Repetition scenario happening, when kyy posted articles to promote, its right timing to exit first. Come back later

Repetition scenario happening, when kyy posted articles to promote, its right timing to exit first. Come back later

Continue to drag down by local, otherwise, just solely from Vietnam IPP, valuation will be higher. Next catayst is commission 50MW solar power next year and potential new renewal power project.

In additional, favourable legal outcome against star will be leap up for jaks

Steady profit from Vietnam Power plant.

Next Q will be higher as Vietnam power profit is USD denominated strengthen US, translating into higher RM profit

Hengyuan share price started to outperform in accord to crack spread widen begin 27 April. Please take note, Hengyuan performance is highly dependent to crack spread = profit margin rather than crude oil price or inventory gain.

The huge jump in profit margin = crack spread from USD 16 to USD 29, remain intact and will only reflect in next Q. Therefore, current elevated stock price will maintain ahead of next Q2 result. Crack spread is KEY profit determinant alike glove ASP. Take note, glove profit deriving force is ASP, not the feedstock holding

RON 97 retail price is RM 4.70

RON 95 retail price is RM 2.05 + Gov subsidy RM 2.45

ROM 97 retail price is RM 4.70

RON 95 retail price is RM 2.05 + Gov subsidy RM 2.45

Here is latest petrol price for Malaysia, it Clearly show even crude oil have stabilize around USD110, but, a significant hike in petrol price is happening now, wider the profit margin for refiner

https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html

Here is latest petrol price for Malaysia, it Clearly show even crude oil have stabilize around USD110, but, a significant hike in petrol price is happening now, wider the profit margin for refiner

https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html

Even as the price of crude oil continues to rise—raising the input costs for refiners—refined products prices have risen more, increasing the spread and beefing up the bottom line for refiners.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products, which include gasoline, distillates, diesel, and jet fuel

Mr Sslee have quota example how gross refinery profit margin can be calaculated by taking one of the refiner product, gasoline as example as show below. Remark: Jet fuel profit margin is higher than gasoline
The retail price of RON97 petrol will be higher by 37 sen at RM4.70 per litre.
1 barrel equal to 159 liter.
Hence RON 97 is RM (4.70 x 159)= 747.30/ barrel
Usd to MYR 4.40
Hence 1 barrel of RON97 is USD(747.30/4.40) USD 169.8 / barrel.

Crude brent oil USD 112.5/ barrel.
Different RON 97 and Crude Brent oil is USD 57.3/ barrel.

These USD 57.3/barrel is gross profit margin, if take into operation cost, the profit margin will be USD 30/barrel = current crack spread

Even as the price of crude oil continues to rise—raising the input costs for refiners—refined products prices have risen more, increasing the spread and beefing up the bottom line for refiners.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products, which include gasoline, distillates, diesel, and jet fuel

Mr Sslee have quota example how gross refinery profit margin can be calaculated by taking one of the refiner product, gasoline as example as show below. Remark: Jet fuel profit margin is higher than gasoline
The retail price of RON97 petrol will be higher by 37 sen at RM4.70 per litre.
1 barrel equal to 159 liter.
Hence RON 97 is RM (4.70 x 159)= 747.30/ barrel
Usd to MYR 4.40
Hence 1 barrel of RON97 is USD(747.30/4.40) USD 169.8 / barrel.

Crude brent oil USD 112.5/ barrel.
Different RON 97 and Crude Brent oil is USD 57.3/ barrel.

These USD 57.3/barrel is gross profit margin, if take into operation cost, the profit margin will be USD 30/barrel = current crack spread

Hengyuan and Petronm, both will record windfall profit due to expanding crack spread margin+ huge stockholding gain

Hengyuan and Petronm, both will record windfall profit due to expanding crack spread margin+ huge stockholding gain

PetronM is third largest retail petrol station, just short close to Shell. It have being most aggressive expansion as recent Malaysia increase petrol station are mostly monopoly by PetronM.

Petrol station offer PetronM steady income as retail selling petrol profit margin is highly protected by gov subsidy

Upcoming PetronM result will be both increase profit margin on refining and higher stockholding gain

PetronM increase crude storage capacity by ADDITIONAL 500,000 barrel in Q3 2021 is TIMELY, as its stockholding gain will be close and comparable to Hengyuan already

1. Subsea Construction (“SC”) vessels at work in the Caspian Sea (Russian client, Lukoil), contract value is approximately USD50.0 million. Offshore construction work is expected to be completed in 2022. These is goods news against rumour Russian risk default due to invasion

2. Mumbai Port FSRU project is being progressed and we will make an announcement on further details of the project once these are available. Likely will be mid june

3. Armada Claire to be sold or scrapped in 2022. Significant writeback provision will record once it materialize as these vessel already fully devalue/fully depreciated last year 2021. Therefore, any value created either through outright sell or scrap for few million USD, will boost armanda cash hoard, allowing it to further trim USD debt, cut interest expense, up profit attributed to shareholder. In additional, any final outcome from legal course over armanda claire claim against client will bring extra bonus cash as interim court show Armanda entitle few million claim already

4. Since almost all non performing OSV already disposed off (only 3 OSV remaining which already fully integrated for own operation). Thus, for now onwards, Operations segment results mainly boost through continue trim down debt, reduce interest expense, boots up net profit + bonus through strengthen USD currency + commencement of new 98/02 FPSO end of 2022 + upcoming new contract from India
revenue and lower operating costs in Q1 2022.

The earning will getting higher in next Q result, why? merely due to strengthen USD as all it profit is USD denominated, use its operating cash flow in USD to trim USD debt every quarter, trim down interest expense, boosts up profit in RM, increasing EPS staggering up on every Q forward

Tomorrow will recover

In the year under review, HRC registered a profit after tax of
RM82.7 million compared to the previous financial year which
reported a profit after tax of RM251.0 million. Refining margins
and crude prices continued to remain volatile during the year
resulting in a full year average Current Cost of Stock margin
(CCS) of USD3.44 / bbl (FY2020: USD5.23 / bbl) and gross profit
margin of USD7.23 / bbl (FY2020: USD 2.68 / bbl) including
the effects of crack swaps.

Stockholding gains / (loss) for FY2021 (including the effects
of commodity swaps) were USD0.39 / bbl (2020: (USD0.50) / bbl)

Remark: Upcoming crack spread is above USD 10/bbl + stockholding gain USD 20/bbl， what will upcoming EPS?

Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad (HRC or the Company) stands tall as Malaysia’s third largest refinery in Malaysia.

• We process crude oil from Malaysia and all over the world and have the licensed capacity to deliver up to 156,000 barrels per day of petroleum products to customers, mainly in Malaysia and Southeast Asia.
• Presently, our business activities are focused on refining and processing crude oil,
refinery operations and maintenance, and supplying refined products to our customers.
• We supply through three channels: the multi-product pipeline to the Klang Valley and KLIA, our truck loading gantry for local (Peninsular Malaysia) customers and exporting to vessels through our jetty to East Malaysia and oversea markets.

4. Fourth, are the sanctions and unilateral embargos — also known as self-sanctions — on Russian oil. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a major exporter not just of crude, but also of diesel and semi-processed oil that Western refiners turned into fuel. Europe, in particular, relied on Russian refineries for a significant chunk of its diesel imports. The flow has now dried.

Europe not only needs to find extra crude to produce the diesel and other fuels it’s not buying from Russia, but,

crucially, it needs the refining capacity to do so, too. It’s a double blow. Oil traders estimate that Russia has shut down 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of refining capacity as result of the self-sanctions.

Who’s benefitting? The pure-play oil refiners, which are quietly enjoying record-high profit margins. While OPEC and Big Oil get the blame, independent refiners are cashing-in. The sky-high crack margins explains why the share prices of US refining giants Marathon Petroleum Corp and Valero Energy Corp have surged to all-time highs. The longer the refiners make super-profits, the harder the energy shock will hit the economy.

3. Third, and perhaps most importantly, refining capacity has declined where it matters for the market now, and the plants that are operating are struggling to process enough crude to satisfy the demand for fuel. Martijn Rats, an oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that outside China and the Middle East, oil distillation capacity fell by 1.9 million barrels a day from the end of 2019 to today — that’s the largest decline in 30 years.

The downward trend started well before the pandemic hit, as old Western refineries struggled to compete, environmental regulations increased costs and the unfounded fear of peak oil demand amid the energy transition prompted some companies to close plants. The fuel-demand collapse triggered by Covid-19 only turbo-charged the trend, resulting in dozens of refinery operations shutting down for good in Europe and the US in 2020 and 2021. New capacity has emerged in China. However, Beijing tightly controls how much fuel its refiners can export so that capacity is effectively out of reach of the global market.

There are four main reasons behind the explosion in refining margins.

1. First, demand — particularly for diesel — has rebounded strongly, depleting global inventories. In some markets, like the US East Coast, diesel stocks have fallen to a 30-year low.

Despite rising prices and fears of an economic slowdown later this year, oil executive say they see strong consumption for now. “Demand is not that easily destroyed,” Shell plc CEO Ben van Beurden told investors last week.

2. Second, the US and its allies have tapped their strategic petroleum reserves to cap the rally in oil prices. That has provided extra crude, which has put a lid on WTI prices, but it hasn’t addressed the tightness in refined products. Only a small fraction of the emergency release is in the form of refined products, and only in Europe.

4. Fourth, are the sanctions and unilateral embargos — also known as self-sanctions — on Russian oil. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a major exporter not just of crude, but also of diesel and semi-processed oil that Western refiners turned into fuel. Europe, in particular, relied on Russian refineries for a significant chunk of its diesel imports. The flow has now dried.

Europe not only needs to find extra crude to produce the diesel and other fuels it’s not buying from Russia, but,

crucially, it needs the refining capacity to do so, too. It’s a double blow. Oil traders estimate that Russia has shut down 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of refining capacity as result of the self-sanctions.

Who’s benefitting? The pure-play oil refiners, which are quietly enjoying record-high profit margins. While OPEC and Big Oil get the blame, independent refiners are cashing-in. The sky-high crack margins explains why the share prices of US refining giants Marathon Petroleum Corp and Valero Energy Corp have surged to all-time highs. The longer the refiners make super-profits, the harder the energy shock will hit the economy.

3. Third, and perhaps most importantly, refining capacity has declined where it matters for the market now, and the plants that are operating are struggling to process enough crude to satisfy the demand for fuel. Martijn Rats, an oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that outside China and the Middle East, oil distillation capacity fell by 1.9 million barrels a day from the end of 2019 to today — that’s the largest decline in 30 years.

The downward trend started well before the pandemic hit, as old Western refineries struggled to compete, environmental regulations increased costs and the unfounded fear of peak oil demand amid the energy transition prompted some companies to close plants. The fuel-demand collapse triggered by Covid-19 only turbo-charged the trend, resulting in dozens of refinery operations shutting down for good in Europe and the US in 2020 and 2021. New capacity has emerged in China. However, Beijing tightly controls how much fuel its refiners can export so that capacity is effectively out of reach of the global market.

There are four main reasons behind the explosion in refining margins.

1. First, demand — particularly for diesel — has rebounded strongly, depleting global inventories. In some markets, like the US East Coast, diesel stocks have fallen to a 30-year low.

Despite rising prices and fears of an economic slowdown later this year, oil executive say they see strong consumption for now. “Demand is not that easily destroyed,” Shell plc CEO Ben van Beurden told investors last week.

2. Second, the US and its allies have tapped their strategic petroleum reserves to cap the rally in oil prices. That has provided extra crude, which has put a lid on WTI prices, but it hasn’t addressed the tightness in refined products. Only a small fraction of the emergency release is in the form of refined products, and only in Europe.

PetronM

1. 740 station (+ 18)

2. New Dissel hydrotreater - capable of procerssing higherr sulphur which command lower crude price to treat into clean Euroo 5 Dissel

3. Additional 500k barrels storage, to meet growing demand and reduce freight cost through increase storage capacity and increase gain of inventory in rising crude price.

Flour user industry like bread maker in turn hike selling price as much as 30% to end consumer -
inflation

Mflour have trading flour division, inventory storage and hedge future price to profit uptrend price to protect input cost margin.

Malaysia flour price have hike since last month, cist pass through to flour user industry

Wheat price is soaring, mflour trading set to record windfall profit

PetronM, catch up

2020
Net crack margin: USD 5.23/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.50/bbl
Net profit: RM 251m
EPS: 83.66sen

2021
Net crack margin: USD 3.44/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.39/bbl
Net profit: RM 82.7m
EPS: 27.56sen

2022 Q1 (My Estimation)
Net crack margin: USD 10/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 30/bbl
Net profit: RM 750m (minimum)
EPS: 250sen (minimum)

During the year, HRC’s commercial team also managed
to secure a five-year term renewal for crude oil supply at a
competitive value with better working capital and extended
payment terms. This was made possible by leveraging on the
good relationship we have built with our established partner

Source of crude oil

2020
1. Malaysia 54.8%
2. Far East 14.9%
3. Middle East 14.4%
4. Russian 10.9%
5. Others 5%

2021
1. Malaysia 52%
2. Russian: 14.7%
3. Middlle East: 9.6%
4. Far East: 7.2%
5. Others: 16.5%

2020
Net crack margin: USD 5.23/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.50/bbl
Net profit: RM 251m
EPS: 83.66sen

2021
Net crack margin: USD 3.44/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 0.39/bbl
Net profit: RM 82.7m
EPS: 27.56sen

2022 (Q1)
Net crack margin: USD 10/bbl
Stock holding gain: USD 30/bbl
Net profit: RM ?
EPS: ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/marathon-mpc-q1-earnings-beat-115811192.html

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-diesel-shortages-lift-refining-margins-record-2022-05-10/

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/chinas-april-oil-refinery-output-plunges-two-year-low-covid-curbs-bite-2687426

KTM EDT Project is Progressing Well - Southern Malaysia (Electrified Double Track)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJU0_p8ztIY

YTL Power > Malakroff

Yewyin33

2022
Fed CPO 7,306 mt
Jan CPO. 8,887mt

2021
Dec CPO. 12,243 mt
Nov CPO. 13,529 mt
Oct CPO 13, 867mt

Remark: jtiada under very significant CPO production volume now. Despite, surge in CPO price now to from 4.5k to 6k now, Its next Q profit growth if any will be very modest due to slash in production volume by 50%

Yewyin33

Kindly check bursa annoucement, jtiasa every month will announce its CPO production on monthly basis to bursa.

You can compared jtiasa CPO production volume in jan and fed 2022 with dec, nov, oct 2021 CPO production volume

Yewyin33

Jtiasa jan and fed production volume is slumping down 50%. Increase in CPO selling by 30% now only can merely offset lower volume yield to record about same profit in next Q result.

Therefire, jtiasa wont record increasing profit in next aq result due to 50% production volume reduction

Jhm profit eps is comparable to D&0, but the peice is only 1/3 of it, worth for those keen to swap for continuous automobile LED exposure

As crack spread only start report > 10 begin year 2022, the real EPS imp[act will start report in Q1 2022, release in May. It is still early bird to buy hengyuan and Petron at current market price now.

Be an early bird before market maker jump in, best before May to report Q1 2022, EPS> RM 1.50 for hengyuan, EPS > RM 1.00 for Petron

kyy follow strict role, only invest company report quarter to quarter increase profit trend. kyy is key market maker of hengyuan in 2017-2018, when hengyuan and petron start report massive EPS > RM 1.00 each quarter, whichn in turn correlate to crack spread > 10

After waited for 5 year, the supercycle for refiner just about to repeat again

Hengyuan Euro 4 Mogas project is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022 will further boost its profitibility

smartly, kindly check 5 year ago histoical crack spread data and correlaate it with both hengyuan and Petron EPS. The massive profit for refinary kick in when crack spread begin hike above 10.