Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

Investing Experience Advanced
Risk Profile Moderate

Followers

8

Following

0

Blog Posts

2

Threads

1,989

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
1,989
Past 30 days
0
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2018-01-03 20:55 | Report Abuse

Farge...whats ur analysis on kns selling? completed or still on-going?

Stock

2018-01-03 18:12 | Report Abuse

hope to reach 1.50 before CNY la...bagi angpow besar sikit

Stock

2018-01-03 16:04 | Report Abuse

Ekovest and Insas....canteeeeeekkkkkkkkkkkkk

Stock

2018-01-03 15:52 | Report Abuse

immediate TP is 1.50

hold ur horses....

Stock

2018-01-02 17:30 | Report Abuse

OSK looking to monetise some its assets which is good news.

This week Edge reported the potential sale of Faber towers.

Stock

2018-01-02 17:21 | Report Abuse

price not moving for days with big volume. wonder who;s buying

Stock

2018-01-01 12:26 | Report Abuse

I see Ekovest (in the long run) as a potentially RM10billion market cap company.

News & Blogs

2018-01-01 11:40 | Report Abuse

this is Herbert Chua's sister

News & Blogs

2017-12-31 11:35 | Report Abuse

why using PE of 12? care to explain

News & Blogs

2017-12-31 11:32 | Report Abuse

as regulatory requires the banks to set aside additional capital requirements, the bank's ROE suffers as a consequence. though ROE is still the key metric to look at in assessing the bank's performances including the credit rating agency, return on risk weighted assets is the more accurate assessment.

valuation wise, the implied P/BV would seems higher in view of declining ROE...hence the investment community may revisit the assumptions in valuing the banks, the average P/BV of 1.2 which many used as the rule of thumb to value the acquisition of a financial institution may no longer valid

News & Blogs

2017-12-31 10:53 | Report Abuse

Liquidity crunch was the main reason in the last financial crisis that made some banks go bust or almost bust.

With Basel III kicking in, more emphasis is placed on liquidity (refer Liquidity Coverage Ratio or LCR) and capital buffer for the banks to withstand during crisis times.

These days, central banks no longer look at the Bank's Loan to Deposit Ratio, it is the LCR.

Stock

2017-12-30 22:58 | Report Abuse

a simple gauge of JTiasa valuation can be obtained by estimating the value of their plantation landbank..and compared with their current market cap

News & Blogs

2017-12-29 22:02 | Report Abuse

Implied or Target P / BV = ( ROE – g ) / ( CoE – g )
P = Share Price
BV = Book Value per Share
ROE = Return on Equity
CoE = Cost of (Equity) Capital
g = Long Term Growth Rate

Stock

2017-12-29 15:14 | Report Abuse

yup, agreed with WiseEye

in the long run, eventually market would move accordingly to the intrinsic value

it will, but don;t know when, that;s what Seth Klaramn said too

Stock
Stock

2017-12-29 15:03 | Report Abuse

Lowest 15.94? is there a technical error??

Stock

2017-12-29 13:26 | Report Abuse

Really?

Anyone has inside news?

Stock

2017-12-29 13:25 | Report Abuse

when is share split?

i'll buy more then

News & Blogs
Stock

2017-12-29 13:03 | Report Abuse

Did anyone know if Dato got buy Hengyuan? Hahahhaa...just kidding

Stock

2017-12-29 13:02 | Report Abuse

Well, investment holding does not excite the market much. Patience is needed here..

Stock

2017-12-29 13:01 | Report Abuse

As mentioned by Contrarian...Insas unrealised gain on Inari is worth RM1.2billion.

Insas market cap is RM600million. It is almost DOUBLE!!

Unbelievable...the most undervalued/mispriced stock in Malaysia....

Stock

2017-12-29 12:55 | Report Abuse

Landbank
i) Land opposite KLCC (716/sq ft) v (3500/sq ft)
ii) Damansara Avenue (88/sq ft) v (500/sq ft)
iii) Bukit Bintang land (682/sq ft) v (3300/sq ft)
iv) Little bay cove, Sydney

Hotel portfolio
i) Radisson Plaza, Sydney (5 star)
ii) Westin, Melbourne (5 star)
iii) Aava Whistler, Canada (4 star)
iv) Swissotel, Singapore (4 star)
v) Swissotel, Kushan, China (5 star)
vi) Movenpick, Phuket (5 star)

Stock

2017-12-29 11:10 | Report Abuse

Hence, I am guessing the acquisition of IWCITY by early 2018 pace the planning made by Ekovest very well. Between 2017 to 2020, there are enough highway construction projects to sustain its growth and operating cashflow. Post 2020, they will be more busy with property projects down south. And with the collection from tolls continuing to grow, the planning made by Ekovest could be very sweet for investors.

As it is, now Ekovest is trading at RM2 billion valuation. The toll business alone is worth more that. It is buying landbanks at good value. How is that not good?

Stock

2017-12-29 11:09 | Report Abuse

Come 2024, there is however one game changer. What I do not foresee will really happen is happening. What is that?

There is an MRT link between Johor and Singapore, and it is to be ready by then. Why is this important? It means Singapore is willing to open up more (slightly). For so long, the causeway is the clog point for Johor to develop fast. It is a joke if an affluent or white collar worker to say that they are ok with staying in Johor and work in Singapore as the commuting is so bad that it deters them from doing that. With the new MRT connecting Johor at the checkpoint towards Singapore, that unbearable commuting is made more bearable. With that, the real property buyers (to stay) will consider buying, as compared to those who are only investing and not stay as at now.

The game changer is especially important to the landbanks surrounding that area. Who in your guess has the most landbanks and one that overlooks Singapore as well? IWCITY.

As one can see, the landbank for IWCITY or reclaimation rights for land are very close to the causeway - the main connecting point for anybody between Johor and Singapore.

Stock

2017-12-29 09:46 | Report Abuse

yep, when there's some shareholders value creation activities then investors will pay attention to this stock

Stock

2017-12-28 17:37 | Report Abuse

ricky, u dumb dumb hold how many counters?

i see titan, hengyuan, ekovest and what else???

Stock

2017-12-28 14:53 | Report Abuse

Drop below 1, i'll buy

Stock

2017-12-28 14:41 | Report Abuse

I see, thanks for info.

Just checked the news:
Khoo Nang Seng @ Khoo Nam Seng sold 15 million Ekovest Bhd shares from Dec 4 to 6 and is no longer a substantial shareholder. One of the company’s co-founders, Khoo has been with the company since 1985. He was executive director until he resigned on Nov 7 to “pursue other interests”. His resignation came just weeks before Ekovest’s annual general meeting, where he was due for re-election to the board. While his shareholdings have dipped below the 5% threshold deemed as substantial, Khoo held about 105 million Ekovest shares on Dec 6, which were worth RM98.4 million at the closing price of 93.5 sen.

Stock

2017-12-28 12:40 | Report Abuse

By the way, who is this kns? mind to englighten...

Stock

2017-12-28 11:30 | Report Abuse

No value is implied for Setiawangsa-Pantai Expressway, River of Life, highways to Klang and etc, property projects

Stock

2017-12-28 11:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Dec 26, 2017 08:18 PM | Report Abuse

why Ekovest should be in ur 2018 portfolio...a good and viable long term investment

1) Based on IWC takeover offer, theoretically Ekovest share should worth around 1.50. With the takeover of IWC, Ekovest will see an increase in landbank of at least 900 acres.
2) Duke Expressway (60% ownership) valued at RM1.7billion (based on EPF offer for the 40% stake). Ekovest current market cap is slightly above RM2billion. Do the math.
3) Strong orderbook of more than RM13billion provides earning visibility for the next 3-5 years. Today news mentioning a potential of another RM2.5bil.
Ekovest is prime to ride on the infrastructure growth in the country.
4) Catalyst to unlock its value - listing of its highway assets as REITS (potentially can fetch around RM3.5billion at a minumum)
5) In few years time, Ekovest would see more contributions from their toll businesses which will provide a stable income neutralising the cyclical nature of construction and property income. Highway operators = cash cow business.
Management has indicated a mix of construction (40%), property (30%) and toll (30%) in the foreseeable future. I see this a potential catalyst to re-rate it's valuation multiple.

Stock

2017-12-27 20:06 | Report Abuse

As of today, Inari is 3.42.

Insas pls wake up

News & Blogs

2017-12-27 17:58 | Report Abuse

richdad's call is highly correlated to Hengyuan's share price

Stock

2017-12-27 10:48 | Report Abuse

Ekovest is a good long term investment. Accumulating slowly.

Stock

2017-12-26 20:18 | Report Abuse

why Ekovest should be in ur 2018 portfolio...a good and viable long term investment

1) Based on IWC takeover offer, theoretically Ekovest share should worth around 1.50. With the takeover of IWC, Ekovest will see an increase in landbank of at least 900 acres.
2) Duke Expressway (60% ownership) valued at RM1.7billion (based on EPF offer for the 40% stake). Ekovest current market cap is slightly above RM2billion. Do the math.
3) Strong orderbook of more than RM13billion provides earning visibility for the next 3-5 years. Today news mentioning a potential of another RM2.5bil.
Ekovest is prime to ride on the infrastructure growth in the country.
4) Catalyst to unlock its value - listing of its highway assets as REITS (potentially can fetch around RM3.5billion at a minumum)
5) In few years time, Ekovest would see more contributions from their toll businesses which will provide a stable income neutralising the cyclical nature of construction and property income. Highway operators = cash cow business.
Management has indicated a mix of construction (40%), property (30%) and toll (30%) in the foreseeable future. I see this a potential catalyst to re-rate it's valuation multiple.

Stock

2017-12-26 19:54 | Report Abuse

any reason for the sharp increase?

the last good news i checked was Wilmar is to list their China operations in 2019.

Stock

2017-12-26 16:48 | Report Abuse

someone bid 18.48...wow

Stock

2017-12-26 16:13 | Report Abuse

17.48...any news?

Stock

2017-12-24 20:46 | Report Abuse

Liihen

Annualised EPS = 43.12sen
PE ratio = 8.8x
Net cash = 45sen
ex-cash PE ratio = 7.5x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 5.65 (<7)

Pohuat

Annualised EPS = 26.11sen
PE ratio = 6.97x
Net cash = 33sen
ex-cash PER = 5.7x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 4.93 (<7)

I'm invested in both.

Stock

2017-12-24 20:45 | Report Abuse

Liihen

Annualised EPS = 43.12sen
PE ratio = 8.8x
Net cash = 45sen
ex-cash PE ratio = 7.5x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 5.65 (<7)


Pohuat

Annualised EPS = 26.11sen
PE ratio = 6.97x
Net cash = 33sen
ex-cash PER = 5.7x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 4.93 (<7)

I'm invested in both.

Stock

2017-12-23 14:28 | Report Abuse

Average industry PE is 9x.

TP = 0.30 * 9 = 2.70

Stock

2017-12-23 14:24 | Report Abuse

at the end of the day, market perception also holds water...the qualitative aspects...apart from looking at the numbers the quantitative side..

Stock

2017-12-23 14:21 | Report Abuse

not sure how is the latest news going to affect the sentiment over this stock...

u just never know how the extremely emotional Mr. market going to react

Stock

2017-12-22 19:10 | Report Abuse

better run first thing next week...stay sideline and go in when the price stablises

Stock

2017-12-22 19:09 | Report Abuse

korean drama indeed....why so many mishaps happening one after another.

market confidence on this counter already low...now breach of trust...really no integrity

Stock

2017-12-22 16:42 | Report Abuse

what korean founder tangkap? care to explain..