022 (source). The numbers and the timeline coincide with Supermax's investment plan, so it is not impossible that at least part of the allocated funding will go specifically to Supermax."

Chief, the next level of the game is OGM. K+ has not mention anything on their OGM potential, although Ansell might have the capacity to clinch some OGM deals. Gotta wait and see. But we all know Supermax has been harping and taking strategic action on the OGM biz module. My all in bet is still with Supermax first.

chief999 last year no. 1 gloves = Carepls, no. 2 gloves = Super.... forsee this will happen this year too :)
04/05/2021 2:43 PM

My guess is of course 1)) SupermanX 2. K+ for this year :)

@chief999 Super and Carepls, with Carepls leading the pack... :)

ToneeFa Looks like this Qtr only SupermanX will fly leaving behind the rest.
04/05/2021 2:43 PM

Ya Chief , looks like K+ is the dark horse running side by side with the black Puma. I think likely K+ will also announce OGM deals soon. This OGM thingy will soon differentiate man from the boys.

Its highly likely when Supermax QR is out, the baseline price value would be around RM 8.0 due to its OEM+OBM+OGM combination, allowing it to do better than the rest post pandemic.

Looks like this Qtr only SupermanX will fly leaving behind the rest.

@Jack Khan OH NO Higher revenue does not translate to higher profit! Sell more for same or less profit. Which only mean lower ASP
04/05/2021 2:06 PM

Harta NP margin has increased slightly, which means higher ASP than previous qtr. The small increase in NP is in proportion to its slight increase in revenue. Which means Harta has not increased its sales volume very much from previous qtr. However, it does show that the ASP is plateauing which is to be expected.

Post removed.Why?

Everybody has their rights to put forth their point of view for consideration. Although it can be a bit annoying that those who have sold off earlier and have missed out on the current uptrend are making the most noise and scraping the bottom of barrel to come up with some arguments against the glove stocks as if their arguments can suddenly reverse the trend to match their belief that glove bull run has ended. If really that happens then it would pacify their ego and redeem their earlier decision to sell off. However, if the uptrend keeps going up and turn into a super bull for glove, then they will be having endless sleepless nights regretting and worst still to swallow their highly guarded pride.

One very important aspect of being an OGM player is that they must be able to commit to deliver the quantity needed during a pandemic emergency in a short time frame for that particular country as stated in the contract even if it means locking out supplies to other customers. Otherwise they can be sued.