maybe no GST this year, no benefit for censof

thx unclez for your comments.

“After the sale of the assets, we will literally have zero borrowings. There are lots of opportunities for us to invest our money. We will take our time to look for good deals,” Executive director Datuk Eddy Leong said.

The proceeds from the disposal will also fund the expansion of its landbank expansion in Klang Valley, Johor and Penang.

almost debt free but special dividend may be small, and have to wait a few months.

@wahaha126

23.5c so high already, still can buy? just joking lah lol. but serious, you think the account and cash is real, and this company is well managed?

brudders, is this stock worth buying? this company making money, how come so low?

@Hjey

tq. the 3 business division Property (making money), Automotive (losses, don't know if the vietnam operation sold is the whole department), Trading (minimal profit). i'm just worried about their cost efficiency as without the non-recurring profit, profit would be minimal. Having spoken with OTB, he is going with this stock purely on a TA aspect. a pure fundamental player may wait until the next qtr to see ho things go, but by then the price may have (???) moved.

thanks for comment, Mr Ooi.

Mr Ooi,

if i am clear on your response, you are primarily a TA user (at least in this case), and in this case the FA ie the Total Net Profit Years/Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years etc & the Method 1-4 using earnings/cashflow is just for reference.

can you give a brief explanation of how bad a company's FA situation have to be before you make it your main criteria ie you decide not to trade based on the FA even though the TA is good?

lol so you're saying fat cat is a mad dog? i'm new here, so i cannot judge him, but will be wary of his comments. tq.

fat cat,

perhaps you should consider that i am not talking cock and making silly arguments, i want to know OTB's thought process. This is a forum, and i am here to learn, so please allow discussion especially if someone disagree. I am not too smart to learn from others.

If i disagree with a soh chai and i ignore, ok lah, but this is OTB.
If i don't know how OTB reach a conclussion, or why he take/don't take something into account, then how to learn?

Mr Ooi,

the total profit is 205m, non recurring profit is 209m. take away the vietnam automotive division maybe the operating exp/finance cost will also be lower slightly but overall looking at pure numbers (including the high debt level), the performance may not be so good. did i overlook anything, if not i hope the numbers will improve when the next qtr come out.

guys, i see the recommendation on Hapseng-w. looking at the latest quarter 30 june 2013, the bulk of the profit come from selling their automotive operation in vietnam (rm209m profit). If you take the non recurring profit away, the EPS would drop drastically maybe to zero, or negative. am i wrong? what about the debt level so high. can anyone comment on why this stock is recommend if the performance seems not so good? If my basis is wrong, please excuse my question.

Mr Ooi,
i see you recommend Hapseng-w. looking at the latest quarter 30 june 2013, the bulk of the profit come form selling their automotive operation in vietnam (rm209m profit). If you take the abnormal profit away, the EPS would drop drastically maybe to zero, or negative. am i wrong? i'm sure you've done your homework, so can you please comment on why you still recommend if the performance seems not so good? If my basis is wrong, please excuse my question.

@Ali Khair Al-Juhri

if a person everyday make a prediction, one day he will be right :-)

chia88,

can explain how you get your target 80c?

chia88,

can explain how to calculate the 80c value?

seems like a good mid-Lt hold

gocean usually quiet, but got recent buying. maybe something going on.

maybe s466466 mean target 0.36

plus major shareholder is tenage also good, i guess. will study your anlaysis comments, sh2383jbt TQ

xingxian and other stockinvestors, how you arrive at the Conservative TP RM 1.98? do the extra line opening warrant a new re-rating since the price at such high already? anyone can comment?

stockcrazy, can explain how do you forecast the new high of rm1.60? tq

observer3's posting & analysis so spot on. OBSERVER3, you are new here? Pls post more.

puncak at rm2.4 after adjusted 5s to rm2.58 = 18c lower pershare for the warrant. at this price of rm2.40, warrant have to be rm1.80 to break even. will puncak go up after stabilise? like some say, 3-6 months holding period.

summary from hng33: because the puncak price can come down after ex, so "cash return on each current puncak share is 21sen to 25sen" depend if one have holding power and have investment horizon 3 to 6 month. right or not?

@hng33

sorry i missed that. thanks for the repeat and your analysis.

@hng33 u wrote a lot about KPS, tq. but how to estimate the intrinsic value for puncak in the absence of the details for the water agreement? excuse me if you had already commented earlier on Puncak but i only saw catalyst for "Puncak - free warrant + cum 5sen TE dividend + water restructuring progress. "

hng33, how to estimate the intrinsic value of puncak or KPS, if don't know the terms of the water agreement?

"Petronas had failed in its bid to take MISC private as its revised buyout offer of RM5.50 per share (compared with the earlier offer of RM5.30 per share) fell 3.93 per cent short on the stipulated acceptance level of 90 per cent."

@kcchongnz u think there is any chance that a 'major' minority would say no because they think the GO price is undervalue (esp after the revalue), like what happen recently with the MISC GO?

thanks for reply iafx & hng33.

iafx "see page 4, estimated timeframe from the completion of the Proposed Disposal for special dividend" been going thru the bursa site, cannot see anything about the special dividend. can anyone point out the announcement date for KPS special dividend and what not?

@kcchongnz

[So when you participate in an arbitrage situation where you believe the stock is undervalued even at the deal price, there is little that can go wrong (assuming your valuation assumptions are correct: that of course is the key).]

wasn't the misc Takeover failure something like that. in this case, it went wrong. who knows, maybe minority may say the 83c is 'undervalued'?

@kcfan
do you think they will call for a rights issue (or something like that) to raise funds for the $200 million university. how will they fund it?

wow, what a beauty!

with the purchase of amerton financed by right issue, issue of new shares and pref shares, the enlarged share cap means that dividend will be very little. hope the capital gain can more than make up for it.

" if it is not your money, it wont go into your pocket ':D"
true lah, fat cat, at least for me too. i share your pain :-0

@Namoyaki

this is just a discussion. no worries, man :-) if someone wants to put me down, that is his choice, this is the 'net after all. i merely wish to know what i have asked about. tq.

pilindo, thanks for reply.

guys , inari has a customer which is a substantial shareholder (is it Avago?) which contribute 96% to the total revenue. 10% share is not very big if they contribute 96% revenue! Is this a major risk or a good thing? Does this mean we are basically looking at the risk of the substantial shareholder?

@anbz yes, you are definitely smarter than me and a lot of people here, and your england also more powderful than mine. we are just discussing here, i apologize if you have to lower your standard to talk to me, thank you for your understanding. but you did not say whether you advise to sell khsb (did you miss my question), so sell is it? and have you got any recommend what good stock for readers here to buy?

@anbz

just saying that whether it is stock, deal, valuation or a football match - if a person is confident, then he is confident, it's all relatively subjective really. And you seem to have a lot of questions for OTB but when he reply, you always have your own answers ready. maybe you are more experienced than most people this forum. your advice is to sell khsb?

@otb, thanks for reply.

@anbz, most times i see your point but this '200% confidence' is just a means of expression. it can be 201% or 199% also. just a number to imply that after doing his research, he is confident. Another person do the same research, read the same numbers, maybe he think not. Everyone is unique in their own way. is there a secret? unless i am missing something, OTB already shared what he thinks about this stock.

@smartly, what if even if situation is bad (and some would say maybe a good time to move in), this is all done at the Top level,and the big picture is LAND IS SCARCE in klang valley, and KHSB got plenty. anyway, we are not riding long-term to see how the company develops the land, we are just riding the GO.

OTB,
nice analysis and writeup. with disclaimer somemore "Stock price can perform or not is beyond my control" lol (and where is the announcement, i cannot find!)

anyway, after the MISC thing, do you think a problem with the GO could crop up because of "minority" issue? if 10% (say the any block insiders who want to stop the GO) and they vote no. why? bcos "83c is vastly undervalue vs $1.90 (example) value for stock after revaluation", right? at $1.++ revaluation, big reason why an individual investor may not agree. then the GO may not go thru. am i being drama or is this possible?

OOiTB,

do you think you would assess "management credibility" with equal importance in your overall analysis, rather than just the earnings? since after this L&G thing, it is a 'management' issue that has derailed the momentum for this stock.

"Opinions are like assholes. Everybody's got one and everyone thinks everyone else's stinks."

all those people critic OTB, please let me know when you find "guarantee 100% winning" system also.

ryanc, thanks for your reply.

"Indeed if anybody had done this and bought after it shot up then they will have serious losses now" i never listen to otb but i bought in KHSB at around this price after shoot up with avg price 062. also you have to take into account Otb never ask them to trade KHSB,but buy and hold. this is maybe a 6 months exercise. unless the MGO is officially cancelled, the game not over yet, at least not now, unless you are a trader.

also "Furthermore KHSB counter is manipulated" some people got insider news so the price go up. but which counter go up is not manipulated by certain parties or funds, because i think retailer in malaysia no power to push stocks.

so you believe that an MGO (not those takeover asset & liabilities of company) which is announced already will probably not go through? has there been something like this in BURSA?

Ryanc,

"his OTB slammed me when I commented that his recommendation on L&G and his other stocks was no good"

i look for your past posting but cannot find. can i ask on hindsight why you thought L&G was a crap counter - you use chart or fundamental?

"I am convinced that PR will win in GE13. Hence I will still bet on KHSB"

Ooi, please tell me that you base your KHSB buy call on bursa/business MGO legality and takeover usually (always) going through no matter what. if you are basing your choice on the fact that PR will win, better you go bet with the election punters bcos what is the difference.

Anyone think whether PR or BN take-over, the deal will stop? every shareholder is happy with the offer. WHO WANTS TO BE THE BAD GUY and stop the deal, especially since no protest from minority? for all you know, if BN wins back selangor, they may say PKR gomen underpay the sholders and up the offer.