gcke

gcke | Joined since 2016-09-28

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2017-07-07 16:16 | Report Abuse

@Felda_settlers they are ONLY good at throwing good money after the bad!.That based on historical reports and news rollout that we can obtain and read for ourselves:-(((

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2017-07-07 16:00 | Report Abuse

It makes me wonder why the Indonesian tycoons interested jointly to buy over the majority stake in FGV? FGV is unlike other plantation-based counters which have their owned planted acreage.With lands they can also monetise on the landed assets to reward the shareholders and investors like Sime,KLK, Boustead over time.FGV is without such landed asset is unattractive to normal and prospective suitors.Unless,they can buy at the discounted price.Just to venture a guess!

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2017-07-07 15:50 | Report Abuse

Basing on basic Financial Analysis(FA):
1.Earnings per Share(EPS) 8.70 and Return of Earnings(ROE) average,hope next QR can be better with the new Aluminium(Al) coating line commissioned.With better optimisation and automation will give improved ROE.
2.The company never failed to pay dividends for the past ten years.Last five years the dividend is 7.5-5.0 cents/unit which gives reasonable returns to investors.
3.This year with the good dividend and cash repayment payout it will gives the investors a dividend yields of ~11.45 %.Supeiror and unbeatable as company to what one can enjoy from the Fixed Deposit with banks.
Thus looking across the horizon and timeline even if the price drop,the investor has the cash payouts as buffer.Normally,the market will react very positively IF the company return cash money to the shareholders and investors.For example,as what happened to South Korea,Samsung Inc. when the cash payouts were announced.All the shareholders were very happy with the generosity of the company and the price trend upwards remarkably high.
4.Last year Profit After Tax(PAT) is almost 4-5 times better than the previous year.

OUTCOME: More positives,which can help sustain the counter price.

Basing on Basic Technical Analysis(TA):
1.The previous three days the price fell like waterfall pattern which caused the price to drop by almost 30.0 cents after ex-dividend(adjustment price for dividend payout).Today,the price trend reversed and a long white candle appeared with shadow which is good.That portends that there is room for the price to trend upwards.
2.MACD still hover at the level which shows buying momentum support even though it has reduced somewhat after ex-dividend date.Temporarily,anyway.
3.Moving Average(MA) chart show positive bias for the counter price.
4.Relative Strength Index(RSI) chart shows buying support coming back after a strong price reversal today.
5.Volumes high which is good in consonant with price uptrend.

Outcome: barring any adverse global marketplace events and geo-political risks the counter price will be well supported towards the cash repayment date.Expected to be completed at the third quarter.Probably,Sept-Oct.

Just to share.My views stand just for sharing.Cheers,to a happy day and wonderful weekend.Smile:-)))

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2017-07-07 13:42 | Report Abuse

@Dexter150185 the reasons were as followed:
1.France sovereign bond issuance 1-2days ago not well received by the market.Maybe their group of IBs not properly advised the gomen on the mix,yield and size of the bond.
2.Global Central Banks are tightening instead of easing for the past eight years.This will lead to higher interest rates.With higher bond yields the impact on the stocks were still not known.Normally,when the yields go up the equities will go the opposite way.
3.Rising geo-political temperature in the gulf,North Korea,China-India border's dispute over the road building work in Sikkim.
4.Foreign funds flows to the local equities market yesterday also in the negative because of the expected interest rate rise in US,EU.There may be another rate rise by US Federal Reserve towards the end of the year.

Outcome: The myriad not positive factors singly,collectively or severally have the immediate bearing on the stock market performance.

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2017-07-07 12:35 | Report Abuse

Probably, can go lower next week.Then can collect to earn some reasonable return from punting the share counter.

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2017-07-07 10:27 | Report Abuse

@terencefung90 no worry.The counter price trend and momentum look similar to MFlour..Any uptrend in the price at times can get derailed because of adverse and sudden global market news development.For example when North Korea recently tested the ICBM which raised the geo-political temperature in North-East Asia.
2.So long as the fundamentals for the counter is intact the price will gradually recover.

Outcome: For such defensive counter it is one of the top pick if the market sentiment is volatile.

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2017-07-07 10:23 | Report Abuse

The gomen priority and attention is towards the settlers not the investors and speculators (the latter two have to carry the investment risks themselves).Best and only proper if the gomen stays out from business-they make poor decision makers.Many examples abound:1MDB,MAS,Felcra,etc

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2017-07-07 09:48 | Report Abuse

No immediate upside for this share counter.Presently,the price will consolidate and move within the narrow range 1-3 cents for sometimes and awhile.Trading volumes for the share counter need to perk up for any upside to happen.
Just my thought to share.
We just hope for better and shiny days for the settlers and investors(speculators included0

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2017-07-07 09:23 | Report Abuse

Buy and collect for the brave ones-early DJIA and S & P Futures show US equities markets well supported.
More showtimes to come.

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2017-07-06 13:17 | Report Abuse

@Why_ there is no need for investors to write to FGV for confirmation?If the reported news is not correct,it is only correct and reasonable for the company to come out with the public statement to deny,and clarify.The duty befalls on the company under the rules on public listing if the reported news is material and can influence the price trend and movement .
2.As investors,we have to read,interpret and digest the news in the public domain.Everyone of us will not determine the news in the same way or manner.
We hope for better and sunny days.Not cloudy and murky days.Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-06 13:09 | Report Abuse

While contemplating on the news reported yesterday- on the proposed acquisition stake,something amiss which is troubling me.If the talks is already on-going with the two interested parties,would it be wise and important for the company to maintain a good image and put a tight lid on any internal boardroom tussles?
2.Why the boardroom tussle broke out in the midst of such prospective deals?
3.Something don.t jive here.

I am still finding for some answers on the topical matter of great marketplace interest :-(((

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2017-07-06 11:14 | Report Abuse

Global oil prices volatile with greenback strong.This counter has direct correlation with the movement of market-place oil prices.Speculators who can position and time their investment correctly will make money.

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2017-07-06 11:11 | Report Abuse

@AdCool my thought says there are many imponderables to consider which the investors like you and me do not have the access to invaluable information:.
1.Wilmar would not be a party to such M & A exercise IF it ever happen.One of the big owners in Wilmar would not want to be embroiled in share counter or company which is politically linked.Bad experience in the past will be enough for them to avoid such exercise.
2.One of the tycoons in the prospective deal is over-laden with debts for his plantation asset is making losses..Who rescued him in such situation by paying a premium price to own part of his company's share equity...everyone knows!
3.The big cash injection RM 4billion to re-take and re-own the landed asset back to Felda will incur a great cost to the taxpayers like you and me in the long run.Possibly the fund will come from somewhere..
4.There is too much hype on this prospective exercise.The bias will be in favour of the new shareholders and not to the investors.
5.Who will pay a premium price for FGV if it is a loss-making company and embroiled in a lot of corporate controversies? That to respond to @LOO99.
6.The price for the plantation-asset valuation in Indonesia to be injected may be inflated for such exercise...

Outcome- More negatives than positives.I stand to be corrected on the facts disclosed.

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2017-07-05 21:54 | Report Abuse

Two long white candle appeared in the last two trading days.Portends something ahed which is very positive.The price momentum is building up and the probability of the counter share price trending upwards is intact.All the Technical Price Indicators -MA,MACD and RSI support the bullishness scenario.

This observation is dependent on no sudden adverse global market-place news which will disrupt its movement upwards.

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2017-07-04 23:34 | Report Abuse

Insightful article and well-written.Must read- https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/6627/

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2017-07-04 21:29 | Report Abuse

@LOO99 agreed with you that merger exercise between FGV and Sime is a No Go.Additionally,to the reasons that you mentioned I would like to add further:
1.Sime presently realises now that it is not wise to put all the entities under Sime.The various divisions plantations,industrial,properties and others.The market does not give the company the premium price expected.Unlike other truly blue-blooded plantations company like KLK,UP, Genting Plantations,Batu Kawan and a few others.Normally,for such corporate structure it suffers from what is called as "conglomerate discount'.
2.Presently,steps have been mooted and taken to de-merge such divisions under separate companies.Can read through the various press reports.
3.Sime was highly geared when they took over NBOP some years back.Terms; Cash payment.Because of high gearing the share price hovered around 7-8 RM for sometimes until the company took relevant steps to lower the gearing ratio.Otherwise Sime share price would not have commanded presently ~RM 9.00 and above if such proper steps have not been taken to lower the high gearing(debts)..
Merging with FGV will cost a large amount of money and believe Sime would not want to repeat the similar mistake all over again.
4.Old legacy issues from FGV which would not fit into Sime corporate culture.The former needs to look into socio-upliftment and social-equity of the 120,000 settlers through annual payouts to Felda under the long land leasing terms(LLA) as explained earlier by others.Sime will be encumbered by such payouts which will be viewed negatively by the markets.
5.Corprate work culture different between two such conglomerates.
6.Others,...

Outcome: Stalemate, unless brave and difficult decisions are made by the powers-that-be on the dire malaise affecting FGV which have been dragging on for some years already.

I stand to be corrected on the information made.

Hoping for a better and cheery days ahead for settlers and investors-you and me.Presently,:-(((

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2017-07-04 18:10 | Report Abuse

Forget about the noises from the market-place.No worry about the rabble-rouser from NK.This despotic leader is a tyrant and despised by global leaders.But he knows the limit that he can go.Believe he would not be so foolish as to test the powerful military armada might of the Americans.He knows his country is finished once he crossed the red-line!.
DNEX uptrend is still intact.Just watch the price trend and momentum for this counter.
To all patient investors.Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-04 18:02 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately,not to sound pessimistic the price downtrend will continue for awhile basing on the Technical Price Charts_MA,MACD and RSI which do not look positive.Hopefully,stronger buying support to arrest the trend in the next few market days.

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2017-07-04 13:48 | Report Abuse

News on the domestic inquiry for those keen to know:- https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/6594/

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2017-07-04 10:24 | Report Abuse

Huhuhu...again like to remind that this is a politically-connected counter.At times, many past decisions make do not align with the market realities and moves.More towards social-uplifting of the 120,000 settlers which is the TOP priority!.Cannot shake this approach completely out from the company.
2.We have to give CEO and CFO the benefit of the doubts.Presently,there were a lot of finger-pointing to them for the poor QR performance and Safitex debts.Even banks have a lot of bad debts.And such debts are normally hived off after and allocations make for such impairment while steps were taken to recover the money.Debts recovery mechanism in place can be made similarly for FGV.
Anyway,let's wait for the domestic inquiry to be completed.If the outcome is not in favour of the CEO and CFO they can take the matter up to the Industrial Court.Then there will be another few months before the case is determine and adjudicated.
3.Similar problems and issues also affect other GLCs- not surprising,don't we.

Outcome: To overcome the present corporate stalemate which the marketplace don't like, it is best to go for win-win.Negotiate with them CEO,CFO equitably for the decent compensation to be paid to them for premature termination.At least it allows the company to move and steer froward.
2.Concurrently,revamp the BOD and top management and clear KPIs given to them to undertake.
Once thesis probable steps were made the market can react positively.We have to perceive correctly that the market does not like any form of uncertainty.

Cheers:-))) and look forward for the sunny days in the plantation estates.

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2017-07-04 09:57 | Report Abuse

Go,go,go 3A towards the peak.You have a big following behind you!.Don't disappoint them.Once at the top range price(~1.80-2.00) hope everyone can enjoy the majestic few and saver the fresh and crisp air.Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-03 22:13 | Report Abuse

For the seasoned Technical Price Chartists- observers cum investors, they will know that the share counter price will trend upwards or downwards before the next QR which will be around August 2017.Market moves or gaps up or if the investors perception that the coming QR is BETTER then its price will normally moves ahead of the QR.Likewise conversely if the coming QR is mediocre.
2. To profit,the investors have to make some effort to study the charts.The charts will guide in decision making most of the times.Even though not all the times when there are sudden upheavals in the global's equities marketplace.Like what happened recently for the technology stocks when Nasdaq trend downwards.

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2017-07-03 21:14 | Report Abuse

Likely the price will trend downwards tomorrow(as from the Relative Strength Index) chart.Unless strong buying (collection) support outbid the selling volume.Hopefully,then the price reversal from today will happen.
Let's see how the share counter price trend and momentum will play out tomorrow.
Cheers.

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2017-07-03 21:07 | Report Abuse

@philip31 agreed with your view.All supported by key Technical Price Indicators-MA,MACD,RSI.
2.MACD line is moving slightly above the Signal line(Red) showing bullish trend for the share counter.Confirmed by the Relative Strength Index(RSI) which signal buying support starting.
3.Probably,will re-test the RM 5.50 level reached last month on the way towards ex-dividend date.All other major banks shares are foppish presently.
Cheers,and look forward to strong price uptick this week barring any adverse global marketplace news.

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2017-07-03 14:49 | Report Abuse

Risk tolerance level- gains and losses for each and every investor is varied and different.Also everyone sees the opportunity and fear differently. Reasonable or good rewards come only to those who make some effort to know about the counter,update on the regular news announcement, keep informed about the global marketplace development,metal prices from LME,company updated news and many others.
2.If one were to follow the crowd,past experience showed the person will lose big-time.

Cheers,for better days forward.

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2017-07-03 12:16 | Report Abuse

@Felda_settlers whether you agree or not decision on whether to pay or not is governed by the Employment Act 1955 when an employee is asked to go on leave.
2.In all cases,the employer is paid in such circumstances until he is terminated,sacked from his present post or the final deliberation and decision is made by the company after evaluating on the show cause letter reply received.Even then due process and natural justice have to be uphold and accorded to the aggrieved person.The aggrieved person can challenge the ruling if it is unfair and unjust.
3.The market is watching closely HOW the company handle such matter.
4.When we are talking of share counter price performance IT does not depend on the person(whoever he is,however powerful) to talk up the price. If that is the case then such counter is not worth investing.Should avoid such counter totally.
Simply,going back to the fundamentals to command premium price in the marketplace do demonstrate good QR performance at regular intervals and uphold on good corporate governance.

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2017-07-03 10:41 | Report Abuse

@limch Bakke wouldn't want to come back to helm FGV if given a choice UNLESS ordered by the women.He was formerly from Felda.And he knew very well that the company is very much politicised and at many times the decisions made to be followed by gomen did not align with the market's forces and expectations.Apart from that the work culture FGV may not suit him or to his liking.
2. If I am in his shoes I will stay put in Sime- a well-managed conglomerate and performing.
3.Shining days for FGV can probably happen:- A. IF the total revamp is made on the BOD and top management:B. IF cost-cutting measures-perks,directors pay and workforce downsizing have to be done even though it may not be a popular decisions:C. If wastage,leakages,losses,impairment on investment can be mitigated and prevented if not bring under strict control.
Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-02 18:24 | Report Abuse

With the global oil markets stabilising chances for DNEX to stage a price recovery after the period of consolidation.Probably,a price breakthrough may happen next week to propel the counter higher.Analysis from global development and technical price charts.
2.This counter has a positive correlation with global price for oil or petroleum.
Cheers,to happier days on Monday onwards.

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2017-07-02 18:16 | Report Abuse

No worry,Monday will sees a rebound after two weeks of price correction and consolidation.This is probable consistent with the recovering global oil prices last week,better consumer and industrial activities in the USA.Also no adverse geo-political development which will derail the recovery.
Look forward to Moday opening.Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-01 16:59 | Report Abuse

Statistic data available is for year 2014 from MISIF.Trying to get the update one but not sure whether can get.
Hope that helps.
View- https://www.misif.org.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=79&Itemid=207

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2017-07-01 16:21 | Report Abuse

@xuewenapeng NO you are not entitled to the dividend announced if you buy on Monday.Monday,3rd July is the ex-date dividend.
2.You will be entitled IF you have bought the counter last Friday,one day before the ex-dividend date.
Hope that explained.Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-01 14:27 | Report Abuse

@yongwc270 yes,you will enjoy the dividend of 12.60 cents per unit if you continue holding on to the share until 3 August 2017.The ex-date for the dividend entitlement is 4 August.

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2017-07-01 14:22 | Report Abuse

@yaunlong57 thanks for the abridged facts on the market momentum and trend for the counter.Various outcomes can be made:
1.If the global markets and Bursa KLSE moves are NOT bearish on Monday(like for last Friday),then the support for the counter is still intact!.
2.But presently,KLSE is undergoing retracement and price correction as shown on the graphs.View; http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Stock-Chart.aspx?securitycode=FBMKLCI Expects the market to be soft similar to last Friday.Future on KLSE(from Bloomberg news source) shows the market will still be in the red- a fall of about ~ 8.35points.
If the prognosis is correct,then the Alcom counter(share price) will be somewhat affected.But the drop will not be large and since the counter is in the overbought position,the weak buyers or holders of the stock need to be shaken off before the next uptrend.
3.Along the way until the ex-date for the cash repayment which was scheduled to be in the third quarter the counter price will be well supported.
Believe the next QR announcement ( which is strongly expected to be better than the previous QR )will be before,after or close to the repayment date.That will help also to support the price.

Outcome: I will hold the counter to benefit from the cash repayment.Will just ignore the noises coming from the market.

Cheers:-)))

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2017-07-01 13:58 | Report Abuse

@kakashit no worry, let the institutional funds sell.This is not the only instance!.If you were to follow other counters the same pattern and action can be dissected and inferred.Sometimes whether it is a mere coincidence or NOT.One local fund sells,another local fund will buy! I am aghast and puzzled with their investment decisions.Whether they have been properly guided by fundamentals,market moves,proper data analytics,financial analysis or the selling and buying just on emotions.If the latter,they sure to lose big time.Let them lose ,we prosper.Cheers:-)))

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2017-06-30 16:53 | Report Abuse

@ding9007 the price of any counter will be adjusted on the ex-date of the entitlement of the dividend announced. Payment date to your bank account will be at a differentt date.Had also been explained by @The_Reds.