Target price is only 3.95.......

Alliance Bank is one of the smallest bank in Malaysia,,, Can they survive in the next financial crisis???

AFG’s share price registered the strongest outperformance among peers, appreciating 17% since our upgrade in Feb 16 and 16% ytd (sector: 5%). Current valuations imply an ROE of close to 12.0%, higher than our 11.1% forecast. We think such a strong ROE expectation which the market is pricing in will be challenged by sharply higher provisions. Downgrade to HOLD but maintain target price at RM3.95 (1.24x FY17F P/B, 11.1% ROE, 11.5x PE). Entry price: RM3.80.

Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 4 Apr 2016

Alliance bank is one of the smallest local bank in Malaysia.....Can they survive in the next financial crisis???

Could be all PFI projects are completed.....

Alliance bank loan operation is totally in a mess. They don't act according to loan offer letter...and their instalment notice is not consistent with their collection department.

Be careful...if you want to get loan from Alliance bank.

government may further increase tax for gambling sector......better sell now....

（联合早报网讯）随着油价本周一度跌破30美元关口，世界主要钻油台厂商吉宝企业（Keppel Corp）与胜科海事（Sembcorp Marine）今天股价各大跌超过6％，因市场继续担心它们的巴西大客户Sete Brasil可能破产。
吉宝企业股价一早便跌破5.00元关口，最终收报4.86元，跌幅达33分或6.35％；胜科海事股价收报1.37元，跌幅达10分或6.80％。
- See more at: http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20160114-570910#sthash.Dxj6TOl3.dpuf

I wonder Sete Brasil is also SK's customer??

Kuala Lumpur : Major shake up in DRB Hicom is on the verge of taking place, that will the company’s group managing director Tan Sri Khamil Jamil stepping down as group managing director of DRB Hicom.

MyBursa was told that officially, it will be stated that Khamil has reached the DRB Hicom retirement age, which is set at 60. The real reason though, DrB’s controlling stakeholder Tan Sri Syed Mokthar Al Bukhary, has basically given up on Proton, and has taken his best men out of DRB Hicom and moved him on to Pos Malaysia Bhd, where Khamil has been basically told that he will have to deliver the country’s biggest ever internet company, focused on e-commerce business.

To do that, Khamil who will be made executive chairman of Pos Malaysia, will likely tie up with a foreign partner as well as use the haulage, and logistics assets at his disposal.

Khamil has been instrumental in turning DRB Hicom around, but Proton, was an animal just beyond his grasp as there were outside interference, which made restructuring Proton almost impossible.

Coupled with the problems faced by DRB ‘s German partner Volkswagen Ag, has seen Honda emerge as the biggest revenue earner in DRB Hicom’s automotive division this year.

With Khamil in charge of Pos Malaysia, and Syed Mokthar himself an expert in the port and logistics business, Pos Malaysia is expected to quickly outshine the likes o0f GDEX, GHL, and Tiongnam Logistics Bhd, who are all trying to position themselves as the e-commerce service provider of choice.

http://www.mybursa.news/2015/12/11/major-shake-up-in-drb-hicom-as-syed-mokthar-shifts-his-chips-to-pos-malaysia/

I'm so glad that more 500k Malaysian that have shown their 'CARE' to this country via participating BERSIH.....and I'm glad that 80 years old Mr. Koon has shown his CARE to this country AGAIN via sharing his view through this platform... Thanks to all Malaysian who CARE of the future of Malaysia...

Run.....Run......Run......most probably next quarter even worst....

Right!!....they alway prefer mat salleh...over local talent.....

We should at least acknowledge and appreciate Mr. Koon good intention and his willingness to teach and guide younger generation....

Mr. Koon,....Malaysia needs to have more people like you....salute to you!!

on 11 Aug, i predicted DRB will report loss.....as Automotive contributed 76% to the group’s total revenue. (http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/drb-hicom-posts-loss-1q-warns-very-challenging-year). Thus, Proton NOT doing well, it will "severely" affect the whole group performance.

DRB insists to put a designer (NOT design engineer) without any good track record to run their most important business, Proton.....Haaa....Haaa!!!...........Most people in Proton (including vendors) know who should be the right guy to manage Proton,.....BUT, Tan sri pretend DONT KNOW!!!....because, that guy refuse to "kiss his XXX"... (...my friend in Proton told me.....)

Anyway, most people that familiar with DRB business have sold their shares.....

KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors are ‘escaping’ Malaysia, a Bloomberg report today has concluded.
Chua Hak Bin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Singapore sums up the reasons.
“Investors cannot see the end game,” he tells Bloomberg. “Anybody who questions the prime minister has basically been sidelined.”
“The domestic situation on the political side is uncertain,” he adds, and its politics may affect economic management. With Bank Negara Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz’s term expiring in April 2016 there are doubts that she will be replaced by someone as “independent and credible,” he said further.
Bloomberg points to some alarming statistics since August 3, the day the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) declared the RM2.6 billion which Prime Minister Najib Razak received in his private banking accounts came from donors rather than from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB):
The ringgit has slumped 5.6 percent
the benchmark KLCI has lost 8.3 percent
sovereign bond risk has jumped to a four-year high
1MDB bonds are trading at 81 cents to the dollar despite MACC’s seemingly favourable announcement.
Of the foreign funds cited in the report, PineBridge Investments LLC has reduced its Malaysian sovereign bond holdings while Schroder Investment Management Ltd does not think that the ringgit, Asia’s worst performing currency, is worth investing in at the present time.
It means that Najib’s attempt at reshuffling his cabinet into what he has called a ‘unified team’ has been in vain.
“By sacking everyone who criticizes him, Prime Minister Najib is putting himself more in the spotlight from an international investor perspective,” PineBridge’s Anders Faergemann was quoted as saying.
“The mix of politics, money trails and central bank investigations would rank it close to Petrobras in terms of how toxic it is to emerging-market investors,” fund manager Yasmine Ravai-Mans of La Francaise Des Placements in France was quoted as saying.
“There’s a growing trust deficit with the current leadership,” Chua said further. “Without confidence returning to the leadership and government, investors will be reluctant to jump into the currency and the markets.”
He expects the ringgit to fall to 4.28 by the end 2016
- See more at: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2015/08/19/bloomberg-foreign-investors-escaping/#sthash.TxJ9wiPq.dpuf

Malaysia is paying the price for weak foreign currency holdings and messy politics as the cost to protect its debt soars to near a four-year high. UBS Group AG predicts even more pain ahead.

The spread on the nation’s credit-default swaps widened 74 basis points in 2015 to 180 this week, a level not seen since October 2011. It’s the worst performing in Asia and almost 40 basis points more than similar-rated oil-producer Mexico, which the Swiss bank says best illustrates the malaise for Malaysia.

“The moves in CDS are telling us that the market is increasingly nervous about the central bank’s ability to manage the foreign-exchange selloff in light of its relatively light reserves position,” said Manik Narain, a London-based strategist at UBS. “Malaysia’s situation may now be more precarious.”


Bank Negara Malaysia’s foreign-exchange reserves slipped below US$100 billion last month for the first time since 2010. They look “increasingly meagre” by emerging-market standards, said Narain, and compare with foreigners’ RM206.8 billion (US$50.6 billion) holdings of local-currency debt in July, the lowest in three years.
The ringgit this week traded near the weakest level since 1998 as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak comes under the spotlight over reports of an almost $700 million donation into his bank account that was initially linked to debt-ridden state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd.

The central bank might have to raise interest rates because of a limited ability to defend the currency amid falling reserves, Narain said.

The ringgit was trading at 4.09 per dollar at 10:18 am in Kuala Lumpur and UBS expects the currency to fall to 4.20 by year-end. – Bloomberg, August 19, 2015

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/more-pain-ahead-for-malaysia-amid-messy-politics-warns-ubs#sthash.YzFYgWtN.dpuf

malaysia weakness & threat:

Weakness:
1. Political uncertainty- as najis choose to stay on.
2. Unresolved 1MDB
3. 2.6B scandal
4. Ringgit is weakening
5. Oil price remains soft

Threat :
1. US interest rate
2. China slowing down - commodity prices will remain low.
3. Europe recovery is slow and weak
4. japan is contracting again...

thus, KLSE and ringgit will continue in down trend. Please comments...

Major " Earthquake" is coming:

1. Rise in US interest rate. Ringgit will further depreciate.
2. China slow down, commodity prices will remain soft.
3. Political uncertainty - Najis's struggling to survive will continue, opposition and Tun will not let it go easily.
4. 1MDB will NOT able to be "resolved" due to weak economy and loan in US dollar..
5. Europe will not able recover if China & emerging market economy are weak..
6. Japan economy is contracting....and....etc....

after 28 Aug (30 Jun Quarterly result).....DRB share will hit below RM1............

Run!....Run!!.....Run!!!

If you all may recall 1998 financial crisis, how many U?NO linked "highly geared" companies were in trouble. This round of "slow down", I believe those companies will face even bigger problem as currently government has no spare time to rescue U?NO linked companies...1?DB is a biggest shit that they need to spend most of their energy to CLEAN... Right??

I did not dispute that DRB owns a list of "good" assets. BUT, I'm questioning the capability and competencies of the Top management...Likewise, Malaysia has a list of good resources. BUT,....look at RM now....Compare with Singapore, no resources, yet they are performing...Is Talent (management team) that determine the sustainability and future of the company NOT the assets....I guess we are investing in the future earning of the company NOT the assets....If NOT, we should just go for REIT....

KUALA LUMPUR, July 24 — The fortunes of national carmaker Proton reflects the frailty of Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Bukhary’s highly-leveraged business empire, said DAPs’ Tony Pua after a minister accused him exaggerating claims against the Umno-linked billionaire and 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).

Responding to Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan’s diatribe posted on Facebook, the Petaling Jaya Utara MP insisted that his warnings from years ago over the systemic risk posed by Syed Mokhtar’s over RM34 billion in combined liabilities was an accurate assessment.

“The debts are huge and some of his companies, such as Proton, are desperately seeking support — directly or indirectly— from the government.

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/dubbed-prophet-of-doom-pua-holds-up-proton-as-evidence#sthash.FXlXqlwk.dpuf

Eric: Proton is definitely not a small part of DRB. Last year they have done a risk management study and concluded that more than 50% of DRB business is Proton related.

Proton survival is very much depend on Proton friendly policy by Malaysia government....

Today, do you think Najib administration will continue to favor Proton in view of his current relationship with Dr.M ?

超过2个要小心 公司倒闭5大征兆

特征一无大将可用 “千军易得，一将难求。”这是中国俗语，也是一个颠扑不破的真理。如果你的企业做大了，1个亿、10亿，甚至上百亿，如果你找不到大将可用，那你就距离失败不远了。

三国时候，“蜀中无大将、廖化做先锋”的故事正在中国很多的中小型企业中蔓延。很多老板还沾沾自喜说自己年轻能干，却不知道自己已经成了企业发展的最大障碍。 因为这样的老板虽然能力很强，但是在没有大将的情况下，往往战略清晰，战术失误。更可怕的是，在这样的企业中，就像三国时候没有人怀疑诸葛孔明一样，老板的旨意成了企业的发展方向，最终会给企业造成失街亭的危险。 没有大将，企业就没有跨越发展的机会。

特征二中层无能 比没有大将更可怕的是企业的中层没有思想、十分无能。在我走过的企业中，中层无能的企业至少在中国占据60~70%。很多人都在研究中国企业平均寿命只有4~5年，却不知道，80%的企业失败都和中层无能有关。 三鹿的失败，很多人说是质量问题，而熟悉三鹿的人都知道，是中层问题。中层是市场到高层的连接带，也是执行和解决市场问题的核心力量。如果这个层级出现问题，可以说，企业距离关门的日子就不远了。

特征三一线腐败 在一个中国式的企业生态中，腐败似乎已经是一个普遍的问题了。如果一个企业家遇到了正直的大将和中层，那么我告诉你，你肯定是祖上显灵。 好比快消品领域，腐败很常见，有和经销商吃公司费用的，有兼职给别的企业打工的，有自己开店的，有费用作假的，损公肥私、吃里扒外的，有内外勾结的等等。

特征四只开会不决策 有激情的企业家都有一个共同的特征，就是决策力。这个决策是既快又准。而要达到这个能力的核心是要抓住事物的本质和重点。无数没有激情的企业家天天主持会议，天天研究的同样的问题，而天天都没有结论。天天在开会，天天纸上谈兵谈兵，那你就一定是在给企业的衰败注入基因。

特征五老板爱听奉承 今天成功的企业家中，谁不爱听奉承?问题是，多数成功者能够分清楚什么是由衷的赞美，什么是奉承。 喜欢奉承的老板的下属一般有三个目的：一是从你那里要拿到利益;一是要给你进谗言;一是要架空你。可以说，这样的企业未来在哪里? - See more at: http://www.aboluowang.com/2015/0617/572470.html#sthash.NeSmUOWU.dpuf

亚洲金融危机,又将在东南亚上演？

亚洲金融危机 “原罪”又将在东南亚上演？

上一次东南亚经济体大肆向外借贷的同时又遭遇到了本币的剧烈贬值，最终引发了金融危机。如今，印尼和马来西亚似乎又将重演他们在1997-1998年所犯下的错误。 2015年迄今为止，印尼和马来西亚政府及企业发行的外币债已经超过了他们2014发行的外债总规模。 最新数据显示，印尼今年前6个月共计发售60亿美元外币债券，去年全年则为68亿美元。印尼政府还计划发行更多的欧元和日元债。马来西亚则发行了15亿美元的债券，该国去年并未发行外币债。两个国家企业发行的外币债至今规模为110亿美元，超过去年全年的100亿美元。 与此同时，印尼卢比上周跌至1998年以来最低水平，马来西亚林吉特则因为在1998年之后开始和美元汇率绑定，因此跌势相对靠稳。 美银美林新兴市场经济学家主管Hak Bin Chua向彭博新闻社表示，“有迹象显示所谓的原罪将卷土重来。在本地债券收益率飙升和外资偏好消退的情况下，政府将被迫发售更多的外币债券融资。” 该行的数据统计显示，印尼的原罪指数升至0.67，为十多年来最高水平;马来西亚则升至0.37，此前5年平均水平则为0.1。美银认为过多的负债将导致汇率和资本市场波动率加大，并影响评级下降和货币政策的灵活性。 经济学家Barry Eichengreen和Ricardo Hausmann曾将发展中国家因向外借贷而遭遇金融困境的现象定义为“原罪”。 Eichengreen通过邮件向彭博新闻社表示，“我怀疑最终的结局会是另一场亚洲金融危机，并且对于主要新兴市场而言，破坏力可能会更大。” 国际金融研究所亚太区主管Jean-Charles Sambor则认为，东南亚国家所面临最大的挑战可能不是美联储加息，因为加息预期早已经计入市场价格之中。加息的时机选择，和全球紧缩周期启动的预期才是最大风险。一旦市场开始思考这些问题的话，印尼和马来西亚势必将首当其冲受到巨大影响。 - See more at: http://www.aboluowang.com/2015/0616/572004.html#sthash.FUCX8SOl.dpuf

Proton can only survive, IF:

1) Continue to get "support" from government.....BUT, judging current political situation, no way government give them the support they need.
2) Replace Proton CEO, just like MAS.
3) let the New CEO act independently without DRB direct involvement in their operation....

If you are in the automotive industry, you should know the current CEO is a just a DRB's "puppet"...totally a "incompetent" CEO....

Agreed,,,,Proton just a part of DRB HICOM not the Whole.....BUT.....Proton is a black hole.....and manufacturing division is very much depend on Proton.....

The Edge Daily: Maybank IB is Malakoff’s stabilising manager. It was also Malakoff’s transaction and joint-lead manager, which oversaw the group’s relisting on Bursa Malaysia on May 15, 2015 at RM1.80 apiece.

Malakoff said Maybank IB had acquired 188.5 million of its shares during the stabilising period, equivalent to some 12.4% of the total number of shares offered during its listing.

Malakoff Corp Bhd, the largest independent power producer in Southeast Asia by generation capacity, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) has ceased stabilising actions on its shares today.

so.....the price will coming down ...right??

my source told me, Proton May sales was weak!....just slightly better than April but very much lower than last year figure....Thus, next quarter DRB most probably will be at LOSS......right?

Over production, Under sales.........Proton will out of cash flow soon....

Proton is on brink of bankruptcy soon!-----AGREED

1mdb - Biggest "Scandal" of the century.....right???

Eric: New Saga will be introduce soon. ------When???

This is going to be a totally new model, I doubt Proton is capable to launch it this year.............The new management is in the "mess"............talk to their vendors, dealers, employees, then you will able to find out ...how "incompetent" they are .....

eric: POS Malaysia

- Pos’ 4QFY15 earnings came in at RM19.9mil, bringing FY15 core net profit to RM127.1mil (-20.1% YoY). This is lower than expected, accounting for only 90% of our estimates and 86% of market estimates. No dividends were declared in FY15.

- FY15 earnings was dragged by the down-trending Mail segment. FY15 revenue for Mail came down by 4.7% YoY and its earnings declined to RM79.5mil (-45% YoY), due to lower mail volumes and absence of the one-off revenue surge of RM11mil arising from GE 2013 in FY14. As a consequence of Pos’ high operating leverage, Mail’s EBIT margins deteriorated to 11% (-3ppts YoY).

POS Malaysia performance is lower than expectation....especially 4QFY15....

Produa is going to introduce sedan car to compete with Saga model (Saga is the best selling model for Proton) ....soon.......Proton market share will continue to shrink.....Really cant see the light at the end of the tunnel.....

DRB GMD appointed a designer (not a design engineer) who has never designed a successful commercial launched vehicle to head Proton....Again, most of the competent DRB staff have left.......Accordingly, GMD is surrounded by non performers who are only good in "pleasing" him........(please do your own research).... Look at most empire in the history, once the king is surrounded "useless" ministers....very soon, the empire will be "disappear"....

DRB is a poorly managed company headed by a lawyer who know nothing in corporate management... During economic slowdown....we shall see more and more DRB's subsidiaries are making losses....Proton is dying....now POS Msia.....

I strong believe the share price will go down below RM1 by this year end....Until now, I don't see any hope for Proton to improve....last month sales went down to less than 5000 units...very soon they going to short of fund again.........

let Najib stay.......so PR got chance to win.....

Penang property price is more expensive than Klang valley but their salaries (in general) are amongst the lowest in Malaysia....

Agreed, especially for high rise apartment selling at premium price (ie above RM700 psf) but not at prime location...

1MDBB should also show their cashflow statement.....to show their sustainability ....No company can sustain by revalue their land on yearly basis to show profit.......Right?

Tun Mahathir asked: What happened to 27B in 1MDB??? I guessed 27B is enough to build Twin Tower plus Putrajaya............

Try NOT to be so negative.... Please participate and say NO to 60 years only can withdraw EPF....

Dr M met Azmin in London, attended Anwar father funeral.....coincident or plan??
Tengku Razaleigh suddenly become so ACTIVE is making comments....and speech in parliament....is it another sign??
Lim Kit Siang proposed a coalition government...........

Will Tengku Razaleigh the next PM.....start a new legacy of "RAHMAN" (RAHMAN. ... represents the capital of name of Malaysia's prime minister so far)......

Tengku Razaleigh is a well accepted politician by all races.....and even PAS will accept him as new PM...

last I heard from our "politicians" during coffee break chatting.... they told me that PM will step down in mid 2015...as, new PM needs time to show his new leadership and performance before next election. I thought is just another political rumour.....BUT, it appear to me now, this "rumour' may become REALITY....Let wait and see, Dr M next move....

Malaysia and Malaysia are different "entity".....we love malaysia, we therefore believe that Malaysian deserve better government.....take Singapore government as model......we learn from them and hope in future we can do better than SG government..........

We did not say malaysia is no good....we said Malaysia government is NO good....

Be objective....In general SG government (management) team is definitely stronger and better team....SG government set a good example for any other countries governments (including Malaysia) to follow ....

FYI, even China government is sending their senior officers to SG to learn public administration....

My singaporean friends like to complain about Sg government, I replied, how about My government team to lead their government......Immediately, they become "speechless".............

I believe Malaysia deserve a better government with good governance....