To serious investors in GTronic :
Honesty, I have faith on the earning prospect of GTronic else I will not put in significant money into it. However I always like to challenge back my own believe/action to avoid mistake. In regard to this, I have some concerns here. Have the earning prospect from the so called new products been well proven? Where is the solid track record? How likely the good news such as new orders on its new products, qualification by new customer etc will materialize? And by how much if converting to bottom line?

I do not mean that now I lost faith on GTronic, just want to share with you my thinking process in investing.
Thks

Hi long term investor in GTronic : pls have a read on this article. Storytelling in Investment-The Three Steps to Tell a Good Story and to Earn Fast Money -Xaivier Chia
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36525.jsp

再益：若非華人經濟貢獻‧大馬可能破產
2013-09-08 09:56
（雪蘭莪‧八打靈再也7日訊）首相署前部長拿督再益依布拉欣表示，若非華人的經濟貢獻，我國雖位居東南亞第三大經濟體，很可能會破產。
他昨日在本身的推特上留言說，即便我國華人所繳交的稅額減半，也可能使國家的經濟陷入動盪。
“我可以接受華人做為二等公民，但他們不該繳這麼多的稅。也許只繳馬來人的一半，儘管這已足夠讓國家破產。”
（星洲日報）

I like "Pig can fly" too. In this forum, I see many choose to believe pig can fly and 敢死队. I broke out in cold sweat for their hard earn money.

I like the analogy very much. In Bursa, the dreamed girl will be put out for cheap sale once every few years. As long as we are patient, we still can get our dreamed girl but certainly this depends on luck too. If we are inpatient and marry to a less admired girl, when the most dreamed girl is available to us, we are not available (no bullet) to marry her anymore. Certainly by then the dreamed girl will no longer 18 year old anymore, but maybe a 35 year old divorcee. It does not matter much; the important thing is that she is still our dreamed girl with the same or even higher intrinsic values.
Thks

He/she has a very strong self-belief/opinion. I guess he/she is working in technical related line.

I like your formulas. Pls allow me to add 2.
Wrong stock+good timing=possible winning formula
Wrong stock+wrong timing=HOLLAND FORMULA.

Hi KC Chong : thank you very much, you are too kind to me. I just cannot imagine what this web will be if you and KW Tan are not here.

I am trying to conribute too but always feel my knowledge and experience are so limited and shallow.
Thank you

SANG-JERA: you are really a great investor of Pantech who follow up very closely and know many things of the company. Great job. I will let you know when I successfully join the family of Pantech. It takes time and depends on fate chemistry as I am a very slow investor. Thks.

Hi Micheal 大佬: may I ask you a personal question ? How do you pass your retired life besides playing shares? I would like to learn how to pass retired life ? Thank you.

If Maybank can drops to RM2.90 in 1998, there is not reason for KFima not to drop to RM1.23. Anything is possible in this world. But pls be realistic when putting up a case. How likely the current market will crash till KFima to RM1.23 ? I also can simply say Public Bank will drop to RM6, why not ? In fact my Public Bank was bought at RM6 many years ago.

Rubberex is not in the same league. It is in thick Industrial Gloves business whereas the rest as named by you are in exam gloves business. Nevertheless, Rubberex acquired one of the smaller exam gloves manufacturers, Alliance Gloves Sdn Bhd, for RM113million in July2013.

"TP RM1.23我爱你......":
好心, 别危言耸听啦. If KFima drops to RM1.23, half of the people here will cry and disappear from forum. We will be lonely then.
"...我爱你" : I doubt you will buy then. Honestly, I will definitely not as I will have many other better options then if I still have money to do so. Instead of buying, I afraid I am busy leaking my wound.

Micheal 大佬: NO OFFENCE, but pls reconsider your frequent in/out and consistent small win strategies. Before earning RM3K/month, your risk of losing is very much higher than that. Investing is like doing a business, there is certainly no short cut. If there is people told you that they can make it or you actually achieved it, it is because of the current Bull market and luck. In long run, frequent in/out players are most probably losers. Else why there is a long lasting saying that” 7/10 punters are losers, 2/10 merely breakeven and only 1 is a winner”.

"To win, first you must not lose" is definitely NOT equal to your consistent small gain.

Pls forgive me if my words are harsh, I force myself to write so as I am sensitive to the word “pensioner”. Sorry.

Good luck.

Micheal : Thanks for your good words.

KC Chong : thank you very much for your sharing. I appreciate that.

Bull is not a friend to Value Investor.

I believe Value is determined by many fundamental factors and Price is the most critical one.
If there is no Bull or Bear markets, a share price of a good company will likely grows according to its biz performance in long run. Its range of PE is depended on many biz factors and it has been established by itself after a long time in the market. Example, Zhulian has been traded between 7-9X for a long time. The range of PE can be changed if there is a quantum leap in its earning power, size of biz, reputation etc. For the time being, I do not see any big change on Zhulian, therefore it should be traded in the same range. But a Bull which is a collective of emotion rather than fundamental element has changed the norm by bringing its PE out of its historical range. This equals to an evil temptation to the dormant value investor like me to sell. Therefore I said Bull is not a friend to Value Investor.

Example: the intrinsic value of a car is its quality, performance, fuel consumption, spec, reliability etc. In Malaysia Atis 1.8E is selling for RM110K. In my way of valuation as a buyer, RM110K is a fair value, RM100K is a high value and RM120K is a low value. The car is still the same; the selling price determines its value.


If comparing to Civic 1.8 with about same intrinsic value(assume) but selling at RM90K(assume), then Civic is high value at RM90K and Toyota is low value even at RM100K. Again, intrinsic values are same but price determines the final value.

Hi KC Chong: Thank you very much for your valuable comment. Let me feedback further on part of the comment. I was describing a concept that Bull is not friend of Value Investor like me.

My way of valuation on Zhulian : bright biz prospect, low PE, reasonably good growth rate, high margin, high PAT, high div, high cash, good management etc. Thus I conclude it is a value stock, buy and hold.
My intention is to join the biz to grow my wealth thru capital appreciation as well as consistent dividend for long term as long as the fundamentals are intact. Thus I follow up the biz very closely.

What I want to say here is that if there is no Bull, the valuation(PE) of Zhulian will not be 10X with reference to its historical trend, thus I would never been tempted to sell. Because the Bull brought it significantly higher than the normal trading range, it is a temptation to sell.
**********************************************************

Hi KCChong : may I ask you a question? Why you do not use PE in evaluating a stock ? A great stock but with high selling price = High Value ? Example Zhulian at PE 8x is high value to me but PE15x is no value.

Thank you very much in advance.

BULL is not friend of Value Investor:
The generally perceived Bull will seduce value investor to sell a good company as the Bull jumps circuit the normal price growth trajectory by pushing good company to historical height out of sudden which value investor expect it to be only few years later. With that high price, some value investors like the stupid me were tempted to sell and smartly thought to buy back in the next Bear. As Bull is relative and progressive, it somehow lasts longer than expected and the good company justifies its new high price itself along the time through the natural growth. Consequently, the value investor misses the boat to buy back.
Example I bought Zhulian at PE 7x and sold out at PE 10 x which was at its historical high then. The return was very commendable and I thought I were smart. However the share price breaks one height to another height with its PE >10X now. My regret is eating my heart. Thus I conclude, Bull is not my friend as if not because of the evil Bull, Zhulian is still my darling with slow and steady growth.

I like Tan Chong when I bought Grand Livina in 2008, the 1st unit in my town. Getting hint from the very long buying Q on G.Livina, I bought and sold TChong share for some profit as an indirect discount to the car price. After that I deleted TChong from watch list as I discomfort with its low net margin even though I like its healthy growth and venture into Cambodia and Vietnam. What is your comment on this?

ktsk88 : One more point which I want to talk about is to switch mother shares to Wa as the less than 1% div yield is negligible (RM80/year, not even enough for 2 tickets for Resort Theme Park). Still invested on Genting but thru Wa, leveraging lah. Do you have the same thought? Let you to write, OK?

ktsk88 : I fully agreed with your view. In fact I am in half way writing about the same comment as yours. The many negative comments on the div-WA few days ago earlier prompted me to write so, but as you have written, I thank you first. Good job and thks again.

大佬,TP=RM1.23,你要人家跳楼味?

As I have had Genting on hand and it is too stingy in DPO, I am not in hurry to buy in more. But I am waiting for it to drop below 9 to grape in more. I doubt if it will go below 9.00 at this time. It may if there are Syria attack and QE tapering. By then, the market is likely to have significant adjustment and panic, do you dare to buy then? I definitely will, as I want the 50sen div and Wa.

If want to make money, buy Good counter at low price. Taiwan’s God of Investment said there is no Value Investment but Price Investment”. 台灣股神胡立陽主張沒有價值投資, 只有價格投資. I believe him especially at the current high market, do you ?
p.s. : I do not have “fate chemistry” with AEON even though I have been follow up this counter for many years.

Hi : in fact, about a month ago I thought my teen that he need to develop a healthy core value inside the heart. The core value will act as a compass guiding him along life journey as parents cannot help him forever and he also will not want to ask for advice on everything. I reminded him that healthy values are those which I shared with him all along such as frugal in spending, think about the poor before simply spending, respecting others, be kind hearted, avoid bad habits and bla bla bla…… Thanks god, looks like he understood and accepted.

Frankly speaking, I do not want my kids to do as what he did neither what the seniors did. I just want my kids to enjoy their school time while studying hard enough to place them above average. But if they are interested to study hard to place themselves at the peak, I will not object either.

My sharing:
Time has changed. The young kids are now growing in a much more affluence environment. I do not use my old yardstick to judge them. Furthermore do I provide them the same tough macro environment as mine i.e. walk alone for long distance to school, wash own school shoes, helping parent in agriculture works, insufficient or no pocket money, no toys, no electronic gadgets etc ? I doesn’t, do you? I knew from very beginning that I had not been educating them directly or indirectly in an “old poor ways”, so I do not expect them to behave as I am, the old fashion guy. Nevertheless I am still trying my best in teaching and visualizing them the right values and frugal attitude. I believe they will be influenced by the good teaching by parents and will finally shaping up their own values according to their era.
Thks.

Darryl: young but with RIGHT investment attitude, I see you as a winner in the long haul in Bursa. Good job and keep up !

Mah Sing's chief named 2013 Entrepreneur of the Year.( http://www.thesundaily.my/news/822157 )
This is another testimony to his great leadership in sailing Mahsing to the current height and I believe will be to another height year after year. My confidence level on Mahsing has been risen for quarter notch.

Corporate Princess 6 : Mah Sing's Jane Leong :
I read this article as a plus point to Mahsing as the daughter is a value added to the business sustainability and growth. Now my assessment on Mahsing is half notch higher. Cheers !

Put other things aside, if you believe Mr Koon Yew Yin, this is a friendly reminder that it is now a good time to buy JTiasa. Personally, I would NOT buy as I am stuck with this stock for long time already. It is one of the stock serving long term jail. Good Luck.

I am waiting it to drop below RM9 to buy another 1000 shares.

Tenure is 5 years. For me, the longer is better. Thks

Hi, I have a different opinion here. I see the offer of WA-option is something great which gives me an opportunity to earn slightly more than a mere cash div. It also offers me a cheaper and more attractive ways to invest in Genting. I will write more when I have more time in the upcoming weekend, if I still remember. Thanks.

KC Chong : Only your post attracts many quality comments. This must be attributed by your generosity, openness and professionalism. Good on you. Keep up the great job. I follow most of your posts. TQ

Thank you for the healthy discussion. I am now busy with office work and have no time to write more. I give more vote to ipomember. TQ

Very interesting question. I am very keen to hear comment too.

Very healthy discussion. I support both sides especially ipomember.

When I were younger, many elders gave an advice not to limit oneself into one perspective even though it was then a highly believed truth or principle as truth and principle changes along with time. Now I realize that was a priceless advice. Take one backward step to see thing from another angle.

Just my 2 cents opinion. Thank you.

I do not see the Q2’s result as good.

The report on CIMB by SinChew, 27/8/13I do not see the Q2’s result as good.

The report on CIMB by SinChew, 27/8/13(http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/81040?tid=18)is pretty good. I kind of agreed with the unfavorable outlook of CIMB especially its biz in Indonesia. My another concern is the Nazib’s UMNO presidential election at the end of the year, albeit it is very unlikely to lost, but who knows. I cut some points from CIMB but will still hold it for long term.

Skyu : thks for highlighting the many special div and Wa by GenT for the 10 yrs. The 1st thing I want to do tmr morning, is to call up my broker, asking why till today I have never received any special div and WA since my investment on Gent in Mar 2007. I may have been cheated all along. TQ

Why GenM does not follow suit so that while the company can retain big portion of the cash, the long term royal small shareholders like me will be happy. He ! he !.

U can checked in Bursa. Gent proposes a special div RM0.50 with 25% tax. 1 WA for every 4 mother shares, subscription price is RM1.50 and exercise price is RM7.96. Expected timeframe to complete the exercise is in Q4 13. Very interesting to learn that the well knew stingy LKT can announce this kind of good deal. Ha ! ha ! I take it as durian jatuh happily.

Press cutting from The Star http://www.thestar.com.my/story.aspx?sec=business&file=%2f2012%2f12%2f15%2fbusiness%2f12392009

Hi : As LED biz contributes 25-35% of its revenue, I have same concern on LED as Cheeseburger and Fatinvest. The below press cutting from The Star is part of my database which mentioned “HIGH VALUE LED”/“INNOVATIVE US LED technology”/ “UNIQUE TECHNOLOGY".........I do not know if these can differentiate itself from other LED mfger especially those mass producers from China. Hopefully there are some experts in LED industry can shed light on this.

Except LED, I am quite comfortable with another 2 main revenue contributors i.e. sensor and timing device, which make up about 50% of its revenue.


Source: The Star (Dec 15, 2012)
Globetronics' success can be attributed to the execution of business strategies which led to the launch of "HIGH-VALUE" light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and quartz-based timing devices widely used in the growing illumination, smart phone, and tablet sectors.
The engines of growth are the group's high-brightness (HB) LED modules, quartz-based timing devices, and sensor chips.

For the LED business, which contributes 35% of the group's revenue, Heng says Globetronics is now using “INNOVATIVE US LED technology” to produce HB LED modules with single bin or single group of white light that could be fully utilised in the general lighting market.

"This is a “UNIQUE TECHNOLOGY” that converts violet light to a single bin of white light.

"The conventional approach produces white light for LED modules from the conversion of blue light, which ends up producing different bins of white light that may have limited usage or not acceptable for the general lighting industry.

"Together with our “US PARTNER”, we are confident of performing well in the US general lighting market, which has an estimated value of about US$4bil this year."

Heng adds that Globetronics is also working with a multi-national corporation to produce multi-colour programmable LEDs for the stage and display lighting markets in Europe .

Mr TonyLim : Thank you for your comment. Sorry to say that I have no “fate chemistry” (缘分) with Maxis. I never pay attention to it after the unlisting and listing back exercise. Furthermore I like Digi more than Maxis for few reasons. Just list a few here, most of the people I know are using Digi, Digi is more creative in new products, Digi is managed by Mat Salleh ….. By the way , I have no “fate chemistry“ with Digi too even though it is at top of my watch list.

Cheeseburger, Lching and Tonylim : thank you very much for flashing my mind with the word “DEFENSIVE”. I will seriously ponder long and deeply on it.

Let’s talk more in next weekend. It is something to do with high dividend + growth in the hope to win back my lost in the past years.
Good luck.

Hi lching: thank you very much for your advice, I take it. I am diversified into few high div counters such as Zhulian, CIMB and LPI.
I agree with you that GTronic is not that defensive and there are some technology risks as well. That was why I did not buy enough in Mar-May13. As at today’s business performance and development, my confidence on GTronic is for 3 years only. I will follow up very closely to safeguard my hard earned money.
Thank you very much.

Hi Cheeseburger : I share your view on semicon industry. Look at what happens to Nokia, AKN, MPI, Unisem etc, it may happen to GTronic as well. It was the same concern, I did not buy enough GTronic during Mar-May 13. My motive in this posting is to sell a concept that a good high dividend counter can deliver passive income which can be higher yield than a shop but without headache in collecting rental each month, not to mention the liquidity and low barrier on capital.

For the foreseeable 3 years, GTronic is meeting my criteria, thus I will buy more in Bear Market.

“business go up and down, the dividend is not guarantee”: GTronic has >50% policy on DPO. Important thing is that the earning is sustainable.

Downsides of a shop : tenant can owe you rentals and run away, the shop can be idle for few months too as no tenant, rental can drop too, worst still if there are major unfavorable fatal changes such as a new fly-over at front of your shop, nearby mall ran down etc.

Anyway, thank you very much for your comments.

夜月: very good sharing. Thank you.
May I share my experience ?
"Proton is cheaper but Toyota is not too expensive either. Proton can get you a car easier, but as long as you can save and wait a bit longer, you can afford Toyota. Toyota may break down on your journey but Proto will definitely breakdown much more frequent than Toyota. So new and young friends in Bursa, for the beginning, please avoid small and cheap counters, just focus on blue chips and buy only during the BEAR market, else just buy unit trusts from Public Mutual (I am not an agent), you will appreciate me many years later. Trust me, if you invest in a right way, you will have wonderful reward and if you follow the hot counters, you will be in Holland one day. These are words from my heart and blood after losing few barrels of gold to Bursa." Thank you.