SKLIM288, you won't know unless you wait until the next Annual Report.
Maybe you can guess from the upcoming QR, if there are significant outflows of cash.

A good way to think is to consider which attributes are right for the current market environment.

In late 2008/early 2009:

An investor needed only 2 things to make a lot of money:
- money to invest and
- the nerve to invest.

If he had those 2 things, he made a lot of money in the years that followed.

In retrospect, what he didn't need was caution, conservativism, risk control, discipline, selectivity and patience; the more of those things he had, the less money he made.


Does that mean "money and nerve" is always a surefire formula for investment success? Absolutely not.

If an investor had money and nerve in early 2007, he bore the full brunt of the Global Financial Crisis. That's when he needed caution, conservativism, risk control, discipline, selectivity and patientce.

Moreover, even in late 2008/early 2009, intelligent investors couldn't completely abandon caution and discipline, because there was no way for them to now that the recovery from the GFC would be so quick and the aftermath so relatively painless for investors.

(Another quality repost from this blog. Hate to see the usual scums polluting this place.)

@Choivo Capital, how do you rate LPI now, since the entire market has plunged and bargains are beginning to show?

The objective of fundamental analysis is to determine a company's intrinsic value or its growth prospects.

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis is the study of the various factors that affect a company's earnings and dividends. Fundamental analysis studies the relationship between a company's share price and the various elements of its financial position and performance.

Fundamental analysis also involves a detailed examination of the company's competitors, the industry or sector it is a member of and the broader economy.

Fundamental analysis is forward looking even though the data used is by and large historical. The objective of fundamental analysis is to determine a company's intrinsic value or its growth prospects. This intrinsic value can be compared to the current value of the company as measured by the share price. If the shares are trading at less than the intrinsic value then the shares may be seen as good value.

Many people use fundamental analysis to select a company to invest in, and technical analysis to help make their buy and sell decisions.

Factors affecting future earnings prospects of a company:

Change in senior management
New efficiency measures
Product innovations
Acquisition of another business
Industrial action

Analysing individual companies

The analysis of an individual company has two components:

- The 'story' - what the company does, what its outlook is
- The 'numbers' - the financials of the company, balance sheet and income statement and ratio analysis.

Unfortunately, balance sheet and ratio analysis is probably the most daunting part of fundamental analysis for non-professional investors. A large number of numerical techniques appear to be used. However, you can make it less painful by adopting a methodical approach and by always remembering that behind all the numbers is a real business run by real people producing real goods and services, this is the part we call "the story".

It is unlikely that you will need to do the number crunching for every company, your time will be more profitably spent developing the company story. Balance sheets and ratio analysis, both historical and forecast, can be obtained from either a full service or discount stockbroker.


What are you trying to learn about a company?

Before trying to leap into the calculations behind fundamental analysis there are some basic questions that are worth considering as a starting point:

Where is the growth in the company coming from?
Is the growth being achieved organically or through acquisition?
Is turnover keeping pace with the sector and with competitors?
What about the profit margin - is it growing? Is it too high compared to competitors? If it is too high then new competitors could enter on price reducing margins. Low earnings could suggest control of the cost base has been lost or factors outside the company's control are squeezing margins.
To what extent do profits reflect one-off events?
Will profits be sustainable over the long term?

Companies are multidimensional. For example, debt funding may have increased - this may be a positive move if the funds produce new productive assets.



Fundamental analysis (Summary)

When you buy shares you are becoming a part owner in that business.

To make an informed decision if you want to be an owner in that business, it is important to understand how that company operates and what its prospects are.

To understand a company, you can read its annual report which is one of the most important publications it releases to the market.

Analysing an annual report gives you the ability to build a good picture of how that business has performed over the past 12 months and what its prospects might be for the future.

To compare the annual reports and prospects of different companies, there are commonly used financial ratios, these include dividend per share, dividend yield, PE ratio and earnings per share.

(repost to cleanse the filth here)

I think in turbulent times like this, this article is worth revisiting.

Thank you Tan KW for your diligent & speedy work!

PCHEM's Net Cash generated from operations this QR is still very good compared to last year. (5,544M vs 6,667M) 5 years ago, it was just 4,699M. I agree that when PIC commences, surely there would be more growth.

PCHEM still has hoards of cash of 12,045M this quarter against 12,329M last year. If I'm x mistaken, PCHEM has one of the largest cash piles in entire Bursa. 12B cash against 457M USD non-current borrowings should be pretty comfortable.

I read that "compressed margins" is the killer of high profits PCHEM had enjoyed in recent years. I hope this would be a one-off event when PIC commences & the damn coronavirus subsides.

With PCHEM's worst quarterly profit since IPO, further aggravated by political instability, investors' confidence in Bursa & PCHEM will dampen. May the price stabilise soon to ease our fears of losing more money. I hope I can hold it for the long term like Philip ( Icarus).

It's ironic that holding on & doing nothing is the most difficult thing to do in challenging times.

greatinvestor,
Let me first applaud you with the courage to hold for 2 years. Few investors have this kind of tenacity. Thanks for reminding us to remain strong in turbulent times like this.

Highest annual revenue in years, highest annual profit in years. Yet price hasn't reached new heights. I refuse to believe one declining quarter would condemn its years of good work.

All roads lead to Rome. There are certainly many methods of investing.

P.S. - I thought kcchongnz & Philip (Can I advise you?) both came from the university of Ilmu Puncha Kemajuan?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2016-12-25-story112453-2016_Christmas_Reflection_in_i3investor_com_kcchongnz.jsp & https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2017-11-14-story-h1451644217.jsp I think these articles best represents kcchongnz.

kcchongnz certainly doesn't share merely for self-interest. He's educating i3investors. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2015-10-13-story84352-10_Dangerous_Myths_in_Bursa_kcchongnz.jsp

I only know of two kcchongnz's previous portfolios here. 2019 https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/116402.jsp and 2013 https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp

An Iron Man vs Captain America situation here.

Both sifus kcchongnz & Philip (Can I advise you?) are my most respected i3investor forumers here. Both sifus' approach are different yet yield superior quality returns over time. I believe they are sincere & have no malicious intentions.

RESPECT!!

And stncws is the Guardian of calvintaneng.

DavidTan08,
You'll have a better idea as time passes.

Or you can check calvintaneng's recommendations here https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
and https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/131750.jsp

Aiyo, you keep saying vague things, how other people believe you?

If you don't have evidence, you won't have credibility you know.

If no evidence, this is libel against OTB. Very bad.

DavidTan08,

The reasons are either:
(1) He is trapped, nid to promote to reduce his loss;
(2) he is part of syndicates;
(3) some men just want to watch the world burn.

What proof do you have that OTB is a con man?

When the price has increased so much, I think the stock capital appreciation rate will not be as great as the previous 10 years.

But I believe that high ROC companies are much much better than companies with mediocre ROC and certainly more worthwhile to invest in.

KYY GOLDEN RULE BROKEN.
Will KYY trigger a massive sell-off?
Stay tuned. Exclusively on Bursa Malaysia.

I'll try to answer Philip's question, I think the short term is not looking good for SAM's two divisions. Specialised machinery is a double-edged sword, I suppose, as SAM can only manufacture a certain kind of products. The pros would be economies of scale in products, while the cons would be inability to diversify into potentially more profitable products in future? But I remember SAM's business having high barriers of entry, shouldn't its business be sustainable in the long run, despite the slight negative outlook of the industry?

The negative news from the A&B planemakers seems to pose a danger to SAM's business, but SAM's recent track record suggests it is quite resilient. I think SAM would continue to grow, albeit at a much slower pace, as I trust this Singaporean management team.

I'd like to hear your views, Philip. Your analysis of businesses is very intricate.

Thanks balvin71 for your views! Apparently, Mr Market shares the same view as you.

LOL, using iceberg as analogy.
Wait til' you hit the iceberg and sink like TITANIC.

I guess, this is what "fundamentals have changed" truly mean?

The price of ARBB might go up due to goreng. Lucky ones might profit from such day trade.

But I don't condone buying into companies that don't have time-tested businesses.

If ARBB is really that good, answer me: WHY HASN'T ANY IB COVERED IT YET?!

Let me repost some unpopular but truthful comments. FACTS!

1) Net cash from operations still NEGATIVE.

Profit up but NEGATIVE CASH from operating activities in 4 QUARTERS recently? Profit 157.75% up but not RM1.00 cash received?

LOSS-MAKING Timber business suddenly become profitable IT business?

Ask yourself, is it TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?

2) Too damn fishy. Always report profit but did not receive the actual money

3) Supposed to be 34 mil profit but 12 million negative cashflow....payment not received?

I'm grateful for having a charismatic and passionate PM Tun Mahathir.

He loves his job so much that he will take all necessary steps to keep visions of his ideal Malaysia alive. Make Malaysia great again with 3rd National Car, unlike useless PM6 who only knows how to build MRT when you already have LRT & Monorail.

He is such a powerful figure, that no past or present foe is able to dethrone him. He even advises economic superpowers like USA, telling her President to resign!

He has a squeaky clean background, never being charged with financial scandal involvements, unlike Najib!

He is also a man of his word, always repeating his promise of handing over the reins to his long-time acquaintance Anwar!

Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. He even went to a conference with UMNO and PAS, watching Pakatan's enemies closely!

LONG LIVE THE GODFATHER OF MALAYSIA!

Barring any surprise from the upcoming quarter report, the worse seems to be over for AirAsia, in terms of share price.

I think SAM is down bcause it supplies part to Airbus. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/02/22/sam-engineering-plant-to-supply-parts-to-airbus/

Market is pessimistic over Airbus' business now and towards SAM too.

But if Airbus China is closed, wouldn't they transfer their parts-making operations to SAM?

I think SAM would benefit.

Net cash from operations still NEGATIVE.

Profit up but NEGATIVE CASH from operating activities in 4 QUARTERS recently? Profit 157.75% up but not RM1.00 cash received?

LOSS-MAKING Timber business suddenly become profitable IT business?

Ask yourself, is it TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?

But Pak Tua, this time is not a one in a billion plane crash like in 2015. This time, red flags are gradually raised.

From the huge unprecedented special dividend from selling planes to TF & KM's alleged wrongdoings in AirAsia India and Airbus, serious doubts are being raised on them.

Plus, the reduction of China tourists going travelling will definitely adversely affect AirAsia's revenue.

The only good points I see are:
1. Opportunity to pick up AirAsia at low, low prices since 2015.
2. Oil prices are down & airline businesses may flourish. (But I think AIrAsia has already hedged its oil prices earlier)

Mr Market has not finished its punishing of AIRASIA.

Market despises allegations on directors, esp those regarding wrongdoings.

I thought the drop had reached peak yesterday.

Now, AIRASIA seems to be in freefall.

RM1.00 may be a reality soon.

cut loss yesterday will kena today.
But who knows, CARIMIN may fall further 2moro

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3020521

Last year was 42sen.

Second Interim Single Tier Dividend of 43.0 sen per ordinary share!

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3020520

Slightly better earnings.

I am very happy. I expected AA to fall to sub RM1.10 levels. All is still well.

WB provides good advice

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-02-03-story-h1483019625-Good_Buying_Opportunity_for_clever_investors_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

!!!

"a dividend yield of 12 per cent seems to be the floor below which most stocks will not drop."

OTB has credibility, unlike critics who only know how to throw baseless accusations at him

a refreshing read!

stncws,

Sori bossku, but I kinda like this kaomoji. :P

EatCoconutCanWin,

My guess it that they might not know.

EPF might have dumped bcause they want to buy more at cheaper price next week.

If one week prior already kena kau kau, next week lagi jialat.

The question is not "Will it limit down?", bcause it would most probably will.

You should ask, "How much limit down will it go?"

Stocks will be battered and bruised, but live to fight another day

Resigning is not our Malaysian thing.

Anyway, all these bad news are not definitive. No one at AA has been convicted yet.

TF is still the best man to spearhead AA.

I doubt any other can adapt to the AA work culture cultivated by TF, nor understand the short and medium term goals of AA.

One man's meat is another man's poison.

To each, his own.

Different investors have different investing time frames, monetary limits and risk appetite. Thus, negative returns today may transform to positive returns in future, depending on one's selling price.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-be-hit-harder-wuhan-virus-sars-if-outbreak-lasts-long-%E2%80%94-credit-suisse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airbus-allegedly-bribed-airasia-airasia-x-rm205min-sports-team-sponsorship-secure-deals

You help me, I help you