Hi Funtrade : thank you for the link. http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908

KAHFIEHLAI : please go to Sin Chew on-line or just buy a hard print copy tomorrow for the original article. I am selective in extracting points. Sorry.

Momobear : "“QE若退場，必將造成全球股市大跌，美國股市也會很痛苦。
I am not sure."

I SAID I AM NOT SURE. Statement in Mandarin was from 台灣股神胡立陽. You can go to Sin Chew for the original article. I do not know how to link, if you know, please help to link

“只有不正常的人，才能賺錢，因為只有怪人才會買在低點。”
Agree. I opine that those who always say buy, buy, buy… lately, will not be a winner in the long run. I guess when Bear comes and even after Bear, half of them will not be here anymore. To become an odd people (contrarian) is not easy but talking is easy.

“先問便不便宜？如果你的答案是不便宜，那就別買。”
Honestly our answer is usually not cheap deep inside our heart but devil will convince ourselves that it is actually relatively still worth to buy and it will go higher as both of its price and value are on uptrend. With all kind of justifications, we jump in. If we are lucky, we make tiny profit, if unlucky, we lose big to Bear.

“QE若退場，必將造成全球股市大跌，美國股市也會很痛苦。
I am not sure. But I advise myself to take safer stand, do not pump in more money. Keep for future. Again 少赚不会死人.

"馬股畢竟已不是便宜區, 謹慎是上策。錢壓枕頭底, 下半年不投資."
Agree. Play safe. Earn less is much better than sorry. 少赚不会死.

“時機是等出來的，要有耐心，否則，你會壯志未酬先死！”
I talked about this many times but how persistently can I hold to this principle? I am just an ordinary human being with Gambling DNA inside; worst still is that I stay too close to big casino (Bursa). Maybe I should not buy to cost averaging down CIMB and Genting last week but instead keep my bullets for bigger Bear. Even the market rebounds soon, how much extra profit? RM500 from each? RM1000 cannot make me rich, it is not worst. Thus if the market rebounds, I will sell CIMB and Genting which I purchased last week to build up my war chest.

"任何投資，都要看大盤趨勢,低檔價格投資遠遠勝過你去分析會計原則，甚麼本益比、成長率，都是沒有意義的，尤其亞洲股市，因為變化太快，波動不靖。" : Agree! Look back to 2008/09, FA i.e. PE, growth rate, dividend yield etc had no effect on High Value stocks such as Zhulian, LPI, Maybank, PBB, Tanjong etc. All were traded at their low. When Big Bear sweeps, all fall like domino no matter how high value you are.

On-line : 星洲网 , 財經, 投資致富 25 Aug 2013

Strongly recommmend to read. 星洲网 , 財經, 投資致富 25 Aug2013.

Ha! Ha! “常成控股的威水史=Great record of JTiasa” was also time sending many into long term jail. Unfortunately I were one of them. A coin has two faces, when you are riding Bull, maybe Bear is just around the corner. Prior crossing a street, looks to right, to left and to right again yet accident happens. Friends: Please be extra careful in Bursa. Occasionally I went to prison visiting him. Hopefully he behaves himself and studies hard in prison and come out with PHD degree on palm oil industry. Cheers !

星洲（吉隆坡24日訊):普騰控股前董事經理拿督斯里賽再納阿比丁曾在日本旅居6個月，發現日本青年一畢業投入職場時，不是想著買車，反之是購買房產業及提昇個人投資能力，大馬青年應仿效。“新加坡、美國或日本人不會一直夢想擁有一輛汽車，反之他們在日常生活中乘搭地鐵等公共交通工具。大馬青年應作出這樣的改變。”
I echo the above statement.
Car ? Just buy a cheap second hand car will do.
Travel ? Just wait for few more years, the world is there for you forever.
Insurance? Buy minimum coverage as your risk of illness is relatively lower as you are still young.
Entertainment? Limit your $ and time on entertainment and spend more on learning investment.
Your limited income at the early working cycle should be primarily used to buy house, unit trust and maybe some blue chip. You will appreciate me 15-20 years later. I am talking to graduates who do not have Rich Papa/Mama and aim to become millionaire at 55 years old.
Thks

开玩 笑! 只要我姓马, 有何不可? 不爽, .....

Hi KC Chong : a very good morning to you. Thank you very much for confirming my right way of calculating PE. Now I am relief. You know, I were a science student during school time, no basic financial knowledge. I learnt investing technique from newspapers and internet, no guidance and therefore I am very prudent like walking on surface of a frozen lake in investment, more so after I lost my first few barrels of gold to Bursa. Thank you very much.

Hi Momobear : your quote :"Local fund is the net buying last Friday." Would you mind telling me where to get that info ?

To me, both sides have some worthwhile points and some unconvincing arguments too. But I still appreciate their contribution in awaking awareness. Thank you.

Good write-up, but I sense that you can go deeper. Anyway, thank you very much for the good write-up.

Hi KC Chong : How do you derive PE 17.6 ? Below listed are my calculations, hope you can kindly point out my error. I learnt EPS from internet by myself, no teacher, I may unawarely making mistake all the while.
1) EPS of the 1st half=8.86, if annualize this number, full yr eps=17.7, thus PE=15.12 @RM2.68.
2) EPS of the 2nd half of last yr=9.44, if eps is flat as of last yr, full yr eps =8.86+9.44=18.3sen, thus PE=14.6 @RM2.68.
Thank you

GTronic=莺莺美黛子:
Assuming growth trend of GTronic is sustainable albeit may tapering off slowly, the ideal target is to accumulate GTronic for at least 100,000 shares @ average RM2.1 with total cost RM210,000. Assuming the average absolute dividend paid out is similar to this year at 17sens, the return is RM17000/year=RM1417/month. Is it better than buying a shop with headache while collecting rental each month? Shop will appreciate and market capitalization of GTronic too. This is so call “PASSIVE INCOME” for old age or 莺莺美黛子.
What to do ?
I) Follow up the development of the company very closely
II) Wait patiently for BEAR and buy more till 100,000 shares.
III) As long as the fundamentals do not deteriorate, sit back, relax and enjoy one free Tablet each month.
The above is the beauty of Bursa.

My assessment on GTronic :
Layman’s method with calendar year instead of FY. Total div in 2013 is 17sen(5+1+2+5+4) =17sen/RM2.68=6.3%=2x FD rate. I assume the best eps is 20sen and accord it with PE 12X, the Fair Value until Feb14 is RM2.40. With that, if the current market drops further, I will accumulate GTronic by batch every 10% drops from the current 2.68. In my opinion even the very worst BEAR hits such as 2008, the lowest of GTronic is about RM1.80 as by then the yield is almost 10%. Condition is that the fundamental of the business, earning and DPO are still similar as current. If the eps stops growing, the story will fall into opposite side.
On the flip side, I forecast eps is to grow to 24sen and 29sen with FV RM2.90 and RM3.50 in 2014 and 2015 respectively with 20% grow rate each year. This is my sweet dream which keeps my enthusiasm in Bursa warm.
Thank you.

My assessment on GTronic :
Layman’s method with calendar year instead of FY. Total div in 2013 is 17sen(5+1+2+5+4) =17sen/RM2.68=6.3%=2x FD rate. I assume the best eps is 20sen and accord it with PE 12X, the Fair Value until Feb14 is RM2.40. With that, if the current market drops further, I will accumulate GTronic by batch every 10% drops from the current 2.68. In my opinion even the very worst BEAR hits such as 2008, the lowest of GTronic is about RM1.80 as by then the yield is almost 10%. Condition is that the fundamental of the business, earning and DPO are still similar as current. If the eps stops growing, the story will fall into opposite side.
On the flip side, I forecast eps is to grow to 24sen and 29sen with FV RM2.90 and RM3.50 in 2014 and 2015 respectively with 20% grow rate each year. This is my sweet dream which keeps my enthusiasm in Bursa warm.
Thank you.

Hi : I received this article as sincerely written and truly reflective. Many personal finance related articles take a part for the whole or with bias assumption. This one is very comprehensive and fair. I strongly recommend you to read.
Mr. Lieu : Thank you very much.

Hi Gloomberg : I like your way of doing homework very much. Please keep on. Do you perform the same on other counters such as KFima, JTiasa, Mahsing, Huayang, SP Setia, Notion, GTronic, Zhulian, HaiO, CIMB, MBSB etc ? If yes and if you do not mind, please post it as I believe I can benefit a lot from your homework and I would like to exchange my little view too. Thank you very much.

Hi Ladzatz : Sorry, you have to find your own answer. Thanks for calling bro, very polite. As I have had some in my portfolio, I am not in hurry. I will consider at 1.80-1.90 depending on macro environment and valuation of orther stocks in my watchlist at that time. Good Luck.

Among many counters selected by KC Chong, I like KFima the most and it is the only one I have in my portfolio. I have confident on KFima, in fact I am waiting for lower entry price to collect and hold more. Why it is now about time to buy more ? It is because your reason : "Low Palm Oil". I buy mostly in down cycle such as Palm Oil and seldom buy on up cycle such as O&G. Before making money, I firstly think about not to lose big. Thks.

Tan KW: we discussed average cost down few days ago. Now i quote you with actual example that I bought CIMB and Genting moment ago for average cost down. May God bless my action.

This is my favorite article which I have read not less than 10 times. I even translate it together with”打工仔的生天/的一百万”, “第13个月薪金 “ into English and made a public presentation to a small group during one of the training session years ago. This is the main pushing force to my long haul investment in Bursa. I strongly 打工仔 to read it. Please think about this “ your specialty/expertise which you acquired from your 30-35 year as 打工仔 will DEPRECIATE TO ZERO the day after you retire”. Very sad.

You dig out my one of my sadnest memory. I lost 1 Kancil to Robert Kwok here. Till today I am still 咬牙切齿的悔恨.

Please justify :
Star 1 :....Star 2:...Star 3: ...Star4:...& Star 5 : ....

Penang Ran : pls read "8月份可留意的高息股 - YILAI - 阿Boon
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 19 Aug 22:39"

Ah Boon : Thank you very much

Cold Eye has an article talking about not to borrow money for investment. Inside that, he did say about certain % of portfolio can be from borrowed fund, it is 20% if my memory is still trustworthy. Pls go ahead to search for it. Good Luck for Penang.

Hi KC Chong : I dare not to call myself a value investor here b'cos I do not know how to use Financial Tools to calculate value but I know that I am a 100% Value Investor in Ah Pek' s way. I know only Rev, PAT, Growth Rate, Net margin, eps, PE, div yield and the macro economy and prospect of the business. As I cannot perform professional financial analysis, I limit myself to those widely analyzed and recommended stocks such as Maybank, LPI, Digi, Mahsing, Zhulian, CIMB etc. That is why I call relatively safe. I do not time the market daily or monthly but just wait patiently for the generally perceived Bear(Christmas Sale) to buy. There is not absolute Bear, just relatively low and safe, then I buy and hold until Bull while receiving reasonably dividend along. That simple it is. I believe this is a simple and safe way to make money for old age for many people like me who want to invest in Bursa but do not know Financial Analysis.
Simple example of Christmas Sale: if MBB drops to RM8.50 and assume div 60sen, yield is 7%. I see this as a value buy, and take action; if the bear grows bigger and MBB downs to 8.0, I will buy again and if unfortunately it downs further to 7.00, I will buy more till no fund.
What do you think ?
Thank you very much.

Hi KC Chong: As I have told you my industry background, must well I tell you further that I aware of many dirty tricks on numbers which auditors will not realize. My comments on Fibun was sincere and not come lightly, they came along with experience. Hopefully, Fibun differs from what I have seen before. GOOD LUCK.

Hi KC Chong : Thanks for your sharing. I would like to further share with you my story on investing. You have outright spotted on my investment strategic which delivers good return in long term. In fact I can proudly say that those who follow my advice such as few close friends and my wife are making VERY decent return so long BUT not for myself. Why ? Because I preach one thing but do another thing on myself due to lack of self discipline and greed. Self discipline is something easier to say than do especially in Bursa which has certain degree of gambling element. Sigh, I were born as “Son Of Gambling God” and destined to lose in Bursa. So I always want to preach safe investment strategy with sincere hope that those believe me do not repeat my stupid mistake.
(you are right that my kind of stocks are fully valued at the moment. But I preach to buy only at Christmas Sale/Big Bear, not now)
Hi, I am very interested on your FA but do not know how to start. FYI, I am a technical/R&D guy in manufacturing industry with zero knowhow on financial jargon. One day I may beg you teaching me FA.
Thank you very much.

KYTan : I like you. When I have more time, I will add on your comment. Thks

Are you talking about Mahsing ? Bonus from Mahsing has over months ago, no more bonus.

KC : Do you consider to take profit now ? Or you still have faith on it? Just want to learn your thinking process.

At least I know that you are not a patient investor. From historical trend, you and Mahsing are not the right match, unless Mahsing change today onward. In order to end mind torture, divorce is an option. Then find a sexy girlfriend elsewhere for happier life.

Hi : The quoted 2 scenarios on John and Mary are about the message that I always wants to convey that I should stay very focus and be very specialized on area of my strength. I should not hoping around, much more that I am not a financial specialist. Since I am quite familiar with Cold Eye, I stick strictly to Cold Eye. As I am familiar with high dividend stocks, I stick strictly to it. I should not sway from my core value by strong temptation around such as buying Fibon and CBIP(example only, pls do not shot me).
Thank you

Hi KC Chong : While writing, I have a bit worry that you may shot me. Now I am relief. TQ

Hi : I came across this kind of articles few times already. I think it is危言耸听 and irresponsible. If say, RM5000/month is insufficient, those engineers who earning 2000-5000 within the 1-5 years of working are dying already. And most of the Malaysian are dying too. Just throw a stone to the street of KL, 9 out 10 of the people is earning less than 5000/month.
If you earn RM5000, you can do this:
i) Second hand car less than RM20K(purchased with cash after 1-2 years of working; it is unfair to quote an unrealistic example by buying expensive car)
ii) Apartment at RM400K or less. (unfair to quote unrealistic house loan at 450K)
Take your numbers on monthly expense =RM1250
EPF=550
Income Tax =200
House installment= 1800(400K, loan 360K for 30 years)
Education loan=200
Total expense= 4000
Net saving = 1000/month.

Hi Mr Tan KW : I would like to share my genuine thoughts with you.
i) It is now a bull run, whatever I say below is irrelevant and some people may even think, I am wrong.
ii) Let us bring the time back to a bear market or a normal market after a bear. At that time, we always say 6/10 are making lost, 2/10 break even and 2/10 are making profit who are the big fund and cold eye. Is this quote not valid anymore ? If it is still valid, I will never think that I would be one of the last two. What do you think? Who will you be then?
iii) Investing is addictive or sort of gambling. The more money you made from Bursa, the bigger illusion you will have that you are smart and will put in even more money with hope to make even more and faster. During the early bear, you will still think that you are an experience guy, smart and believe the market will rebound soon. I doubt any heavy investors like us will cut lost fast enough during the early bear because if we can do so, in the first place we will not invest so much during the bull-tail.
iv) Do you know what my psychology is now? I am preparing to lose all my current profit plus another 20% loss in my capital. Hopefully not more that 20%, else I will be emotionally down.
v) Making 20% profit per year. If Warren Buffet and Tamasek (S’pore investing arm) cannot make it, is it practical for you to think that you can make it. Many friends claimed that they made it. Congratulation. They are now better than W. Buffet and Tamasek. But do you think they will be so in long run. If yes, W. Buffet can get his successor from M’sia easily and EPF can hire them and distribute much higher return to everybody. What a wonderful world.
vi) Technical analysis: In my opinion (maybe Cold Eye too, I am not sure), TA=time the market=speculating. If TA works, do you think the above 6,2,2 quote is still valid ?
vii) I sense you may repeat my past route trading actively on those “not so established” counters. If I did not do so, I were millionaire already just like冷眼 said in 锁定五星级股票 12/3/2007. I am exactly like that sorry friend. Hopefully I have judged you wrongly. Imaging if your entire fund is in Nestle only, how much better is your return now? You may be a millionaire already.
Thank you.

Hi Tan KW :
1) I seldom sell. I keep my portfolio for very long term; can say that I fall in a deep love with my selections. I am a big idiot in this perspective as I saw my profit gone with the wind many times along my 20 years investment in Bursa. I will keep on buying along with my money from saving. My wife always complaints that my investment in Bursa is like a Black hole.
2) I will sell for a better counter during normal and bull market. I will sell when I spotted a better counter such as I switched all PIE to GTronic in May 13 after the div (error in my previous posting on GTronic which I said Mar 13).
3) I sell when I assess the market is overpriced, i.e. I sold half of my holding on Zhulian at 2.50 in 2012. At that time, Zhulian was traded at historical high, I felt that the broad market was over heated and I feared of GE too. Till then, Zhulian has seldom traded at PE>10X. It was proven later a big stupid error and blamed by my wife for many times till today as I vowed that investment in Zhulian is an education fund for my lovely daughter since her birth in 2008.
4) I will sell if PE is approaching 15X, i.e. I am in dilemma now if to sell GTronic which is approaching 3.00 with PE ~15X.
5) Normally I sell a lot in bear market. I frequently sell those “not so good counters” in bear market and switch to 5 stars counters. I do not sell those “not so good counters” in bull market as I have an illusion that they can catch up. Most of the people have emotion and illusion in Bursa, me too. That’s why I am not a millionaire yet.
How about you, Tan ?
Thank you

I share your views on DKSH and I will join DKSH Winning Team many years later as I need long time to understand, follow up the company. Cheer for you first and please reserve a seat for me and provide me any insight to expedite my understanding process. Thank you.

Usually I do not pay much attention on “Net tangible asset backing per share, NTA”, as the only purpose of my investing is to grow together for a long term but not longing for a forced sale on the assets. I will definitely not invest into a business which has any little risk of closing down. If the company is not to close down in foreseeable future, the NTA is meaningless to me.

分享集: 锁定五星级股票 12/3/2007 10:44●冯时能 股票研究人
最近我检讨20年战绩时，喟然叹曰：“假如我当初摒绝投机，脚踏实地投资，只买五星级股票，收藏至今，身家何止增加十倍, 今天已是百万富翁了”，言下懊悔不已。
失败，完全是受占组合的劣股拖累。
要减少错误，最好的办法，是为自己设定一个投资准则：只买五星级股票。
第一颗星：有卓越的管理。先审视管理素质.
{What do I do: Follow up closely on all development on the company, statements from the management, notes in quarterly reports, annual report, background of the directors, interviews of the CEO, comments from media and analyst, the 30 major shareholders etc.}
第二颗星：有成长的业务。{Reasonable growth rate in revenue, PAT and eps.}
第三颗星：盈利的稳定性。{Consistent revenue, PAT and eps}
第四颗星：财务稳健，经得起滔天巨浪的冲击。{Free cash or manageable debt level, Low PE(<10x during normal market, <8X during bear market), high net margin, reasonable size on PAT i.e. 10 mil on PAT is meaningless, can easily gone with the wind.}
第五颗星：生产永远有需求的产品。{Do as第一颗星: follow up closely all development on the company, the industry and macro economy, need to read a lot. It is something like Nokia vs. Iphone/Samsung; Notion’s HDD business; Kodak’s film; Garment and Furniture industries in M’sia.}
第六颗星：高股息, 大于定期. {Consistent and more than 4%, depending on the nature and prospect of the company. The best is 6% and above. i.e. there are many opportunities to get 6+% on Maybank, Zhulian, HaiO, GTronic, PIE when there is a correction on share price which happens at least once per year}
Thks

Hi Tan KW and KC Chong: where did you read that Cold Eye mentions about the 5 yardsticks. Please post that article as I am very interested to read in detail. Thank you very much.

Reflection (感想) 1: Sorry, I forgot his name, in order to link to the KFima case, please forgive me to follow other describing him as “animal”. I do not have any intention to call so; just want to link the case, Namo Amitabha. In my opinion the “so called animal” was way too much with no fact and rational in his argument, just like bitch squalling泼妇骂街. On the other hand, why you as a more educated gentleman, follow suit. I think if you just clarify yourself for few times will do, do not need to throw mud to each others. It was a very minor misunderstanding. Not worth to do so. You are respected as sifu by many, that is a very great accomplishment. Please keep up the good job. Let the issue over and him goes. Please.