No Action is Action
LPI is one of the few counters which I seldom check the closing price daily due to its nature i.e. healthy, reliable, slow and steady, passive, consistent and high dividend. I do not bother much if it goes up or down as on one hand I will sell only if it ups to crazy level which this healthy counter will never be so. On the other hand, I will buy more if the price drops to low level which this counter will not be so in the current bull or during the ordinary market. Buying opportunity will appear only in Big Bear market which I do not when it is. So, no action is the action.

My only concern on LPI is the health of Mr. Teh Hong Pew. As long as Mr Teh is there or pass the reign over to somebody in the same league, my investment in LPI is the education fund for one of my son who will need the money only 8 years later.

Based on my own experience, many counters heavily discussed in this forum are “Rxxxish or half Rxxxish” during big Bear market. During the big Bear, there is hardly people talk about them just like the useless stuff deep inside the store room. It is undeniable that you may make some fast money playing those second or third league counters in the current hot bull markets if you are lucky, but as a bread earner of our beloved home, shouldn’t we value our hard earned money more and invest in those more established and reliable counters? With this, we at least can still see our capital there while receiving some dividend as consolation money during the Bear market.

Is this forum for hooray! hooray? Are we too optimistic now? I wish some experienced investors can kindly drop few warnings periodically.

Perplexed, why good article cannot not attract any comment ? What does this implies ?

投资市场就好像赌场的缩影，是个违反人类逻辑的地方。几乎每个走进的人都抱持著我要赢钱的心态，都想着自己可以从投资市场获利，然后某天可以达到财富自由。

(别发梦啦, 财富自由不是通过投资市场而已可达到的. 正业为主, 投资为辅呀)

投资要瞻前也要顾后.

My Return so far in Bursa :
A rough estimation shows that 80% of the time I have a negative paper return in Bursa. Even I finally enjoy a positive paper return at the current long lasting Bull, it is still at a shamefully lower than saving interest from bank. It is undeniable that my big losses at the early years pull down the overall return. Nevertheless it is very lucky to recover at the latest few years after switching most of the holding to more established counters such as CIMB, Mbb, LPI, Mahsing, Genting, Zhulian. I believe some other investors going thru the similar path as mine, playing lots of second and third liners with exciting illusion especially during the bull market. And the cruel fact is that the hardly earned tiny profit was swiped away a long with a big cut on the self capital by the unexpected Bear at anytime.

So, my advice is that please strip off any illusion that share market can make your rich or give you easy money. I know that most of the people will not sense and agree with this point at the current Bull market, but please be reminded that Bear can be there at anytime without any notice. Never and never and never think that you are smart in calculating the value, forecasting or interpreting trend, there is hardly anybody can beat the broad market when the bloody Bear massacres.

In fact I am psychologically ready at any times to loss 30% from the current holding. On the bright side (or maybe an illusion again), I am “hoping” to earn 5% annual return since inception on the entire portfolio from the current Bull (if only god bless). However I have confident that I will have 10% annual return in the next Bull which maybe 5-10 years later.

Thank you

Technique of Public Speak
To share with those working in corporate circle:
Pls watch the opening of this video and learn how the host spoke, attracted and engaged the audient. He was very smart in linking the message with relevant and lively example. If you can apply some of it, you will enjoy your public speaking in the corporate world. Your price tag will be higher.

Competiveness of the country:
Just see how people advances and applies new technology in their TV show. I saw that kind of digital simulated model in movie i.e. Avata, whereas Chinese applies it in their real life. This is another example that we Malaysian is far behind others in the world except corruption and barbarian mindset which attract headlines of local papers lately.

Your two words "working" and "play" attract my attetion. The below are my 2 cents for your consideration.

Please do not "play" stock else you will be played by stocks.
Old adage says, 7/10 players end up in Holland, 2 break even and only one is a winner and that one is definitely not you and me.

As you are new to Bursa, please play safe via fundamental. It is slow but steady and safer albeit you may lose money too. You can follow KC Chong's postings and Ren Yan to start with.

Even old horse played by AT, you as a rookie should not in the thread of AT.

Today or even this year is not a good time for rookie to enter Bursa. If really need to, please just dabble lightly.

If you really want to come in now and do not want to lose big money at the current high mkt valuation, please just focus on few super blue chips i.e. Maybank, LPI, PBB, CIMB etc as a start. Only after few years of experience or at least going thru one round of Bear market, then only talk about TA if you are still keen on it then.

Good luck.

Thank you for your comment and info. The nice picture softens the hard topic, hope to see the nice picture popping up more frequent.

FYI. I do not how true is it. Good luck.

“Posted by nanoman > May 29, 2013 07:54 AM | Report Abuse
i read from FocusM last week,the CEO resigned without any reason....most likely the other board members going to face the same fate...something related investigation for accounting fraud by major shareholders.... just stay away from the time being.... “

neohts: you are the good keeper of this thread. Thanks for your great contribution. Good luck.

Hi KC Chong:
1) Have you read this book or the above introduction? I am very curious to peek into your thought on Value Investor vs. Growth Investor as shown on Figures 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4.

2) I like Figure 4.2, the basket of “too tough to understand”, that may explain why I do not have any oil-gas related counters even though they are the hottest in Bursa most of the time. However, even though I agree with the classification of Tech in that basket, I still took risk on GTronic(lucky) and Notion(in jail). After today, I will try to avoid Tech.

3) I like the quote “After all, you can’t teach old dogs(myself) and stubborn dogs(those like to critic without base) new tricks, heh!”.

Without your postings, i3 is much less interesting, to me, at least.

Thanks and missing your postings.

Latest report : possible re-rating. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/38157.jsp

Hi : I do not know PM corp, thus do not have comment on its biz. However I took hint from the thread and bought TUDOR Chocolate from Cosway last night. It tasted delicious; if not better at least it is equivalent to those from Van-houten. Thanks for the recommendation. Good luck.

I bought a significant amount at RM2.80 after RI prior bonus on 24Jun13. Relatively to this batch, 2.40 is nothing. Sorry to say that I do not want MSing to go too high else I will fall into dilemma again if to sell or hold just like Zhulian and GTronic

Hi : I have quite a lengthy discussion with KCChong on Mahsing last weekend. I try to summarize the discussion into few points:
i) Mahsing is a good company with very aggressive, amazing and consistent growth be it on revenue or net income.
ii) Not bad and improving operation efficiency
iii) PE and EV indicates it is inexpensive
iv) Negative cash flow
Conclusion : Mahsing is a good company but with negative cash flow which does not meet KC’s first and most important criteria in counter selection.

He said he liked other counters with positive cash flow, this has nothing to do with Right or Wrong.

Please be fair to KC.

I also do not think share price of Mahsing at 2.40 is great.
Thks

"BUY LAND AGAIN??? OMG!! "

I like this one very much which equals to aggressive growth on biz, and consequently aggressive return on share price. Key condition is that no major recession in the next few years. Else the company may face a very stiff challenge on cash flow which may drown the company at once. Thks

We will miss you, Fortunebull. Pls join us back when you think the time right.

Or I should say that I would be very very SAD as I trust and love MSing so much, why the movement of its share price is determined by "reliable source". Sigh !!!

But I srongly believe the RM2.35@2Oct13 was a wild guess only and there is no real "reliable source".

Thks, If Mr Leong has any connection to this “reliable source”, I would better sell off MSing and look for other property counter. Today the “reliable source” can make it up; they can make it down at anytime till we, as small retail investors, reach Holland. That is why I ask for the guess for today and for tomorrow if the today’s guess strikes again. After 3 consecutive spotted on guess, I want to run away from Msing. Good luck.

Semicon will come back strong ? I hope so. I have significant amount of $ struck in Notion for years. Do you have Notion in your portfolio?

Hi : MAS gave me very bad impression along my years in Bursa. Even if MAS is the only one counter left in Bursa, I will not buy too.

I do not study airline industry due to its cut throat competition, but if I need to pick one among those related to airline industry, I will buy either TuneInsure or AirAsia.

Good luck.

Hi Bone: Your yesterday's guess at RM2.35@2Oct13 was spotted on. How did you know that? Hokkien said: Hau Xiao A. How can you know ahead the movement of the price.
What is your guess for tomorrow, 3Oct13 ? Just for fun. Thks.

Limputong : wow! are you sure you keep RM300K(150xRM2K) value of GTronic ? I thought as a retail investor, I have had very high holding on a particular stock. Now, with your RM300K/counter, I am behind.

Do you consider diversification? Or you like strategy as W.Buffer's concentration on few great counters?

If you do not mind, were you borned in 1988?

Good luck.

Rubbish and Pariah
Hi KC Chong : This afternoon, I went to a very good restaurant for a high value food. We use parking coupon in our town. After scratching and placing the coupon on dashboard, I stepped out from the car. Wah! out of sudden there was a gangster asking for parking money. In order to avoid trouble I gave him RM0.50, maybe it was too penny to him, he used dirty language. I was upset and almost want to fight back, but at the end I did not. Because I thought if I fought back, then I lower down myself to his rubbish pariah level. So I decided to forgo the value lunch and drove away. Did you faced with this kind of unpleasant experience too ?

I have MSing and Huayang only.

newbiestockreturns : relay to your story on a hot sexy girl above, 1.37pm, 2 Oct13.

I am a seasoned guy having many average girls as girl friend before and even having some on hand now, thus I am now not interested to court for another average girl. That is why I willingly try my very best to court for the hot sexy girl who seldom appears in the party. Even though at the end I go home with empty hand, at least I enjoy the process and that moment.

Since courting a hot sexy girl is a challenge and big fun, I share with members that she is hot and sexy and welcome them to join the game if they want to. But if they disagree and see that hot sexy girl as a Pig, it s fine too, there is no force and no harm, and they have full freedom to court for average girls and whoever.
Do you agree?

KC: thousands sorry for pulling in so much of negative elements. Sorry.

Hi KC: I love my wife very much but I knew she is imperfect i.e. she is not a daughter of a rich man(ha! ha!). I would like to hear from you any negative elements(or potential negative) of KFima. I think this is very helpful to educate members to assess a company from both +ve and -ve sides.
Thks.

Iwalk: fully agreed. In fact I see both as Lin Dan and Lee CW.

newbiestockreturns: pls elaborate and provide rational. Do not simply throw in a bomb. Thks.

Hi Gark: sorry to disagree with u. For me, the main and brightest growth prospect of KFima relies on plantation. If stripping off the plantation and security biz, what are left in KFima? Bulking, food industries ? With the small scale, old technology, limited know how as KFima, how to compete in the open markets?

What do you think? Thks.

Hi: I have another probable negative element on KFima for your comment. It is the non core competency on its biz. Nowadays the globalization turns biz world to very competitive. Only those with competitive edge can last long and win but not dick, tom and Harry. So what is KFima's competitive edge ? Plantation? Nope. Food industry? Nope. Bulking? Nope. Security printing? Yes in M'sia due to its special connection to the government. But how far can this biz grows?

What do you think?

Thks.

Hi KC: I knew your intrinsic value on KFima, no question on it. However I would very much appreciate to hear your risk assessment on KFima. Thks.

KC Chong : Since KFima meets most of the financial criteria as a great company, why its share price is still so dull in the current hot market? I believe most of the members of KFima is keen to know about this. In your opinion, what are the probable negative factors pulling the leg of KFima?

I throw my 2 cents first to exchange for your precious opinions :

i) 30+% of its rev is from palm oil. CPO has been on its low cycle for year, this depresses the short term growth of the company.

ii) Small market capitalization at ~RM540mil does not attract attention or buying interest of big fund managers.

iii) Unattractive earning for the last 2 quarters, at 5.5sen and 5.4sen. If the earning trend rolls over to the next few qtrs, the annual eps will be 22sens. Normally market does not accord high PE for an ordinary small cap company especially those in not exciting industry.

Unless CPO rebounds significantly or merger exercise is looming, else KFima is now traded at its market value.

Thks

1st Oct 2013, after AGM, 梁海金信心满满表示:“明年，我们放眼20%销售增长，达到36亿令吉目标。”.

Friends : what does this great news implies ? As far as I can realize, he delivered all his words.

In fact, I hope MSing proposes another round of Right Issue to get free fund from shareholders instead of loan from bank with interest. The previous Right came with a significant discount to mkt price. Besides the discount on subscription price, the Right entitles minimum 40% DPO too. The previous Right in Mar 2013 enjoys 5.4% yield, not to include the free warrant.

If u just look at the share price only, it is undeniable lousy, but if factor in the indirect benefit, it is pretty attractive. Agree?

Good Luck.

Mah Sing acquires land in JB
Published: 2013/10/01
Mah Sing Group Bhd acquired 31 pieces of adjoining freehold land with net land area measuring 1,351.84 acres in Johor Baru for RM429.86 million or RM7.30 per sq ft.

Mah Sing said its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sanjung Tropika Development Sdn Bhd, has signed a conditional sales and purchase agreement with Bistari Land Sdn Bhd for the proposed acquisition.

The propperty developer said it intends to fund the proposed acquisition through a combination of internally generated funds, rights issue with warrants and/or bank borrowings.

It had raised RM397.74 million through a rights issue with warrants, which was completed on March 22, 2013.

"In this respect, an amount of not less than 20 per cent of the purchase price, equivalent to RM86.0 million, is expected to be funded by the rights issue proceeds and internally generated funds," said Mah Sing in a filing to Bursa Malaysia today.

The remaining balance of up to 80 per cent of the purchase price, equivalent to RM343.9 million, is expected to be funded by external bank borrowings.

Meanwhile, Mah Sing said the development cost of the lands would be funded through internally generated funds and bank borrowings, which will be decided at a later stage.

"The group believes the latest acquisition of land will see it benefit from the vibrant growth in Iskandar Malaysia and the strong demand for strategically located quality properties," it said.

Mah Sing's shares resumed trading from 3.58pm today after being halted for an hour.-- Bernama
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20131001163809/Article/index_html#ixzz2gTX3GLJo

Are u sure Robin Hood ? I afraid it is the reverse :....acting like Hood Robin, took from middle class and companies and give to the UMMO rich.

Fatinvest : Wow! 九阳真经加九阴真经, 其不是天下无敌.
I appreciate your recommendation, really. Thks.

风云漫画聂风入魔成道
The method to achieve 6-15% is very simple in theory. What you need to do is just buy the super safe Maybank periodically whenever got extra money. Do not need to time the market, just buy. Historically Maybank gives average 5-6% dividend yield each year. Its earning grows easily average 8-10% each year. In theory the share price movement is eventually correlated to its earning, which means share price of Maybank will increases average 8-10% each year too in long term. Adding up the 5-6% div and the 8-10% capital appreciation, the total return is 13-16%. Very easy and simple, isn’t it? If you want to play even safer, just widen the portfolio to include few more super safe counters such as PBB, CIMB. The grand average return is easily 6-15% each year in long run.

Then why only few people can achieve it?

In my opinion all things boil down to devil of Bursa. Once you involve in Bursa, be it the above mentioned safe investor or ordinary player, you will start to read and understand Bursa as your money is down there. As Bursa is a big devil, once you touch it, only very few can resist to its temptation. The above mentioned safe investor will start to feel bore and be tempted to try with faster and more exciting counters and method. Then the consequence is like you and me, suffering in –ve territory, say goodbye to the original 6-15%. It is similar to 聂风, we need to delve into Bursa(入魔) then only will buy shares. Once we dance with devil(Bursa), most of the people will be defeated far before able to reach Maybank(the above said safe method).

So, 6-15% return per year appears only in theory to most of the ordinary people like you and me. There are only few 聂风可入魔成道后又成神话.

What do you think ?

I am fan of Feng Yin ManHua风云漫画 since it was launched 20-30 years ago. In the early episode, Feng need to indulge himself into devil to become formidable 入魔成道.

FYI, till today I am still reading it.

To all: pls do not get confused by our discussion. All in all, Mahsing is still a great company in most of the aspects, just imperfect with negative cash flow. I believe there are many companies with negative cash flow in Bursa which can last long and grow successfully. Pls do your own assessment; negative cash flow is not a forbidden factor in biz world but definitely need extra attention.

Most of the members do not understand and always complained about the dull price performance of Mahsing, maybe the negative cash flow is the reason behind.

Good luck.

Tonylim : I do not underatand "chk for Botox Therapies"?

Hi Stockwatch: Thank you very much for your kind comment. I do agree with you that Banking sector is much safer than others as they are tightly regulated by Bank Negara. Looking on its safety and reasonable dividend yield, banking sector makes up one of the key portion of my portfolio.
May you elaborate why you recommend rubber gloves. Post it under thread of Hartalega if you do not mind.
Namo Amitabha.

Jogging now at Pattaya Sexy beach again. Cannot wait to thank you
first, this time the thanks with scent of sexy ladies.

Hi KC Chong: Thank you very much. You were right-out spotted on. I am always looking for this kind of info for my investments, the potential risks of a biz. This is far more important than any potential profits. On Mahsing, I seldom or cannot find this kind of info in any analyst reports or newspapers. In fact I always have one big concern on Mahsing but have no mean to get the answer. The big concern is : “Mahsing built, newspapers reported great sale till have to buy by draw lot, BUT there must be some projects with some unsold units, where are they? How many are they? What are the stuck values? Where and how can I know this kind of info?”

To me the highest risk of a developer is after investing big $ in building but unsold. While you are stuck, loan interest is running. I read your message on”growth in receivables” as the unsold units but I am handicap to find/read this kind of info. Big shame and shit to myself. I will not let my kids to be as shit as their father; they have to learn finance at least one or two papers in university.

Increasing cost: On the other hand, I am OK with the increasing development cost seeing the increasing cost on raw mat, land and labor. As long as the net margin is still healthy, the increased cost has been off-set.

Interest payment: I guess Mahsing do serve interest as schedule for the active work only as I guess that interest can be not delayed and rolled over unless it is a default loan. I think it is a normal practice that Mahsing serves interest for loan portion of the in progress works but not the idle land for the subsequent phases. OR Mahsing do pay all interest as schedule but in the account, the paid interest for the future phases is not counted as cost of the current phase but rolling over till the future phase is launched.(Pls do not laugh at me, I admit that I am just simply shot by commonsense, sigh, why I wrote something no standard, malu lah).

Cash Flow: I opine that negative cash flow is a common nature of property developer as the free cash (assuming +ve margin and no unsold units) from the completed project was used to finance the subsequent projects. If there is one project only, there must be a free cash flow upon completion, assuming +ve margin and 100% sold out. I guess they do care about the cash flow but due to the nature of heavy spending for the subsequent projects, they have to live with it. What they can do is manage it properly for a balance point. This is very crucial but difficult and subjective. All risks are sitting on this. With the big size and fast growing rate as Mahsing, it is hard to manage with free cash.

Big borrowing: Leveraging on borrowing to earn more should be OK as long as the return is higher than cost of borrowing.

Serious recession hits : yes I have to agree this is Mahsing biggest challenge. Analyst said Mahsing has “manageable” debt level. I do not understand how to judge “manageable”. Due to my own deficiency, I have to take risk and accept what they said. I have to count on capability of Mr Leong in facing serious recession.

I always hesitate to talk about the above finance related topics as all I said is based on guessing only as I am an idiot when come to finance terms. If I have wrong understanding on the above, please enlighten me, I am eager to learn.

Thank you very much. I benefit a lot from your postings.

KC Chong : Thank you very much. I do not understand Pantech's biz, thus I do not have position on it. Since it is fully value now, I move it to the second list in my research work. Thanks a lot, this saves some time on research work.

Hi KC Chong : Thank you very much. I re-read your post on GTronic in other thread “Do you have any hidden gem for 2013?” on 24Aug13 before asking for your view again yesterday. Doing this was mainly for the benefit of others who may have missed your opinion in other thread.
In fact I have read your opinion on GTronic for not less than 10x already. Wah! the pay back is great as an opinion was read by one other for >10x.

Hi KC Chong : My current biggest holding is Mahsing. I have strong faith in it and am very conformable with its current trend and biz, not perplexed as in GTronic and Zhulian. Anyway as I have the largest $ in it, if you would mind, I would like to see your valuation on Mahsing. Pls post it under the thread of Mahsing if you wound mind.

I am trying to understand Pantech now, not sure if have had any post on it before.

I feel shame to ask for free. May god bless you. Namo Amithaba.

Thank you very much.

I have the same plan to buy more if the price goes lower than 2.00 after the Budget. But I am still pondering between the "Warren B-concentrating on good counter" or "diversification".

CURRENCY EXCHANGE AND SHARE PRICE:
Many people take “weakening ringgit” as one of the key factor in share assessment. I do not do so. I have a view that currency fluctuation is uncontrollable which should not be a factor to add value to a company. You enjoy the benefit from currency exchange today and may lose it as soon as next month.
Even RM depreciates 10% from 3.0 to 3.3, how much the bottom line of the biz will increase? Even the company does not purchase or spend any items in USD, the materials in RM will increase indirectly too as one way or another, the suppliers got some of their parts in USD due to globalization.
OK, even the bottom line increases by 10% due to the uncontrollable currency exchange, as a long term investor, I am not going to sell the biz(counter) with the 10 % increase in price. What does the 10% mean to a long term investor? 10% spreads over by 3 years is 3.3 %/year only. Your broker fee is almost 1.2 % already in one round of in and out. Fluctuation on share price due to market sentiment can easily be 10% too in a year or two.