Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-17 22:38 | Report Abuse

If the broad market is not changed, and the price drop in a counter is due to non severe changes such as Genting which is facing less attractive earning due to GenS and palm oil, I will normally average in after the price downs by 10%.

When the broad market corrects downward, all good counters drop too, just different in magnitude. I will assess few things before averaging cost down on the same counter.
i) There are no better counters. Example, I like Zhulian(in the existing portfolio), but if at that time Maybank drops more than Zhulian and provides better valuation than Zhulian, I will buy Maybank(new to portfolio) instead of averaging cost down on Zhulian.
ii) Exposure to that counter and industry. Example if I have too high exposure on MLM, I would find other counter in other sector for diversification.
iii) Fundamental of that good counter is still intact, solid and visible.
iv) The outlook of the macro economy is not facing high risk, else all good counters may drop further.
Thks

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-18 14:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Tan KW :
1) I seldom sell. I keep my portfolio for very long term; can say that I fall in a deep love with my selections. I am a big idiot in this perspective as I saw my profit gone with the wind many times along my 20 years investment in Bursa. I will keep on buying along with my money from saving. My wife always complaints that my investment in Bursa is like a Black hole.
2) I will sell for a better counter during normal and bull market. I will sell when I spotted a better counter such as I switched all PIE to GTronic in May 13 after the div (error in my previous posting on GTronic which I said Mar 13).
3) I sell when I assess the market is overpriced, i.e. I sold half of my holding on Zhulian at 2.50 in 2012. At that time, Zhulian was traded at historical high, I felt that the broad market was over heated and I feared of GE too. Till then, Zhulian has seldom traded at PE>10X. It was proven later a big stupid error and blamed by my wife for many times till today as I vowed that investment in Zhulian is an education fund for my lovely daughter since her birth in 2008.
4) I will sell if PE is approaching 15X, i.e. I am in dilemma now if to sell GTronic which is approaching 3.00 with PE ~15X.
5) Normally I sell a lot in bear market. I frequently sell those “not so good counters” in bear market and switch to 5 stars counters. I do not sell those “not so good counters” in bull market as I have an illusion that they can catch up. Most of the people have emotion and illusion in Bursa, me too. That’s why I am not a millionaire yet.
How about you, Tan ?
Thank you

Posted by Lim Jy Lim > 2013-08-18 14:48 | Report Abuse

知易行难。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-18 17:07 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Tan KW : I would like to share my genuine thoughts with you.
i) It is now a bull run, whatever I say below is irrelevant and some people may even think, I am wrong.
ii) Let us bring the time back to a bear market or a normal market after a bear. At that time, we always say 6/10 are making lost, 2/10 break even and 2/10 are making profit who are the big fund and cold eye. Is this quote not valid anymore ? If it is still valid, I will never think that I would be one of the last two. What do you think? Who will you be then?
iii) Investing is addictive or sort of gambling. The more money you made from Bursa, the bigger illusion you will have that you are smart and will put in even more money with hope to make even more and faster. During the early bear, you will still think that you are an experience guy, smart and believe the market will rebound soon. I doubt any heavy investors like us will cut lost fast enough during the early bear because if we can do so, in the first place we will not invest so much during the bull-tail.
iv) Do you know what my psychology is now? I am preparing to lose all my current profit plus another 20% loss in my capital. Hopefully not more that 20%, else I will be emotionally down.
v) Making 20% profit per year. If Warren Buffet and Tamasek (S’pore investing arm) cannot make it, is it practical for you to think that you can make it. Many friends claimed that they made it. Congratulation. They are now better than W. Buffet and Tamasek. But do you think they will be so in long run. If yes, W. Buffet can get his successor from M’sia easily and EPF can hire them and distribute much higher return to everybody. What a wonderful world.
vi) Technical analysis: In my opinion (maybe Cold Eye too, I am not sure), TA=time the market=speculating. If TA works, do you think the above 6,2,2 quote is still valid ?
vii) I sense you may repeat my past route trading actively on those “not so established” counters. If I did not do so, I were millionaire already just like冷眼 said in 锁定五星级股票 12/3/2007. I am exactly like that sorry friend. Hopefully I have judged you wrongly. Imaging if your entire fund is in Nestle only, how much better is your return now? You may be a millionaire already.
Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-18 18:02 | Report Abuse

bsngpg,
Your advice is most appropriate and suited here. I would say the majority of the people here should listen to your experience i order to avoid future regret. However, I doubt many people here would want to listen to your "jong yuen" (honest words) here because they are "neh er" (painful to the ears).

Punters always think of and how they can make 50%, or 100% return within a short period (looking up). However they should end up better if they look down (invest with a margin of safety to avoid heavy losses). Sigh, we are all human, like what this fellow said.

Posted by Lim Jy Lim > Aug 18, 2013 02:48 PM | Report Abuse
知易行难。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-18 18:15 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong : While writing, I have a bit worry that you may shot me. Now I am relief. TQ

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-20 12:34 | Report Abuse

Tan KW: we discussed average cost down few days ago. Now i quote you with actual example that I bought CIMB and Genting moment ago for average cost down. May God bless my action.