add more jaks at 86.5sen

sold back AWC at 40sen

sold back supermax at 10.72-10.74

sold back krono at 59sen

The ranking of benefit cost among 4 type of shareholder

1. New comer intend to buy jaks at 87sen now + full subscribe right at 22sen + free warrant

2. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20 + intend to buy more at 87sen to average down cost + full subscribe right 22 sen + free warrant

3. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20, subscribe on right + free warrant

4. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20, opt to sell part of the holding at 87sen to subscribe right + free warrant

before right share
1. power plant net profit RM 200m will EPS = 30sen
2. share price trading before right is around RM 1.20
3. PE 10x will give target price RM 3.00, upside potential 150%

after right share
1. power plant net profit RM 200m will give EPS = 11.5sen
2. share price trading now around 5 share x 87sen, cum 8 right x 22sen = 47sen
3. PE 10x will give target price RM 1.15, upside potential 145%

Therefore, in conclusion, shareholder are enjoying similar potential gain upside before and after right by peg to same power plant earning, and same valuation PE 10x,

Remark: shareholder now is even can enjoy much higher profit if take into account 4 free warrant after right.

bought back all supermax at 10.46

Now the ratio change to more reasonable level, less dilution with 8 right for 5 exiting share + 4 free warrant, issue at right 22sen.

Such dilution can easily cover back by upcoming steady power profit RM 200m pa. With disposal of loss making property development, Jaks future profit will no drag down anymore. The claim against star is wild card if manage to win over.

As the power progress is at fact track since May, the upcoming Jaks should record lump sum high progress billing from power plant construction

I change my mind to wait for Jaks-OR, instead now accumulating back jaks that is now cum right in order to firmly entitle all right and free warrant. The reason is because anytime from now in Oct, Jaks will announce commecial operation of it power plant, cannot afford to lose out these opptunity wait later next month in which jaks-OR only start trading.



Remark: JAKS Resources Bhd will see a recurring income totalling over RM720 mil per annum over the next 25 years from its upcoming power plant in Vietnam, according to JAKS’ CEO Andy Ang.

The Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant which will comprise of two 600MW units, will see the first unit come online some time in Oct 2020, ahead of the original timeline of Nov 2020.

https://focusmalaysia.my/mainstream/upcoming-vietnam-power-plant-could-bring-in-over-rm720-mil-per-year-says-jaks-ceo/

bought Jaks at 87-87.5sen

sold back LCtitan at 2.57-2.60

sold back supermax at 10.74-10.76

Courting down time for Q result to release, re-rating pending

Weekly Resin Report: Higher Price Cycle Now Underway
Jun 30, 2020
Processors were again searching for very well-priced resin, but by the end of the week, most seemed to recognize that the stellar opportunities available just a few weeks ago were history

Weekly Resin Report: July Trading Starts with a Bang
Jul 07, 2020
Despite the Fourth of July weekend, participants still came to transact and closed a significant number of deals, as prices for polyethylene and polypropylene ticked higher.

Weekly Resin Report: PE, PP Prices Continue to Tick Higher
Jul 14, 2020
All commodity polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) grades added another $0.005/lb last week. Processors absorbed the June $0.04/lb PE increase in stride and the upward momentum has been sustained into July, bringing the next $0.05/lb increase...

Weekly Resin Report: Strong Exports Push Spot Prices Higher
Jul 21, 2020
The seemingly insatiable international appetite for North American resin has been driving export prices higher, which, in turn, has been supporting domestic resin pricing and producer increase initiatives.

Weekly Resin Report: PE Trading Slows, as Processors Reckon with Relentless Price Hikes
Jul 28, 2020
Polyethylene (PE) demand struggled to keep pace with rising prices last week and diminishing polypropylene supplies challenged some sourcing efforts, reports the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update.

Weekly Resin Report: PE Supply/Demand Balance Tightens
Aug 04, 2020
A series of turnarounds, outages, and delays coupled with thinning upstream inventories resulting from massive exports has placed the polyethylene (PE) supply/demand balance in a tight situation. Meanwhile, polypropylene inventories are at...

Weekly Resin Report: Another Price Increase for August PE Contracts on Table
Aug 11, 2020
Tighter supply/demand conditions and upward market momentum will lend support to producers’ efforts to implement yet another $0...

Weekly Resin Report: Outlook for PE Prices Remains Bullish
Aug 18, 2020
Producers’ collective PE inventories currently are at their lowest level

Weekly Resin Report: Robust Processor Demand and Hurricane Threat Impact Spot Market Prices
Aug 25, 2020
Strong demand and substantial completed volumes in the spot resin

Weekly Resin Report: Hurricane-Caused Disruption Further Tightens PP, PE Supplies
Sep 01, 2020
The added production disruption from Hurricane Laura further tightened already scarce polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) supplies. Several producers declared force majeure, which will apply continued upward pricing pressure on these already.

Weekly Resin Report: Spot Resin Prices Soar, as Trading Sets Hectic Pace
Sep 09, 2020
Force majeure declarations in the wake of Hurricane Laura and a compromised regional rail system limit resin supplies and send prices higher.

Weekly Resin Report: Stormy Weather Sends PE, PP Resin Prices to Lofty Levels
Sep 15, 2020
Prices for both PE and PP resins were already on the rise before Hurricane Laura and then jumped in chunks over the past several weeks. Meanwhile, more storms are forming in the Atlantic, with at least one targeting the Gulf Coast.

Weekly Resin Report: Supply/Demand Imbalance Continues
Sep 22, 2020
Widespread damage and ongoing Louisiana power outages in the wake of Hurricane Laura kept some polyethylene and polypropylene producing plants from restarting. The production shortfall has become more evident and the supply/demand imbalance more...

Weekly Resin Report: Processors Face Thinning Supplies and Escalating Prices
Sep 30, 2020
Heavy demand from both processors and resellers came up against insufficient supplies last week caused by...

add supermax, all at 10.56

cut bstead at 63.5-64sen, swap all to supermax at 10.56

bought back supermax at 10.56

sold back D&O at 1.10

lets upcoming Q result to decide the fair value for LCtitan

Many healthcare related stock either in glove, chemical, plastic, mask are all in multiyear high level. But, Lctitan, a main base feedstock supplier is still at low level, lower than its IPO price significantly.

Petronas chemical IPO price at RM 5.04 vs, current market price RM 6.06

LCtitan IPO price at RM 6.50 vs, current market price RM 2.35

Lctitan still keep most of its capital raise from IPO intact, still on track to expand 2x bigger capacity in 2 year time.

Crude oil price remain low due to most of the refine product are at low demand (jet fuel, Gasoline, diesel). Naphtha only form about 11% of crude refine product.

Petrochemical company import these naphtha from refining company to crack into resin product.

These resin product now is in elevated price and on high demand, supply to plastic maker, automotive part maker, healthcare maker (syringe, face shield, mask, swabs for nasal/mouth testing, glove maker (nitrite glove, vinyl glove)

Asia
Supply was tight in Q3 due to the planned and unplanned outages in Asia. The influx of deep-sea cargoes from Europe had also dwindled due to the resurgence in demand in Europe. Disruptions in BD supply in the US due to weather-related issues further curtailed global supply. Demand in Asia exceeded supply as the downstream synthetic rubber plants in Asia increased their operating rates following the reopening of most Asian economies in Q3.

Demand strengthened as economies in Asia reopened after their lockdown measures were eased or lifted following the decline in coronavirus infections in most Asian countries. The downstream synthetic rubber plants in Asia ramped up their operating rates to meet increasing demand for end-products such replacement tyres, footwear or industrial belts. China’s automotive industry, the world’s largest car market, continued to show increased sales and production, underlining strong demand for synthetic rubber.


Europe
Supply continued to be heavily cutback to offset the still very much below normal demand levels at the start of Q3. Some unexpected cracker outages also served to reduce any surpluses. Towards the end of Q3, there were signs of improved operating rates driven by improvements in spot export opportunities, particularly given the limitations ex-US due to hurricane disruption.

Demand slowly but surely started to pick up. Inventories down the chain were eventually drawn down and synthetic rubber producers were able to ramp rates up. Supply driven demand in Asia saw a pick-up in BD as well as synthetic rubber exports and sentiment in general was much more positive than in the previous five months.



US
Supply was largely sufficient to meet contractual obligations as demand remained subdued because of the pandemic. Spot availability was tighter because one of the largest producers, BASF Total, had its cracker down for a large part of the quarter. This halted export activity. BD production was mixed as some crackers had outages but operational units were yielding more BD than in Q2, when significant co-cracking was taking place amid sidelined BD demand.

Demand rose as tyre producers ramped up their operating rates, following widespread closures during Q2 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Replacement-tyre demand was stronger than expected as tyre producers replenished their inventories of after-market tyres. Demand for other end-uses such as nylon and ABS lagged as automakers were slow to ramp up their operations. Demand was strong in Asia, but tighter availability due to some unexpected outages halted US exports to the region.

No need insider, pastic maker already said clearly that their feedstock resin in on rising...

Resin price is now about US$1,000 per tonne, compared with about US$800 per tonne three months ago.

“This increase has spurred panic buying of resin-based products. We expect the sales of our flexible packaging materials to improve by 5% to 10% this fourth quarter, compared to the second and third quarters.

“From March to July, resin prices hovered between US$680 per tonne and US$800 per tonne. Resin prices have risen because of the hurricane season in the US that has halted the production and export of oil

strong demand for resin from the automotive, footwear and household sectors that have caused the ethylene feedstock price to stay high. We expect resin prices to stay firm until December

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/10/12/slp-sees-strong-demand-for-packaging-materials

Still have some time before Q result release, significant marked up price will happen, its a matter of time as cup and handle chart already form., bullish chart already affirm

Once cup and handle confirm, a strong marked up will follow, sending price to RM 2.80 and RM 3.00 later

Firmly stand above RM 2.40 is crucial to affirm cup and handle chart

The good thing about Lctitan is good corporate practice, uphold minority shareholder interest. There is no long term incentive that grant FREE share ,no cheap ESOS, nor private placement at discount etc to dilute shareholding. Management instead opt for dividend reinvestment plan to rectify public spread issue

Its a very bullish chart

The chart seem cup and handle formation

Price level is more important after Q result release. It will be re-rating price

slowly and steady moving up ahead of Q result

either as soon next week or by end month

awaitng for Q to release very soon

Power 'ON'

add all balance bstead at 64.5-65sen

Resin sale volume hike + resin price hike = Lctitan profit hike

sold back jcy at 74sen

Resin price is now about US$1,000 per tonne, compared with about US$800 per tonne three months ago.

“This increase has spurred panic buying of resin-based products. We expect the sales of our flexible packaging materials to improve by 5% to 10% this fourth quarter, compared to the second and third quarters.

“From March to July, resin prices hovered between US$680 per tonne and US$800 per tonne. Resin prices have risen because of the hurricane season in the US that has halted the production and export of oil

sold back Dpharma at 3.63

strong demand for resin from the automotive, footwear and household sectors that have caused the ethylene feedstock price to stay high. We expect resin prices to stay firm until December

Thanks choivo

Choivo Capital

Do you know the NETT impact currency on LCtitan? I assume weak USD is better for Lctitan as feedstock, naphtha is from import, USD denominated + production cost is locally (RM denominated) + sale is mainly cater for local demand, polyethylene for plastic maker in Msia and butadiene for glove maker in Malaysia. Lcitian did also some export of its end product to Indonesia and China, natural hedge currency. What do you think, is it right ?

bought back JCY at 73sen

2017
1. Margin spread of polyethylene-to-naphtha = USD 696/mt
2. Operating margin 14.5%
3. EPS 53.6sen

2018
1. Margin spread of polyethylene-to-naphtha = USD 614/mt
2. Operating margin 8.2%
3. EPS 34.6 sen

2019
1. Margin spread of polyethylene-to-naphtha = USD 483/mt
2. Operating margin 3.1%
3. EPS 19.4sen

2020 for 1H2020
1. Margin spread of polyethylene-to-naphtha = USD 493/mt
2. Operating margin - negative (inventory write down + turnaround plant + MCO causing local demand slump 50% etc)

2020 for 2H2020
1. Margin spread of polyethylene-to-naphtha = USD 600/mt
2. Operating margin + positive

Louisiana is home to many petrochemical plants and refineries, most of which are monitoring the storm before deciding whether or not to shut them down as a precaution.

Sasol, which has operations in Lake Charles, has activated its hurricane plan and all products loading was suspended at the close of business on Wednesday, according to a letter to customers.

Phillips 66 delayed complete restart of its Lake Charles, Louisiana, refinery because of the approaching storm.

CITGO is monitoring Hurricane Delta at its manufacturing complex in Lake Charles, Louisiana, according to a company.

Louisiana Pigment is planning on shutting its plant in Lake Charles today and releasing all non-essential personnel.

The following map shows the chemical plants in the area.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/10/08/10561252/hurricane-delta-shifts-to-the-west-lake-charles-chem-plants-in-direct-path

sold back at 9.64 first

Next 2 week is only time left for LTAT to formally offer privatization, 80sen proposal may be good, but 90sen sen also possible in view of great improvement fundamentally change in its subsidiary, pahramaniaga and boustead plantation.

Another round of free share granted to director ahead of call for cash under upcoming right issue. Second round of Restricted Share Plan (RSP) Grant of the Long Term Incentive Plan.

1. Ang Lam Poah get 1,500,000 free share
2. Razali get 850,000 free share

bought Dpharma at 3.44

Deadline to firm up take over offer in next 2 week

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/29/ltats-dilemma

add boustead at 65sen