Posted by Ramada > Feb 19, 2018 12:17 PM | Report Abuse

Shut down NOT mean they r stop selling products. They have enough refinery oil in their inventory. Please check David's analysis.

I think shutdown will affect Q3 2018 result.
Please note that RM 495 million reinvestment allowance will cover back some losses.
Hence 2018 net profit will still be good.
Please tell me any other stock in KLSE can make EPS of 2.50 per year.

There is a benchmark in refinery stock.
PER of refinery in Spore is 15.
PER of Hengyuan for 2017 is 3.8 assuming the EPS is 3.70 at the price of 14.00
Forward PER of Hengyuan for 2018 is 5.68 assuming the EPS is 2.50 at the price of 14.00

All refineries have to do maintenance once in every 3 years.
Shutdown is part and parcel of this type of industry.
Not a fair comparison if you view the stock on a year basis.
Should view the stock on 3 years basis to calculate the average EPS.

I have nothing much to do during CNY, I just put in some effort to look into US stock market and HK stock market.

I found that most of the stocks listed in US and HK, the price is no longer cheap. Any stock with PER < 10 is quite difficult to find.
This is the scenario in a very bullish stock market.

KLSE is not bullish at all for the last 3 years.
It started to be bullish at the end of 2017.
Unfortunately there is a big correction in January 2018, the price of most of the stock dropped back in February 2018.

When KLSE is very bullish like HK or US stock market, I am very sure you cannot find any stock with PER < 10.

The present PER for Hengyuan is 3.5, many people are not responsible to shout sell and tell readers here the price of Hengyuan will drop to 6,5 or 2. This type of price is not a fair price if you do your homework well.

Swapping Hengyuan to buy Jaks is not a smart move, you are changing a diamond ring to a silver ring. Think hard before you swap.

The price can stay above 13.52 for today is good enough.
Do not move up north too fast, I still want to buy on breakout.

Commerce Department suggests Trump impose steep tariffs or quotas on foreign steel and aluminum — sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/commerce-department-suggests-trump-imp...

No firm decision on this matter. Trump may not agree.
Decision will be made in April 2018 and it takes time to implement it if Trump agreed.
Please do not impose fear unnecessary.

Post removed.Why?

Posted by siewnam > Feb 18, 2018 07:20 PM | Report Abuse

resume paying tax will minus 25% from 2018 earning, 2 months shutdown could caused a quarter loss, n with lower crackspread, estimate eps for 2018 is about rm 1.50.

I believe you did not factor in RM 495 million reinvestment allowance. If you factor in, the EPS for 2018 should be around 2.50.
Please check again.

I have nothing much to do during CNY, I just put in some effort to look into US stock market and HK stock market.

I found that most of the stocks listed in US and HK, the price is no longer cheap. Any stock with PER < 10 is quite difficult to find.
This is the scenario in a very bullish stock market.

KLSE is not bullish at all for the last 3 years.
It started to be bullish at the end of 2017.
Unfortunately there is a big correction in January 2018, the price of most of the stock dropped back in February 2018.

When KLSE is very bullish like HK or US stock market, I am very sure you cannot find any stock with PER < 10.

The present PER for Hengyuan is 3.5, many people are not responsible to shout sell and tell readers here the price of Hengyuan will drop to 6,5 or 2. This type of price is not a fair price if you do your homework well.

Swapping Hengyuan to buy Jaks is not a smart move, you are changing a diamond ring to a silver ring. Think hard before you swap.

A good article. Good job.

STC1136,

You are very good, congra on your good prediction.
Good work

stockraider,

I remember I saw you post an article saying Hengyuan is building a new plant beside the old plant to produce 126KB capacity.

Is it true ?
Please enlighten me.

Ssteel result is good, likewise Masteel.
CNY rally is on for steel bar stocks.

Look at the result of CSCStel, the Q4 2017 result of Masteel should be good.
The share prices of Annjoo and Lionind are also moving north, all good news are in place now.
Waiting to collect CNY ang pow from Masteel.

Posted by pitbull > Feb 13, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

DIVIDEND COMING LOH..??
WOW
RM 0.80 ?

If Hengyuan gives out dividend of RM 0.80, the share price of Hengyuan will skyrocket up the roof.
Hope your information is reliable and it is good news to us.

Posted by laulau > Feb 13, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

The next Qtr's results should be out by 28 February? 1 day before Chap Goh Meh...

Since you had done many analysis, is Q4 2017 very good ?
Please advise.

I think Q4 2017 result will be very good.
I hope the management of Hengyuan will declare a dividend of RM 0.50 in view of good 2017 earning.
If RM 0.50 dividend is declared, many institutional funds will be interested to invest in Hengyuan. The share price of Hengyuan will rocket up the roof like Nestle.
I pray the management of Hengyuan will consider this important tips to improve the share price.
The ball is in the management of Hengyuan's court now.

I was told the management of Hengyuan has invited all institutional fund managers and analysts to attend briefing while announcing Q4 2017 result.
This is a good step forward to improve the share price.

Please do not waste your time with them.

The price of Hengyuan will not drop to 10, 6, 5 or 2.
So far they did not do any homework or provide any calculation to show the target price of 10, 6, 5 or 2.

Shouting sell !! Drop !! 10 !! 6 !! 5 !! 2 !! will not make the price of Hengyuan drops.

Why need to reply to them ? Let them shout until no saliva.
I do not even want to read their write up because it is a waste of time.
Please be focus to win big on Hengyuan.

DJI is showing sign of reversal unless 23,360 is broken again.
To me, the candle on 9/2/2018 is a bit like a Hammer indirectly.
DJI had completed a,b,c correction.

If 23,360 is broken again, it is not a correction on DJI. It is going to be a crash if DJI breaks 21,292 which is a 20% correction from top.

Posted by leechen88 > Feb 10, 2018 09:36 PM | Report Abuse

If next q results will lower than 100m ....will u buy now n wait till may financial results? Kxx n others will not add after this q results. Sell when u still profitable

Q4 2017 or Q1 2018, the net profit will be higher than 100 million no matter how you count.
Quarter results of Q4 2017, Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 will be good.

2015 is a bear market in KLSE, uncle Koon made so much money on VS, Latitud, Hevea and Liihen.
Assume 2018 is also a bear market, there are some stock outperform FBMKLCI. Hengyuan is definitely one of them due to explosive earning.

Some stock still can perform even there is a crash in US market.
To me, US market is a correction, not a crash.

Posted by David Gunter > Feb 9, 2018 10:07 AM | Report Abuse

Last 2 weeks made 5 figures buying on dips and sell in the next 2 to 3 days

OTB helped us to be a millionaire. We made million on Hengyuan.

Please be realistic and honest, do not simply tell lies to bad mouth OTB.
Please talk with fact and figure.

Not sure don't say it here. Must have good principle so that you are blessed to win big in KLSE.

You will do well if you are honest.

Posted by David Gunter > Jan 28, 2018 04:25 PM | Report Abuse

A lot of soh hai comment KYY sold la this la that la like he told them personally. OTB did sell his at higher prices and ask his follower to buy; so what. Idiots la

Ans : You are telling lies to bad mouth OTB.
OTB told his followers to sell Hengyuan at 17.48 after OTB sold.
OTB never tell his followers to buy while he is selling.

OTB is telling his followers to buy back Hengyuan on weakness around 12.00.

No hurry, still have a lot of opportunity to buy back next week.
Hope the price of Hengyuan can drop further.
The lower the price, the better is the bargain.

From David Gunter's posting, he also wants to buy cheap.

When someone I know promotes, market will listen to his promotion.
That is the beauty of this person.

Posted by 秦梦瑶 > Feb 8, 2018 09:57 AM | Report Abuse

姐忙着沪深，但听说有人骂姐。
你们这些民众别yy了，姐若真撤资大家就 9.88 过春节

秦梦瑶, you also want to frighten readers here.
A beautiful girl like you should not use the above statement.
There is a benchmark on refinery stocks worldwide.
There is a fair value on the stock.
Trading at a PER of < 5 is not fair because we cannot assume Hengyuan is a China stock like other red chips.
Petronm is a fair stock to compare against Hengyuan.
2017 earning of Hengyuan is too high to be used because of no tax on its earning.
Shouting the price to drop below 10 is not a logical statement because this figure does not make any sense.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Feb 8, 2018 09:46 AM | Report Abuse

@Zhuge_Liang All promoters extrapolate current trend is going to continue - This 300+ mil. per qtr can continue, which is what, 40-50% ROIC a year is sustainable for the long-term. They could be right. I am just a skeptic. OF course, this doesn't factor in the price you buy. It depends on the degree of your belief if this can be realised.

I think you are a gentleman, hence I just express my opinion only.
There is a benchmark on refinery stocks worldwide.
There is a fair value on the stock.
Trading at a PER of < 5 is not fair because we cannot assume Hengyuan is a China stock like other red chips.
Petronm is a fair stock to compare against Hengyuan.
2017 earning of Hengyuan is too high to be used because of no tax on its earning.
Shouting the price to drop below 10, 5 or 2 is not a logical statement because these figures do not make any sense.
My opinion only.

Post removed.Why?

DJI is up 136 point now, very green.

European markets are recovering well, believe DJI will be green tomorrow.
Let us hope for it and must have confidence and faith on US markets.

US markets will not collapse or crash with good economy data. Fearing of interest rate hike will not cause US stock markets to crash.

The drop from high below 10% is called correction.
The drop from high > 20% is called crash.
Too early to tell.

Do not be very sure the price of Hengyuan will drop < 10.00.
What for shouting everyday to create fear here.
Saying it once or twice is good enough, not repeating everyday.

Very sure, please show your calculation. So far no paperwork to show, only shouting everyday.

11.32 is the worst price.
Did not break new low even in this big correction.
Believe the worst is over.
Need to breakout at 13.82 to start explosive uptrend.

Nasdaq future is green now.

Posted by Jelas Ulung > Feb 6, 2018 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

More than 10% hrc transactions are mine :)

The share price has not hit lower low yet.
Still above 11.32.
No reason to cut loss.
This is my opinion only.

Posted by filidon > Feb 6, 2018 09:35 AM | Report Abuse

never worry about DJI plunge 1000 point. Because the economic of USA had turned better due to increased payroll. The US market is concern only on hike rate and they dump the share.

I agreed with your statement. I believe we will do well in this cheap sale opportunity.
This is a rare opportunity.
Hope for the best.

valuelucker,

Very good example. I agreed with you.
Always remember to buy good fundamental stock, nothing will go wrong.

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kenlee > Feb 5, 2018 03:05 PM | Report Abuse

how bout those people that create greed to other ? tp 22 lar, tp 40 lar, tp 100 lar

They talk with facts and figures. They show their calculation on EPS.
Did those people created fear show any calculation or factual information ? No.
Sell !! Sell is not information.

Posted by 秦梦瑶 > Feb 5, 2018 02:07 PM | Report Abuse

:-)

I think you are very good in investing and mean business in your words.
I saw your beautiful photo.

Posted by PureBULL . > Feb 3, 2018 01:19 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Zhuge_Liang,
Allow me to add something out of point.

Now we know HENGYUAN's certainly in GOOD hands with the greatest mind on earth.

Comments
I cannot find any stock in KLSE with such explosive earning and low PER.
Hope to buy more when there is more correction.
My sifu made me a millionaire by buying into this stock in 2017.

Posted by Vince Sinclair > Feb 3, 2018 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

Shandong Hengyuan has already reached Euro 6 standards actually.

Comments
I agreed with your statement. It is true.

I had checked Google before I post, Euro 6 will be implemented effective 2020. Presently, still using Euro 5 in China. Hence I quoted Euro 5 only.

Posted by 5354 > Feb 3, 2018 02:39 AM | Report Abuse

Why MD resign? 2017 QR cannot repeat in 2018? If he become MD in other companies sure a wanted man.

Comments
Only white can run Hengyuan well ? Are PetrolChina and Sinopec run by white ?
Do not know whether China man can upgrade Euro 3 to Euro 4 or not ?
Please do not underestimate China man now. Please note that China is using Euro 5, not Euro 4 lah.

Shandong Hengyuan is 5th largest crude oil importer in China. Hengyuan is using Euro 5 in China.
Please do not continue to talk bad about Hengyuan because it is China man's stock.

Do you know China is the richest country in this planet. Has highest foreign reserve in this world.

I hope China investment funds do not disappoint the share price of Hengyuan in 2018.

We, a group of followers of OTB are very faithful to OTB because OTB had helped us to make a lot of money in KLSE. OTB made everyone of us a millionaire.

We are full time investors, with good guidance from OTB, we made so much money until we do not believe.

We had lunch together very frequent, we knew the relationship between uncle Koon and OTB.

We trust OTB did not tell any lie to us. He is always very frank to us. He apologized to us when he made mistake.

He is an honest champ, why want to tell lies to bad mouth him.

Anything uncle Koon did has nothing to do with OTB.

We just follow OTB only. We still buy Masteel even uncle Koon condemn it.

There is no partnership at all times.

OTB recommended stocks base on TA and FA, uncle Koon is his customer only.

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Posted by 秦梦瑶 > Feb 2, 2018 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

先定一个能达到的小目标，比方说19.88

China stock already has very bad reputation in KLSE, Hengyuan is supposed to be considered as blue chip to be.
I think all investors have lost confidence on China stock.

The profit of Hengyuan should be no 1 in KLSE, the share price does not reflect its true value.
Moreover, there is no support on share price of Hengyuan from Chinese fund.
The price can drop from 19.20 to 11.32 within a few days.
A big joke in town.

PetrolChina and Sinopec can trade at a PER > 100, PER of Hengyuan is < 5 also cannot support.

To China fund, I believe you can support share price of Hengyuan easily.
Please show us, not talking only.
Please do not disgrace the great China government who is the richest in this world now.

Can you make Hengyuan same as PetrolChina and Sinopec ?

秦梦瑶 ??? !!! Please do not just sweet talk only, beautiful autie of China.

Jelas Ulung,
I have high respect on you because you talk with sense.
I think you will do well in your investment.
Do what you think best for yourself.
I just add my opinion that theoretically the price should not drop below 10.80 unless Q4 2017 is not good.
Wish you good luck.

Posted by traderman > Jan 31, 2018 02:30 PM | Report Abuse

hy fully value lar

Show me your facts rather than a sweeping statement.

There is no publicity on Hengyuan new management, many analysts want to visit them, they refused to meet all analysts.

They had realized it now, I understand that the new management will call all analysts for a beefing when Q4 2017 result is out.

The wrong perception will be changed after Q4 2017 result is out.
Hope it will help the share price of Hengyuan to reflect its true value.

Base on many sifu projected earning of Hengyuan in 2018 to be around 2.50, at present price of 12.90, PER is 5.16.

Then compare Hengyuan with keppel refinery spore. Keppel P/E ratio is 15.

The fair price of Hengyuan should be 37.50.

If earning is 2.00 for 2018,
The fair price of Hengyuan should be 30.00.

No matter how you count, the price of Hengyuan is always undervalued because it is a China stock.

Agreed with you.
Tung.