Brent crude oil > 90

Brent crude oil > 90

Oil rises to highest in over seven months on supply worries
By Stephanie Kelly
September 2, 20233:15 AM GMT+8Updated

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-snap-two-week-losing-streak-tightening-supplies-2023-09-01/

NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies.
Saudi Arabia is widely expected to extend a voluntary 1 million barrel per day oil production cut into October, prolonging supply curbs engineered by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known collectively as OPEC+, to support prices.

Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, has already agreed with OPEC+ partners to cut oil exports next month, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday.
Brent crude settled up $1.66, or 1.9%, at $88.49 a barrel. Earlier it gained to a session high of $88.75 a barrel, the highest since Jan. 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) had risen $1.39, roughly 1.7%, to $85.02. It rose earlier to $85.81, the highest since Nov. 16.

:D)

Heading to 55sen immediate resistance level

turbo charge

Uzma is on higher high” bullish pattern, the momentum is expected to propel the stock towards the MYR0.90 resistance, followed by the MYR1 mark.

Armanda debt continue declining via continuous repayment. With such strong quarterly cash flow, the speed of repayment will intensified as interest expense ia decreasing , it is expected in less than 2 year time, all debt will payoff and all profit will attributed to shareholders and maiden dividend payout may comw sooner in interim

Next q result will be much higher at least 2 to 3 x higher than current Q result after stripping out current Q one off impairment RM 18m

The decision to declare an interim dividend underscores our confidence in the
Group’s performance and future prospects. MSC has declared a first single-tier interim dividend of 7 sen per share in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2023 (“FY2023”).
This equates to a total dividend payment of RM29.4 million, translating to a
dividend payout ratio of 46% of MSC’s net profit attributable to owners of the
company (“net profit”) in the first six months of financial year ended 31
Decmber 2023 (“1HFY23”) of RM63.9 million

Our strong financial position and the resilience we have shown in
various market conditions enable us to reward our stakeholders while also
investing in our long-term growth and innovation strategies. Charting ahead,
we continue to execute our strategic plans to enhance efficiencies across the
Group to capture arising opportunities. We remain positive on the future of
the tin industry. The increase in renewable energy (“RE”) and electric vehicles
(“EV”) adoption, as well as digitisation presents an exciting time for tin. We
anticipate a growing demand for tin, with the metal emerging as an integral
component in the technology-era

bought back at 80sen for contra gain

Armanda role in Indo oil field is for contract work for topside platform development

sold at 92.5sen

bought back MSC at 2.21-2.22

sold back at 81.5-82sen

added more at 31.5sen

Bumi armanda NTA keep increasing via increasing assets and decreasing liabilities, with net assets increase RM 480m in Q2, far higher than profit record in RM 120m alone. Next Q, armanda NTA will hit RM 1.00

Boss stake in myeg is increasing.

Boss is accumulating

bought back at 50sen

dividend coming

Zetrix coin is not ordinary cytocurrency which lack of actual usage. Zetrix coin is COMPLUSORY use at China custom if wan to import goods from oversea for highly safety and efficiency Custome clearance

Morning bought back at 74-74.5sen

Boss known well MYEG will monetize Zetrix via an ICO (Initial Coin Offering) next month, big windfall is expected for myeg

Uzma Q4 deliver profit RM 10.6m or EPS 3sen, but if without take into account one off impairment RM 18m in Q4, profit will be more than double, Q4 EPS > 8sen

It is bias if only wish highlight positive factors and chart unrealistic continue elevated electricity price through locked in contract despite gas price have normalize and gov keen to boots up supply via massive import cheap electricity from oversea and refuse to accept downside risk

Key downside risk: sharper-than-expected normalisation in electricity sales margins once Singapore start import massive cheap electricity from Malaysia soon

CIMB estimate YTLP quarterly profit of RM524m, in 2014 before tapering by 10% in FY25F as we assume contracts get renewed at lower margins to reflect some normalisation in electricity and gas prices.

Current wholesale price have trim by more than 60% in Q3 if compared to Q2 and even lower than Q1 earlier by 20%. Wholesale price is real time reflection on spot electricity price and based on spot gas price. The lower wholesale price compare to contract price will eventually affect contract price to lower their price once due for renewal for every 6 month for short contract. YTLP overdependency on single power seraya profit contributor is too sensitive to any price adjustment downward forward.

added more at 80sen

bought mflour at 63sen

bought myeg at 81sen

sold back at 1.39

sold back at 1.86

bought back YTLP at 1.74

sold at 75.5-78sen

added more at 1.28

cut at 2.24-2.25 to swap other more momentum stock first

bought back YTL at 1.27

short-term charts of crude oil, natural gas — and even the entire commodity complex overall — are screaming "bullish"

added more hektar at 62sen

I have cut all gold stock last few days after gold price failed to perform despite Moody downgrade US bond

I have cut all gold stock yesterday after gold price failed to perform despite Moody downgrade US bond

I have cut all gold stock after gold price failed to perform despite Moody downgrade US bond

Uzma currently under technical correction after failed to challenge resistance level at 80sen.

added more uzma at 72.5sen to average down

bought maybulk at 31sen

The factual is 70% power generated is sold as contract 6 month-2 year, and 90% of contract is hedge.
The balance 30% power generated is sold to wholesale market and spot vesting contract.

The problem now is not because of sudden surge is gas price input cost, when already hedge, but is tumbling in wholesale energy and vesting sport energy price compare to contract price.

The actual impact on wholesale energy price will be more apparent in coming Q result, in which is wholesale price is skyrocket in April - 324 MWh, May - 492 MWH, June - 305 MWH, Power seraya is expect to reap billion of profit. But, what about following Q result when wholesale price half at 167 Mwh in July start to kick in and if persist for following month later? Profit margin will significantly decrease back to normalize level will prove in following Q result release in Nov 2023

Although YTLP currently have 70% contract rate range 6month - 2year and balance 30% on spot wholesale rate, But, as current wholesale rate 167Mwh is far below YTLP contract rate about 280-290Mwh, it will prompt many independent retail to offer much lower rate to win over retail market share. Many contract customer will gradually swap to much lower independent retail after theor expire contract.

These situation will continue persist as long as wholesale rate is significantly lower than contract rate, resulted lower profit margin forward. As, singapore intend to import more power from oversea, it will further press down on wholesale energy rate in future. Singapore will never tolerate current power generator to reap such extraordinary profit margin > 25% in future. The more reasonable profit margin for power generator should be about 10%, a acceptable profit margin for highly regulated power industries

deleum is cash rich oil and gas company, 60% of current market price is backed by net cash. Dividend payout is 50%, therefore, Deleum is good stock holding for stream of income with increasing trend based on increasing eps growth with increasing orderbook now at RM 560m

I also hold another stock Uzma, but with increasing borrowing/nil dividend due need to fund LSS4 and initial capex for all time high RM 2.9 billion orderbook, Uzma earning growth will be at higher rate forward.

Therefore, for oil and gas exposure, i had balance between high yield deleum and high growth Uzma.